Speculation: 2017-18 Sharks roster discussion III - Offseason Edition

[Hinterland]

If they lose now without having those things it's because they don't have those things rather than a need to play a 4th line. Most Cup teams don't win because they roll four lines. It's them winning their matchups at the top of the lineup more than any other spot. The Sharks can win if Thornton is healthy and they roll three lines. If Burns, Couture, and Pavs don't go into beast mode, looking at them first if probably the fairest way to assess a potential loss and chances are even rolling four lines won't make up for that not being there.

I disagree. Blues lost against the Preds because of a lack of Center depth. Preds went on to lose in the final because of a lack of organizational depth. They know it and they reacted. Look at them now.

 

[Herschel]

Line numbers don't matter. Tierney is gonna play a lot no matter what. You need four good Centers if you wanna win playoff series. Fehr isn't gonna do it. And I disagree that the Sharks can't ice four scoring lines. Here's what I'd do:

Meier, Hertl, Donskoi
Kane, Thornton, Pavelski
Goodrow, Couture, Labanc
Boedker, Tierney, Hansen

While line numbers don't matter they do tend to correlate to TOI. I would guess that with your line up Tierney would see his ice tie drop 2-4 minutes per game while Labanc and Goodrow's would increase by a similar margin. You are going to have to walk me through how gives you a better chance of winning?

Truthfully, I couldn't even tell you who the Pens' 4th line centre was during last year's playoff run.

The Pacific's 4th Line Centres (aka Murderers Row)
Pierre-Edourd Bellemare
Eric Fehr
Nate Thompson
Derek Grant

 

[Hinterland]

he really managed to expose his own flaws in the most recent games we played against Minnesota and Arizona.

Sadly, those were some of his better games this year. Remember the times when he played Meier, Pavelski and co. 20mins per night with 4mins shifts late in the 3rd
...or when he doubled the 4th lines icetime trying to tie a game...or when he, despite pathetic play, didn't make a single change for 2,5 games just to all of a sudden start playing completely random lines changing every shift in a game that wasn't lost when he started his bs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I disagree. Blues lost against the Preds because of a lack of Center depth. Preds went on to lose in the final because of a lack of organizational depth. They know it and they reacted. Look at them now.

There are a lot of things to pin the Blues loss to the Preds on long before lack of center depth meaning rolling a 4th line in this context. Tarasenko with three points. Jake Allen being Jake Allen. Stastny only getting two points in those six games when he was one of their top forwards in ice time. Preds lost in the Final in large part because Rinne got exposed and Nashville scored squat in the last two games of the series. You can only pin blame on having or not a 4th line to roll when the team scores 0 goals in two games and your goalie sports a .888 save percentage for the series. And just how exactly do you think they reacted to address those things? And what exactly does look at them now actually mean because you don't really know if they made the correct decision by regular season success. It's about the playoffs and nothing the Preds did is going to save them from playing a team like the Pens again if it gets to that point for them.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Sadly, those were some of his better games this year. Remember the times when he played Meier, Pavelski and co. 20mins per night with 4mins shifts late in the 3rd
...or when he doubled the 4th lines icetime trying to tie a game...or when he, despite pathetic play, didn't make a single change for 2,5 games just to all of a sudden start playing completely random lines changing every shift in a game that wasn't lost when he started his bs.

The Minnesota game is when he played Pavelski, Meier and Donskoi for like 20 minutes despite the fact that they were playing by far the worst game they had played since being put together.

 

[Herschel]

I actually think the Pred's understood that last season the made it to the finals with poor centre depth and addressed that for this season.

They went into the postseason with:

Johansen - average 1st line C
Jarnkrok - below average 2nd line C
Sissons - weak 3rd line C
Gaudreau - AHL level
Note: Fisher being healthy would have improved this slightly

 

[Hinterland]

While line numbers don't matter they do tend to correlate to TOI. I would guess that with your line up Tierney would see his ice tie drop 2-4 minutes per game while Labanc and Goodrow's would increase by a similar margin. You are going to have to walk me through how gives you a better chance of winning?

Truthfully, I couldn't even tell you who the Pens' 4th line centre was during last year's playoff run.

