GDT: #18 New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames: Lion King Edition

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Emperoreddy

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Apr 13, 2010
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Moore has been a good addition with his speed.

How did Rico not score towards the end on the open net?

Multiple open net chances at the end. Flames might of tied up some sticks but one should of bounced our way.

Doesn't matter since when you give up multiple bad goals it's hard to win. Especially when other things weren't going our way.
 

JimEIV

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Feb 19, 2003
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Seriously? Guys like Gelinas and Merrill terrify me much more than Moore. I think Moore actually makes confident plays with the puck.

Team gives up just about 31 shots per 60 while he's(Moore) on the ice no one is remotely that bad on the team. The team gives up a whopping 10 less shots per 60 when Schlemko is on the ice compared to Moore. And Merrill gives up close to 5 less shots per 60.

He doesn't provide anywhere close to the offense for how horrible his shots against are.
 

Bleedred

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This is why I don't trust advanced stats completely. I've seen some advanced stats (since there's like a bazillion of them) that say Merrill has been horrendous. Then the ones Jim has posted have said he hasn't been that bad.

It's like when all the advanced stats that Feed me a stray cat posted were saying that Salvador was TERRIBLE, which seemed to be the consensus around here and from the eye test. Then Tycobb posted another set of stats saying he wasn't really that bad at all.

Gionta is another example. Set of stats for years saying that Gionta is bottom 5-10 in the league at these random stats, then there's other one's saying he's near the top of the league in the lowest shots or goals allowed per 60 in the league.
 

JimEIV

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This is why I don't trust advanced stats completely. I've seen some advanced stats (since there's like a bazillion of them) that say Merrill has been horrendous. Then the ones Jim has posted have said he hasn't been that bad.

It's like when all the advanced stats that Feed me a stray cat posted were saying that Salvador was TERRIBLE, which seemed to be the consensus around here and from the eye test. Then Tycobb posted another set of stats saying he wasn't really that bad at all.

I don't know...I'm going pretty rudimentary. It's not much simpler than Shots against. Merrill is not even as close to as bad as Moore. Really no one is. You know, if Moore was sitting there with 10 points, maybe you say, hey you give a little to get a little...Severson is blowing him away offensively and is much better defensively and Merrill is better than both of them defensively.
 

JimEIV

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You can make Merrill look pretty bad with Corsi because he isn't generating very many shots. But from my perspective, generating shots doesn't tell the whole story defensively.
 

JimEIV

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Ice time and Merrill has trouble getting to the puck or taking it away.
Turnover stats are also subjective rink to rink.

Merrill has stunk so far.
I really hope he turns it around
.
You can keep saying it but there is mountain of evidence to prove otherwise.
 

Bleedred

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I'm about to give up with corsi, Andy Greene is our worst defenseman in corsi ratings this season. Good old Eric Gelinas leads the team in corsi. Reid Boucher is also up there, but he only played like 3 games.

But the other day, there was a graph that implied that Larsson and Greene were the best defense pairing in the league.

I give up. They're too inconsistent for me.

Just like half of them saying Gionta is terrible, while the other half say he's good. Most of them saying Salvador of the last 3 years was putrid, then a couple saying he led the team in a positive way at some particular stat.
 

schoenfeld

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Dec 10, 2006
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I'm about to give up with corsi, Andy Greene is our worst defenseman in corsi ratings this season. Good old Eric Gelinas leads the team in corsi. Reid Boucher is also up there, but he only played like 3 games.

b-b-b-b-b-ut advanced stats!!!

you don't even need to watch games anymore, thats far too inefficient and a misuse of your most important resource, time. also i don't even feel the need to eat solid foods anymore, i just blend grains and proteins into a shake before working at my tech job.
 

Bleedred

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b-b-b-b-b-ut advanced stats!!!

you don't even need to watch games anymore, thats far too inefficient and a misuse of your most important resource, time. also i don't even feel the need to eat solid foods anymore, i just blend grains and proteins into a shake before working at my tech job.

I think the problem with these advanced stats is that there's just becoming too many of them at this point.

It's almost like you could find that around 75% of players are basically bad at most of them or good at most of them, and the opposite at another few of them.
 

MadDevil

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I think Moore's skating makes him look better than he probably is. Not that he's been bad by any means, but I don't think he's been "clearly" better than anybody. Greene and Larsson have been the most consistent, but after that I think they've all had their ups and downs.
 

Sascha Goc

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I think the problem with these advanced stats is that there's just becoming too many of them at this point.

It's almost like you could find that around 75% of players are basically bad at most of them or good at most of them, and the opposite at another few of them.

I'm not a #fancystats guy, but I think they can be a useful tool when you use them with context in addition to watching the actual games.

