Speculation: ‘20-21 Trade/Free Agency Thread

[bracer028]

I hate Murray and have wanted him gone longer than most on here but this take is kinda crap. You have no idea if he did or didn’t offer Rakell. The only thing known is we wouldn’t part with Zegras or Drysdale. When he returns a player like Laine; he’s not coming here without Zegras or Drysdale included.

Murray valued our pieces too much. Would have sold everyone outside of zegras

On another note. What do we do with bald when his contract is done?

 

[lwvs84]

Murray valued our pieces too much. Would have sold everyone outside of zegras

On another note. What do we do with bald when his contract is done?

Weren't the reports that we wouldn't part with Zegras? I thought that was the sticking point, Ducks had a very good offer but wouldn't upgrade it to Zegras to get PLD.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Weren't the reports that we wouldn't part with Zegras? I thought that was the sticking point, Ducks had a very good offer but wouldn't upgrade it to Zegras to get PLD.

You can't really debate facts with someone who's making it up as he goes along.

 

[lwvs84]

You can't really debate facts with someone who's making it up as he goes along.

Ah ok, thought it was something I missed.

 

[bracer028]

Weren't the reports that we wouldn't part with Zegras? I thought that was the sticking point, Ducks had a very good offer but wouldn't upgrade it to Zegras to get PLD.

Exactly...they knew zegras was off the table and the ducks were 3rd in the running for him.

 

[bracer028]

You can't really debate facts with someone who's making it up as he goes along.

Wrong again...like how you were wrong to not blow up the team 2 years back

 

[Trojans86]

Me and 405 wanted to burn the team down the year kesler and perry fell off a cliff

I was definitely in that camp as well and a ton of people talked a lot of crap to me telling me tanking never works. I'm not for tanking as in losing to get a better pick, but I am for selling older assets for younger assets

 

[Trojans86]

We are rebuilding. Differing opinions on how to do it are fine but at some point the tank crowd has to understand that rebuilding isn't simply and only burning it down.

My point is you need elite talent. Every first round pick is a roll of the dice and if you dont have the talent in the system you should be looking to get rid of older assets to get more rolls. Definitely some value to role models and vets but a middling team with no elite talent in the system is a recipe for long term disappointment

 

[bracer028]

My point is you need elite talent. Every first round pick is a roll of the dice and if you dont have the talent in the system you should be looking to get rid of older assets to get more rolls. Definitely some value to role models and vets but a middling team with no elite talent in the system is a recipe for long term disappointment

There was a breakdown of the percentage of getting elite level talent.

Picks 1-3 had about an 80% chance

Picks 16-25 had about 16%.

I forgot what it was in the middle. I said to blow up the team. Get picks for rakell, silf, henrique, even bald and gibson. all in the late teens to early 20s. Coupled with our picks, we would have at least 3-4 early picks and 4-8 late round picks. We could have had some generational talents and elite players within 3-4 years, but nooooo. everyone was crying about me and 405 saying to blow it all up. Theres about 90% of the posters on here that says we should just be first round fodder year in and year out.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

My point is you need elite talent. Every first round pick is a roll of the dice and if you dont have the talent in the system you should be looking to get rid of older assets to get more rolls. Definitely some value to role models and vets but a middling team with no elite talent in the system is a recipe for long term disappointment

What team are you describing, though, because its certainly not this one. We do have elite talent in the system and will probably add more the next draft. The last two drafts we've made 3 picks in the top 40 and I'd bet we do it again this year. Like I said, you seem mostly hung up on parts of it because it's in your head that it's the only way to go about things, but it's not.

If anything we're having our cake and eating it too, might as well enjoy it.

 

[Trojans86]

What team are you describing, though, because its certainly not this one. We do have elite talent in the system and will probably add more the next draft. The last two drafts we've made 3 picks in the top 40 and I'd bet we do it again this year. Like I said, you seem mostly hung up on parts of it because it's in your head that it's the only way to go about things, but it's not.

If anything we're having our cake and eating it too, might as well enjoy it.

I was actually mostly referring to the past. I think we got lucky with zegras and maybe Drysdale and now are one elite piece away if things go well.

 

[duckpuck]

Ottawa is doing a version of this right now and while its early it appears to be going quite poorly.

