Zub 5.8 for 4 years. Do you do it?

[Xspyrit]

I get the gist of your post, but Zub is better then every defender there except maybe Tanev and Ekholm. I think the biggest variable is also we literally don't have any defensive RD near Zub's level that can step in to replace him. That kinda makes him more valuable and worth more, especially when we factor in higher salaries. I think $5.5 for 4+ years is market value based off that

Hmmm, I don't know. Don't forget to compare to them at the moment when they signed their deal.

TJ Brodie was/is better
Dmitry Orlov is pretty damn good and better offensively
Calvin De Haan was still highly rated in 2018
Jamie Oleksiak is arguable but is also underrated
Josh Manson was thought highly in 2017
Brian Dumoulin was pretty good in 2017
Adam Larsson is very good defensively
Alexandre Edler was pretty good when he signed that

Even if Zub is better than any of them, it's marginal and not worth SEVERAL millions more. Based on these, he should not get anything over 5.0 or we're clearly overpaying. I took the salary cap rising in consideration

 

[Sun God Nika]

hits high but I would do it.

Methot got 4.9M... 7 years ago. 7.1% of the salary cap.

5.8 for Zub is also 7.1% of the current salary cap.

Zub is equal to if not better than Methot.

 

[PlayOn]

hits high but I would do it.

Methot got 4.9M... 7 years ago. 7.1% of the salary cap.

5.8 for Zub is also 7.1% of the current salary cap.

Zub is equal to if not better than Methot.

I think there’s a level of experience that comes into play though. Zub has played less than 150 games at this point, no playoffs etc… I don’t think he gets what Methot did.

 

[SensontheRush]

Are you literally Zub's agent, @Agent Zub?

HE'S BEEN TELLING US THE WHOLE TIME!!!!

 

[GCK]

Zub is more valuable than Formenton though, and arguably more valuable than Norris as well from a team build perspective.

We can run

Stutzle
Pinto
Greig

Without Norris

And that's not that bad, but take out Zub and we have a much more massive hole imo.

Disagree on the Norris vs Zub. Zub is very important and I want him signed but replacing a 23 year Top 6 centre is much, much harder than replacing a 27 year old top 4 RD. It’s pointless either way because Norris, Stu and Zub are all priorities, save elsewhere if needed

 

[Big Muddy]

Disagree on the Norris vs Zub. Zub is very important and I want him signed but replacing a 23 year Top 6 centre is much, much harder than replacing a 27 year old top 4 RD. It’s pointless either way because Norris, Stu and Zub are all priorities, save elsewhere if needed

Both are very hard to replace. I wouldn't want to be in a situation where the team needs to find either a RD or center. The Leafs tried for years to land that necessary RD. I think its one of the main reasons they've been unsuccessful (playoffs). JMHO.

 

[GCK]

Both are very hard to replace. I wouldn't want to be in a situation where the team needs to find either a RD or center. The Leafs tried for years to land that necessary RD. I think its one of the main reasons they've been unsuccessful (playoffs). JMHO.

Let’s put it this way would anyone trade Norris straight up for Zub if Zub played for another team. Anyone who says yes is lying.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Imagine saying no to this and letting a legit top 4 RD walk for nothing

If we just don't pay guys to be tomatoes that are actually cow shit covered potatoes, we can easily use them as assets. Good problem to have.

 

[Big Muddy]

Let’s put it this way would anyone trade Norris straight up for Zub if Zub played for another team. Anyone who says yes is lying.

No, let's put it (exactly) the way I described it in my post. Both are hard slots to fill. You're talking about something different now, that was also not part of my post.

 

[bert]

18 no votes. You guys must like sucking.

Hmmm, I don't know. Don't forget to compare to them at the moment when they signed their deal.

