2015 / 8-Team University Cup - Halifax

[Hollywood3]

The odds are strongly against all conference leaders advancing to the nationals. In fact, the odds are fairly strong that a "dud" will get one of the three OUA berths. And if Alberta and/or UNB qualify as runner-up then they will go in as #5 (or even #6) seeds. The net effect is that the seedings will likely have very little connection to the relative strength of the teams.

 

[MiamiHockey]

The odds are strongly against all conference leaders advancing to the nationals. In fact, the odds are fairly strong that a "dud" will get one of the three OUA berths. And if Alberta and/or UNB qualify as runner-up then they will go in as #5 (or even #6) seeds. The net effect is that the seedings will likely have very little connection to the relative strength of the teams.

So, you're arguing that one of the OUA teams will be a "dud" ... and exactly when was the last time a Canada West team other than Alberta won the University Cup?

Lethbridge 1993-1994

Since that time three different OUA programs have hoisted the Cup over their heads.

So perhaps only Alberta should ever be invited to the University Cup, because it seems that no other Canada West teams have a chance of winning.

 

[Rob]

Alberta is the only team that I would be shocked if they weren't there.
I can see either UNB or Acadia being upset by SMU in the second round of the AUS playoffs. I think McGill and Carleton will be there but they aren't juggernauts.
Calgary isn't that strong. They could fall to Manitoba or Mount Royal.

 

[Hollywood3]

So, you're arguing that one of the OUA teams will be a "dud" ... and exactly when was the last time a Canada West team other than Alberta won the University Cup?

Lethbridge 1993-1994

Since that time three different OUA programs have hoisted the Cup over their heads.

So perhaps only Alberta should ever be invited to the University Cup, because it seems that no other Canada West teams have a chance of winning.

The CW has a 21-10 lead over the OUA in the 2000's. Any slightly abive-average team in the OUA gets to go to the nationals several times over a period of time, which increases their odds.

Odds are, one dud team will get one of the three OUA berths.

 

[MiamiHockey]

The CW has a 21-10 lead over the OUA in the 2000's. Any slightly abive-average team in the OUA gets to go to the nationals several times over a period of time, which increases their odds.

Odds are, one dud team will get one of the three OUA berths.

And how many of those wins belong to Alberta?

Canada West has a single dominant program in Alberta, but after that the No. 2-5 teams are no better than the No. 2-5 teams from Ontario. If they were, then one or two of them would upset Alberta from time to time.

 

[Hollywood3]

And how many of those wins belong to Alberta?

Canada West has a single dominant program in Alberta, but after that the No. 2-5 teams are no better than the No. 2-5 teams from Ontario. If they were, then one or two of them would upset Alberta from time to time.

Two things:

1. The 2-5 teams in the CW don't go the nationals very often. The #2 team in the OUA goes every year.

2. The CW teams do upset Alberta from time to time. However in a best of three they usually come back to win. Even Regina once beat them in game 1.

 

[northvanman]

The OUA West is setting up in a way that is very similar to each of the past two years - meaning there's a good chance for upsets and that a middle of the pack team advances - last year it was Windsor (4th) and 2 years ago it was Waterloo (6th). Windsor, Western and Waterloo have separated themselves from the pack, but the truth is that none is a truly dominant team ...lots of one and two goal games and all 3 have recently lost to teams with weak records (Windsor to Laurier, Western to York, Waterloo to Queen's). All are vulnerable in a short series so the chances of a weaker team coming from the OUA west is certainly there. I think two good teams advance from the OUA East, however.

 

[Rob]

Can two teams from the same conference end up playing each other in the quarterfinals (opening round)? Or will they be ranked as to avoid that possibility?

 

[MiamiHockey]

Can two teams from the same conference end up playing each other in the quarterfinals (opening round)? Or will they be ranked as to avoid that possibility?

