Salary Cap: 2014-15 Cap / 2015 the Summer of the RFA D

[BigG44]

Comparable for Brenden Dillon

Jared Cowen: 4 years for $3.1 million
Luca Sbisa: 4 years for $2.175 million
Jared Spurgeon: 3 years for $2,666,667
Patrick Wiercioch: 3 years for $2 million
P.K. Subban: 2 years for $2.875 million
Nick Leddy: 2 years for $2.7 million
Michael Del Zotto: 2 years for $2.55 million
Dmitry Kulikov: 2 years for $2.5 million
T.J. Brodie: 2 years for $2.125 million
Chris Tanev: 1 year for $1.5 million

Comparable for Cody Eakin

Brandon Sutter: 3 years for $2,066,667
Colin Wilson: 3 years for $2 million
Kyle Palmieri: 3 years for $1,466,667
Nazem Kadri: 2 years for $2.9 million
Andrew Shaw: 2 years for $2 million
Marcus Johansson: 2 years for $2 million
Craig Smith: 2 years for $2 million
Sean Couturier: 2 years for $1.75 million
Lars Eller: 2 years for $1.325 million

Comparable for Antoine Roussel

Marcus Kruger: 2 years for $1.325 million
Kyle Clifford: 2 years for $1.075 million
Joakim Andersson: 2 years for $732,500
Zac Rinaldo: 2 year for $750,000
Jordan Nolan: 2 years for $700,000

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[BigG44]

My guess for Dillon is 2 years at $2.25 to $2.75

I think his usage will allow him to earn as much as some of the more offensive players on the list. Where they impact the team by scoring ... which he does a little as well ... he's constantly playing 20+ minutes against top competition. This raises his value. A 4 year contract takes him to free agency, so I say he gets no more than 3 years, but 2 years works better for the player.

My guss for Eakin is 2 years at $2 to $2.5 million

I think he's closest to Andrew Shaw, and the fact his agent will argue Eakin's Dallas' 2nd line center and used more than Shaw slightly. I can't see him justify as much money as Kadri and Stepan. If he goes 3 years I think the money will be about the same.

My guess for Roussel is 2 years at $950,000 to $1.15 million

I feel less confident about this one as Kruger was surprisingly a decent comparison. I through Rinaldo in the mix just to get a baseline for being a pest, fighter. Roussel also adds the PK ability of Kruger and Andersson though and he's had decent offense. The thing holding him back is his usage. He was a 4th liner last year playing under 10, and he's playing tweener 3rd/4th line minutes now. If he stays on his current pace and really does score 15 goals, I could see him getting closer to $1.25 or $1.5 million.

 

[Bjorn Le]

If Roussel score's 15 goals he will surely get 1.5 million. He'll probably hit 30 points if that is his point total. Which I don't expect, I'd expect more like 20.

 

[BigG44]

If Roussel score's 15 goals he will surely get 1.5 million. He'll probably hit 30 points if that is his point total. Which I don't expect, I'd expect more like 20.

I think Roussel is going to make them not want to pay Garbutt. His cost as a UFA will likely be higher.

 

[Hull Fan]

If Roussel score's 15 goals he will surely get 1.5 million. He'll probably hit 30 points if that is his point total. Which I don't expect, I'd expect more like 20.

He's got 11 points in 28 games. He's on a 33 point pace. If he only gets 20 he'll basically dry up the rest of the season and get under 1 million.

 

[BigG44]

This is obviously down the line ... but Eakin or Roussel will probably have to go in the next 3 or 4 years.

Long term, IMO, Eakin will end up on the wing in a Peverley type role. Roussel obviously is projecting to be more than a 4th liner. I don't know that Benn-Eakin-Roussel is a particularly strong Top 3 group of LWs. Their good obviously ... but I think you need some more skill.

I think Roussel gets moved before Eakin who is going to be more versatile. You add one more solid scoring LW to that mix, and you've got that position shored up for quite some time.

 

[Bjorn Le]

He's got 11 points in 28 games. He's on a 33 point pace. If he only gets 20 he'll basically dry up the rest of the season and get under 1 million.

