2017-2018 Blues Discussion Thread Part Three

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Put him on LW, along the half-wall on the power play, and have the rest of the team stop looking so bad and Steen becomes a non-issue. He hasn’t declined significantly, and shouldn’t decline to the point where he’s bad over the course of his contract. He will likely be pushed down the lineup by better players that are younger, but he’s still a top-6 player that plays good defense, leads, scores, and will be an asset to have on cup runs as a middle-6 scoring option.

Put him in a position to succeed and there will be no complaints about Steen. Get a legitimate 2RW and/or a shooting RHS for the PP and Steen will be as productive as he was before when playing with Tarasenko, Perron, or Fabbri.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

Steen is most certainly still a 2nd line winger, but I wouldn't call him a top-line winger anymore. His shooting percentage is low, and while +/- isn't a great stat, it's uncharacteristically low for him. I think this is just part of his natural progression downward, but that doesn't change the fact that he's paid to score, and unfortunately, he's in a sort of prolonged slump. I don't think he'll ever score 30+ again. He may not score 25 again. I just thought it was an interesting conversation between Wheeler and JR. I also agree with you guys that he's a valuable asset. I, personally, don't like the $5.75mil cap hit for a declining asset. I would feel better if that was a 2 year contract or a lower AAV.

 

[The Note]

Steen will be fine when he can simply stick at the 2LW and play his game. He is declining, but he's still a top 6/middle 6 player and if the Blues wanted to move him -which isn't likely at all IMO- they would have no problem doing so. The problem has been him being forced to play RW where he looks bad, and on the point of the PP which we all seem to hate but the coaching staff refuses to change.

 

[Celtic Note]

Could the Blues move Steen with his NTC? Steen would have to agree to a move.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

Could the Blues move Steen with his NTC? Steen would have to agree to a move.

I think he'd agree to go to some contending teams. I mean...you're not going to be able to trade him to Edmonton or something.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Steen’s play has definitely declined but I’d like to see him back at his best position of LW before I’d consider trading him off.

And he has a full NTC so he’d have to agree to any move so moving him would be extremely hard IMO. Best to just support the guy and get him back into situations that utilize him the best. Playing him on RW and the point on the PP are both absolutely not utilizing him the best IMO.

He likely has to stick at RW for now given the Blues big lack there after Tarasenko but I’ll continue to say that adding a right shot RW will not only fill that hole but likely lead to better production from Steen as it’d allow him to return to LW.

 

[Stealth JD]

I bet he'd waive to Winnipeg...and that young team would probably love his veteran leadership for the playoffs.
Not that I'd expect a deal between the clubs...but aside from the divisional situation, they'd be good trade partners in a Steen deal.

 

[David Dennison]

The salaries of the Blues' core is pretty stable for the next 3 seasons, and I dont think that Steen's contract by itself would stop us from acquiring a big money player. Stastny comes off the books after this season, Bouw and Carl the year after, but Allen, Petro, Parayko, Schenn, Steen, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Sobotka, and Berglund are all locked in thru at least 2020. We have a lot of young guys who will be no their ELC thru this time as well (Dunn, Thompson, Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin). Edmundson will get a raise after this season, but I dont think Fabbri, Schmaltz, Blais or Jaskin (RFAs during this timespan) will merit too much of a raise.

 

[Brian39]

There have been a number of studies that suggest that is not the case. There's actually been slightly more penalty calls/penalty minutes/power plays overall in the playoffs than during the regular season for at least the last decade or so. It varies slightly based upon round and game within the round, but overall it's definitely an increase.

IIRC, the one notable exception is during Game 7s (in any round) when refs call significantly fewer penalties than they do at any other point in the series, or during the regular season.

I can find and provide a few of the studies if needed, but they should be pretty easy to find via a topic search.

Interesting. I never would have guessed that because my eye test year after year after year has told me that it takes much more to get a penalty in the playoffs than the regular season. Any idea whether there are penalties per 60 or penalties per game? Continuous 5 on 5 OT could certainly skew those numbers. Penalties are rare in OT, but over the glass calls, too many men, etc get called at the same rate.

