1 in 16 baby

[barrywpg]

Hey OP, it’s 1 in 8 baby ......

I guess you're assuming the playin round won't be played.
If it is here is someone who put much more work into figuring out the odds.
Alto the Jets remain close to 1 in 16
Wheeler: 10 thoughts after a crazy 2020 NHL Draft Lottery

 

[Whileee]

Correct me if I'm wrong:

It's possible that the Islanders won the pick. So if they get eliminated the pick is theirs (if they were the team that won)?

Not how it works. In the second lottery round all the eliminated teams will have a 1 in 8 chance of the #1 pick.

 

[SUX2BU]

I guess you're assuming the playin round won't be played.
If it is here is someone who put much more work into figuring out the odds.
Alto the Jets remain close to 1 in 16
Wheeler: 10 thoughts after a crazy 2020 NHL Draft Lottery

1 in 8 is 12.5% of which several posters are quoting

 

[barrywpg]

see above post

It's only 1 in 8 if the Jets lose in the playin round, roughly 50% chance - so currently 1 in 16

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If the season is scrapped, the Jets will have a 12.5% chance at the #1 pick.

If the play-in commences, the Jets will have a 12.5% chance at the #1 pick if they lose to the Flames. If they beat the Flames, they have no chance at the #1 pick.

I hope the season gets scrapped at this point. I’m not really invested in late summer playoffs at all.

Kind of mixed feelings about the play-in round. I like to think we could do some damage, but who knows how the players will play under these conditions?

If it is scrapped, we get a shot in the second lottery and if we don't win we are back at #12, unless #1 is drawn by a team that was behind us. Then we get #13. Move on.

Right now, I am concerned about the 2021 season. Will it start before there is a vaccine? How long will it last before some team is eliminated by Covid-19?

Herd immunity is still a very long way off. The virus is still in the communities. It is still very easily spread. This is nowhere near over.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Correct me if I'm wrong:

It's possible that the Islanders won the pick. So if they get eliminated the pick is theirs (if they were the team that won)?

If I understand what you are saying, I believe you are wrong. No specific team has won it yet. After the play-in round is over (either played or cancelled) there is another lottery draw for #1.

 

[Larabee]

We should just play the Moose players. No point getting our A-team involved in a summer tournament. Let them rest for next season.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Trade 1 OA to Ottawa for 3 & 5, draft the best C in the draft + the best RHD.

Oh. I like that idea

 

[wpgfishfan]

Correct me if I'm wrong:

It's possible that the Islanders won the pick. So if they get eliminated the pick is theirs (if they were the team that won)?

I wish that was the case since the Jets actually won the lottery. Unfortunately it's not

 

[rubikscube]

Not how it works. In the second lottery round all the eliminated teams will have a 1 in 8 chance of the #1 pick.

In that case: go calgary?

 

[ryerockarola]

Do you have a link?

here's a link to 12th-seeded Team E winning the lottery

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2020...to-maple-leafs-first-overall-draft-selection/

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

In that case: go calgary?

In the interests of proper pro-Calgary cheering, should I be yelling:

a. Go Flames Go
b. Let's Go Flames
c. Oilers Suck

 

[ps241]

This is a season I would say one wants to be around the playoffs if possible especially if they have a Vezina level goalie.

As a guy that has businesses in Florida and Texas and is living the COVID nightmare first hand I just think it could greatly impact these playoffs and possibly in a bizarre way. Which players and teams might get hit?? Will that cause a series of odd upsets?

A 12.5% chance at the 1st overall pick would be a nice conciliation prize if the Flames beat us but we only have so many kicks at the Cat with Scheifele and Hellebuyck. I want this Jets team to make the COVID-19 version of the playoffs and just be present because I think it’s going to get funky and luck could play a huge part.

 

[10Ducky10]

I'd find it really hard to cheer for Calgary...unless they were playing NSH, Boston, Ducks or Vegas!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is a season I would say one wants to be around the playoffs if possible especially if they have a Vezina level goalie.

As a guy that has businesses in Florida and Texas and is living the COVID nightmare first hand I just think it could greatly impact these playoffs and possibly in a bizarre way. Which players and teams might get hit?? Will that cause a series of odd upsets?

A 12.5% chance at the 1st overall pick would be a nice conciliation prize if the Flames beat us but we only have so many kicks at the Cat with Scheifele and Hellebuyck. I want this Jets team to make the COVID-19 version of the playoffs and just be present because I think it’s going to get funky and luck could play a huge part.