Disagree. Ottawa and LA have the best prospect pools and Ottawa has elite talent in its system. Both team shave been tanking. It is possible Ottawa's awful owner could mess it up, but they should be very good in 2 years. And to be clear, Ottawa traded Karsson before the 2018-19 season and the tank started after that. Both teams are ahead of schedule.

I understand you not wanting to pay for a bad product but what's been put out there for the past 3 years IS a bad product. Why would more of the same with Bob at the helm be different? Tanking doesn't inherently mean you're going to be bad for a decade. Being really bad resulted in a lot of Cups between the Pens/Hawks/Kings. If you think us tanking for a year or two would turn us into Edmonton or Buffalo then that means you think our front office as a whole is and will be as inept as their front offices. Even then I'd still wager Edmonton will win before we do as of right now. You get the elite players first and then let the GM do his job and fill in the rest.

This x 1000. DVM doesn't want to tank - but that status quo and current clear trajectory are awful. The worst thing is to be permanently mediocre/bad.

Chicago missed the playoffs 9 of the 10 seasons prior to ‘08-09. They picked 16, 8, 23, 10/11, 9/29, 21, 14, 3, 7, 3, 1, 11. They had 17 picks in the ‘04 draft. 5 played more than 100 games (comically, Troy Brouwer played the most with 851 games as a 7th round pick, nobody else got past 433). They had 5 picks in the top 54 picks that year, 2 never played in the NHL, Barker, Bolland, and Bickel were their prizes.

LA missed 6 straight season before returning to the playoffs (would have been 7 if not for the lockout) before making the playoffs in ‘09-10. Picks starting in ‘03 - 13/26/27, 11, 11 (Kopitar), 11/17, 4, 1/13, 2, 5,

Pittsburgh absolutely demolished their team, missed 4 straight seasons (5 with the lockout) - but got TWO generational talents in Crosby and Mallon back to back.. They picked 5, 1, 2, 1, 2 in that span, which is statistically essentially impossible at this point in addition to the generational thing. Let’s just agree to agree that their model is irrelevant 99.9999999% of the time

You can say “they only mega-tanked for 5 years”, but they were getting mid-round picks the Ducks were not getting for years prior to that. The Kings hit on Quick as a 3rd and Kopitar at 11 (meaning 10 teams passed on Kopitar and every team passed on Quick), which helped. The Chicago and Pittsburgh models won’t work any more.

What about Toronto? And again, as I've posted elsewhere, Edmonton screwed up their situation. But they have far more talent on their flawed roster than the ducks have. And that is because of tanking (intentional or not).

And your Chicago example is flawed. Something pretty important happened in 2007 - Bill Wirtz died (just a few months after they drafted Kane). Wirtz was an awful owner and really didn't try to win.

You're also ignoring Tampa Bay which has several high picks.

In fact, you're ignoring my prior post where I detailed how almost all the current better teams have multiple top 5 picks. In the past 15 years, how many cup winning teams haven't had at least 1 top 3 pick on their roster? Currently, the ducks have none.

I'll wait for your answer.

 

[Vipers31]

Should have traded rakell and some garbage for pld

They got Laine+. You just can’t counter that with Rakell+.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Disagree. Ottawa and LA have the best prospect pools and Ottawa has elite talent in its system. Both team shave been tanking. It is possible Ottawa's awful owner could mess it up, but they should be very good in 2 years. And to be clear, Ottawa traded Karsson before the 2018-19 season and the tank started after that. Both teams are ahead of schedule.



This x 1000. DVM doesn't want to tank - but that status quo and current clear trajectory are awful. The worst thing is to be permanently mediocre/bad.



What about Toronto? And again, as I've posted elsewhere, Edmonton screwed up their situation. But they have far more talent on their flawed roster than the ducks have. And that is because of tanking (intentional or not).

And your Chicago example is flawed. Something pretty important happened in 2007 - Bill Wirtz died (just a few months after they drafted Kane). Wirtz was an awful owner and really didn't try to win.

You're also ignoring Tampa Bay which has several high picks.

