Zibanejad versus Couturier

[Stizzle]

If you do not score you cannot win. It makes no difference if the goals are at even strength or power play.

Both Couturier and Pageau had the same plus minus playing the same role despite Pageau playing in ~30 fewer games.

Ok, let's see the numbers that prove they played the same role.

 

[Romang67]

this whole discussion started going off the rails when advanced stats started coming out of the woodwork and being quoted. They were being quoted in a way that I thought was more favourable to one player and less favourable to another. You can do that with stats....hunt for something that proves your point.

At one point Appleyad in discussing faceoffs, you quoted stats showing they are slightly in Couturier's favour. I don`t know what timeline you used, I don`t recall, but the simply truth is that the career stats are .477 to .473 in Zibanejad`s favour according to Yahoo.

It seems to me that switching back and forth between career stats or the last two years is a way of quoting stats that end up more favourable to one player. It seems to me that quoting stats based on 5 on 5 is more favourable to one player, the logic being that the other player doesn`t play a lot of PP. And then the defensive abilities of one player are talked up yet the offensive abilities of the other dismissed, not allowed in the debate.

The stats I have quoted in this thread cover the last 3 years. Why? Because 4 years ago Zibanejad only played 9 games in the league (as rookies often do) and I don't think it is as statistically relevant to quote stats from a year that Zibanejad was not in the league because league goal scoring stats fluctuate from year to year. 3 years. They've both been full time players. That's what I have quoted stats on.

Their have been other stats quoted that are absolute. Stats quoted based on per 60 minute of ice. Again, it seems to vary depending on whether the stat favours Couturier.

So, here it is, all in over the last 3 years. Points per 60 minutes of ice.

Zibanejad 2.11, 2.02, 2.12
Couturier 1.26, 1.51, 1.50

Those numbers are hugely in favour on Zibanejad. You can argue....yeah but if Couturier got more PP icetime....you know what - maybe his coaches thought his play didn't warrant more ice time. In pro sports.....we don't have equal ice time and apart from Eric Lindros's daddy, no one takes on the coach's decision.

The absolute numbers - just points - are a lot closer than the P/60 numbers. One thing that Couturier supporters in this thread have done is they have talked about the hypothetical. What if Couturier got more O zone starts. what if Couturier got more PP time. But you've held on to the absolute numbers and said it is only a 9 point difference or whatever it is. You know what has not come from me in this thread - what if Zibanejad got an equal amount of 5 on 5 ice time? His numbers would go up and then the absolute difference would be a fair bit larger. But I haven't done that. Why? Because I can watch the game and assess for myself that maybe his coaches thought his play didn't warrant more ice time.

But that's just me being objective.

Numbers are numbers. Theories are theories. The theory on Jordan Staal is that he would thrive on more ice time and being in more scoring situations. He didn't. Bad mistake from the GM's viewpoint. Very costly.

Here's something else to consider for all the theorists. Couturier just signed a large contract. Who knows....maybe he has a fool for an agent. Maybe he himself is a fool. But I will say this....if both the player and the team thought in today's 70M cap world that Sean Couturier would blossom in to a high offence producing 2C centre, the AAV of that contract would be a lot higher. So you can enjoy your theories, but it seems kind of like neither the player nor the team subscribe to them.

Ugh. No. Just no. You don't combine PPP/60 with 5v5 P/60.

If you want to bring the PP up as a positive for Mika, do so. But don't pretend as if it's a fair comparison to bring up P/60 on the PP. Then, if you were objective, you would take into account the fact that Zibanejad was a complete non factor on the PK, so the two cancel each other out at best.

Mika has a slightly higher P/60 on 5v5. Even if he got more ice time, and that ice time wasn't pushing him away from the O zone (he has some very favorable starts right now), the extra 100 minutes he would play in your scenario to get up to Couturier's minutes would give him an extra ~2-3 points.

 

[flyersfan018]

If you do not score you cannot win. It makes no difference if the goals are at even strength or power play.

Both Couturier and Pageau had the same plus minus playing the same role despite Pageau playing in ~30 fewer games.

You're using +/- as part of your argument? Ok...

And "same role"? I'd love to see proof or else you're talking out your ass.

