2016 Draft Discussion IV

[TML1967]

I think we moved up to grab Schenn

We gave up a 2nd and 3rd of NYI's choice

(if they chose the 2nd that year, then the 3rd was the following year, or if they took the 3rd that year, they'd get our 2nd the following year)

Thats a pretty good return to move up a few spots. If your Toronto this year at 4 or 5 (assuming no ones moving a top 3) would you do 4 or 5 for 7+37+67? Id be tempted (if the deals out there)

 

[WTFMAN99]

Thats a pretty good return to move up a few spots. If your Toronto this year at 4 or 5 (assuming no ones moving a top 3) would you do 4 or 5 for 7+37+67? Id be tempted (if the deals out there)

That is awfully tough. If you could guarantee me Sergachev would be there...

It's Chychrun versus Sergachev, (possibly) Hart, and a 3rd rounder (don't know who could be available there)

 

[4thline]

Thats a pretty good return to move up a few spots. If your Toronto this year at 4 or 5 (assuming no ones moving a top 3) would you do 4 or 5 for 7+37+67? Id be tempted (if the deals out there)

Weren't asking me, but pretty much instant yes. Personally I'm pretty much indifferent between 7 players from 4-10, with a couple more on the bubble.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Your probably right, I just cant think of many recent deals to compare it too.

When was the last time a top 5 pick was moved down a few spots, and what was the return?

Last draft, it's been speculated, that we had a deal in place with CLB to move down to 8 if Marner went 3rd. If memory serves correct (and it often doesnt) we would have received #34 + #38 + #60something.

 

[TML1967]

I like the idea, mostly as part of a double package, if we dont get Pits pick. Move our second and the new second to move into the first round.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I have no idea why, but I feel like the steal of the draft is going to be Gauthier. That blend of size and skill might turn out to be Benn-like in the future. If he drops and Serga or Juolevi are already off the table with the Pitts pick, I would love to snag him.

I feel the same about Gauthier. His game should translate well to the pros. He'd look good next to Nylander imho. He could be a Cory Perry caliber winger.

 

[Rielly4]

honestly i like all 3 D taken in last years top 10 better than Chychrun.
When i watch him im left very unimpressed.

 

[Mikeyg]

honestly i like all 3 D taken in last years top 10 better than Chychrun.
When i watch him im left very unimpressed.

His production has gone down, last year at the 42 game marker he had 4 more points. Yikes, what a disaster.

 

[WTFMAN99]

honestly i like all 3 D taken in last years top 10 better than Chychrun.
When i watch him im left very unimpressed.

Hanifin and Provorov...yeah I could see that.

I'd have Chychrun above Werenski.

 

[Duffman955]

Chychurn did not make the jump in development everyone was hoping for this year.

Talent is there but has taken a huge hit in my rankings.

 

[Mikeyg]

Now WTFMAN is going to tell us how great chychrun is again. Hes not a top 5 talent anymore man, we cant ignore reality any longer.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Now WTFMAN is going to tell us how great chychrun is again. Hes not a top 5 talent anymore man, we cant ignore reality any longer.

No, I'm just not stupid enough to proclaim I can see how a 17 year old kids career is going to play out quite yet.

 

[gabeliscious]

i think to go from 4 to 8 would be more then a 2nd and 3rd. probably 2 x 2nds and maybe a 3rd or 4th as well.

i think hunter would make that move if he doesnt love the kid at 4 or he thinks he can get his guy at 8.

hypothetically we are probably looking at gauthier, mcleod, maybe dubois, the russian defenseman, and possibly even nylander at 8 although not likely.

imo dubois/ gauthier + 38+68 + 2nd '17>>> tkachuck or chychrun

 

[Mikeyg]

No, I'm just not stupid enough to proclaim I can see how a 17 year old kids career is going to play out quite yet.

Then by that same logic why do we take that risk when the risk is substantially less for forwards in that range?

 

[The Magic Man]

Then by that same logic why do we take that risk when the risk is substantially less for forwards in that range?

I find it odd that you speak as though your opinion is all that matters. As though no player has had up and downs and can't get better as they age a little more.

Even scouts have been wrong. There's no way this isn't anymore more then one's opinion, whether you're paid as the best scout in the game, or us. Chychrun has slid a bit, as did Jones, but some of that has a lot to do with what the Finns did then what he doesn't.

