16.5% chance making playoffs

[Beech]

it's crazy because there's actually a shit load of parity in the NHL. Worst team can beat the best team on any given night.

So to be basically eliminated in the first month of play for 3-4 straight seasons is actually incredible. Even most bad teams manage better than that.

you need to be even more worried.

The 20 game mark? that is well known. You know who else knows it? The league. So for the most part, the bulk of games 1 to 20 are scheduled between teams in a like on like fashion. The top 1/3 of teams from last season play against one another, the middle 1/3 does the same and the bottom 1/3 does the same. The hope is everyone plays to a 0.500 record, And keeps fans interested and consuming your product.

Pretty much every league knows this. The NFL goes so far as to make their schedule tilted towards teams playing their 3 extra games against like finishers from last year and they further add the top v top. m v m, b v b early season slant to skew things more and more.

So, if your last season's results were poor and you are out of it after 20 games? Good luck, games 21-60 will have a healthy dose of top and mid 1/3 teams. And, you are a bad team.

 

[OD99]

Aren’t you sunshines and rainbows.

Don’t squash hope, it’s no fun.

Who is squashing hope? Free will and all that...those are just numbers.

Team looks bad and their record is bad. Those 4 games we won at home seem a lifetime ago. Glad I used up a good portion of my 10 game packs when the vibes were high!

It was great while it lasted, can't wait to have the wins and energy that comes with it back again.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Who is squashing hope? Free will and all that...those are just numbers.

Team looks bad and their record is bad. Those 4 games we won at home seem a lifetime ago. Glad I used up a good portion of my 10 game packs when the vibes were high!

It was great while it lasted, can't wait to have the wins and energy that comes with it back again.

I thought it was a new thread, not an update to the original thread lol.

I went to two of those games in the four game stretch. It was an exciting time.

My desire to go to another has waned a bit. Winning equals excitement equals sales. Good theory anyways.

I plunked down for SOD though, I still have games to go to at some point!

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think the Sens will turn it around and put some win streaks together but the east is really strong this year and the teams they are trying to catch are gonna keep winning. I think they will catch up to Buffalo, Montreal and maybe Pittsburg but still miss the playoffs.

 

[BondraTime]

Lmaooooo probably like 16.5% ??? Same chance we have of making the playoffs haha

Much, much, much, much, much lower than 1/6 odds of going on a 7 game win streak.

Would be closer to 1/1000.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

14.7%

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

 

[Tuna99]

Sens will have to go:

42 - 21 - 1 to make the playoffs.

Don’t see that happening.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

13.7%…..Probability the team makes the playoffs, lower than the start of this thread, Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[swiftwin]

42% at moneypuck

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

 

[Senovision]

Sat, Dec 17	@Detroit	1:00 PM
Sun, Dec 18	@Minnesota	2:00 PM
Tue, Dec 20	@Winnipeg	8:00 PM
Thu, Dec 22	vsWashington	7:00 PM
Fri, Dec 23	vsDetroit	7:00 PM
Tue, Dec 27	vsBoston	7:00 PM
Thu, Dec 29	@Washington	7:00 PM
Sat, Dec 31	@Detroit	7:00 PM
Sun, Jan 1	vsBuffalo	7:00 PM
Tue, Jan 3	vsColumbus	7:00 PM
Sat, Jan 7	vsSeattle	7:00 PM
Mon, Jan 9	vsNashville	7:30 PM
Thu, Jan 12	@Arizona	9:00 PM

These next 13 games. It would be nice if we can go 8-5 or at worst 7-6. If we were to go 8-5 then we would probably be in at least the hunt for a bottom playoff spot by January 13th. Seven games are at home. 6 games are on the road.

 

[swiftwin]

Here are the odds I've found so far for 2022-12-16

42% Moneypuck
19.2% powerrankingsguru
13.7% hockey-reference
13.9% hockeyviz
8.48% numberfire

Seems like those that rely a bit more on the most advanced metrics like xGF have us quite a bit higher, whereas those that have us lower are more of the traditional vegas odds type sites that seem to focus on strength of schedule.

 

[SweSensFan]

42% at moneypuck
View attachment 622441

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

42% at moneypuck
View attachment 622441

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Seems abit optimistic but 13% sounds abit pessimistic on the other hand...

