OT: 2016 Redskins Part XII: We don't need no stinkin' kicker SEAN MCVAY HIRED BY RAMS

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Corby78

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I don't know why this is so difficult for people. He isn't a top 5 QB. At best he is 10-12 range. Contract wise that puts him right at 20.5 a year. Add in a bit for inflation and I wouldn't go north of 21.5-22 mil. He isn't worth Breese/Luck money, he just isn't. People who are claiming the cap isn't an issue aren't looking at the big picture. Eventually you run out of money trying to fill the gaps in this team. That 3-4 mil a year is huge upgrade on the OL, or getting a stud OLB. You can spread it out and use it as extra cash to outbid another team on two DLine guys you really want.

Sure we sit with like 70 mil in space right now, but some of you are wanting to spend money like my wife on Amazon.
 

Ridley Simon

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And everyone pretty much agrees that the red zone struggles had more to do with the dodgy running game. Iffy points here.



Again, saying the Skins have the tools around the QB to properly execute an NFL-level passing game is kinda pointless. How Cousins performs with the tools we give him is all you can really judge him by, and he's been top-10 these last 2 years. Conjuring dream scenarios about how he'd play with less or on another team or how another guy might perform here might be fun to talk about, but it's all meaningless conjecture at best.

We have the team we have. Cousins plays great with that team. Getting another guy that plays that well or drafting and developing someone to be as good or better? That's a VERY tall order that is pretty much impossible to achieve in short order. You want another indeterminate amount of years of cellar-dwelling football waiting for that to happen, or would you maybe concede that it's worth less than 2.5% of our cap to lock Cousins up now?



No, because they were his first two years. We had 4 years to evaluate him. If he'd escalated from 750 yards to 1,600+, that'd be a different conversation. But the reverse happened, so...



That doesn't happen unless you keep a guy around. If you don't pay him, he'll leave.



Not gonna get to any important games without a quarterback. It's kind of important. None of those guys just magically materialized at the Super Bowl. Sometimes it works out with a young guy (Wilson, Roethlisberger), but most of the time you have to invest in and develop players, and build a winner.

Letting your best players walk isn't the way to do that, especially not at a position that's arguably the most pivotal in sports.

Sure, Cousins didn't win the Giants game, but he's won some tough ones, including a couple as a rookie with everything stacked against him. He's got heart. If you want the Redskins to eventually win something, you have to start building around SOMEONE. If not Cousins, who?



This is actually a good example. The Caps paid Semin big dollars to continue evaluating him. It cost a lot to make that call, and it took 7 seasons over parts of 9 calendar years.

We can do that with Cousins if you want. He's played for us for 5 seasons now and has not only gotten progressively better each year, but that progression has culminated in top-10 status in back-to-back years. You can guarantee yourself another year of evaluation at 24m if you want. You can even tag him again if you wanna pay him 34.5m the following year.

Cousins reportedly wanted 20m last year, and the offer apparently topped out at 16m. Now that's going to cost us. We'd be lucky to pay him 20m now.

It's not always stupid to wait, and hindsight can be painful sometimes, but this is what continued evaluation costs. It cost us 22 million dollars over 4 seasons to evaluate Semin, and Carolina spent another huge chunk making up their minds. Turned out we made the right call, but it was anything but cheap.

So what's your threshold for paying Cousins? To fold your arms over a $4m disparity, let him walk, and start all over with a rookie? Another expensive year on the tag with maybe one less big-time receiver and still no running game? If Cousins still performs, what'll he cost then? How many times will it take to convince you? Did you really expect him to do more with a dodgy running game and no D? Won't you just continue to use these same excuses if he maintains performance and holds out next year?

The world ain't perfect, Rid. If you're waiting for a QB to deliver long-term performance and Super Bowls BEFORE you pay him, you'll be waiting forever.

The "we can't build a winner if we pay him so much" argument is bogus. Again, the disparity is MAYBE 4m annually. That won't decimate the rest of our team.



Alone? He's thrown for a solid amount of TDs these last two years, and his overall performance ranks pretty damn high. Again, the longer this debate goes on, the more you embrace bad comparisons and hyperbole. Your argument is getting LESS convincing. That's not how it's supposed to go. ;)

You are going a little too far down your own rabbit hole here Jags (red zone issues aren't a QB's responsibility?.....I bet if they were awesome at it, Kirk would be getting all the accolades for his 35+whatever TD's...instead of the 25 now. I also don't know who "everyone" is...the same posters that feel Kirk should get 25m a year? Also kind of odd that the play calling gets all the negatives here for red zone, but when it comes to all the yards the passing offense gets, the play calling isn't involved....no, that's "all Kirk"). I'm not going to change your mind, so while I've enjoyed this discussion, we are both getting entrenched.

