Salary Cap: 2014-15 Cap / 2015 the Summer of the RFA D

[ItsTheCracken*]

IMO ... Roussel is a pretty easy one. He and Raffl are extremely similar, and there were several very good comparables from last summer.

Dillon's could be difficult because there is some reasonable case to push for more than 2. Eakin's will be difficult because he could justify arguing that he was Dallas' 2nd line center the last 2 seasons, especially this season. He could push for Kadri money potentially.

As for why Roussel's may not have been announced is when you look at the current ELC's Dallas has been signing, it's after their seasons. I'm guessing he doesn't want to do much in season negotiating to distract players. That's why I'm a bit surprised Sinitsyn is still unsigned. Lindell is still currently playing with the Finnish national team. I don't honestly expect Winther or Kiviaho to get a contract.

I agree with all your points.
- I think Roussel is in the ballpark of 2/$1.2per.
- Eakin's contract will most likely go past draft, he will want to get paid like a #2C, even though he should be our #3.
- Dillon hopefully can be done before draft. Like you said, do a 2/$2.5 bridge deal. Leaving room for a long term deal in the future.

 

[BigG44]

Salary is more important to the Stars than Cap Hit since they won't be a cap team. Just so it's in an easy to find place, here is where they are with the cost of potential buyouts and retained moves.

I'm going to assume the Stars will budget Nichushkin earning his A bonuses. He earned a 1/4 of them this year, and small improvement in his totals would push him to earning the full $850K bonus.

$5.25 - Benn|$5.5 - Seguin|$1.775 - Nichushkin
$4 - Cole|$3.375 - Peverley|$0.9 - Chiasson
RFA - Roussel|RFA - Eakin|$1.6 - Garbutt
XXXX|$3 - Horcoff|$0.6 - Sceviour

Forwards |$26 million

$4.8 - Goligoski|$3.5 - Daley
$0.65 - Benn|RFA - Dillon
$5 - Gonchar|$0.81 - Nemeth
$0.65 - Connauton|$1.6 - Rome

Defense |$17.01 million

Goalie |$6.25 - Lehtonen

Total |$49.26 million

Cost/Savings of Buyouts

Player | Cost | Savings
Gonchar|$1.667|$3.333
Cole|$1.333|$2.667
Rome|$0.533|$1.067

Peverley on LTIR, likely career over, would result in insurance paying his $3.375 million salary and that coming off the budget.

Using 1 regular and 2 compliance buyouts, Dallas' salary would be at $42.193 million.

Without Peverley and using 3 buyouts, Dallas' salary would be at $38.818 million.

 

[BigG44]

My best guess on RFA's today is:

Dillion: 2 years for $5 million ($2.5 Cap Hit); Y1: $2.25; Y2: $2.75
Eakin: 2 years for $4.5 million ($2.25 Cap Hit); Y1: $2; Y2: $2.5
Roussel: 2 years for $2.5 million ($1.25 Cap Hit); Y1: $1.1; Y2: $1.4
Jeffrey: 1 year for $687,500 (Minimum Required QO)
Glennie: 1 year, two-way, for $600,000 ($95K AHL)

 

[NFKappaB]

How is Garbutt worth more than Roussel?

 

[piqued]

UFA/RFA

caps

 

[BigG44]

How is Garbutt worth more than Roussel?

It's explained in this thread in detail.

Garbutt is a 28 year old unrestricted free agent. Roussel is a restricted free agent.

How is Boyd Gordon worth $3 million and Sean Couturier worth $1.75 or Marcus Krueger worth $1.325 million?

Same answer.

RFA are paid significantly less for their skills compared to UFA. I agree with you it seems wonky, but it's the only way to keep salary down. It also likely contributes though to how awful free agency is once the player turns 27 years old (younger for some).

EDIT: Yikes ... Gordon is worse than I remembered. He's freaking paid $3 million.

 

[CorwiN]

How is Garbutt worth more than Roussel?

Pretty sure Garbutt was a UFA at the end of his last contract. Roussel isn't.

It's just the way that things tend to work. UFAs have more bargaining power.

 

[BigG44]

Just to help shed a bit more light on the UFA problem:

Garbutt is paid $1.8 Cap Hit for 3 years
Adam Burish is paid $1.85 Cap Hit for 4 years
Matt Hendricks is paid $1.85 Cap Hit for 4 years
Travis Moen is paid $1.85 Cap Hit for 4 years

Roussel's RFA comparables from first page:

Marcus Kruger: 2 years for $1.325 million
Kyle Clifford: 2 years for $1.075 million
Joakim Andersson: 2 years for $732,500
Zac Rinaldo: 2 year for $750,000
Jordan Nolan: 2 years for $700,000

However the most important comparable (info below taken at time contract was signed):

Roussel is 24, and Raffl is 25 years old.

Roussel plays 13:07, and Raffl plays 12:54.

Roussel plays 1:39 SH, and Raffl plays 1:44.

Roussel has 12 goals/24 points, and Raffl has 9 goals/21 points.

Roussel has 130 hits with 44 blocked shots, and Raffl has 91 hits with 37 blocked shots.

Raffl's new contract pays him $1.1 million for 2 years. My original guess on Roussel was $950K to $1.15 million. I went a bit lower because I wasn't certain he'd continue his offensive pace, but he's currently projected for 14 goals/28 points. He also has extra NHL experience that Raffl didn't have.

My new guess is 2 years for $1.15 to $1.35 million (Marcus Kruger got $1.325 last year). Anything over $1.5 is an over payment based on the established RFA market.