TJ Brodie was/is better
Dmitry Orlov is pretty damn good and better offensively
Calvin De Haan was still highly rated in 2018
Jamie Oleksiak is arguable but is also underrated
Josh Manson was thought highly in 2017
Brian Dumoulin was pretty good in 2017
Adam Larsson is very good defensively
Alexandre Edler was pretty good when he signed that

Even if Zub is better than any of them, it's marginal and not worth SEVERAL millions more. Based on these, he should not get anything over 5.0 or we're clearly overpaying. I took the salary cap rising in consideration

TJ Brodie is not better than Zub. None of the players you named are as solid at both ends of the ice and are capable of carrying a D pair in a top 4 role.

I get that people around here dont like players that play a quiet effective game but thats all you want from your D man. Look at Calgarys top 4, none do anything spectacular but they dont make mistakes, dont get beat are hard in front of the net and get the puck out controlled.

If I am forced to, yes.

But that's about a million too high.

In no world is that a million too high for an all situations D man that plays 22 minutes a game and carries a top 4 d pair. I get you dont like physical solid two way play but believe it or not its important.

 

[bert]

I'm going to say no but that is no THIS off season. We don't need to sign Zub this off season. He is signed next year.

Before signing Zub, I'd want to know
1. Where's Sanderson at
2. How does JBD look in a defensive D role
3. What does Thomson look like
4. What does Brannstrom look like with another year under his belt.

If I don't like the answers to those questions, then I'd be trying to sign Zub before the deadline

If I do like the answers to those questions, then I'm assessing if I am a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline. If I am a buyer, then I keep Zub for a playoff run and trade his rights. We'd ultimately lose Zub for little, but the asset mgmt really lies in the answers to those four questions. If I'm a seller, I move Zub at the TDL.

How small of a D core do you wanna run with exactly? There is absolutely no physicality outside of Zub.

Big teams with heavy D cores are still the only ones that win. Tampa doesnt have a single D man under 6'3 outside of Mcdonough who is 6'1 215 and very hard to play against.

If anything on top of retaining Zub they need another physical D man. I dont see many scenarios where they run with both Brannstrom and JBD in the line up.

 

[GCK]

No, let's put it (exactly) the way I described it in my post. Both are hard slots to fill. You're talking about something different now, that was also not part of my post.

I meant to respond to @Agent Zub post above not yours.

 

[JD1]

How small of a D core do you wanna run with exactly? There is absolutely no physicality outside of Zub.

Big teams with heavy D cores are still the only ones that win. Tampa doesnt have a single D man under 6'3 outside of Mcdonough who is 6'1 215 and very hard to play against.

If anything on top of retaining Zub they need another physical D man. I dont see many scenarios where they run with both Brannstrom and JBD in the line up.

I don't profess to have all the answers however we have a few issues in front of us. We don't have an owner. That means we don't have a view into multi year salary expenditures.

We've got 3 first round D men that are just about fully baked with one of them expected to be an all world level player. I think the team has more insight into where they think Thomson and JBD can slot in two years than we do.

We've got forwards that we are absolutely keeping and they're going to get paid. Stuetzle and Norris. Without doubt in my mind those two are more important than Zub to get signed. Then you have Sanderson.

Dorion has already talked about the challenges with getting everyone signed long term. It's not possible. There's going to need to be a balance between long term deals, bridge contracts and ELCs.

This
Chabot Thomson
Sanderson jbd

By drop of the puck in 2023 24 isn't far fetched. Flip the pairs however you like.

I absolutely like Zub. I'm just not sure how it lines up unless you get Zub on a sweetheart deal. 5.8 AAV isn't a sweetheart deal

 

[Micklebot]

I'm of the opinion that Zub needs to be signed to a contract that is tradable. Not because I want to trade him but because if our prospects all pan out we will need to trade him. 5.8 to me is a tough contract to trade for a defensive dman.