 

[Tripod]

If you do not score you cannot win. It makes no difference if the goals are at even strength or power play.

Both Couturier and Pageau had the same plus minus playing the same role despite Pageau playing in ~30 fewer games.

Ryan White had the same +\- playing the same role as Pageau in 16 less games.

Lol...and if you WERE right in who his competition was against, that means that Zibby's competition would be easier than Pageaus or Turris faced.

So which one is it Sens fans? Did Pageau face this tough competition meaning Zibby faced the easiest of the 3 or is MightyIgor full of it?

 

[PALE PWNR]

If you do not score you cannot win. It makes no difference if the goals are at even strength or power play.

Both Couturier and Pageau had the same plus minus playing the same role despite Pageau playing in ~30 fewer games.

Couturier scores more goals then the people he directly plays against. This is how you win at hockey. No he doesn't score a lot. But the people he directly plays against on the ice score less, and the people he directly plays against on the ice the most are the top scorers in the game.

 

[1865]

John Scott is better than Carey Price. Look at how many points they score

 

[aufheben]

Doesn't Zib average like over a minute more PP time per game?

 

[flyersfan018]

Doesn't Zib average like over a minute more PP time per game?

Yep.

Special teams (PP/PK) based on TOI/G:

Couturier spends 40% on the PP and 60% on the PK
Zibanejad spends 90% on PP and 10% on PK

 

[Romang67]

Doesn't Zib average like over a minute more PP time per game?

Yes. So, again, let's not mix PPP/60 with 5v5 P/60.

 

[Pronto]

are you saying the difference between Zib and Couts is the same between Giroux and Turris?

im like half joking here

I'm not saying anything. Just having a little fun with numbers.

 

[JD1]

Yes. So, again, let's not mix PPP/60 with 5v5 P/60.

I agree.

We should wait until Couturier earns PP time before we compare their PP productivity. Hopefully we don't have to wait too long.

 

[Pronto]

You are right. Giroux's worst year in 5 years was only 9 points more Turris's career year.

I know I know, I was just having a little fun with numbers. This thread has been pretty focus on stats and basically, you can pick whatever stats to fit your agenda.

Most of us Sens fans think Zbad has more offensive upside than Couts and if Flyers fans do not agree and counter saying only 9 points separated them last season, that's fair but there's more to it than just points production.

That's why I brought up the 9 points separation between Giroux and Turris knowing full well that both are not on the same level. Without context, you can't draw any conclusions from two different sets of players both having a 9 pts gap. Zbad and Couts are probably closer in what they bring to there respective team that what Giroux and Turris are.

I remember, a few years ago when Ryan was on the market and some rumors brought him to Philly because of his background and finally ended up in Ottawa, I had suggested to a few Sens fans, friends of mine, a Spezza-Ryan for Giroux-Simmonds trade and all thought I was crazy and Sens would be heavy losers in that trade. Not sure they still have the same opinion today.

 

[Garbage Goal]

I agree.

We should wait until Couturier earns PP time before we compare their PP productivity. Hopefully we don't have to wait too long.

Yes, it's Zib's offensive prowess that earned him a whole nine points more than Couturier despite far weaker competition, almost zero PK time, and prime PP opportunity.

I mean, seriously, that's what your argument is at this point. It's ridiculous on the face of it. The fact that Couturier has an elite center and elite winger both ahead of him on the depth chart, a far worse coach, and a far worse 2nd PP unit are not his fault. The fact that he is great enough defensively to spend sixty percent of his special teams play on the PK isn't a sleight against him either so pretending as if it is is transparent towards your agenda.

 

[Romang67]

I agree.

We should wait until Couturier earns PP time before we compare their PP productivity. Hopefully we don't have to wait too long.

Do you really want to bring in special teams in the comparison between players? I'm just gonna let you know right now that that will NOT end up working out in your favor the moment people start looking at the PK as well.

 

[Juicy Pop]

I know I know, I was just having a little fun with numbers. This thread has been pretty focus on stats and basically, you can pick whatever stats to fit your agenda.

Most of us Sens fans think Zbad has more offensive upside than Couts and if Flyers fans do not agree and counter saying only 9 points separated them last season, that's fair but there's more to it than just points production.