 

[BigG44]

I don't believe Cody Eakin will earn as much as Tyler Johnson (details yet to be released), but Johnson just signed a 3 year deal with Tampa Bay. The contract could have an impact on negotiations with Eakin. I believe this is the second three year deal for a similar player as Eakin so I wouldn't rule out him possibly securing a third year at this point.

 

[BigG44]

And now we have the money:

Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC

Tyler Johnson extension with TB is three years, $10M.

When you consider Kadri signed 2 for $2.9, 3 years at $3.333 is a pretty good deal for TB.

 

[Hull Fan]

Yeah you can pretty much right off 3 million or above for Eakin but 2.5-2.8 could be on the table, especially if you get that 3rd year.

 

[BigG44]

Tyler Johnson's contract pays him $2.8 + $3.2 + $4 over three years, and TB actually just also signed Ondrej Palat to the same contract yesterday.

Reminder of other recent comparable contracts for Eakin:

Brandon Sutter: 3 years for $2,066,667
Colin Wilson: 3 years for $2 million
Kyle Palmieri: 3 years for $1,466,667
Nazem Kadri: 2 years for $2.9 million
Andrew Shaw: 2 years for $2 million
Marcus Johansson: 2 years for $2 million
Craig Smith: 2 years for $2 million
Sean Couturier: 2 years for $1.75 million
Lars Eller: 2 years for $1.325 million

Just for comparison ... and to me this makes total sense ... Palat and Johnson's contracts are nearly identical to Kadri's 2 year deal in Y1 and Y2. Kadri is paid $2.7 and $3.1 compared to their $2.8 and $3.2.

I think I could see Dallas maybe wanting three, especially with TB getting 3 this summer. If I was Eakin though I think you push for the 2 year deal.

Eakin is in a group below those three players in value at the moment. So I was originally thinking about $2.25 on a 2 year deal for him, and that still seems pretty reasonable. However, he and his agent could accurately argue that he's used in a very similar way as Kadri, Johnson, and Palat. I don't think a two year deal closer to $2.5 or a three year deal closer to $3 is out of the question.

 

[BigG44]

Schenn and Killorn .... to a lesser extent Holland and Pirri ... seem like they could have the most impact on Eakin's negotiations should they sign first.

 

[Johno]

As long as he signs for less than $2.75mil per, I'm okay with it (preferably 3 years). More than that and he should really contribute more.

 

[BigG44]

I'm hoping Dallas saw similar numbers in the first round:

GavinManagementGroup ‏@GavinManagement

The LA Kings merchandisers, @AEGworldwide, grossed $1.6mill over the 3 Stanley Cup final games played at the STAPLES center

New jersey meaning new logo and color scheme and many returning fans means they were likely more motivated than normal to spend cash on jerseys, shirts, hats, etc.

I wouldn't be shocked if Dallas had similar or better success in Games 3, 4, and 6 of the first round.

 

[BigG44]

He's about a year and a half older and a winger, but Alex Killorn just signed for $2.55 million per year for two years.

Even though he's older, this is his first contract post ELC like Eakin as well. I'm inclined to say this is a pretty good comparable, and I'd say Eakin should reasonably push for at least a similar if not greater contract. Even if Killorn is slightly older, Eakin has slightly more experience and plays a more important position.

 

[BigG44]

This is old news, but I was busy yesterday:

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

Brayden Schenn's new two year deal with PHI pays him $2.25M and $2.75M for an AAV of $2.5M.

I can't really see why Eakin's deal would be difficult to close right now. I think you could reasonably argue they're even if Eakin wasn't slightly worth less. I think they match just to get him a vote of confidence.

If the negotiations drag on much longer, my guess would be they're seriously discussing a longer contract with the confidence that both sides know they can easily get a bridge done before camp.

Personally though, my guess would be this would be done before mid-July if not much sooner.

 

[BigG44]

QO are due today. Should see several non offers.

A big one to watch for will be Gaunce and Jeffrey.

 

[Bluesoma]

Is there a time on the deadline?

I get this feeling Jeffrey won't sign his.

Gaunce would if given one, which I think will be 50/50.

 

[BigG44]

Here they are:

Mark Stepneski ‏@StarsInsideEdge

The Dallas Stars issue qualifying offers to RFAs Brenden Dillon, Cody Eakin, Cameron Gaunce, Scott Glennie, Antoine Roussel.

 

[Bluesoma]

Follwing up with those they didn't

Mark Stepneski ‏@StarsInsideEdge 22s
Dallas Stars do not issue qualifying offers to Ryan Button, Dustin Jeffrey, Tristan King, Hubert Labrie, Austin Smith. They become UFAs

Not surprised at that. Happy they're offering Gaunce.

 

[BigG44]

So no surprises:

Mark Stepneski ‏@StarsInsideEdge

Dallas Stars do not issue qualifying offers to Ryan Button, Dustin Jeffrey, Tristan King, Hubert Labrie, Austin Smith. They become UFAs

They want Gaunce to be a veteran presence, and they aren't willing to pay one-way to Jeffrey.

 

[Bluesoma]

Let's admit it. We're all disappointed they didn't qualify King......


With Gaunce being qualified, makes me think that Meech is moving on. I wonder if Labrie will get an AHL contract with Texas or try with a different club.

 

[Stars99Lobo37]

That was quick.

 

[beepeearr]

So that's what, a coach, a goalie and 3 forwards gone from Texas's championship run already at least one D man promoted