It's been previously discussed here that it's precisely the reason why the Top 4 teams will be the AUS Champ, CW Champ, OUA Champ, and OUA Runner-Up. That enables the organizing committee to easily avoid intra-conference match-ups in the Quarter-Finals by ranking the bottom 4 teams accordingly.

Whether or not the organizing committee has stated that they will avoid intra-conference games, I don't know, but it seems pretty clear that it will be avoided.

 

[Hollywood3]

It's been previously discussed here that it's precisely the reason why the Top 4 teams will be the AUS Champ, CW Champ, OUA Champ, and OUA Runner-Up. That enables the organizing committee to easily avoid intra-conference match-ups in the Quarter-Finals by ranking the bottom 4 teams accordingly.

Whether or not the organizing committee has stated that they will avoid intra-conference games, I don't know, but it seems pretty clear that it will be avoided.

The seeding rules are here: http://static.psbin.com/5/i/kgwpup22hk0jj5/HockeyM.pdf

See 4.2.2. Teams can be moved up or down up to 2 places. There was no need to make OUA 2 the #4 seed to avoid conflicts. In fact, making one more team eligible to move reduces the odds of a conflict given the 2 places limitation on movement.

 

[leafhky88]

The OUA West is setting up in a way that is very similar to each of the past two years - meaning there's a good chance for upsets and that a middle of the pack team advances - last year it was Windsor (4th) and 2 years ago it was Waterloo (6th). Windsor, Western and Waterloo have separated themselves from the pack, but the truth is that none is a truly dominant team ...lots of one and two goal games and all 3 have recently lost to teams with weak records (Windsor to Laurier, Western to York, Waterloo to Queen's). All are vulnerable in a short series so the chances of a weaker team coming from the OUA west is certainly there. I think two good teams advance from the OUA East, however.

I agree. This year's OUA West has looked to be the most lackluster since I started following. Western no longer has the high octane depth offense of past teams and relies on rolling 4 decent lines, and grinding out a lot of 1 and 2 goal games. Windsor is built the same as this year's Western team, consistent with their teams in the past 2-3 years. Waterloo seems to have the best team on paper, with great depth on the blue line, a good goaltender and 5-6 blue chip high end offensive forwards, but have struggled at times with consistently, including losing 5 in a row (albeit early in the season).

What is most surprising is they have a 5-2 combined record against the tops in the East in Carleton, UQTR and McGill.

All 6 of these teams have distinguished themselves from the rest of the OUA, though the 3 East teams have generally shown greater consistency.

 

[Drummer]

Game Times and Website

I came across the following site for the tournament. Most of the content are links to PDF files, but at least it's current stuff.

http://ucuphfx.ca/

FYI - the afternoon games are at 1:00pm (2:00 EST) on Thu & Fri while Saturday's game is at noon (1:00 EST) which is pretty early but that's to allow the late game to start at 4:00 and end in time for CIS basketball to get the night game

Also - the site confirms that SFX will be playing Friday night.

 

[radapex]

I came across the following site for the tournament. Most of the content are links to PDF files, but at least it's current stuff.

http://ucuphfx.ca/

FYI - the afternoon games are at 1:00pm (2:00 EST) on Thu & Fri while Saturday's game is at noon (1:00 EST) which is pretty early but that's to allow the late game to start at 4:00 and end in time for CIS basketball to get the night game

Also - the site confirms that SFX will be playing Friday night.

You got your timezone conversion backward.

1:00pm AST = 12:00pm (noon) EST
12:00pm (noon) AST = 11:00am EST

 

[Drummer]

You got your timezone conversion backward.

