Edit: sorry for the tone, but it was unfair to make a dig at ReginKarlssonLehner because he asked you to consider reality you don't like.
What? In what way was his comment relevant to the discussion? He was taking a shot at Spezza because he didn't like what I said about Karlsson. It's literally the opposite of what you are saying.
It's way to early in Karlsson's career to project what he'll be in another five years.
Not really. We look at players and project what they will be in the future all the time. Nothing is set in stone and I believe I said in my post about Karlsson that I'm not saying he can't improve -- just that most of the information that we have suggests he will always be average to below average defensively and amazing offensively.
Again, there's nothing wrong with that. It still makes him one of the best, if not the best, defencemen in the league.
Do you think Spezza is just as bad defensively back then as he is today?
No, but I don't think he's much better defensively than he was 300 games into his career.
You cleared that up in your last line, so thank you. Again, I apologize for the tone. Re-reading it that post, I realized it was very aggressive.
No worries man, it happens.
I actually did not see what was irrelevant as I interpreted RKL's statement as questioning your stance on Spezza's defensive resurgence rather than offensive resurgence. It's still somewhat suspect to believe that 13 game (or whatever it was) stretch of brilliant defence from Karlsson and his incredible 30gp tenure in Finland were a fluke, but it's true it was a small sample size.
I can pretty much guarantee you that the intention of his post had nothing to do with defensive resurgence.
I think using the Potvin statement here is somewhat disingenuous. Potvin clearly is applying that blanket statement to the case of the average defenceman. Karlsson's circumstances are far from average given his age (so young) and his injury, which derailed his defensive development.
I don't think that he applies it only to average defencemen (or that its use is disingenuous at all), though I do agree with you that Karlsson is far from average. However, players tend to develop natural tendencies in their games which we see very often from players. I think, and especially with the freedom that Karlsson is given and the way that he is treated, Karlsson has developed those tendencies and you can see them in the way that he plays -- he doesn't battle well along the boards, he's weak in front of the net, he cheats out of the zone, he sometimes just gives no effort in the defensive zone and allows the other team to grab the puck first and he can have trouble at times pivoting. These are things that he's always had trouble with and some can be attributed to his size and others to mental mistakes, but ultimately they are not things that we've seen improve really over his tenure with the Sens. That's not to say they can't improve, but there are definitely some aspects that I don't see him improving on there.
This past year has been a write-off for Karlsson due to the injury. It's what everyone has said; it takes a year to get back to normal from an Achilles injury. He was abysmal in September/October but has been playing much more consistent defence since January 1st.
I think he's been playing well. However, he still hasn't been great defensively. He has been average in some games to below average in others. The biggest thing he brings to a game is his offence and when he's really skating well and moving he keeps the puck in the other end and impacts the game in a way that allows his defensive deficiencies to be largely ignored (or he's playing solid in his own end, and on those nights he's the best defenceman in the world).
I'm of the opinion that we forget what Karlsson did between February 14th, 2013 and February 14th, 2014, and just evaluate from here on out. Forget the last 60gp and pretend he's at 232gp if you want to look at it from Potvin's angle, because those were spent just getting back to the level he was at when he went down in the 232nd game. I honestly have no idea whether he will ever reach the heights he did in early 2013, but I guess we'll find out.
I can respect this stance. I'm not saying anything is set in stone. I just think that we've seen more evidence that suggest Karlsson will be the cream of the crop offensively while always carrying questions defensively rather than him becoming very good defensively while also keeping his offence. I think if Karlsson is going to really tighten up his defensive game there will be a noticeable drop-off in his offensive output.