He's been on a little scoring streak right now. Remember last season where he was above 50 point pace but dropped back? Expect it to happen again. That's generally what happens with third/fourth liners. If he score 30+ points, he'll be in the upper echelon of bottom six players with regards to scoring. Love to see it, don't expect it. He's practically a shoo-in for at least a million though. He's being recognized as a top tier pest, which will help his monetary value.

 

[BigG44]

I'm surprised Roussel isn't falling off his pace too much. His pace still has him at 12 goals and 28 points.

I don't think I'd change any of my guesses at this point on numbers.

 

[mc3488]

Since garbutt got 1.8, how much would roussel get? 2 million?

 

[BigG44]

Since garbutt got 1.8, how much would roussel get? 2 million?

Roussel as a RFA has little leverage. He should hover around $1 million and not much more.

 

[Cin]

I bet he get's a very similar number to Garbutt. They both bring the same exact stuff each game.

 

[BigG44]

I bet he get's a very similar number to Garbutt. They both bring the same exact stuff each game.

Unfortunately for RFAs though that almost never works out to be true. UFA years cost significantly more than RFA years. That's why all the comparables above are RFAs. Defenseman that are not nearly as good as Dillon this year will earn more money than him because they are unrestricted.

Give me Seguin any day of the week over Stastny .... Stastny's money will be greater than Seguin.

 

[mc3488]

I doubt he only gets 1 million. I'd be happy with 1-2 million though

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

So with all of your guesses being 2 years, you think all three will be on a bridge contract?

 

[TrillMike]

I think Dillon will end up getting 3 years at $3M. Just a guess.

 

[BigG44]

So with all of your guesses being 2 years, you think all three will be on a bridge contract?

Many teams do this, and I think it's an important practice.

It allows you to really bring down the hit on that 2nd contract. By that ... I mean in many cases you leave about 2 years of RFA for the player the next time you sit down. You give them a longer term deal .... 2 of which are at the lower, RFA price. It helps with the hit in theory.

That's why I think it makes sense Eakin and Dillon are the best options for a bridge. Dillon's trajectory is to be at least a Top 4 (really already is) and he's a consistent 20+ minutes a night defender. Those guys are already earning $4 and $5+ million in free agency. Eakin has similar high potential as a 2nd line center. Those guys are signing for already around $5 and $6 .. see a guy like Zajac who Eakin could have a similar career as. Rather than paying both 100% on UFA years, those last two RFA years could bring the money down a bit.

At 24 years old though, Roussel would be an UFA at the end of a 3 year deal. Most teams either try not to have the contract end right when a guy is a UFA (unless it's a 1 year deal), and you don't want to have negotiations every year with a guy.

That's why a 2 year makes sense to me with him. Plus the deal allows him to solidify if he's going to end up playing at a level of say Burrows ... or a level down to Ott ... or he's just a really good 4th liner that can play up the lineup. As the player/agent, I think you gamble that in two years Roussel will be worth significantly more than now. He's 24 and there could be more to his goal scoring. I doubt it. He seems good for 10 - 15, but not many predicted the explosion Burrows eventually had. It would be a relatively low risk gamble unless Roussel's game just entirely falls apart. His trajectory even if he doesn't get significantly better is already for the high $2's like Nystrom and probably more than him.

His value right now though as a RFA is actually creeping much closer to Marcus Kruger. Roussel's offense was already relatively similar to Marcus. The issue was usage. Antoine was a 4th liner last year, and he didn't play too many minutes. Kruger has been a Top 9 forward both seasons before he negotiated his contract. Roussel is playing against better competition this season, and he's taken on a comparable role to Kruger's in his 2 seasons leading up to the contract. His TOI is still low though compared to Kruger.

A small factor, but one that still might apply is position. Center's tend to earn more money than wings (not 100%, and not always significant) but it could be a factor. Regardless, more so than at the beginning of December, Kruger has become probably the best comparable I could find. With the cap being higher this year compared to the tighter cap situation last year, it would be reasonable to assume Roussel might even earn more than Marcus so I would make a small change to my guess on him. $1.15 would be the low end to somewhere less than $1.5. Once you go to just below $2 and over, you're getting into 40 point 2nd line players ... Cody Eakin essentially ... a guy who impacts every facet of the game including the PP.

 

[Captain Awesome]

I think Dillon will end up getting 3 years at $3M. Just a guess.

