2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs Season Discussion - 49-26-7 105 pts

[zeke]

I asked you what you think the odds are, you answer by posting some numbers, then you later say well those numbers are wrong. WTF? Seriously. Keep going on about how these parties are "independent" and "objective" - is that supposed to somehow compensate for the fact that the numbers themselves are useless?

I don't even know what you want.

I told you how good I thought the leafs were. Borderline top-5 team.

You kept asking for a percentage chance. So i found some percentage chances for you.

 

[zeke]

OK I gotta run now but before I do, I'll just quickly point out that 9/1 isn't 11.1% and 10/1 isn't 10% etc. It's a rookie mistake, a pretty common one but a mistake nevertheless.

Cheers.

sheesh.

ok

vegasinsider = 12/1 (7.7% - 4th)
bodog = 9/1 (10.0% - 3rd)
betway = 10.1 (9.1% - 4th)
bet365 = 9/1 (10.0% - 2nd)

 

[PromisedLand]

hold, of course.

Oh we are going to have to very strongly agree to disagree on this one

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't even know what you want.

I told you how good I thought the leafs were. Borderline top-5 team.

You kept asking for a percentage chance. So i found some percentage chances for you.

LOL I don't "want" anything, I simply responded to your accusation that I was pulling numbers out of my butt when the only one doing that is you. Perhaps you've forgotten this little gem you posted earlier:

why are you changing the leafs % but not the bolts?

you have the wrong perspective when it comes to percentage chance of winning the cup. in reality, not TB nor any other team has anywhere near a 14% chance to win the cup.

the best teams will be somewhere around a 5% shot.

Note the part I bolded. You say around 5% without any explanation at all as to how you arrive at this, that's a textbook example of pulling numbers out of your butt. Not to mention it's vague, what is "around 5%" supposed to mean? Maybe 2%, 4%, 8%, just how much deviation are we supposed to allow for when you use the word "around"? Oddsmaking is a tricky business but one thing that's required is precision, would you place a wager if your promised return wasn't specified but instead "around" some number?

sheesh.

ok

vegasinsider = 12/1 (7.7% - 4th)
bodog = 9/1 (10.0% - 3rd)
betway = 10.1 (9.1% - 4th)
bet365 = 9/1 (10.0% - 2nd)

Ok at a glance it looks like you got the math right, very good. I hope you realize that still doesn't mean that's an accurate representation of what the Leafs chances actually are.

 

[MR4]

sheesh.

ok

vegasinsider = 12/1 (7.7% - 4th)
bodog = 9/1 (10.0% - 3rd)
betway = 10.1 (9.1% - 4th)
bet365 = 9/1 (10.0% - 2nd)

Just an FYI, betting organizations always lower the payouts compared to what they actually think the odds of the Leafs winning are. So while your 4 sources have an average of 9.2%, they'd believe it to more have an actual chance of probably around 7%

 

[Gary Nylund]

Just an FYI, betting organizations always lower the payouts compared to what they actually think the odds of the Leafs winning are. So while your 4 sources have an average of 9.2%, they'd believe it to more have an actual chance of probably around 7%

Plus it's possible that there's way more money being bet on the Leafs than any other team which would also cause the odds to shift. Normally that's not a big thing but this season with Toronto being the capital of the hockey world, the Leafs looking real for the first time in literally decades, all the (justified) hype around Matthews etc. and other exciting players that have captured the fan's imagination, yeah it wouldn't surprise me in the least if there were thousands of people who have been waiting for this for so long that they can't resist betting some "fun money" on the Leafs just to make it all just a bit more exciting. If someone told me that as of today, there was more money bet on the Leafs than the next 3-5 teams put together it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

All speculation of course but there's just no reason that I can see to have the Leafs as having the 3rd best odds as of right now. TB, STL and PIT are easily better, LA and NSH as well and after that there are so many teams in the mix so even if Toronto was say 6th, they'd be only slightly ahead of 10th. Oh well, may as well get used to it. I remember having this discussion with people a few years back when we were "3rd in the East baby" right before the wheels came off. Once the hype train gets going, there's just no stopping it.

 

[MR4]

Plus it's possible that there's way more money being bet on the Leafs than any other team which would also cause the odds to shift.

Yep, have heard this as well, I believe it definitely did factor into their odds making at least a little bit. Wouldn't want the payout to Leafs fans to outweigh the money that's come in from bets on all the other teams.

Really, I'd put us in the 2nd tier of contenders this season, which is why I want us to trade our UFAs this season. I really don't think 2nd tier contenders would trade 2 1sts + worth of value for adding JVR, Bozak and Komarov to the team for one season, so I don't think they should keep the 3 instead of getting the 2 1sts + back. Down the line, maybe even in the next season depending on acquisitions/progression, we will be a 1st tier contender, so we would be able to flip the 2 1sts + of value gained seasons ago for players that can push us over the top then. But I don't think our 3 UFAs can do that now. (Although personally I'd like to let Komarov play out his last year here)

And also I'd rather not go into an arms race against Ottawa who seems to be shooting for a Cup in this season and next before they have to retool after one or more of their big 2019 UFAs leave, ESPECIALLY with the top in the league contenders Tampa Bay also in our division.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yep, have heard this as well, I believe it definitely did factor into their odds making at least a little bit. Wouldn't want the payout to Leafs fans to outweigh the money that's come in from bets on all the other teams.