Corby summed up my feelings above (he's giving a little higher tag # for a long term deal than I want, but it's the same point).

So let's see where this all goes.
 

Jags

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I didn't say the red zone issues were about play-calling. I said the running game was dodgy, which was pretty true regardless of the calls. Announcers sure liked saying "Fat Rob," but our running offense was in the bottom third and very hit-and-miss all year.

Throwing gets harder the shorter the field gets. It helps to run well so you can be less predictable. Cousins is good, but he's not a wizard. So yeah, some of those struggles were on him, but some weren't. And that'll hurt your TD numbers.

No one would really complain about 1.5 TDs per game as long as the running game was producing. 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls were won with quarterbacks who averaged fewer TDs per game than Cousins has over the last 2 years.

In the last 5 years, an average of 7 QBs per year threw for 30 or more TDs. So if you're going to insist that anything short of that is "not a lot of TDs," then you're insisting that he be top-7 or bust. In your book, why does he have to be top-7 to make more than top-16 money?

You keep moving the goalposts. Odd/fallacious views on stats, putting words in my mouth, Blake Bortles, Alex Semin, Alfred Morris... You're grasping at straws here, and yet somehow I'm the one down a "rabbit hole."
 

Jacoby4HOF66

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I am still interested in reading credible alternatives for the QB position if Cousins isn't a Redskins next year from those who think he isn't worth resigning to a big money deal.

Also, from the Detroit Free Press, talk of an extension for Stafford:

Stafford has one season left on the contract he signed in 2013 and, unless the Lions can convince him to take less money for the sake of the team, is expected to land a new deal that would make him the highest-paid player in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck holds that distinction, thanks to a five-year extension signed last summer that averages $24.6 million per year. Stafford's new contract could come in around $25 million annually.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2017/01/09/matthew-stafford-contract-extension/96352288/

If Stafford is worth potentially 25mil a year then where does Cousins fall? Not much below that, and, based on the franchise tag this year, not much, if at all, below 24mil.
 
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Jacoby4HOF66

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Staford was the league MVP before his broken finger and he's a lot more talented then Cousins.

Talented? Sure, but not sure about an MVP candidate. Need to lead your team to a win over a playoff team in the regular season to be in the discussion for MVP.

Regardless, I said Cousins should get less than what is reported for Stafford. But not much less. Lucks contract and what Cousins could get with the franchise tag this year and next has set the market. No way around that.
 

Ridley Simon

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I didn't say the red zone issues were about play-calling. I said the running game was dodgy, which was pretty true regardless of the calls. Announcers sure liked saying "Fat Rob," but our running offense was in the bottom third and very hit-and-miss all year.

Throwing gets harder the shorter the field gets. It helps to run well so you can be less predictable. Cousins is good, but he's not a wizard. So yeah, some of those struggles were on him, but some weren't. And that'll hurt your TD numbers.

No one would really complain about 1.5 TDs per game as long as the running game was producing. 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls were won with quarterbacks who averaged fewer TDs per game than Cousins has over the last 2 years.

In the last 5 years, an average of 7 QBs per year threw for 30 or more TDs. So if you're going to insist that anything short of that is "not a lot of TDs," then you're insisting that he be top-7 or bust. In your book, why does he have to be top-7 to make more than top-16 money?

You keep moving the goalposts. Odd/fallacious views on stats, putting words in my mouth, Blake Bortles, Alex Semin, Alfred Morris... You're grasping at straws here, and yet somehow I'm the one down a "rabbit hole."

People and that term "moving the goalposts". It's so over used.

I'm not moving the goalposts. My points have been clear, the entire time:

I don't want the Redskins to pay Kirk 24m or more per year in a long term deal. Period.

Doing so will make it a lot harder to fortify the team in other places, and I've said so many time. Period.

Kirk is not a good enough QB that you put so much of your cap % into him. Period.

You (along with other) disagree and try giving me examples of why Kirk is worth all that money, and that building a team around him, even him making too much money won't be a problem. I disagree.

You've cited your examples, I've cited mine. You believe in your stance, I believe in mine. You want to continue to brow beat me with your claims. Have at it, if you want. But this discussion is now turning into an argument, and that's usually when it's time to end it.

If you want to keep going, that's your prerogative. But nothing will be gained.

As I've stated numerous times, we will see what happens.
 

Ridley Simon

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I am still interested in reading credible alternatives for the QB position if Cousins isn't a Redskins next year from those who think he isn't worth resigning to a big money deal.