In fact, you're ignoring my prior post where I detailed how almost all the current better teams have multiple top 5 picks. In the past 15 years, how many cup winning teams haven't had at least 1 top 3 pick on their roster? Currently, the ducks have none.

I'll wait for your answer.

St. Louis, all of 2 years ago, unless you want to claim Boumeister 16 years after his draft year was the magic straw that stirred the drink. They have a 4th and 5th overall as well, 11 and 10 years after their draft season.

Boston had Seguin as 2nd overall, but that was a trade, and Horton at 3rd, 7 years after he was drafted by Florida.

The other teams were Tampa, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Tampa. I don’t know of any generational talents in the next 2 drafts, so take Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Washington with a grain of salt. So, that’s 2 teams without top 3 guys, and 2 with.

Your turn to do homework - how many teams have gotten top 3 picks in the last 10 years and have NOT won, or even made the Finals, or even the Conference Finals?

edit - as far as Toronto - they had multiple young stars coming into the league together, who got PAID, at essentially the same time, while having to blow money to get UFA’s to go to a bad team. So, no cap to fill out the bottom 6 and D, and no success as a team.

 

[duckpuck]

St. Louis, all of 2 years ago, unless you want to claim Boumeister 16 years after his draft year was the magic straw that stirred the drink. They have a 4th and 5th overall as well, 11 and 10 years after their draft season.

Boston had Seguin as 2nd overall, but that was a trade, and Horton at 3rd, 7 years after he was drafted by Florida.

The other teams were Tampa, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Tampa. I don’t know of any generational talents in the next 2 drafts, so take Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Washington with a grain of salt. So, that’s 2 teams without top 3 guys, and 2 with.

Your turn to do homework - how many teams have gotten top 3 picks in the last 10 years and have NOT won, or even made the Finals, or even the Conference Finals?

edit - as far as Toronto - they had multiple young stars coming into the league together, who got PAID, at essentially the same time, while having to blow money to get UFA’s to go to a bad team. So, no cap to fill out the bottom 6 and D, and no success as a team.

Yes. Bouwmeester counts, as does Pietrangelo (4th) and Brayden Schenn (5th). Somehow you missed those two. Thank you for making my point. I would also add that St. Louis did a great job with mid first round picks and acquiring a stud like O'Reily.

Boston - it doesn't matter if the high pick is acquired by trade or directly drafted - top talent is top talent and a high pick can be traded for another high pick. They traded Kessel (5th pick) for the pick that became Seguin. They also had Horton (3rd) and Blake Wheeler (5th). Horton in his 7th year is in his prime. Again, they also had a ton of other good picks to supplement.

I can't believe you keep making the same straw man argument - the bolded statement above. NOBODY IS SAYING PICKING IN THE TOP 3 GUARANTEES A CUP OR EVEN A WINNING TEAM. Seriously, I keep telling you that and you keep repeating the same irrelevant point that isn't even responsive. Teams picking that high are generally bad and, of course, only one team can win a cup each year. In addition, some top 5 picks don't pan out. Elite talent is necessary, but not sufficient.

My point stands - few if any teams win cups without top 5 picks (i.e., elite talent) on the roster. You didn't identify any. The way to maximize the chance of getting elite talent is to have top 5 picks (really top 3). Statistically speaking, those probabilities are beyond dispute.

Can you get lucky and find a Pasternak, Marchant, Pointe, Kucherov, or O'Reily? Sure. but you can't rely on that - the statistics/numbers bear that out. Can you make a bad decision with your high pick, get unlucky or develop the talent poorly (Edmonton) - of course.

I don't even get what you're saying about Toronto. They've had a good run, will have several more years of a cup window, and mismanaged their cap a bit. But their roster is heads and tales above the ducks, which is really what we're talking about. Toronto was unlucky (flat cap) and probably shouldn't have signed Tavares. But I'd much rather follow the path that Toronto took then be stuck with the currently bad ducks team that will never improve.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Disagree. Ottawa and LA have the best prospect pools and Ottawa has elite talent in its system. Both team shave been tanking. It is possible Ottawa's awful owner could mess it up, but they should be very good in 2 years. And to be clear, Ottawa traded Karsson before the 2018-19 season and the tank started after that. Both teams are ahead of schedule.