Personally I value a defenseman defensive game more then his ability to score as a defender.

 

[Duffman955]

I find it odd that you speak as though your opinion is all that matters. As though no player has had up and downs and can't get better as they age a little more.

Even scouts have been wrong. There's no way this isn't anymore more then one's opinion, whether you're paid as the best scout in the game, or us. Chychrun has slid a bit, as did Jones, but some of that has a lot to do with what the Finns did then what he doesn't.

Personally I value a defenseman defensive game more then his ability to score as a defender.

That is very hard to guage in junior. thats why many top defenders were drafted beyond the top 5.

Look at the best defensemen in the league, they are usually not top 5 picks.

 

[Menzinger]

I find it odd that you speak as though your opinion is all that matters. As though no player has had up and downs and can't get better as they age a little more.

Even scouts have been wrong. There's no way this isn't anymore more then one's opinion, whether you're paid as the best scout in the game, or us. Chychrun has slid a bit, as did Jones, but some of that has a lot to do with what the Finns did then what he doesn't.

Personally I value a defenseman defensive game more then his ability to score as a defender.

The issue is though - it's very difficult to gauge how defensive ability from the minors to the NHL will translate. It's easier to guess with offense - ie a big scorer in the minors has a higher chance of translating offense than a player not putting up noticable numbers in junior.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Then by that same logic why do we take that risk when the risk is substantially less for forwards in that range?

I find it odd that you speak as though your opinion is all that matters. As though no player has had up and downs and can't get better as they age a little more.

Even scouts have been wrong. There's no way this isn't anymore more then one's opinion, whether you're paid as the best scout in the game, or us. Chychrun has slid a bit, as did Jones, but some of that has a lot to do with what the Finns did then what he doesn't.

Personally I value a defenseman defensive game more then his ability to score as a defender.

The issue is though - it's very difficult to gauge how defensive ability from the minors to the NHL will translate. It's easier to guess with offense - ie a big scorer in the minors has a higher chance of translating offense than a player not putting up noticable numbers in junior.

Most of this is good points. I'll touch on some things.

I would never take a defensive defenseman early, that blew up in our faces with Luke Schenn, there needs to be some skill there. I see Chychrun as a Pietrangelo type, and I know *some* people will look at his points and question his offensive upside...the reality is the Sting don't have a lot in the way of high end offensive talent, until Kocecny arrived, only Zacha was above a point per game pace...and that's a forward. What are you expecting a defenseman to put up? I've actually really liked what I have seen from Chychrun on the occasions I've been able to see him, and I think he makes the right play but sometimes your guys don't cash in on the chances you create for them.

Shoulder issues are resolved, hasn't been an issue this year unless someone has some news or information stating otherwise.

Now is there an issue in projecting defenseman? Yes. Keith, Weber, Subban taken in the 2nd round, Letang taken in the 3rd.

It is hard to project a LOT of players though. Put your hand up if you had Jamie Benn winning the Art Ross trophy last season? No one? He was a 5th round pick.

Not gonna lie - I'd take Matthews 1st overall in a heart beat, and the Fins are damned good looking prospects, but they aren't a sure thing at all, because it's difficult to tell from now how a 17 year old kid will mature (physically and mentally) - look at the headache Tampa has right now because some kid is NOT mature mentally. We're lucky that we have some good kids in Nylander and Marner.

All I am saying is, Chychrun is the consensus best defenseman as of right now in this draft. I am sure some people may argue that a guy like Sergachev or Juolevi could turn out better, and it's totally possible. I am just saying that it would be foolish to rule out Chychrun as a top 5 guy, especially when you look at what we have on the way at forward versus defense (and yes I know you go BPA - but if both players are comparable, draw goes to position IMO)

I can see a lot of people's opinions on this, but MikeyG's obsession with continually putting Chychrun down as a prospect is just pathetic at this point.

 

[Daisy Jane]

and I really have to wonder if Chychrun had gone to the the WJC this year if people would be higher up. like I know for me - that's the extent of my "visual" extent (I trust you guys + i read reports other than that).

 

[Apotheosis]

I feel the same about Gauthier. His game should translate well to the pros. He'd look good next to Nylander imho. He could be a Cory Perry caliber winger.

