OT: 2016 Blue Bombers Thread Part Trois

[sipowicz]

So O'Shea says he accepts no blame for his decision to go for an unmake-able field goal on 3rd and 4, would have been impressed if he said he made a mistake!

Richie Hall is probably going to get canned, his prevent defense or whatever it was could be called a failure when the Blue D gave up the most yards in the CFL!

 

[irunthepeg]

D'oh

All good, just bugging ya. Knew who you meant.

So O'Shea wants no blame for the dumb call? WTF. Also, watch Nichols regress back down to the mean next season and start off terribly and have people wonder how that could be.

 

[kylbaz]

I'm impressed with how the reporters really gave it to him. Even when he defended it they kept coming at him, was pretty funny. Something along the lines of, "So even though this has only been done one other time in CFL history, you would still go and make the same decision?" lol.

 

[nobody important]

I took the Sun up on their offer to be the Boss. I fired everybody from Miller on down to the lowliest assistant coach. Gone, gone I say! Ha ha, I'm drunk with power. Or maybe it's the Saison I had with lunch just now.

 

[gbill2004*]

First one is misleading. 33% chance of converting with 4 yards to go? That's small sample size at work. I'm guessing the conversion rate of [any down] and 4 to go would be much closer to 60% in the CFL.

I don't know how Medlock figures the second. His pregame range (apparently) was 57 yards. Maybe he's hit 61 yarders before in practice, but remember that it's a lot different when you're kicking against field goal blockers and need to get elevation on the kick. I'd put it at about a 5% chance of success, and even that's probably a bit generous.

I'll put a little more weight on what Medlock says than you.

And FYI you read my post wrong. Got the two stats mixed up.

 

[Board Bard]

Halfways heard on 1290 a day or two ago (can't remember who exactly) that due to some contract or ratio manipulation thingy that Medlock is a free agent after this season. And the same applies to one of their O linemen. It'd be the ***** to lose the team's MVP.

 

[tbcwpg]

Halfways heard on 1290 a day or two ago (can't remember who exactly) that due to some contract or ratio manipulation thingy that Medlock is a free agent after this season. And the same applies to one of their O linemen. It'd be the ***** to lose the team's MVP.

They were talking about it yesterday afternoon on H&L, basically they re-worked their contracts so that they can fit under the cap, so while they're technically free agents, it'll be a long shot that they actually sign elsewhere. It'll probably get done by the Dec 1 deadline, but it's hard with the CFL sometimes because they don't report news like that until after the Grey Cup.

 

[nobody important]

They were talking about it yesterday afternoon on H&L, basically they re-worked their contracts so that they can fit under the cap, so while they're technically free agents, it'll be a long shot that they actually sign elsewhere. It'll probably get done by the Dec 1 deadline, but it's hard with the CFL sometimes because they don't report news like that until after the Grey Cup.

Not to get too punny, but if MOS decides to jump ship to the Argos, don't be surprised if he brings a boatload of our free agents with him.

 

[Ducky10]

Well, he can only take as many as their cap will allow, I'm not sure why he would want to take a boatload and I don't know why a boatload would bother going regardless. Besides, from the list below how many do we really care about, especially considering we own the 1st pick in the draft this year (courtesy of the Argos).

Nichols, Bass, Adams, Bryant, Medlock? Denmark was a good story but he was expendable once and will be again. The list below may seem large but very few are core players. I don't think there is too much to worry about most of them going anywhere anyway.

QB Matt Nichols
QB Dominique Davis
QB Kevin Glenn
QB Bryan Bennett
Rec Darvin Adams
Rec Tori Gurley
Rec Clarence Denmark
Rec Thomas Mayo
Rec Rory Kohlert
Rec / KR Quincy McDuffie
Rec Kieren Duncan
OL Stanley Bryant
OL Jeff Keeping
FB James Tuck
DT Euclid Cummings
DL Brandon Tennant
LB Khalil Bass
LB Teague Sherman
LB Jesse Briggs
LB Tony Burnett
LB Sam Hurl
LB Justin Warden
DB Julian Posey
DB Chris Greenwood
K Justin Medlock
LS Chad Rempel

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I'll put a little more weight on what Medlock says than you.

And FYI you read my post wrong. Got the two stats mixed up.

Yep, and that's your prerogative. Medlock's a pro athlete, I'm sure if you asked how many kicks he expects to make inside of 50, he'd answer 100%. His range at pregame was apparently 57 yards, so...

But even if we take the 1 in 3 chance at face value, it's still not playing the percentages. You actually believe that you have a less than 1 in 3 chance of gaining 4 or more yards from scrimmage in the CFL? That's nonsensical. It was a terrible decision by O'Shea.

 

[gbill2004*]

Yep, and that's your prerogative. Medlock's a pro athlete, I'm sure if you asked how many kicks he expects to make inside of 50, he'd answer 100%. His range at pregame was apparently 57 yards, so...

But even if we take the 1 in 3 chance at face value, it's still not playing the percentages. You actually believe that you have a less than 1 in 3 chance of gaining 4 or more yards from scrimmage in the CFL? That's nonsensical. It was a terrible decision by O'Shea.