The Pacific's 4th Line Centres (aka Murderers Row)
Pierre-Edourd Bellemare
Eric Fehr
Nate Thompson
Derek Grant

Cullen of course. And no, Tierney's ice time wouldn't drop. I don't see why. As a Center he's gonna get extra shifts anyways plus he's also playing PP/PK. During the playoffs you're not gonna roll four lines for the full 60' anyway. Depending on the situation you could for example bench Hansen/Goodrow/Boedker or Hansen/Labanc/Boedker

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I actually think the Pred's understood that last season the made it to the finals with poor centre depth and addressed that for this season.

They went into the postseason with:

Johansen - average 1st line C
Jarnkrok - below average 2nd line C
Sissons - weak 3rd line C
Gaudreau - AHL level
Note: Fisher being healthy would have improved this slightly

No, they went into last post-season with a healthy Mike Fisher. He didn't get hurt until the Conference Finals and that was only a couple games before coming back for the Finals where he actually produced well enough for his role on the team.

 

[Hinterland]

I actually think the Pred's understood that last season the made it to the finals with poor centre depth and addressed that for this season.

They went into the postseason with:

Johansen - average 1st line C
Jarnkrok - below average 2nd line C
Sissons - weak 3rd line C
Gaudreau - AHL level
Note: Fisher being healthy would have improved this slightly

Jarnkrok is absolutely garbage at Center though. Never ever a 2nd line Center. Much better on the Wing.

 

[Herschel]

Jarnkrok is absolutely garbage at Center though. Never ever a 2nd line Center. Much better on the Wing.

So even with Fisher in the lineup, who is an average 3rd line centre, they weren't strong down the middle. To me, they are a great example of a team that went far in the playoffs without being strong down the middle.

 

[Hinterland]

There are a lot of things to pin the Blues loss to the Preds on long before lack of center depth meaning rolling a 4th line in this context. Tarasenko with three points. Jake Allen being Jake Allen. Stastny only getting two points in those six games when he was one of their top forwards in ice time. Preds lost in the Final in large part because Rinne got exposed and Nashville scored squat in the last two games of the series. You can only pin blame on having or not a 4th line to roll when the team scores 0 goals in two games and your goalie sports a .888 save percentage for the series. And just how exactly do you think they reacted to address those things? And what exactly does look at them now actually mean because you don't really know if they made the correct decision by regular season success. It's about the playoffs and nothing the Preds did is going to save them from playing a team like the Pens again if it gets to that point for them.

These were all products of a lack of depth. Tarasenko is useless then he doesn't get pucks. He's not a playmaker. Also, if you only have one or two dangerous lines you're very easy to shut down. Stastny just came back from injury. Nobody expected him to have too much of an impact.
Look at Nasvhille's forward group. A lot deeper than last season and Tolvanen is also gonna join them. They can choose between Fisher and Sissons for 4th line Center. They talked a lot about depth and reacted.

 

[Hinterland]

So even with Fisher in the lineup, who is an average 3rd line centre, they weren't strong down the middle. To me, they are a great example of a team that went far in the playoffs without being strong down the middle.

Because of their defense and goaltending which is 2nd to none. They could have won a cup with Center depth.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Because of their defense and goaltending which is 2nd to none. They could have won a cup with Center depth.

Their goaltending was terrible in the finals and was the primary reason they lost.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

These were all products of a lack of depth. Tarasenko is useless then he doesn't get pucks. He's not a playmaker. Also, if you only have one or two dangerous lines you're very easy to shut down. Stastny just came back from injury. Nobody expected him to have too much of an impact.
Look at Nasvhille's forward group. A lot deeper than last season and Tolvanen is also gonna join them. They can choose between Fisher and Sissons for 4th line Center. They talked a lot about depth and reacted.

Maybe but that has little to do with their ability to roll four lines. Them not rolling four lines isn't what lost those teams those respective series. Them having depth probably doesn't change anything either. Playoffs are about how your lines match up with your opponents and if your top line isn't getting the job done against whatever they're facing, an ability to roll four lines isn't going to save you from probably losing that series. How any team's 4th line is constructed is irrelevant especially if the argument is that you're only going to use those 4th liners to occasionally take a shift with a top nine pair of forwards. There's no real justification to be made to make Tierney a 4th line center for the playoffs especially with how this coach has proven he will use his lines in the playoffs. Tierney has earned more than that sort of treatment. What they ought to do and probably will do is put their best nine forwards on their top three lines and sparingly use whatever is left and call them the 4th line but likely not use them often as a unit. Creating an actual 4th line and using them regularly isn't going to matter to the end result of any series. That's just not how the playoffs plays itself out.