Also, from the Detroit Free Press, talk of an extension for Stafford:



http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2017/01/09/matthew-stafford-contract-extension/96352288/

If Stafford is worth potentially 25mil a year then where does Cousins fall? Not much below that, and, based on the franchise tag this year, not much, if at all, below 24mil.

Don't know who's available yet to determine the alternatives. Those are the hard choices teams make, and I trust they have back up plans in the case were that to happen.

On the flip side, who are these teams that are lining up to pay Kirk 25m a year on a multi year deal?

Edit -- I can only see:

NYJets, if they have the money available?
Chicago Bears if they can dump Cutler?
Cleveland Browns maybe?
San Francisco maybe?
Jacksonville if they move on from Bortles? (They don't spend enough, I wouldn't think)
Kansas City is they lose again early in playoffs? Would they even want too?

So realistically, it's the Jets. If they have the space. And if Kirk and family can handle all that NYC brings.

Very limited amount of teams, from where I sit. I know it only takes one, but it's not like he's going to have a dozen suitors. I'd say at most 2 or 3, not including Washington. It could be zero, as the Jets may want to draft "their guy" as they have a lot of holes everywhere, and aren't a QB away from playoffs.
 
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RandyHolt

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How many years of seeing young QBs leading teams to the playoffs, or even winning the super bowl, before drafting a QB is a viable alternative to a Cousins money bolt?

It was the system. No **** surely, and it worked.

RG3, Wilson, Kaper, Cam... it's not just dumb Luck. Cousins looked fine as a rookie and many argued should have been starting over RG3 early on. Sure, they may get figured out in a few years, but they do enough to win and buy a GM time. The latest of course, is Dak. Even Prince Harry gets many complements up in Philthy.

It's a new era. OCs have finally gotten their heads out of the *****, and dialed back their playbook to meet the strengths of their QBs. How many OCs have been ****canned over the years, for blindly calling their full playbook catered for the perfect quarterback? Countless.

If negotiations look bleak, I have a feeling Scot drafts a QB.
 

Jacoby4HOF66

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Noise earlier, but none now that I've read. Kirk had a little noise himself in regards to the MVP race, earlier:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/sto...four-long-shot-mvp-candidates-2016-nfl-season

And he had odds on winning back when that Stafford article was written:

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-odds

Stafford is more talented than Cousins, he went #1 overall for a reason, but as I said earlier whatever Stafford gets, if he gets an extension this off-season, Andrew Luck's deal from last off-season and the money Cousins will get with the franchise tag this off-season will keep Cousins salary demands right around 24mil a year. And with said franchise number this year (24mil) and the franchise number next year (32mil) he won't settle for less.
 

Jacoby4HOF66

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Don't know who's available yet to determine the alternatives. Those are the hard choices teams make, and I trust they have back up plans in the case were that to happen.

On the flip side, who are these teams that are lining up to pay Kirk 25m a year on a multi year deal?

Edit -- I can only see:

NYJets, if they have the money available?
Chicago Bears if they can dump Cutler?
Cleveland Browns maybe?
San Francisco maybe?
Jacksonville if they move on from Bortles? (They don't spend enough, I wouldn't think)
Kansas City is they lose again early in playoffs? Would they even want too?

So realistically, it's the Jets. If they have the space. And if Kirk and family can handle all that NYC brings.

Very limited amount of teams, from where I sit. I know it only takes one, but it's not like he's going to have a dozen suitors. I'd say at most 2 or 3, not including Washington. It could be zero, as the Jets may want to draft "their guy" as they have a lot of holes everywhere, and aren't a QB away from playoffs.

If Kyle Shanahan gets a HC job with a team without an established QB that team will pay Cousins 24mil a year. No doubt.

As for alternatives for Cousins, pickings are slim but you should be able to come up with a list. Both FA and the draft.
 

Caps Circle

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I don't think there's any doubt that Cousins won't get paid on the open market. But that doesn't mean anything. Brock got paid on the open market without anything near the numbers Kirk has, and Houston has regretted it.

Kirk is the best QB we've had since Brunell. Easily. But I don't think he's proven that he's for sure our franchise QB. Just look at how he folded down the home stretch. The D kept us in the games vs. Carolina and NYG, but our super-talented offense failed. And that's on Kirk.

Tag him again. See how he does with an overall better team. By then a tag would probably be about 33 mil, making it useless. That's when we would be better-situated to make a call on if he's the QB of the future, or whether Sundberg or someone else should be given the opportunity.
 

g00n

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If Kyle Shanahan gets a HC job with a team without an established QB that team will pay Cousins 24mil a year. No doubt.

