Salary Cap: 2014-15 Cap / 2015 the Summer of the RFA D

[BigG44]

I just hope we don't overpay on the backend if we give to much term. However, Nil seems to be cautious giving out large sums of money over long periods of time so I can't see this being anything other than good news. Not to mention, Spezza seems like the ultimate professional and a class act so he may very well be looking to stay at a place he likes for a fair deal, as opposed to trying to scratch out every last penny and year he could get if he tested free agency.
My guess is 4 years 7m or 5 years by 6.5m

The new rules make it difficult to not overpay on the backend. If we knew the total number of year, I bet you we could all nail the deal within a few hundred thousand.

In his prime which he is now he's worth at least as much as Stastny. That means several years at $7 million or slightly more. That restricts the last years of the contract from being lower than $3.5 million.

I think it's safe to assume he'll get $7 .. and then just go down based on extra years. If you used Gaborik as somewhat of a template with a slightly higher initial salary ....

3 years at $7
4 years at $6.75
5 years at $6.3
7 years at $5.5

You can manipulate those numbers up and down a bit but not a ton. That's based on paying him at a premium for 4 years and then either using the 5th or 5th-7th as years to reduce the overall hit.

 

[BigG44]

This is what I previously played with. I think his prime number is $7, hopefully. I played with $7.5 and $8 as a worst case scenario.

These were 7 year deals, but I think it could be 5 too.

Year 1|8| 8| 8
Year 2|8| 8| 8
Year 3|8| 8| 8
Year 4|5.5| 6.5| 7.5
Year 5|4.5| 5.25| 6
Year 6|4| 4| 4
Year 7|4| 4| 4
Cap Hit|6| 6.25|6.5
Total $|42| 43.75| 45.5

Year 1| 7| 7| 7.5| 7.5
Year 2| 7| 7| 7.5| 7.5
Year 3| 7| 7| 7.5| 7.5
Year 4| 6.3| 6| 7.375| 6.5
Year 5| 5.95| 4.5| 6.375| 5.5
Year 6| 3.5| 3.5| 3.75| 3.75
Year 7| 3.5| 3.5| 3.75| 3.75
Cap Hit| 5.75| 5.5| 6.25| 6
Total $| 40.25| 38.5| 43.75| 42

 

[BigG44]

Here is the most money you could pay him with a 3 year prime payment of $7, $7.5, or $8 on 5 year deals and still reducing his pay to 50% in Year 5.

Essentially ... you can't fall more than 35% from the top number so to get Year 4 .... [Top Salary*0.35]+[Top Salary*0.5]. Year 5 is half of Top Salary.

$7 million in prime for 5 would be $6.09 million.
$7.5 million in prime for 5 would be $6.525 million.
$8 million in prime for 5 would be $6.96 million.

*If it wasn't clear, I'm consider prime the next 3 years and paying the same top salary. Dallas could reduce those years as well for even less money. This is just pretty much the biggest cap hit you could come up with and still back dive in Years 4 and 5.

 

[Captain Awesome]

I'm surprised everyone is saying 5-6, I don't think he signs with us for any less than 7 years. It gives him security and a chance to ride out some of the lows until more of our prospects mature. I don't see a problem with it, barring something dramatic happening he should be tradeable though the length of the contract.

As far as I'm concerned, with the way we've started he has leverage that he wouldn't have if we had a great start.

 

[Satan]

My guess is 6 years with a 6.25M caphit.

 

[BigG44]

I'm surprised everyone is saying 5-6, I don't think he signs with us for any less than 7 years. It gives him security and a chance to ride out some of the lows until more of our prospects mature. I don't see a problem with it, barring something dramatic happening he should be traceable though the length of the contract.

My favorite so far is the 7 year for $5.5 million (7+7+7+6+4.5+3.5+3.5). Makes him very movable if you ever needed quick space ... assuming he didn't get injured. Either at full price or retained ... look at Horcoff. I think you can confidently commit that long and he'd be happy with the amount of money he was getting.

 

[BigG44]

My guess is 6 years with a 6.25M caphit.

To make it compliant ... that'd be something like ....

7+7+7+7+5.95+3.5 or $6.24 per year. Wouldn't be bad at all.

 

[BigG44]

You could get exactly $6.25 over 6 with: 7.1+7+7+6.815+6.035+3.55

 

[Satan]

6.25M would be so great. We have so much ****ing cap space next summer.