 

[Lebanezer]

You're underrating the rest of the team. You can look at the Sharks team without Thornton, and with Dell as the starter, and compare them to every lottery team. Which lottery team are they not significantly better than? They're about league average, probably a little below without Kane, and probably a little bit above with Kane.

(Note that lottery technically means any team that misses the playoffs, but given the discussion, we're probably talking about teams in the bottom5-10 of the league.)

I think he (and the whole team) have done a pretty good job staying composed and winning games considering the injuries they've faced, but my concerns with DeBoer still linger and he really managed to expose his own flaws in the most recent games we played against Minnesota and Arizona.

Those 2 games were brutal. It's funny to me that he can be so hyper focused on winning and not see that what's best in the long term might also correspond with what is best in the short term.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

To address something like what happened to the Preds last year isn't something like bringing Fisher back for another late-season go. They lost for two reasons. Ryan Johansen got hurt and Rinne cracked. Who your 4C is won't matter when your top center goes out. Who your 4C is when your top center is in doesn't matter either to be fair. And obviously, the same applies to when your goalie falls apart. The best thing that Nashville did to try and account for that loss prior to the Finals was acquiring Kyle Turris. Who your 2 and 3C's are matter a lot more in that type of situation than what your 4C options are. There are very few teams in this league, if any, who can legitimately withstand losing their best center long term. Preds are not different even with getting Turris because Turris won't hack it as a top center either especially against playoff teams. I can practically guarantee that if the same thing happens where Ryan Johansen is out for a series again this time around that the Preds' fate will be no different regardless of their depth changes.

 

[Hinterland]

Their goaltending was terrible in the finals and was the primary reason they lost.

In the finals yes. But Rinne was mostly outstanding before.

 

[Hinterland]

Maybe but that has little to do with their ability to roll four lines. Them not rolling four lines isn't what lost those teams those respective series. Them having depth probably doesn't change anything either. Playoffs are about how your lines match up with your opponents and if your top line isn't getting the job done against whatever they're facing, an ability to roll four lines isn't going to save you from probably losing that series. How any team's 4th line is constructed is irrelevant especially if the argument is that you're only going to use those 4th liners to occasionally take a shift with a top nine pair of forwards. There's no real justification to be made to make Tierney a 4th line center for the playoffs especially with how this coach has proven he will use his lines in the playoffs. Tierney has earned more than that sort of treatment. What they ought to do and probably will do is put their best nine forwards on their top three lines and sparingly use whatever is left and call them the 4th line but likely not use them often as a unit. Creating an actual 4th line and using them regularly isn't going to matter to the end result of any series. That's just not how the playoffs plays itself out.

Yeah, at least three players are gonna play limited minutes...especially towards the end of games...but EV time is mostly gonna get evenly spread for the first +/- 40mins so why wouldn't you us four scoring lines until then? Tierney has played some very good games with the Danes. With a lead, they could shut down Boedker, Hansen and Labanc and put Tierney with Couture and Goodrow. In need of a goal, they could bench Boedker, Hansen and Goodrow and put Tierney with Couture and Labanc.

Of course they could also use Goodrow as the 4th line Center but I'd feel better with Tierney in that spot.

 

[Herschel]

Because of their defense and goaltending which is 2nd to none. They could have won a cup with Center depth.

Didnt you start this by saying that you need centre depth to win in the playoffs?

Needing centre depth is a call back to the old school thinking of pre salary cap era. It's no different than saying you need to have a Norris trophy caliber defenceman or a goalie who can steal you multiple games. The reality of today's NHL is that almost all teams have flaws which given the correct matchup can cost them a series.

 

[Herschel]

Yeah, at least three players are gonna play limited minutes...especially towards the end of games...but EV time is mostly gonna get evenly spread for the first +/- 40mins so why wouldn't you us four scoring lines until then? Tierney has played some very good games with the Danes. With a lead, they could shut down Boedker, Hansen and Labanc and put Tierney with Couture and Goodrow. In need of a goal, they could bench Boedker, Hansen and Goodrow and put Tierney with Couture and Labanc.

Of course they could also use Goodrow as the 4th line Center but I'd feel better with Tierney in that spot.