While it's a small sample size, 3 of 12 third and four converts were successful this past season. And only 18% of all third down gambles were successful in 2016.

 

[puck stoppa]

Yep, and that's your prerogative. Medlock's a pro athlete, I'm sure if you asked how many kicks he expects to make inside of 50, he'd answer 100%. His range at pregame was apparently 57 yards, so...

But even if we take the 1 in 3 chance at face value, it's still not playing the percentages. You actually believe that you have a less than 1 in 3 chance of gaining 4 or more yards from scrimmage in the CFL? That's nonsensical. It was a terrible decision by O'Shea.

I share your sentiment but to each their own. Both calls are second guessed if missed.

 

[puck stoppa]

Not to get too punny, but if MOS decides to jump ship to the Argos, don't be surprised if he brings a boatload of our free agents with him.

Nice one
Did you hear somewhere that he's thinking of leaving if TOR makes moves?
If so, who would we target? Khari Jones?

 

[nobody important]

Well, he can only take as many as their cap will allow, I'm not sure why he would want to take a boatload and I don't know why a boatload would bother going regardless. Besides, from the list below how many do we really care about, especially considering we own the 1st pick in the draft this year (courtesy of the Argos).

Nichols, Bass, Adams, Bryant, Medlock? Denmark was a good story but he was expendable once and will be again. The list below may seem large but very few are core players. I don't think there is too much to worry about most of them going anywhere anyway.

QB Matt Nichols
QB Dominique Davis
QB Kevin Glenn
QB Bryan Bennett
Rec Darvin Adams
Rec Tori Gurley
Rec Clarence Denmark
Rec Thomas Mayo
Rec Rory Kohlert
Rec / KR Quincy McDuffie
Rec Kieren Duncan
OL Stanley Bryant
OL Jeff Keeping
FB James Tuck
DT Euclid Cummings
DL Brandon Tennant
LB Khalil Bass
LB Teague Sherman
LB Jesse Briggs
LB Tony Burnett
LB Sam Hurl
LB Justin Warden
DB Julian Posey
DB Chris Greenwood
K Justin Medlock
LS Chad Rempel

OK, boatload was wordplay. Thought that was obvious. Why would they follow? Supposedly MOS is much loved in the room. All it takes is 2 key players (Nichols, Medlock) and the Bombers are no longer a playoff team.

 

[bustamente]

If the HC job does open up in Toronto O'Shea as a free agent would probably be interested in the position being a Southern Ontario guy and former player, but does he want to start all over again, with what he has done here probably sign here but you never know.

 

[nobody important]

Nice one
Did you hear somewhere that he's thinking of leaving if TOR makes moves?
If so, who would we target? Khari Jones?

Nope, but he spent a lot of years there off and on. If Milanovich is turfed, I would put all my vmoney on MOS heading "home".

 

[Ducky10]

OK, boatload was wordplay. Thought that was obvious. Why would they follow? Supposedly MOS is much loved in the room. All it takes is 2 key players (Nichols, Medlock) and the Bombers are no longer a playoff team.

I know it was wordplay (well done btw), it's why I reused it twice back .

Apparently Medlock isn't much of a concern, he restructured his deal this season for the Bombers to fit under the cap and is considered a very good bet to come back. I also don't see Nichols wanting to go to the same team that just traded it's first round pick for the guy he had to beat out last season for his starter's job. He doesn't strike me as an MOS guy, I'd guess he's more of a LaPo guy, he's operating in a favourable system right now that's allowed him to be successful. Toronto doesn't seem a likely destination for him, or a very favourable one imo.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

While it's a small sample size, 3 of 12 third and four converts were successful this past season. And only 18% of all third down gambles were successful in 2016.

Re: the bolded, I'm assuming by gambles you mean 3rd and 2 or longer?

Came across this interesting article:

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/cfl-55-yard-line/chris-jones--failed-third-down-gamble-had-merit--but-wasn-t-necessarily-worth-it-011518710.html

And this interesting table from the article (EDIT: should mention, this is CFL data from 2008 to 2012):

So I was off when I said 60%, 2nd and 4 is more of a 50-50 proposition.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I share your sentiment but to each their own. Both calls are second guessed if missed.

To each their own, sure. But there was a logical, higher percentage decision, and that was to go for it. I wouldn't have second guessed a logical decision.

 

[SIV]

While it's a small sample size, 3 of 12 third and four converts were successful this past season. And only 18% of all third down gambles were successful in 2016.

Question....what's the percentage of 61 yard field goal attempts this past season?

 

[sipowicz]

Bo Levi Choke Mitchell!

 

[AWSAA]

So that's 9 other teams who've won a Grey Cup since the Bombers last now.

 

[CaptainChef]

Bo Levi Choke Mitchell!

Looks good on Mitchell. Those cocky comments at the half when we played him just came back home to roost.

 

[Guardian17]

I'm happy Ottawa won, Calgary was way too cocky.

That said, I'm ticked that and expansion team won the Grey Cup in 3 years!

It's been 26 years and counting for us.

 

[angrymnky]

So that's 9 other teams who've won a Grey Cup since the Bombers last now.

And half of the league has won 4 cups in that timespan.