16.5% chance making playoffs

[Flamingo]

Love me some Micah.

According to him, our goal differential is a good indicator of where we should be in the standings. Very good 5v5 offense, bad power play. Every other quality is average.

 

[Micklebot]

Love me some Micah.

According to him, our goal differential is a good indicator of where we should be in the standings. Very good 5v5 offense, bad power play. Every other quality is average.

Pretty much what I've been saying with a bit of extra stuff about sequencing luck.

 

[KingAlfie11]

We are not going to be a playoff team until our D is improve period. This is the next step to improve our defense and maybe I hope having a new coach with a new identity, because right now we have none. And we have won only 2 game when we score the 1st goal (2-5)

 

[Flamingo]

Pretty much what I've been saying with a bit of extra stuff about sequencing luck.

The sequencing luck bit was interesting. The fact that regression for high-leverage minutes (not sure exactly what that means, but I infer it means moments when the score is close) isn't predictive of longer-term success jibes with conventional understanding of score-effect tendencies, like of a team with the lead to play with less urgency, and give up more goals/60 than average. While the Sens probably took advantage of that tendency in the Knights game near-comeback, their scoring has otherwise seemed to be kind of randomly distributed.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Tankathon | 2024 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

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[bashbros32]

Tankathon | 2024 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

2024 NHL Draft order tracker updated after every game. NHL lottery simulator to determine the top overall pick. View traded picks and playoff matchups.

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my brother in christ it's november 8th...

 

[BankStreetParade]

Love me some Micah.

According to him, our goal differential is a good indicator of where we should be in the standings. Very good 5v5 offense, bad power play. Every other quality is average.

So it's a pretty decent team, sorely missing two players who help anchor the part of the game we've struggled with the most (special teams) and which seems to have run into an unusually bad result despite their play so far. This seems to be the case where the analytics are confirming what the eyes are seeing.

Edit: Look at our goal differential relative to the teams around us in the standings. I don't think I've ever really seen this before.

26. Arizona -14
27. Vancouver -8
28. Anaheim -22
29. San Jose -13
30. Ottawa 0 <- We don't belong here
31. St Louis -16
32. Columbus -25

I've gone through league standings every year dating back to 2005-06 and found 1 team in that whole time that had even close to an even goal differential in the bottom 5 of league standings - Tampa Bay, -2, in the shortened 2012-13 season. You might also make an argument for Montreal, -14, in 2011-12 but it's a little more iffy.

Bottom line: these are extraordinarily bad results given the level of play.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

We made an insane comeback to get into the playoffs in 2015. We are not even close to being that far out (yet) and I would wager have a better team today. Bring back Hammond!

 

[DJB]

I don't car about making the playoffs this year. I want this team to take a step this year.

They clearly have

We've taken at most a half step. Need that full step forward now

 

[IceColdOx]

Never tell me the odds. - H. Solo

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

I mean, Sens can still make a wildcard spot. I was hoping for top 3 in Atlantic with the roster changes though, but we got boned by injuries to our top C and D and G. That's hard to recover from.
I wouldn't cry a whole lot if the new owners cleaned house from Dorion on down though. It's time for changes in those areas.

 

[LatteLarrys]

I wouldn't cry a whole lot if the new owners cleaned house from Dorion on down though. It's time for changes in those areas.

I'd cry a whole if the new owners didn't do that lol

 

[lunadio]

Need to win 68% of remaining games just won't happen its almost impossible to run at that kinda clip in nhl these days . To sustain it over that period like I said before best was Tampa at 65.9 percent over same period since 2017 no others can match it .unless top six start scoring 6 goals ever game this team are dead man walking for rest of year.

 

[Alex1234]

I mean, Sens can still make a wildcard spot. I was hoping for top 3 in Atlantic with the roster changes though, but we got boned by injuries to our top C and D and G. That's hard to recover from.
I wouldn't cry a whole lot if the new owners cleaned house from Dorion on down though. It's time for changes in those areas.

They probably need around 100 points to make the playoffs
Thats 89 points in 67 games = .664% (only Boston ,Vegas , NJD and Winnipeg right now have a better w% )
They play at .367 right now
What makes you think they can make the PO?
Its over my friend

 

[lunadio]

They probably need around 100 points to make the playoffs
Thats 89 points in 67 games = .664% (only Boston ,Vegas , NJD and Winnipeg right now have a better w% )
They play at .367 right now What makes you think they can make the PO,s ? It's over my friend.

You are absolutely right Boston Vega njd and Winnipeg have better winning percentage but that's over very short span ottawa needs to do it for rest of season only Tampa has accomplished that ince 2017 till now no other team has done it that long

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Need to win 68% of remaining games just won't happen its almost impossible to run at that kinda clip in nhl these days . To sustain it over that period like I said before best was Tampa at 65.9 percent over same period since 2017 no others can match it .unless top six start scoring 6 goals ever game this team are dead man walking for rest of year.

The odds of us making it in general are pretty low. If we’re putting it on the shoulders of a coach who has a .400 head coaching in pro hockey, then just call it a season right now.

 

[Agent Zub]

They probably need around 100 points to make the playoffs
Thats 89 points in 67 games = .664% (only Boston ,Vegas , NJD and Winnipeg right now have a better w% )
They play at .367 right now
What makes you think they can make the PO?
Its over my friend

crazy 4 years in a row of being eliminated in the first month?

 

[Mingus Dew]

crazy 4 years in a row of being eliminated in the first month?

Not that crazy. By 20 games in it's usually pretty clear which teams are good and which teams are bad.

The NHL is so competitive that a prolonged losing streak basically ends your season.

No different in the NFL where going 0-4 often means you're out of the playoffs.

 

[lunadio]

Hi folks thought I would update stats for this year for some who are bit confused about realistic possibility of making playoffs . Ottawa now needs 44.5 wins versus only 20.5 losses they need to be at 69% winning average they are 38.235 there projected point puts the at 82 for this season realistically well short of playoffs I'm afraid don't want to be a downer just trying to be realistic and help understand the reality of our situation .

 

[Agent Zub]

Not that crazy. By 20 games in it's usually pretty clear which teams are good and which teams are bad.

The NHL is so competitive that a prolonged losing streak basically ends your season.

No different in the NFL where going 0-4 often means you're out of the playoffs.

it's crazy because there's actually a shit load of parity in the NHL. Worst team can beat the best team on any given night.

So to be basically eliminated in the first month of play for 3-4 straight seasons is actually incredible. Even most bad teams manage better than that.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Aren’t you sunshines and rainbows.

Don’t squash hope, it’s no fun.

 

[Chabot84]

Go on a 7 game winning streak and then re-do the math. Seems impossible now but we are a win streak away from way better odds

 

[Boud]

Go on a 7 game winning streak and then re-do the math. Seems impossible now but we are a win streak away from way better odds

What are the odds of this team going on a 7 game win streak lol

 

[Chabot84]

What are the odds of this team going on a 7 game win streak lol

Lmaooooo probably like 16.5% ??? Same chance we have of making the playoffs haha

 

[Cosmix]

The odds of us making it in general are pretty low. If we’re putting it on the shoulders of a coach who has a .400 head coaching in pro hockey, then just call it a season right now.

What is the GM's winning percentage?