For Dillon I'm hoping we either do a bridge or give him something like 3.5x5 or 3.5x6 and lock him down for a long time at a low rate if he lets us. It's a little risky but if he has a big breakout season next year offensively or something it might be a sensible way to keep the cost down on him. Pretty much do what we did with Daley.

I'd be pretty impressed if Eakin got any of those comparables, though I guess if Kadri got paid only that much after the year he had last year it shouldn't be too difficult.

For some reason I'm having a hard time envisioning Roussel getting less than Garbutt, since I think Roussel is the better player, personally. Of the guys listed I could see Kruger making the most sense, but I also think Kruger would get a small bump because he has more offensive potential than Roussel does.

 

[tjcurrie]

This is obviously down the line ... but Eakin or Roussel will probably have to go in the next 3 or 4 years.

Long term, IMO, Eakin will end up on the wing in a Peverley type role. Roussel obviously is projecting to be more than a 4th liner. I don't know that Benn-Eakin-Roussel is a particularly strong Top 3 group of LWs. Their good obviously ... but I think you need some more skill.

I think Roussel gets moved before Eakin who is going to be more versatile. You add one more solid scoring LW to that mix, and you've got that position shored up for quite some time.

No 3C for Eakin? Roussel could be his LW. Garbutt his RW or possibly even have Garbutt on the 4th and have someone else fill his spot on the 3rd with Eakin and Roussel.

And I think Trillmike is right with the 3 mill per over 3. Something like that anyways.

 

[JeffP]

I'd love to keep Roussel, but ****.. if he plays relatively well that and his popularity is going to make him severe trade bait.
I'd love to see Eakin play his way into staying longer term, we havent had a strong ginger presence on this team since Mike Keane.
Dillon is a bit of a no-brainer. Big Defenseman.

 

[BigG44]

I'd love to keep Roussel, but ****.. if he plays relatively well that and his popularity is going to make him severe trade bait.
I'd love to see Eakin play his way into staying longer term, we havent had a strong ginger presence on this team since Mike Keane.
Dillon is a bit of a no-brainer. Big Defenseman.

Eakin is the 2nd line center until further notice. I was just playing around projecting the roster which really doesn't mean much of anything. Crazy things happen from one year to next so take what I was saying as just a hypothetical.

Essentially with development of Dickinson and Shore offensively, and Faksa's advanced defensive game and ideal size for the center position, in theory, Eakin would be a candidate for wing in several years. The issue with that is he'll already be getting paid likely as a quality center. That's why I could see him becoming trade bait down the line.

I just really enjoy contracts and numbers so I like trying to figure out there impacts down the line. If you're paying Eakin like a real 2nd line center, that could be cost prohibitive when you have 3 guys headed to potential elite level contracts in the next 2, 3 and 4 years (Nichushkin - hard to imagine a bridge, Benn, and Seguin). By the time these guys are getting paid, in theory, Dallas should be a contender, and realistically you're looking at a cap team. Sure the cap is going up to pretty surprising levels, but all contracts will jump as well overall. If a guy like Callahan is going to command $6 or $7 this summer, just imagine where Benn will be in 3 years. Last year, Perry was pushing $9. Benn's not that level of player yet, but he could be earning that on his next contract as salaries escalate.

Unless Roussel suddenly has a Burrows-like career jump in scoring, he should stay under $3 million you'd think over the next 4 years or so, but who knows. Good 3rd/4th line energy guys are already getting $2.5 right now. Maybe those players will be getting closer to $4 by then, but that just sounds awful.

 

[BigG44]

Orlov's new contract is a potential comparable for Dillon.

2 years for $4 million, $1.75 + $2.25, $2 million Cap Hit

IMO it further cements that Dillon will get $2 million or more. Orlov has more NHL experience, but Dillon has greater experience in a higher role.

 

[BigG44]

Lobo @ State of the Stars:

Bill Simpson ‏@GunnerStar99

Nill says Roussel is one of his fav players and already started negotiations. Will definitely be on team next year.

 

[MBTendy]

Awesome to hear!!

 

[aloonda*]

Lobo @ State of the Stars:

 

[mc3488]

Lobo @ State of the Stars:

Awesome to hear! So happy that my favorite player will most likely be resigned