And when they're not are you gonna admit that burning it down might not be the best way to go? Either way my point was Ottawa is doing what others here want, where they've traded a lot of guys and brought in other vets to build value and trade them again. So it's something to monitor but also not going well right now.

 

[OCSportsfan]

You cant win in this league without elite talent. You have a better chance to get that by drafting in the top 5, but as Edmonton shows, it is not a guarantee. So you either draft well(or get lucky with a late pick), or trade for a top talent. The Ducks are not drafting in the top 5 so you have to use the assets we have to trade for top talent, which he tried to do.

Unfortunately I dont see a quick fix with this, but if we can get one more top 5 pick and get a break with a trade potentially, we have plenty of years with Gibson left. If this years draft is void of "expected" top talent, then use that pick in a trade for a top player from a team with Cap issues.

 

[McDonald19]

And when they're not are you gonna admit that burning it down might not be the best way to go? Either way my point was Ottawa is doing what others here want, where they've traded a lot of guys and brought in other vets to build value and trade them again. So it's something to monitor but also not going well right now.

I didn’t expect Ottawa to win much in 20-21.

I think they are doing the right thing accumulating as many high end prospects as possible.

Brady Tkachuk is 21.
Tim Stutzle just turned 19 last month.
Jake Sanderson is 18 playing for North Dakota.

None of their picks outside the top five look to be elite yet, including Logan Brown 11th in 2016 who couldn’t earn an opening night roster spot in his third pro season.

 

[Duck Off]

Citing Ottawa as a template of any sort is stupid. That team has been ass for years. They lost Byram because they traded for Duchene. They got super lucky SJ fell off a cliff to give them their other top pick.

We should strive to be what Ottawa isn’t.

 

[AngelDuck]

Citing Ottawa as a template of any sort is stupid. That team has been ass for years. They lost Byram because they traded for Duchene. They got super lucky SJ fell off a cliff to give them their other top pick.

We should strive to be what Ottawa isn’t.

Not entirely true they have been ass for years. Actually they haven’t been ass too much longer than we have in reality. It wasn’t long ago they had Stone, Karlsson, Hoffman, Turris all in their primes and were in the conference finals - I believe that was the same year we went to the conference finals for the last time or maybe it was the year before.

before the last 4 seasons they were a consistent playoff team like we were. They chose a different path and more direct rebuild method than we did, time will tell which works faster. Both teams suck right now like everyone expected.

yes the Duchene trade was a disaster. No one in their right mind would defend something like that. Murray has never made a trade close to that bad

 

[DavidBL]

Not entirely true they have been ass for years. Actually they haven’t been ass too much longer than we have in reality. It wasn’t long ago they had Stone, Karlsson, Hoffman, Turris all in their primes and were in the conference finals - I believe that was the same year we went to the conference finals for the last time or maybe it was the year before.

before the last 4 seasons they were a consistent playoff team like we were. They chose a different path and more direct rebuild method than we did, time will tell which works faster. Both teams suck right now like everyone expected.

yes the Duchene trade was a disaster. No one in their right mind would defend something like that. Murray has never made a trade close to that bad

They were also forced to sell off their prime assets because their owner wouldn't pay and they had some locker room drama. Do we really think if those circumstances were different that they would have still traded guys like Karlsson or Stone?

 

[McDonald19]

We should strive to be what Ottawa isn’t.

They have a bad owner and have made a lot of mistakes, but they are doing the right thing now. Same with the Kings.

 

[Paul4587]

They have a bad owner and have made a lot of mistakes, but they are doing the right thing now. Same with the Kings.

Not sure they are doing the right thing. They’re getting embarrassed every night, their D and goalies confidence is shattered and they’re rushing their number 3 overall pick when he’s clearly not ready.

 

[McDonald19]

Not sure they are doing the right thing. They’re getting embarrassed every night, their D and goalies confidence is shattered and they’re rushing their number 3 overall pick when he’s clearly not ready.

I agree about not rushing 18-19 year olds to the NHL.

 

[ShadowDuck]

Not sure they are doing the right thing. They’re getting embarrassed every night, their D and goalies confidence is shattered and they’re rushing their number 3 overall pick when he’s clearly not ready.

Sounds just like the Ducks, they’re just not rushing Zegras