I expect luck to play a part - doesn't it always?

But I don't care to win a trophy if it is just blind dumb luck. There is very little satisfaction in that.

If Helle is lights out and/or Schief & Laine step up and we just outscore opponents, great. So what we were not the best team in the league all year.

 

[ps241]

I expect luck to play a part - doesn't it always?

But I don't care to win a trophy if it is just blind dumb luck. There is very little satisfaction in that.

If Helle is lights out and/or Schief & Laine step up and we just outscore opponents, great. So what we were not the best team in the league all year.

Luck is always a big factor which is fine. This season there may be the added level of COVID luck? Does your team or a series get impacted by COVID?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Luck is always a big factor which is fine. This season there may be the added level of COVID luck? Does your team or a series get impacted by COVID?

If Covid ends up deciding the outcome, then the outcome loses legitimacy, IMO.

A trophy won on the toss of a coin has very little meaning. It is just about how big a factor the luck is. Some is OK. Too much is ....... well, too much.

 

[KingBogo]

Man I wish the NHL just waited until after the play in round to do the draft lottery. Dumb, dumb move. Now we have to live through some Frankenstein play-in round where half this board is cheering for the Jets and half is cheering against them. It will be akin to the board cheering for a tank during the playoffs. F*** I wish the NHL was smarter than this.

 

[KingBogo]

I expect luck to play a part - doesn't it always?

But I don't care to win a trophy if it is just blind dumb luck. There is very little satisfaction in that.

If Helle is lights out and/or Schief & Laine step up and we just outscore opponents, great. So what we were not the best team in the league all year.

Mort, the Jets will have to win 5 rounds against the rest of the league. We might have a couple lucky moments along the way, but there is no way anyone lifts the cup unless the play lights out hockey for 2 months, just like any other year. By the time they are down to 8 teams, the rust will have been shaken off and you will have to beat the best the rest of the way.

 

[ps241]

Man I wish the NHL just waited until after the play in round to do the draft lottery. Dumb, dumb move. Now we have to live through some Frankenstein play-in round where half this board is cheering for the Jets and half is cheering against them. It will be akin to the board cheering for a tank during the playoffs. F*** I wish the NHL was smarter than this.

Yea it was an odd call. Why did they think they had to rush it?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort, the Jets will have to win 5 rounds against the rest of the league. We might have a couple lucky moments along the way, but there is no way anyone lifts the cup unless the play lights out hockey for 2 months, just like any other year. By the time they are down to 8 teams, the rust will have been shaken off and you will have to beat the best the rest of the way.

That's what I'm hoping for. But the speculation was that Covid could make luck the prime factor. There is more to it than just shaking off the rust. Or at least there might be.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Man I wish the NHL just waited until after the play in round to do the draft lottery. Dumb, dumb move. Now we have to live through some Frankenstein play-in round where half this board is cheering for the Jets and half is cheering against them. It will be akin to the board cheering for a tank during the playoffs. F*** I wish the NHL was smarter than this.

Did someone say... the T-word?

Actually, the sensible among us are hoping these stupid games never happen, and we can in good conscience cheer for the Jets winning the next round of the lottery.

 

[ps241]

Did someone say... the T-word?

Actually, the sensible among us are hoping these stupid games never happen, and we can in good conscience cheer for the Jets winning the next round of the lottery.

With $500 million to split up money will likely prevail and they will forge ahead. I have less of a challenge with this decision than most. It’s a business and it should be allowed to open back up without fans. It’s not an essential service but most businesses are allowed to reopen with restrictions now so they are within their rights and time will tell how it goes.

The question becomes how messy might it get if/when cases get reported of players testing positive during playoff series? The protocols around that challenge will be interesting.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Man I wish the NHL just waited until after the play in round to do the draft lottery. Dumb, dumb move. Now we have to live through some Frankenstein play-in round where half this board is cheering for the Jets and half is cheering against them. It will be akin to the board cheering for a tank during the playoffs. F*** I wish the NHL was smarter than this.

Definitely cheering for the Jets, start to finish. But a shot at 1OA would be a nice consolation prize if we go out early.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yea it was an odd call. Why did they think they had to rush it?

Just to have something to generate a little fan interest, especially for those teams who are done.

I would not have had a play-in round at all, if it was up to me. And yes, I realize that would mean the Jets were already out. That would not have been my reasoning. I would have done it in order to keep things as close to normal as possible.

I'm still not confident that the PO as proposed will ever happen. Covid-19 in the US is worse now than ever.