I think 5 mil is probably as high as I go if there's term, but next season is going to really clarify things. If Thomson and JBD both look ready and we draft one of the RHD at the top of the draft, I think we move on from Zub rather than sign him. If JBD and Thomson struggle, and we draft a forward, I think Zub might get overpaid to keep him around. If something in the middle of those two scenarios happens, we'll have to make a leap of faith and hope for the best.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

$5 mil a year is a fair price. If you twist my arm tot he breaking point, I could go as high as 5.5. But not a penny above that. So no to 5.8.

Saying yes to 5.8 (or higher) also likely means losing one of our good kids. So is 5.8 for Zub, and moving a kid like Formenton worth it? Remember, we will not be a cap team...we are an internal cap team. We need to set our figures to that, and not to what the Rangers and Leafs of the league pay.

 

[bert]

I don't profess to have all the answers however we have a few issues in front of us. We don't have an owner. That means we don't have a view into multi year salary expenditures.

We've got 3 first round D men that are just about fully baked with one of them expected to be an all world level player. I think the team has more insight into where they think Thomson and JBD can slot in two years than we do.

We've got forwards that we are absolutely keeping and they're going to get paid. Stuetzle and Norris. Without doubt in my mind those two are more important than Zub to get signed. Then you have Sanderson.

Dorion has already talked about the challenges with getting everyone signed long term. It's not possible. There's going to need to be a balance between long term deals, bridge contracts and ELCs.

This
Chabot Thomson
Sanderson jbd

By drop of the puck in 2023 24 isn't far fetched. Flip the pairs however you like.

I absolutely like Zub. I'm just not sure how it lines up unless you get Zub on a sweetheart deal. 5.8 AAV isn't a sweetheart deal

You simply cant contend with a top 4 d that soft and small. 5.8 for 22 minutes a game of positive hockey with a salary cap of 82+ million is good value per minute. There are so many ways to make his money work. Anything under 6 million and its good value. The sens have 16 million tied up in non NHL players currently cutting Zub out or letting him walk isn't the way to go about building a team that can win. They simply have to find another way.

 

[bert]

I'm of the opinion that Zub needs to be signed to a contract that is tradable. Not because I want to trade him but because if our prospects all pan out we will need to trade him. 5.8 to me is a tough contract to trade for a defensive dman.

I think 5 mil is probably as high as I go if there's term, but next season is going to really clarify things. If Thomson and JBD both look ready and we draft one of the RHD at the top of the draft, I think we move on from Zub rather than sign him. If JBD and Thomson struggle, and we draft a forward, I think Zub might get overpaid to keep him around. If something in the middle of those two scenarios happens, we'll have to make a leap of faith and hope for the best.

I am a little shocked that you don't see value in physicality and defensive acumen. It's not like he isn't capable offensively either. Have you taken a good look at what a contending teams d core looks like? You need these types of players.

 

[Bevans]

To keep the contract under 5 years will be expensive. I'm fine with this total and prefer it to buying less productive years to keep the cap down.

 

[Bevans]

To put this in context, had the Senators offered this proposal + Zub's contract together this past summer, it would have been 6 years at 4.7 mil.

How many guys who were FURIOUS Ottawa signed him to a short deal would have jumped on that immediately?

 

[Micklebot]

I am a little shocked that you don't see value in physicality and defensive acumen. It's not like he isn't capable offensively either. Have you taken a good look at what a contending teams d core looks like? You need these types of players.

Zub isn't particularly physical tbh. I mean, he's not soft by any means, but he's not a punishing guy either. I like him, don't get me wrong, and ideally I'd keep him around, but the contract needs to be something we can move if our younger pieces pan out, that's all.

There are only 46 D with a cap hit > 5.5, is he really a top 46 paid dman in this league?

Maybe if the team were willing to retain on contracts, I'd be more willing to overpay a bit knowing we could still move on from him if it becomes needed, but right now there are too many unanswered questions for me to commit.

 

[bert]

Zub isn't particularly physical tbh. I mean, he's not soft by any means, but he's not a punishing guy either. I like him, don't get me wrong, and ideally I'd keep him around, but the contract needs to be something we can move if our younger pieces pan out, that's all.