 

[StarsTx]

The difference in Spezza and Horcoff is Spezza is a much more talented player scoring wise, but isn't exactly a great 2 way grinder type that helps on the pk and plays on the 4th line once his legs and back go. If Spezza's back goes and he is unable to produce points, you are stuck with a player that hurts your team. And it doesn't take long, I think of someone like Brad Richards but without the compliance buyout option. I could be wrong because I didn't take the time to do any research, but a situation like that pops into my head.
My gut tells me if they get a deal done this quickly it's gonna be a homerun for Nil meaning he either gets his choice of price or term that makes him happy.

 

[Dr Pepper]

I'm going to go all out and say 7 years, $5 mil per.

 

[StarsTx]

I'm going to go all out and say 7 years, $5 mil per.

That would be robbery by Nil but exactly along the lines I was thinking. He is either gonna take term at Nil's price or $ at Nil's term!

 

[BigG44]

I'm going to go all out and say 7 years, $5 mil per.

Something like .... 7+6+5.5+5+4.5+3.5+3.5

 

[Magic Mittens]

6.25 for 5 years is my guess

 

[aloonda*]

I'm going to go all out and say 7 years, $5 mil per.

hope so

 

[Troy McClure]

Last season he made $5 million. This season he's making $4 million. I wonder what he now considers a fair deal.

 

[Satan]

McKenzie said he anticipates that it should be done soon on Insider Trading. That's so sick.

 

[jason9090spezza]

I'm surprised with what people in here are offering.

I'd say 4~6 years, with a range of 5~6.5M per year. Anything longer or higher than this will be VERY risky, knowing that he has injury problems since day 1 in the NHL, and his play will eventually regress in time (not any time soon, but its not that far from now).

But will he resign after this year???

 

[beepeearr]

I'm surprised with what people in here are offering.

I'd say 4~6 years, with a range of 5~6.5M per year. Anything longer or higher than this will be VERY risky, knowing that he has injury problems since day 1 in the NHL, and his play will eventually regress in time (not any time soon, but its not that far from now).

But will he resign after this year???

McKenzie seems to think they are close to a deal

 

[Noodletoro]

The news kind of shocks me. I guess he sees the long term potential here and must like the city/locker room enough to want to stay. There also aren't exactly a ton of options for him in FA with the cap staying static that can both pay him and use him in a key role. Those that are available aren't much better than Dallas. We also know he doesn't want to play in a Canadian market which further narrows things down.

 

[BigG44]

Insider Trading is only available tonight in the Candian market. If anyone feels like transcribing ... you'd be my hero.

That said, Dreger was on TSN 1050 before Insider Trading and had this to say:

“Yes, that’s accurate. Bob has been working on this story for quite some time, as have the rest of us. But I don’t think anyone will be surprised to learn that they’re close. Real close, it sounds like, according to McKenzie, on a multi-year deal to keep Jason Spezza with the Dallas Stars.

“I mean, heck – we reported on Insider Trading early in the season, days into the season in fact, that Jim Nill and the Stars were pretty eager and had had at least some basic discussions with Spezza, which caught him a little bit off-guard. He wanted to kind of get used to the area, the organization, all of those things.

“They view him as valuable and a key piece of the Stars’ future moving forward. So details aren’t out, but I’m sure they’ll be circulating and surfacing in the days ahead.”

I love that it's Bobbie Mac. It's pretty much done if he's talking like this on air.

 

[BigG44]

Jim Nill is in Toronto for GM meetings. Wouldn't shock me based on what we're hearing if A) Spezza's agent is located in Toronto or B) came to Toronto to meet with Nill and this deal gets done before Nill lifts off for Dallas.

 

[thegoldenbrett]

He has 3 goals in 19 games, is a -10 in 19 games and has a iffy back. Yeah, lets lock him up long term.

 

[FrailSwan]

Outside of the Spezza talk and something that's interesting, Klingberg's in the final year of his ELC. If he produces like we think he can he'll get a decent first contract.

Now things get real interesting. After this season Dillon, Oleksiak, Klingberg, Nemeth, and Jokipakka will all be RFAs.

 

[Morry83]

He has 3 goals in 19 games, is a -10 in 19 games and has a iffy back. Yeah, lets lock him up long term.

Oh make sure you leave out the 14 assists/17 points part!