My theory is that since it takes more to get a penalty, players push the boundaries and bring an increased physicality and level of violence.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Interesting. I never would have guessed that because my eye test year after year after year has told me that it takes much more to get a penalty in the playoffs than the regular season. Any idea whether there are penalties per 60 or penalties per game? Continuous 5 on 5 OT could certainly skew those numbers. Penalties are rare in OT, but over the glass calls, too many men, etc get called at the same rate.

My theory is that since it takes more to get a penalty, players push the boundaries and bring an increased physicality and level of violence.

I've read multiple articles on the issue and I can't remember the specifics of all of them, unfortunately. I know for sure that the latter (raw totals per game) was discussed specifically. Can't recall if any of them broke it down into a rate stat.

As far as the importance of PPs in the playoffs goes, I don't think it really matters either way. The PP isn't devalued if a normal game's worth of PP opportunities happens over 4 periods instead of 3 since it still has that many opportunities to affect the outcome of the game. It's only devalued if the total number of PPs in the game decreases, meaning fewer opportunities to affect the outcome each game, which we know isn't the case.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I think the number of infractions committed in the playoffs goes up with the more physical and desperate play. But about the same number of actual calls get made. I think of Keith repeatedly slashing guys all over the ice. That’s typical of how the playoffs are called. What he did was not an unusual exception, in my opinion.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

JR just said on Kevin Wheeler's show that he feels the same that Kevin does in that Steen is no longer a top-6 player. That he needs to step up his game which has been deteriorating for two years now. He mentioned it could be his shoulder injury still lingering or making him hesitate. I think most agree that signing Steen was a better alternative to signing Backes, but Steen's contract probably needs to be moved this off-season to free up some flexibility. I know Stastny's contract comes off the books as well this season, but I'd rather have Stastny back than Steen at this point.

So, JR just said on Bernie's show now that he sees Steen's contract becoming an albatross if he can't find his scoring touch again. He admitted, much like most fans, liked that they didn't sign Backes to that contract and it made sense for Steen. He did go on to say that Tarasenko, Steen, and Stastny are all struggling this month (something like only 3-5 goals between all of them for December). It's $19.5 million right there...that is a lot of money for 3 really struggling forwards. I know we already went into this a bit here and I'm not trying to come across as a guy who rails on Alex Steen as he's definitely not the only player struggling right now, but it's alarming to me that JR keeps going back to Steen and his contract. I guess if Stastny was signed for longer, his contract would look bad too. I think Steen will come out of it soon, but JR is not one to usually lay it out like this on a player. So, his concern admittedly is making me worry about Steen.

 

[Shwabeal]

So, JR just said on Bernie's show now that he sees Steen's contract becoming an albatross if he can't find his scoring touch again. He admitted, much like most fans, liked that they didn't sign Backes to that contract and it made sense for Steen. He did go on to say that Tarasenko, Steen, and Stastny are all struggling this month (something like only 3-5 goals between all of them for December). It's $19.5 million right there...that is a lot of money for 3 really struggling forwards. I know we already went into this a bit here and I'm not trying to come across as a guy who rails on Alex Steen as he's definitely not the only player struggling right now, but it's alarming to me that JR keeps going back to Steen and his contract. I guess if Stastny was signed for longer, his contract would look bad too. I think Steen will come out of it soon, but JR is not one to usually lay it out like this on a player. So, his concern admittedly is making me worry about Steen.

Yeah his sudden harping on Steen is a little worrisome but as others have said, he's still playing at a 2nd line level. Does the team need more out of him? Of course but its not like we're paying almost $6 million for a guy pacing for 30-40 points. Any number that JR is looking at would say Steen is still a 2nd liner. He hasn't looked great doing it but that's still the level of production we're getting from him. Saying he's just a 3rd liner is hyperbole in my opinion. As far as the contract turning into an albatross, it could happen but I feel like that word is thrown around way too much when it comes to contracts of players that are just overpaid. I know 3 years is quite a long time in hockey but after this year, it's still ONLY 3 more years of Steen's contract. As long as he can stay above 40 points, contribute on the PK and as a locker room presence for the remainder of the contract, he won't be an albatross. JR talks about Steen's contract as if it's on par with Bobby Ryan which is far from accurate.

