Well... I think players are drafted for what they could bring to a team, considering a guy who brings nothing (like a gifted offensive player soft like Anna Nicole Smith's belly circa 1999 who just can't spell defense, doubled with a bad temperament which means he will NEVER play a game in the NHL) should be drafted lower than a guy who brings something (like your average 3rd line grinder, something that projects to be Steve Downie). So you could say Downie was a "safe" pick for the Flyers.
A player that Steve Downie could be compared to is Steve Begin (since I live in Habland this is a rather easy comparison). There are players who play more a Downie-like game than Begin, but let's stick to Begin. He was drafted in 2nd round, 40th overall in 1996. One could argue that his ceiling wasn't high enough, so he wasn't drafted in the 1st round, and could be half-right. On the other hand, you had a skilled, high ceiling guy who had the potential to be a franchise player, drafted 4th OA on that year who played something like 3 or 4 games in the NHL. Do you think the team that drafted this guy, hindsight 20/20, would still do the same today, considerring they're bottom of the barrel currently, or draft a "safer" guy? (Begin is not the best example, and 1996 draft might go down as one of the worst crop EVER, even if very good players came out in later rounds). Considering only the two first rounds on this year, Begin would be very likely to go 1st round, hindsight 20/20 wise.
The point is : probably, someone in Philly thinks they're loaded enough in young talent to draft a guy like Downie in the 1st round.