Because it doesn't get split up evenly. Your top players need to be given 1-3 additional shifts per period and these extra shifts are taken from the bottom line players. In your line up guys like Tierney and Couture.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah, at least three players are gonna play limited minutes...especially towards the end of games...but EV time is mostly gonna get evenly spread for the first +/- 40mins so why wouldn't you us four scoring lines until then? Tierney has played some very good games with the Danes. With a lead, they could shut down Boedker, Hansen and Labanc and put Tierney with Couture and Goodrow. In need of a goal, they could bench Boedker, Hansen and Goodrow and put Tierney with Couture and Labanc.

Of course they could also use Goodrow as the 4th line Center but I'd feel better with Tierney in that spot.

Because I'm only interested in playing the 4th line if they're playing against the other team's 4th line or if the game is pretty much decided as in up or down three goals at any point. Putting them in any iteration against another team's top three line is asking for trouble that is easily avoidable. But Tierney playing some good games was as a 3rd liner, not a 4th liner. His linemates by the time the playoffs come along shouldn't be in flux. It should be figured out and reliable. One of the weak points on the 2016 team was the fact that their 3rd line was always fluctuating. Had it been a more stable and more successful group, they maybe match up better against Pittsburgh who had three stable lines.

 

[Hinterland]

Didnt you start this by saying that you need centre depth to win in the playoffs?

Needing centre depth is a call back to the old school thinking of pre salary cap era. It's no different than saying you need to have a Norris trophy caliber defenceman or a goalie who can steal you multiple games. The reality of today's NHL is that almost all teams have flaws which given the correct matchup can cost them a series.

I said that the Sharks can only win with four scoring lines. But if you think that the Sharks can match Nashville's goaltending and defense then maybe 2 or 3 of them will do
Jones can stand on his head but I for some reasoän just have a little bit less confidence in the Sharks defense than in Nashville's

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I said that the Sharks can only win with four scoring lines. But if you think that the Sharks can match Nashville's goaltending and defense then maybe 2 or 3 of them will do
Jones can stand on his head but I for some reasoän just have a little bit less confidence in the Sharks defense than in Nashville's

The way they beat Nashville isn't going to be any different than the way that they beat Nashville two years ago. When each team and their individual star players are at their best, the Sharks have the higher end talent. Nashville still has a shaky third pairing which the Sharks do as well but it can come down to who exploits those weaknesses better. Nashville isn't a special team. They're a good team getting what is likely unsustainable goaltending at this point. Nashville will win if they stay healthy like any other team and Rinne manages to not crap the bed which he is prone to do. I certainly have more faith in Martin Jones than I would in Pekka Rinne. Everyone knows that he's playing over his head this year.

 

[Herschel]

I said that the Sharks can only win with four scoring lines. But if you think that the Sharks can match Nashville's goaltending and defense then maybe 2 or 3 of them will do
Jones can stand on his head but I for some reasoän just have a little bit less confidence in the Sharks defense than in Nashville's

If that is what you meant my apology I misunderstood you. However, you are still wrong.

From the Sharks to be successful they need three lines that can score and drive possession, with a fourth line that can be trusted to play 10-12 minutes and not get consistently killed, as in taking penalties or give up goals.

Also, while the Preds have a very special top 4 on the blueline the Sharks aren't far behind them, albeit they are constructed differently. I think many overlook how Braun and Vlasic are putting up significant 5on5 numbers, similar to those of PK or Josi. I still give the edge to the Preds because of Ekholm > Ryan.

 

[Nolan11]

You make a good point PF. Without our 1C we are mediocre as a team. That begs the previously asked question, with Thornton, Hansen and Ward coming off the books and the cap increasing to a projected $80MM what would be the max DW should spend on Tavares assuming he’s interested or would you guys just resign Jumbo for cheaper and obviously less term? The answer to that would probably have some effect on Hertl and Kane’s contract negotiations as well.

Assuming we sign Kane at 6 x 6 and Hertl to 5 x 5, Tierney for 2.5-3 bridge, we could bring Tavares in at 11 x 7 without having to do much cap clearing issues (buy out Martin, trade Karlsson for pucks). If we could get Tavares for that, we absolutely should (I expect he will exceed 12 per). With a bit more creative accounting, we likely could bring him in at 12.5 (but would need to deal Boedkker for sure).