I am worried about Steen's contract a bit but I think worst case scenario, we're gonna look at Steen's contract as similar to Bouwmeester's now. Would it be nice in 2 years not to have that money allocated to him? Yes, but he's still gonna be serviceable and at the same time, expendable.

 

[Brian39]

I have mentioned it before, but I agree that there is a huge difference between overpaying a guy who is still cnotributing and an albatross contract. Steen has to decline a lot more before we move from into the albatross category IMO. Assuming it does reach albatross status, the Blues likely have a bit of an out.

We're probably going to have a new CBA for the 2020/21 season, the last year of Steen's deal. Hopefully there isn't an extended lockout for that season, but it seems pretty unlikely that neither side chooses to opt out of the current CBA when they have the chance in 2019 (which would cause the CBA to expire in September of 2020). The NHLPA is upset about escrow and the Olympics and the owners clearly don't like the increase of signing bonus money. The NHLPA declined to extend the CBA last year in exchange for Olympic participation, which tells me that they want to see a change sooner than later.

I bring this up because there is about a 99.9% chance that a new CBA will come with compliance buyouts like it has in the past. Both sides like compliance buyouts. Teams can get out of bad contracts, increased cap space means more/bigger paydays for free agents and some players see payments that don't count against the players' share of HRR. If Steen's contract gets as bad as people are fearing, we could clear out his contract with no cap penalty with a compliance buyout. I know buyouts aren't really Army/Stillman's thing, but we should be in the middle of a Cup window and I believe this ownership group would take a financial hit in order to clear a contract that is a roadblock to a Cup.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Important to remember that we’re paying Steen as much as Tarasenko this year and next ($7mil), even though his cap hit is lower because we pay him half that in his last year - and his NTC comes off the books February of that year making him a potential trade asset then. The reality is you can’t be successful in this league paying two guys $14.5 mil to play on your second line and produce like fringe top-6ers, contribute very little to your PP, and struggle on getting the puck into the zone and maintaining possession over more than one attempt. The money we’re paying Stas and Steen, in addition to Bouwmeester who is equally as frustrating given his price tag, are preventing us from improving right now by making necessary moves. That’s over $20mil for 43 points so far, which is unacceptable, leadership qualities or no. We need our top paid players to be our top performing ones, and that just simply isn’t the case right now. We have one of the highest cap hits in the league, and for us to be performing like this even without Schwartz and Fabbri is unacceptable considering we have two of the top 50 paid forwards in the league on our roster performing like garbage. I don’t like the length of Berglund or Sobotka’s contracts, but at least they aren’t hamstringing us from making necessary improvements like Bo Steen and Stastny are. You wanna get paid like a top player, you better be ready to play like one.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I still don’t s wen Steen as a problem. He’s playing his off-wing, moving up and down the lineup, and is being misused on the power play. Our entire team is offensively inept to the point that an unproven rookie can come in and look like the most dangerous forward on the ice for a game - completely turning around both Stastny and Steen.

We need to address missing Fabbri. Barns and company have by and will not stick. Now with Schwartz out, we are missing two top-6 forwards on a team that has always had an overpaid Stastny. Couple this with no power play and it’s obvious why the team is struggling as a whole.

Armstrong is reluctant to move anyone, which is great. But we can’t just bank on Tage - in reality we have two RW spots that need to improve if we are going to be a true threat this year, and the power play has to start being at least league average. DA needs to fix those things before the end of Decemember, not wait and see where things are at the TDL.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I still don’t s wen Steen as a problem. He’s playing his off-wing, moving up and down the lineup, and is being misused on the power play. Our entire team is offensively inept to the point that an unproven rookie can come in and look like the most dangerous forward on the ice for a game - completely turning around both Stastny and Steen.

We need to address missing Fabbri. Barns and company have by and will not stick. Now with Schwartz out, we are missing two top-6 forwards on a team that has always had an overpaid Stastny. Couple this with no power play and it’s obvious why the team is struggling as a whole.

Armstrong is reluctant to move anyone, which is great. But we can’t just bank on Tage - in reality we have two RW spots that need to improve if we are going to be a true threat this year, and the power play has to start being at least league average. DA needs to fix those things before the end of Decemember, not wait and see where things are at the TDL.