Yeah. There's not much talk about him, but he has those Perry/Benn qualities from the get go already. Crazy size, skill to compliment it. Obviously needs some polishing before he plays in the NHL, but I just feel like anyone who takes him will end up getting one of the top wingers in the future. That kind of size and skill doesn't just grow on trees. So if he's still there at the Pitts pick, I take him in a heartbeat.

 

[Apotheosis]

Most of this is good points. I'll touch on some things.

I would never take a defensive defenseman early, that blew up in our faces with Luke Schenn, there needs to be some skill there. I see Chychrun as a Pietrangelo type, and I know *some* people will look at his points and question his offensive upside...the reality is the Sting don't have a lot in the way of high end offensive talent, until Kocecny arrived, only Zacha was above a point per game pace...and that's a forward. What are you expecting a defenseman to put up? I've actually really liked what I have seen from Chychrun on the occasions I've been able to see him, and I think he makes the right play but sometimes your guys don't cash in on the chances you create for them.

Shoulder issues are resolved, hasn't been an issue this year unless someone has some news or information stating otherwise.

Now is there an issue in projecting defenseman? Yes. Keith, Weber, Subban taken in the 2nd round, Letang taken in the 3rd.

It is hard to project a LOT of players though. Put your hand up if you had Jamie Benn winning the Art Ross trophy last season? No one? He was a 5th round pick.

Not gonna lie - I'd take Matthews 1st overall in a heart beat, and the Fins are damned good looking prospects, but they aren't a sure thing at all, because it's difficult to tell from now how a 17 year old kid will mature (physically and mentally) - look at the headache Tampa has right now because some kid is NOT mature mentally. We're lucky that we have some good kids in Nylander and Marner.

All I am saying is, Chychrun is the consensus best defenseman as of right now in this draft. I am sure some people may argue that a guy like Sergachev or Juolevi could turn out better, and it's totally possible. I am just saying that it would be foolish to rule out Chychrun as a top 5 guy, especially when you look at what we have on the way at forward versus defense (and yes I know you go BPA - but if both players are comparable, draw goes to position IMO)

I can see a lot of people's opinions on this, but MikeyG's obsession with continually putting Chychrun down as a prospect is just pathetic at this point.

I still don't understand why people think his offensive game will be a problem.

Let's compare him with Doughty for a moment.

2005–06 Guelph Storm OHL 65 5 28 33 40 14 0 13 13 18
2006–07 Guelph Storm OHL 67 21 53 74 76 4 2 3 5 8
2007–08 Guelph Storm OHL 58 13 37 50

Here are Doughty's 3 years in Junior. 2007 was his final junior year when he was the same age as Jakob and he scored below PPG.

2014–15 Sarnia Sting OHL 42 16 17 33

This was Chyhcrun's 2014 season, scoring at essentially the same clip as Doughty, despite being a year younger in that very same scenario.

2015-16 Sarnia Sting OHL 42 7 22 29

This is his stat line for this season thus far. Almost identical, despite the fact that he was nursing a hurt shoulder and the team in front of him couldn't produce any offence. Would anyone say that picking Doughty was the wrong move? No, and especially now not in hindsight.

Bottom line is, Jakob has amazing hockey IQ, great defensive positioning, he's the best skater in the draft when it comes to defence men and he's already a man child in terms of size and he's only 17. Anybody who passes on him beyond the 3-4 range will be sorry in the future as far as I can tell. If we're drafting 4, I want no one else besides him.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I still don't understand why people think his offensive game will be a problem.

Let's compare him with Doughty for a moment.

2005–06 Guelph Storm OHL 65 5 28 33 40 14 0 13 13 18
2006–07 Guelph Storm OHL 67 21 53 74 76 4 2 3 5 8
2007–08 Guelph Storm OHL 58 13 37 50

Here are Doughty's 3 years in Junior. 2007 was his final junior year when he was the same age as Jakob and he scored below PPG.

2014–15 Sarnia Sting OHL 42 16 17 33

This was Chyhcrun's 2014 season, scoring at essentially the same clip as Doughty, despite being a year younger in that very same scenario.

2015-16 Sarnia Sting OHL 42 7 22 29

This is his stat line for this season thus far. Almost identical, despite the fact that he was nursing a hurt shoulder and the team in front of him couldn't produce any offence. Would anyone say that picking Doughty was the wrong move? No, and especially now not in hindsight.