 

[Micklebot]

42% at moneypuck
View attachment 622441

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Not surprising, they simulate the remainder of the season based on their pregame prediction model, which uses stats like xG.

I'm not sure I'd fully buy into their predicted % but understanding how they got to it is important. They take into account a fair bit, and weigh recent games more heavily than older games, so if you're in the middle of a hot streak it can really skew things.

 

[SweSensFan]

Here are the odds I've found so far for 2022-12-16

42% Moneypuck
19.2% powerrankingsguru
13.7% hockey-reference
13.9% hockeyviz
8.48% numberfire

Seems like those that rely a bit more on the most advanced metrics like xGF have us quite a bit higher, whereas those that have us lower are more of the traditional vegas odds type sites that seem to focus on strength of schedule.

The guru seems fairly reasonable. I am alittle bit surprised about how low chances they give to the wings though..

 

[Micklebot]

The guru seems fairly reasonable. I am alittle bit surprised about how low chances they give to the wings though..

Guru is just an aggregate of a bunch of other sites, in the case of playoff odds, it's just two, the average of moneypuck and numberfire. Kind of useless if you ask me...

 

[Tuna99]

Sat, Dec 17	@Detroit	1:00 PM
Sun, Dec 18	@Minnesota	2:00 PM
Tue, Dec 20	@Winnipeg	8:00 PM
Thu, Dec 22	vsWashington	7:00 PM
Fri, Dec 23	vsDetroit	7:00 PM
Tue, Dec 27	vsBoston	7:00 PM
Thu, Dec 29	@Washington	7:00 PM
Sat, Dec 31	@Detroit	7:00 PM
Sun, Jan 1	vsBuffalo	7:00 PM
Tue, Jan 3	vsColumbus	7:00 PM
Sat, Jan 7	vsSeattle	7:00 PM
Mon, Jan 9	vsNashville	7:30 PM
Thu, Jan 12	@Arizona	9:00 PM

These next 13 games. It would be nice if we can go 8-5 or at worst 7-6. If we were to go 8-5 then we would probably be in at least the hunt for a bottom playoff spot by January 13th. Seven games are at home. 6 games are on the road.

If they go 7-6 in the next 13 games they will be a .500 hockey team and probably tied for last in their division (they are currently last)

If they go 7-6 and get to game 42 with exactly 42 points, will have to go 27-13 to get to 96 points which is a .675 win percentage the rays of the season

 

[slamigo]

Without Norris, we aren't going very far. Not even a sniff of a playoff spot.

 

[Micklebot]

Without Norris, we aren't going very far. Not even a sniff of a playoff spot.

Done pretty good without him the last 10 games.

Hopefully he'll be back soon though.

 

[Senovision]

The Islanders are currently in the last wild card playoff spot.
If the Islanders went 5-7 the next 12 games they would have 45 points after 42 games.
If we go 8-5 the next 13 games we would have 44 points after 42 games.
That would make things interesting after 42 games.

 

[Cosmix]

Here are the odds I've found so far for 2022-12-16

42% Moneypuck
19.2% powerrankingsguru
13.7% hockey-reference
13.9% hockeyviz
8.48% numberfire

Seems like those that rely a bit more on the most advanced metrics like xGF have us quite a bit higher, whereas those that have us lower are more of the traditional vegas odds type sites that seem to focus on strength of schedule.

Moneypuck appears to be a major outlier.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Get this lineup healthy, bolster the roster with an RHD to play behind Zub and make a couple of additions to the 4th line so we can see what shakes out the rest of the way.

 

[Sun God Nika]

42% is pretty close to a coin flip. The sens have fought back from worse.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Ottawa is .500 after 30 games
The Blues were 2 points under .500 after 30 games the year they won the cup

The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

 

[swiftwin]

Ottawa is .500 after 30 games
The Blues were 2 points under .500 after 30 games the year they won the cup

The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

Pretty sure the Blues fell quite a bit further behind before turning their season around.

 

[Micklebot]

Pretty sure the Blues fell quite a bit further behind before turning their season around.

Not really, they were 3-2 from 31-35 and from game 31 to 48 they were 9-8-1, more like they treaded water, or slowly improving over their poor start. They really turned things around with an 11 game winning streak from game 49-59.