But any move we make needs to essentially be 1-1 salary-wise while being a net improvement to our team’s productivity. Find me someone who will improve our offense making as much as Gunnarsson or Bortz or one of our ELCs (or Paajarvi, Subdqvist, Jaskin et al... you get the idea) that the other team will gladly accept. We’re in a position of weakness right now, which is not typically when other teams come round offering to help our plight. Our roster doesn’t really have anyone on it that other teams are going to clamor for, they’ll be after our farm system or draft picks. We’ll just need to get lucky and find a team that has a cheap guy due for a big pay day that they can’t pony up for. That or they’ll be ok with trading a fringe-AHLer struggling to crack their lineup (like Kapanen), but inevitably, without our first this year, any trade we can make that will improve this team mid-season is going to hurt, likely involving one of our top 5 prospects. It’s a pickle, we just got unlucky with injuries and sever underperformance from our highly-paid vets. All of our roster resources are more or less sapped. Armstrong is more likely imo to just write this season off than make a desperation trade to try to rescue a sinking ship. And honestly that’s probably the right call.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

We have 5.5Mish in cap to spend at the deadline if we trade Gunnarsson. If we make a move now, we have around 4M, I believe.

The idea that trades aren’t made when your team is hurting has seemed silly to me - that’s literally 99% of time trades are made - when at least one team needs to make a change. Losing one of Thompson, Blais, Barbashev, Walman, or Schmaltz doesn’t destroy our farm and they could likely return a 2RW. Nyquist, Galchenyuk, and plenty of other players that we have discussed could be had for those kinds of pieces if the past shows us anything about the present. Add in what value Gunnarsson has having two years left on a cheap deal, and we’ve got the cap and the assets.

Then there’s the issue of the power play. There is clearly a coaching issue going on right now, and that doesn’t cost any assets to fix. I’m sure there are plenty of good coaches that are available that can put Tarasenko and Steen on the half-wall on PP1 and 2. It also doesn’t take a genius to move Dunn up and have players enter the zone with speed.

 

[simon IC]

I bet he'd waive to Winnipeg...and that young team would probably love his veteran leadership for the playoffs.
Not that I'd expect a deal between the clubs...but aside from the divisional situation, they'd be good trade partners in a Steen deal.

I've got it! Steen for Lowry. Steen gets to go home to Winnipeg, where his father played, Lowry comes home to St. Louis where his dad played. And I agree, Steen might waive.

 

[Robb_K]

I've got it! Steen for Lowry. Steen gets to go home to Winnipeg, where his father played, Lowry comes home to St. Louis where his dad played. And I agree, Steen might waive.

More importantly, where he grew up. Why do you think he has a Manitoban accent in English, rather than a Swedish one? He spent most of his youth there. Did Lowry spend many of his growing up years in St. Louis? I think his dad played longer for Calgary.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Blow it up and start the rebuild.

These guys don't have it. They quit when Schwartz went on IR. I can't see us making the playoffs if this is the level of hockey we muster when the chips are down.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Blow it up and start the rebuild.

These guys don't have it. They quit when Schwartz went on IR. I can't see us making the playoffs if this is the level of hockey we muster when the chips are down.

LMAO. If you ain't first you last.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Blow it up and start the rebuild.

These guys don't have it. They quit when Schwartz went on IR. I can't see us making the playoffs if this is the level of hockey we muster when the chips are down.

Glad you're not the GM. Team goes on a skid and you give up.

 

[Ranksu]

I wouldn't trade anything for rental. Let things happend in time. We have too big injuries in team that we would be real Stanley Cup conternders. Trading prospects or picks for rental would be mistake. I know Tarasenko, Pietro, Schwartz, Allen are their primes years, but... this is difficult when we don't have 1c.

 

[Dbrownss]

I wouldn't trade anything for rental. Let things happend in time. We have too big injuries in team that we would be real Stanley Cup conternders. Trading prospects or picks for rental would be mistake. I know Tarasenko, Pietro, Schwartz, Allen are their primes years, but... this is difficult when we don't have 1c.

We kinda do have 1.....