Really, I'd put us in the 2nd tier of contenders this season, which is why I want us to trade our UFAs this season. I really don't think 2nd tier contenders would trade 2 1sts + worth of value for adding JVR, Bozak and Komarov to the team for one season, so I don't think they should keep the 3 instead of getting the 2 1sts + back. Down the line, maybe even in the next season depending on acquisitions/progression, we will be a 1st tier contender, so we would be able to flip the 2 1sts + of value gained seasons ago for players that can push us over the top then. But I don't think our 3 UFAs can do that now. (Although personally I'd like to let Komarov play out his last year here)

And also I'd rather not go into an arms race against Ottawa who seems to be shooting for a Cup in this season and next before they have to retool after one or more of their big 2019 UFAs leave, ESPECIALLY with the top in the league contenders Tampa Bay also in our division.

Yup, agree with all this. You make a good point about Ottawa too, at the moment that's our best case scenario for a 1st round opponent and it would make sense for them to add another piece if they can and damn the future. Just imagine if we keep all our guys and then go out in the 1st round, what a nightmare that would be and it's a very realistic scenario. The good thing for us is that we're starting to come into our own as a team, our key pieces should be around for many years so there's zero reason to spend futures to win now when our top guns aren't even in their prime yet.

As for winning the cup this year, um yeah considering our most likely path to the final is through OTT, PIT and TB, 10% is an optimistic figure for us even getting that far, never mind beating whichever team is likely to be heavily favoured against us in the final. Who knows, maybe we put it all together win 9 out of our next 10 while allowing only 18 goals, then the picture would look very different. As of today though, we're like you said - maybe in the 2nd tier of contenders or maybe 3rd depending on how you define the tiers.

 

[Warden of the North]

Vegas betting odds arent who Vegas thinks will win, its Vegas protecting themselves in case the Leafs do win because so many people are putting money down on the Leafs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Vegas betting odds arent who Vegas thinks will win, its Vegas protecting themselves in case the Leafs do win because so many people are putting money down on the Leafs.

Yeah we have no facts as far as how much money is being bet on what teams but a look at the odds to win the cup seems to indicate that there's big money coming in the Leafs. I mean can anyone other then huge Leafs homers say with a straight face that ATM, the Leafs should be considered as the 3rd most likely team to win the cup this year? Something's fishy there.

 

[bobermay]

To finish the Calander year, we have 5 home games and 15 away games... Gonna be an important stretch for us... If we maintain a .500 record or better the rest of 2017, we'll be in an okay position the rest of the season...

In the new year we get:
January: 8 Home, 4 Away
February: 8 Home, 6 Away
March/April: 9 Home, 7 Away

 

[Warden of the North]

Im really happy with where we're sitting right now. Beating divisional opponents is absolutely key. Im also happy the Cali road trip is out of the way already.

 

[Menzinger]

 

[Daisy Jane]

i don't think it does at all.
i think ti was more of a "we'll pay you you hurt yourself on our watch you get some money, and then you can figure out what to do next year."

 

[Menzinger]

i don't think it does at all.
i think ti was more of a "we'll pay you you hurt yourself on our watch you get some money, and then you can figure out what to do next year."

If I were to make a speculation, management wasn't keen on signing him (hence no contract through September), but Babcock wanted him (presumably for the PK), but turns out as expected Polak looks like a worse version of himself and so doesn't want him anymore.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Im really happy with where we're sitting right now. Beating divisional opponents is absolutely key. Im also happy the Cali road trip is out of the way already.

I think I'm happiest about Andersen finding his game.

 

[Warden of the North]

I think I'm happiest about Andersen finding his game.

Indeed.

Seems that there is lots to be happy about of late.

 

[Censored23]

Indeed.

Seems that there is lots to be happy about of late.

Just saw this...

Andersen now ranked 10th all-time Danish scorer.

Danish NHL Players ‑ All-Time Stats

 

[MJ65]

i don't think it does at all.
i think ti was more of a "we'll pay you you hurt yourself on our watch you get some money, and then you can figure out what to do next year."

Well said Daisy and what if we run in to some injury problems? so he is there if and when needed - as is, he was without a contract and his contract is not hurting us in any way

So it's not weird in any way

 

[Kiwi]

i don't think it does at all.
i think ti was more of a "we'll pay you you hurt yourself on our watch you get some money, and then you can figure out what to do next year."

I think it was a we need help on the PK here's Roman to the rescue, whoops he's ******* terrible 5v5 back up to the press box for you

 

[zeke]

Leafs lines today:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Soshnikov
van Riemsdyk-Bozak-Nylander
Leivo-Marleau-Brown

Extras: Moore, Martin

:eek6:

 

[IPS]

Leafs lines today:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Soshnikov
van Riemsdyk-Bozak-Nylander
Leivo-Marleau-Brown

Extras: Moore, Martin

:eek6:

Love it.

Marner remains with Matthews, Leivo in over Martin, and Marleau back in at center.

And good gracious, can any other team in the league form 4 dangerous lines like this??? Our depth is f***ing INSANE.

 

[Mr Hockey]

We have 4 lines that can be offensive threats! we could also bring up Kappy, Johnsson, and Aaltonen and go with 5

 

[ShaneFalco]

Martin must be hurt

 

[zeke]

Martin must be hurt

Terry Koshan @koshtorontosun
15s
Andersen in goal tomorrow night. No health issues with Martin, Babcock says #Leafs