There are only 46 D with a cap hit > 5.5, is he really a top 46 paid dman in this league?

Maybe if the team were willing to retain on contracts, I'd be more willing to overpay a bit knowing we could still move on from him if it becomes needed, but right now there are too many unanswered questions for me to commit.

He takes and gives more contact consistently than any player on the team. He leans on guys hard in the D zone. He is unreal at seperating the man from the puck and winning 1 on 1 battles. That's physicality, making big hits is only one aspect and can take players out of position. He rarely takes risks like that. Colour me surprised twice you haven't identified this with Zub.

Cherry picking the stat about him being potentially a top 46 paid d man right before his contract is about to be extended is a little disingenuous. If he is signed to 5.5 for let's say 6 years. Do you think in 3 years as the cap goes up he is even a top 100 paid d man?... It's a long term contract. Did you feel Methot was overpaid at 4.9? Zub at 5.5 is a smaller percentage if the cap then Methot at that number.

There is simply too much of an emphasis put on points for a position that has way more important elements to it especially to winning playoff games.

 

[Micklebot]

He takes and gives more contact consistently than any player on the team. He leans on guys hard in the D zone. He is unreal at seperating the man from the puck and winning 1 on 1 battles. That's physicality, making big hits is only one aspect and can take players out of position. He rarely takes risks like that. Colour me surprised twice you haven't identified this with Zub.

He's a good defensive player and wins more than his share of battles, but frankly look at what other Dmen are paid, you're asking to put him in the top 20% of league dmen in cap hits, I'm just not comfortable with that when we have some guys we've been grooming to fill the same top 4 roles and there's a real risk he gets pushed to the 3rd pair, or worse if we draft one of the top D this year.

We need to look at signing him outside of a vacuum, we've got Norris and Stutzle that will need new deals as will Pinto, Sanderson will be off his ELC in the 2nd year of Zub's next deal, JBD and Thomson will be 23.

We need the flexibility to move on from him if it comes to it, he's definitely a good player right now that I'd rather have around than not, but I'm projecting out and want to keep things flexible, not sure you can do that with him at 5.8

 

[GCK]

I'm of the opinion that Zub needs to be signed to a contract that is tradable. Not because I want to trade him but because if our prospects all pan out we will need to trade him. 5.8 to me is a tough contract to trade for a defensive dman.

I think 5 mil is probably as high as I go if there's term, but next season is going to really clarify things. If Thomson and JBD both look ready and we draft one of the RHD at the top of the draft, I think we move on from Zub rather than sign him. If JBD and Thomson struggle, and we draft a forward, I think Zub might get overpaid to keep him around. If something in the middle of those two scenarios happens, we'll have to make a leap of faith and hope for the best.

I think Zub is showing signs of being more a 2 way player than strictly a defensive D. If we pair him with Sanderson as opposed to Chabot I can see 10 + 25-30 from him. The instincts are there.

 

[Micklebot]

I think Zub is showing signs of being more a 2 way player than strictly a defensive D. If we pair him with Sanderson as opposed to Chabot I can see 10 + 25-30 from him. The instincts are there.

That's fair, and if he does do that next year the calculus changes, but as of right now, I don't think we can pay a guy who will be 27 next season on potential.

Anyways, we can't re-sign him until next season, I don't see us rushing to do so, so from my perspective, the answer right now is not at that price, wait and see how things play out with JBD, Thomson and the draft, what we do with Brannstrom ect.

 

[GCK]

That's fair, and if he does do that next year the calculus changes, but as of right now, I don't think we can pay a guy who will be 27 next season on potential.

Anyways, we can't re-sign him until next season, I don't see us rushing to do so, so from my perspective, the answer right now is not at that price, wait and see how things play out with JBD, Thomson and the draft, what we do with Brannstrom ect.

I don’t love the idea of letting him go into his walk year without a contract I consider him a core piece.