Bottom line is, Jakob has amazing hockey IQ, great defensive positioning, he's the best skater in the draft when it comes to defence men and he's already a man child in terms of size and he's only 17. Anybody who passes on him beyond the 3-4 range will be sorry in the future as far as I can tell. If we're drafting 4, I want no one else besides him.

The shoulder injury was last year though too, so even that concern is kind of gone, but point well made on Doughty and his stats.

Lots of recency bias, blows my mind to see a guy like Juolevi ranked ahead of Chychrun on some lists, all because of the WJC.

 

[Apotheosis]

The shoulder injury was last year though too, so even that concern is kind of gone, but point well made on Doughty and his stats.

Lots of recency bias, blows my mind to see a guy like Juolevi ranked ahead of Chychrun on some lists, all because of the WJC.

Injuries to the shoulder, knee and the rarer head are way harder to get over than arm and lower/upper leg injuries. As someone who has had knee and shoulder injuries and who knows people who have shoulder problems, it's a lot more impactful than most think. I play in a Sunday league soccer team and one of my friends played there for 2 years until his nagging shoulder problems just forced him to stop. He got injured years back working and dislocated his shoulder. It dislocates so easily now to the point where just going shoulder to shoulder against another guy on our team in practice caused him to dislocate it. It creates a mental block in where you go and how you play any sport, especially a sport like hockey that is so body to body.

 

[GBLeaf]

Injuries to the shoulder, knee and the rarer head are way harder to get over than arm and lower/upper leg injuries. As someone who has had knee and shoulder injuries and who knows people who have shoulder problems, it's a lot more impactful than most think. I play in a Sunday league soccer team and one of my friends played there for 2 years until his nagging shoulder problems just forced him to stop. He got injured years back working and dislocated his shoulder. It dislocates so easily now to the point where just going shoulder to shoulder against another guy on our team in practice caused him to dislocate it. It creates a mental block in where you go and how you play any sport, especially a sport like hockey that is so body to body.

I have no opinion on Chychrun, but I can back up that statement. I have a very similar shoulder/dislocation story with a former teammate of mine, and it became such an issue he had to leave a good team where he got paid, our physio had no idea how to stop it.

Any joint insures, especially at a young age will always be a concern. I strained the ligaments in my ankle and it's never been the same. Then I did the other one, and I'm sure it's because I over compensated the weight on that side psychologically.

Not saying don't draft JC, but the type of injuries are definitely cause for concern.

 

[New Liskeard]

Most of this is good points. I'll touch on some things.

I would never take a defensive defenseman early, that blew up in our faces with Luke Schenn, there needs to be some skill there. I see Chychrun as a Pietrangelo type, and I know *some* people will look at his points and question his offensive upside...the reality is the Sting don't have a lot in the way of high end offensive talent, until Kocecny arrived, only Zacha was above a point per game pace...and that's a forward. What are you expecting a defenseman to put up? I've actually really liked what I have seen from Chychrun on the occasions I've been able to see him, and I think he makes the right play but sometimes your guys don't cash in on the chances you create for them.

Shoulder issues are resolved, hasn't been an issue this year unless someone has some news or information stating otherwise.

Now is there an issue in projecting defenseman? Yes. Keith, Weber, Subban taken in the 2nd round, Letang taken in the 3rd.

It is hard to project a LOT of players though. Put your hand up if you had Jamie Benn winning the Art Ross trophy last season? No one? He was a 5th round pick.

Not gonna lie - I'd take Matthews 1st overall in a heart beat, and the Fins are damned good looking prospects, but they aren't a sure thing at all, because it's difficult to tell from now how a 17 year old kid will mature (physically and mentally) - look at the headache Tampa has right now because some kid is NOT mature mentally. We're lucky that we have some good kids in Nylander and Marner.

All I am saying is, Chychrun is the consensus best defenseman as of right now in this draft. I am sure some people may argue that a guy like Sergachev or Juolevi could turn out better, and it's totally possible. I am just saying that it would be foolish to rule out Chychrun as a top 5 guy, especially when you look at what we have on the way at forward versus defense (and yes I know you go BPA - but if both players are comparable, draw goes to position IMO)

I can see a lot of people's opinions on this, but MikeyG's obsession with continually putting Chychrun down as a prospect is just pathetic at this point.

You are being polite. Nothing wrong with having opposing views and different opinions, but the constant slander is juvenile and lacks any semblance of an intelligent response.