As for alternatives for Cousins, pickings are slim but you should be able to come up with a list. Both FA and the draft.

Hmmm...Kyle and Kirk both to Denver?
 

Jacoby4HOF66

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John Keim has a post up about Pettine. Good read and Keim includes an interesting quote from a previous SI article on Pettine:

This is one of the ways he likes to build a defense, related from an informative story in Sports Illustrated about him:

"One of the rules we had was you never wanted to be limited by your least intelligent player," Pettine says. "You have to do it that way because if you have a guy that can be elite but he can't be cluttered, like when we got Kris Jenkins in New York for a limited amount of time -- when we had him, we didn't want him thinking. We would build it like, 'Hey, line up here and go, and we'll make it right around you.' We'll give the thinking to the guys around you. We've put some of the heavy-lifting thinking on a fewer number of players."

One thing that also jumped out from that story: The idea that he doesn't just teach the plays of the defense, but the actual concepts of the scheme. It allows players to change roles from game to game, but if they understand the rules of the defense it shouldn't lead to confusion. Of course, it works better with increased talent. But what the Redskins need to do is find someone who can coax more from the talent available.

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington...w-mike-pettine-for-defensive-coordinators-job

I like the sound of that.
 

Ridley Simon

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If Kyle Shanahan gets a HC job with a team without an established QB that team will pay Cousins 24mil a year. No doubt.

As for alternatives for Cousins, pickings are slim but you should be able to come up with a list. Both FA and the draft.

I see. "You come up with a list....but I won't". But even better.....

I love the fallacy of this thought process. "If you can't come up with a better idea, well, you'd better get in line with the groupthink, buddy!!"

NeverMind that my day job has zero to do with football or the NFL. And I'm sure neither does yours. Who cares what our ideas are? Every year QB's change teams, and new starters come from nowhere.

Did anyone think Dak Prescott would lead the best team in the NFC, as a rookie? Anyone?

Ok, WetHog.
 

Jacoby4HOF66

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I see. "You come up with a list....but I won't". But even better.....

I love the fallacy of this thought process. "If you can't come up with a better idea, well, you'd better get in line with the groupthink, buddy!!"

NeverMind that my day job has zero to do with football or the NFL. And I'm sure neither does yours. Who cares what our ideas are? Every year QB's change teams, and new starters come from nowhere.

Did anyone think Dak Prescott would lead the best team in the NFC, as a rookie? Anyone?

Ok, WetHog.

I could give a **** about group think. Everyone with the same opinion would be very boring, but for the sake of the discussion what is the alternative to Cousins? For me there isn't but for someone like you, who would let Cousins walk unless he took a salary lower than Osweiler, one would think you would have an idea on alternatives to Cousins. Well?

No one thought Prescott would do what he did just like no one thought Griffin would do what he did his rookie year. So what? Are you suggesting the Skins **** away more draft picks on a rookie QB? Ok, on who?
 

Jacoby4HOF66

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Quick google search reveals this list of 2017 QB prospects. It seems accurate:

1. DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
2. Mitch Trubisky*, QB, North Carolina
3. Pat Mahomes*, QB, Texas Tech
4. Deshaun Watson*, QB, Clemson
5. Davis Webb, QB, California
6. Jerod Evans*, QB, Virginia Tech
7. Brad Kaaya*, QB, Miami
8. Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss
9. Antonio Pipkin, QB, Tiffin
10. Seth Russell, QB, Baylor

8 more on the list plus write ups for all of them here:

https://walterfootball.com/draft2017QB.php

I like Trubisky and Watson but they won't be around at 17, or shouldn't. I wouldn't mind seeing a mid to late round pick used on Chad Kelly. HOF uncle and the guy plays with an attitude. Did tear an ACL late in the season though.

See, that wasn't hard.
 

RandyHolt

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Let's say you are a GM, and Cousins and his agent say if you tag us we are 100% gone next year right before the draft, would you support Scot drafting a QB?

What is their consensus on Sudfeld - cut from the Big Ben mold physically; I think their feelings on him dictate whether we draft a QB or not.

I do, and think it would be wise. If they don't see Sudfeld panning out. Scot and GMs can fix the D through free agency because we have the cap room. Regardless, defenses do not need to be built through the draft.

Look at his defensive guys drafted last year. Ionniddes, Cravens, Fuller... showed some promise, but that is about it.

I thought the Cousins 4th round selection was dumb, redundant; a wasted pick. But I like a clipboard guy with upside always milling around.
 
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