1:00pm AST = 12:00pm (noon) EST
12:00pm (noon) AST = 11:00am EST

Oops - thanks

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I expect the breakdown to look something like this:

1 - Alberta (they will win CW easily so I am already putting them down at #1)
2 - AUS Champ (if SMU/UNB/Acadia)
3 - OUA Champ
4 - OUA 2nd
5/6 - AUS 2nd and CW 2nd in some order...probably AUS 2nd at 5th to keep the other CW team on the opposite side of Alberta
7/8 - OUA 3rd and AUS 3rd in some order...probably OUA 3rd at 7th to keep away from an all-AUS 2/7 match-up

That would make the 1/8 match-up Alberta/AUS 3rd and the 4/5 match-up OUA 2nd/AUS 2nd.
On the other side would be the 2/7 match-up of AUS Champ/OUA 3rd and the 3/6 match-up of OUA Champ/CW 2nd

 

[Drummer]

I expect the breakdown to look something like this:

1 - Alberta (they will win CW easily so I am already putting them down at #1)
2 - AUS Champ (if SMU/UNB/Acadia)
3 - OUA Champ
4 - OUA 2nd
5/6 - AUS 2nd and CW 2nd in some order...probably AUS 2nd at 5th to keep the other CW team on the opposite side of Alberta
7/8 - OUA 3rd and AUS 3rd in some order...probably OUA 3rd at 7th to keep away from an all-AUS 2/7 match-up

That would make the 1/8 match-up Alberta/AUS 3rd and the 4/5 match-up OUA 2nd/AUS 2nd.
On the other side would be the 2/7 match-up of AUS Champ/OUA 3rd and the 3/6 match-up of OUA Champ/CW 2nd

That's the way I see it as well.

 

[AUS Fan]

A couple of points: If SFX wins the AUS, they are the #3 seed. I would think AUS #2 (ACA, UNB, SMU) would place ahead of OUA #2.

 

[AdamMcg83]

Odds are, one dud team will get one of the three OUA berths.

Lots of hockey left, but it's shaping up that the three OUA reps could definitely be Windsor, McGill, and UQTR - a combined 44 weeks out of 51 in the top 10.

 

[MiamiHockey]

Lots of hockey left, but it's shaping up that the three OUA reps could definitely be Windsor, McGill, and UQTR - a combined 44 weeks out of 51 in the top 10.

Either of UQTR / McGill will be a very dangerous #7/8 seed. Both deep teams with repeated University Cup visits and championship experience.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Oua

Either of UQTR / McGill will be a very dangerous #7/8 seed. Both deep teams with repeated University Cup visits and championship experience.

No question, those programs have been a regular on the National stage for a long time. UQTR, as well as McGill have had strong recruiting classes the past couple of years. Windsor and Carelton are also programs on the rise. they are all capable of winning ,especially in a single knock out event.
Should be a dandy tournament this year.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

A couple of points: If SFX wins the AUS, they are the #3 seed. I would think AUS #2 (ACA, UNB, SMU) would place ahead of OUA #2.

If X wins here is how I see it:

1 - Alberta
2 - OUA Champ
3 - St. FX
4/5 - OUA 2nd and AUS 2nd in some order
6 - CW 2nd
7 - AUS 3rd
8 - OUA 3rd

That gives you Alberta/OUA 3rd and OUA 2nd/AUS 2nd on one side of the bracket and OUA Champ/AUS 3rd and St. FX (AUS Champ)/CW 2nd on the other side.

 

[Hollywood3]

No question, those programs have been a regular on the National stage for a long time. UQTR, as well as McGill have had strong recruiting classes the past couple of years. Windsor and Carelton are also programs on the rise. they are all capable of winning ,especially in a single knock out event.
Should be a dandy tournament this year.

Toronto is one win away from being in the OUA final four. So let's hold our horses.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Toronto is one win away from being in the OUA final four. So let's hold our horses.

If they make it to Halifax, I think they would get waxed!!
I bet money on it!

 

[Hollywood3]

If they make it to Halifax, I think they would get waxed!!
I bet money on it!

They would. Even if they were to qualify as the #4 seed. In that case being the #5 seed would be the most coveted place in the tournament.

 

[AUS Fan]

For some reason, people have OUA #2 at 4 seed over AUS #2. I don't see the rationale in that. Can someone explain???