I would imagine Gelinas would have favorable Corsi numbers becuase he's basically out there just to shoot the puck from the point , no?
 

njdevils1982

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Sep 8, 2006
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I think the problem with these advanced stats is that there's just becoming too many of them at this point.

It's almost like you could find that around 75% of players are basically bad at most of them or good at most of them, and the opposite at another few of them.


60% of the time it works every time
 

Bleedred

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I'm not a #fancystats guy, but I think they can be a useful tool when you use them with context in addition to watching the actual games.

I would imagine Gelinas would have favorable Corsi numbers becuase he's basically out there just to shoot the puck from the point , no?

Hey I don't think they're all bad or not useful. There's just too many of them at this point, where you can justify that almost every player is good and bad.

Corsi is only even strength I believe, so I don't think Gelinas would get them from his work on the power play.

I don't even think Gelinas is a bad posession player at all, he really isn't. It's just the fact that he's prone to some ghastly mistakes sometimes, that you just don't see from the other guys.
 

JimEIV

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I'm about to give up with corsi, Andy Greene is our worst defenseman in corsi ratings this season. Good old Eric Gelinas leads the team in corsi. Reid Boucher is also up there, but he only played like 3 games.

But the other day, there was a graph that implied that Larsson and Greene were the best defense pairing in the league.

I give up. They're too inconsistent for me.

Just like half of them saying Gionta is terrible, while the other half say he's good. Most of them saying Salvador of the last 3 years was putrid, then a couple saying he led the team in a positive way at some particular stat.

Greene and Larsson are the best, defensively. Neither one have been generating very many shots...they are only one the ice for 23 shot for per 60. I have browsed Defenseman in the past who I thought were more stay at home defenders and their corsi numbers always seem on the weaker side. I'd love to see Scott Stevens Corsi numbers for the 2000's. I bet they're not good....I bet someone like Oleg Tverdovsky blows him away.
 

Bleedred

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Greene and Larsson are the best, defensively. Neither one have been generating very many shots...they are only one the ice for 23 shot for per 60. I have browsed Defenseman in the past who I thought were more stay at home defenders and their corsi numbers always seem on the weaker side. I'd love to see Scott Stevens Corsi numbers for the 2000's. I bet they're not good....I bet someone like Oleg Tverdovsky blows him away.

I can only find corsi and advanced numbers tracked back to 2007-2008 on hockey reference.

I looked up Niedermayer for fun, he averaged a 51.2 rating over those last 3 years in the league.

Chris Pronger averaged a 51.9 rating from 07-08 to 11-12.

Brian Rafalski was a very good 57.8 from 07-08 to 10-11

Which brings me to look up Lidstrom, 56.7 from 07-08 to 11-12.

Shea Weber is only 50.4 from 07-08 to 15-16 and last year was the only between 11-12 up to present that he was above 50 percent.

Duncan Keith is 54.7 on average since they started tracking in 07-08.

Drew Doughty is at 54.7

Erik Karlsson at 53.8

PK Subban at 52.2

Ryan Suter at 50.8

So most of the top defensemen in the league are over 50 for their career. But a lot of these guys also produce quite a bit of offense too.
 

JimEIV

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I can only find corsi and advanced numbers tracked back to 2007-2008 on hockey reference.

I looked up Niedermayer for fun, he averaged a 51.2 rating over those last 3 years in the league.

Chris Pronger averaged a 51.9 rating from 07-08 to 11-12.

Brian Rafalski was a very good 57.8 from 07-08 to 10-11

Which brings me to look up Lidstrom, 56.7 from 07-08 to 11-12.

Shea Weber is only 50.4 from 07-08 to 15-16 and last year was the only between 11-12 up to present that he was above 50 percent.

Duncan Keith is 54.7 on average since they started tracking in 07-08.

Drew Doughty is at 54.7

Erik Karlsson at 53.8

PK Subban at 52.2

Ryan Suter at 50.8

So most of the top defensemen in the league are over 50 for their career. But a lot of these guys also produce quite a bit of offense too.
The highest rating (Rafalski) is by far the worst defenseman on this list.

This ask you to believe Rafalski was a better possession player than Lidstrom. Craziness.
 

Bleedred

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The highest rating (Rafalski) is by far the worst defenseman on this list.

This ask you to believe Rafalski was a better possession player than Lidstrom. Craziness.

I believe he was playing with Lidstrom for all the years on there, as it started in 07-08 which was his first post Devils season.

But I'd agree, he's the weakest I listed. And definitely weaker than Lidstrom, who had a lower rating.
 

mtnet

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Deep stats can reinforce or tear down perceived worth or effectiveness but in the end I think most of us ultimately fall back on the eye test, particularly with regard to defenseman. If the memories of Merrill or Gelinas making brutal game breaking errors is emblazoned on your memory, that tends to be what sticks while you're watching them ****ing up again out there.
 
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