That's why I brought up the 9 points separation between Giroux and Turris knowing full well that both are not on the same level. Without context, you can't draw any conclusions from two different sets of players both having a 9 pts gap. Zbad and Couts are probably closer in what they bring to there respective team that what Giroux and Turris are.

I remember, a few years ago when Ryan was on the market and some rumors brought him to Philly because of his background and finally ended up in Ottawa, I had suggested to a few Sens fans, friends of mine, a Spezza-Ryan for Giroux-Simmonds trade and all thought I was crazy and Sens would be heavy losers in that trade. Not sure they still have the same opinion today.

If you have absolutely no clue what you're doing, possibly. See: JD1's post and the relevant criticisms

I'd advise you to be wary about arguing yourself into a corner in this case, lest you require further evidence for a claim and find yourself handcuffed by your own statements.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Couturier scores more goals then the people he directly plays against. This is how you win at hockey. No he doesn't score a lot. But the people he directly plays against on the ice score less, and the people he directly plays against on the ice the most are the top scorers in the game.

The flyers are a minus -19 in goal differential. With Giroux's line and Coutourier's line taking so many mins and somehow outscoring the league's best players, I find it hard to believe its just the 4th liners getting destroyed by the league's worst players.

 

[Romang67]

The flyers are a minus -19 in goal differential. With Giroux's line and Coutourier's line taking so many mins and somehow outscoring the league's best players, I find it hard to believe its just the 4th liners getting destroyed by the league's worst players.

Keep in mind that that was a bottom 6 consisting of such star players as Rinaldo, Lecavalier, Vandevelde and Umberger.

But the biggest problem for the Flyers was their special teams. They were -3 on 5v5 last season.

 

[Juicy Pop]

The flyers are a minus -19 in goal differential. With Giroux's line and Coutourier's line taking so many mins and somehow outscoring the league's best players, I find it hard to believe its just the 4th liners getting destroyed by the league's worst players.

Take a look at Appleyard's posts then, if you find it hard to believe.

 

[flyersfan018]

The flyers are a minus -19 in goal differential. With Giroux's line and Coutourier's line taking so many mins and somehow outscoring the league's best players, I find it hard to believe its just the 4th liners getting destroyed by the league's worst players.

You sure? Raffl, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier, Read, and B.Schenn all have a GF% of 50 or higher. The Flyers PK and defense was just atrocious. Their top 2 lines are actually the reason they didn't have a ton more goals scored against.

 

[PALE PWNR]

Keep in mind that that was a bottom 6 consisting of such star players as Rinaldo, Lecavalier, Vandevelde and Umberger.

But the biggest problem for the Flyers was their special teams. They were -3 on 5v5 last season.

You sure? Raffl, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier, Read, and B.Schenn all have a GF% of 50 or higher. The Flyers PK and defense was just atrocious. Their top 2 lines are actually the reason they didn't have a ton more goals scored against.

Thanks guys. That was easy

 

[Tripod]

The flyers are a minus -19 in goal differential. With Giroux's line and Coutourier's line taking so many mins and somehow outscoring the league's best players, I find it hard to believe its just the 4th liners getting destroyed by the league's worst players.

We had the 5th best PK in 2013. Had the 7th best in 2014.

Then Berube decides to change how it PK plays..from a passive style to an aggressive one. What coach makes that change when you have lead foot guys like LSchenn and Grossmann manning the D? Berube does.

The result was a 27th finish for PK.

We have no issue telling people where our strengths AND weaknesses are. They were quite obvious if you watched our team.

 

[Pronto]

If you have absolutely no clue what you're doing, possibly. See: JD1's post and the relevant criticisms

I'd advise you to be wary about arguing yourself into a corner in this case, lest you require further evidence for a claim and find yourself handcuffed by your own statements.

I know exactly what I'm saying but I might not have expressed myself clearly (english being my 2nd language). IMHO, Couts and Zbad bring similar contribution to their teams at this point in their careers, and it's pretty clear to me they have been used differently. On the other hand, Giroux is on another level wrt Turris. I just brought up the point that both sets of players have a 9 pts gap in an attempt to show that stats alone doesn't tell the entire story. Nothing more, nothing less.

Now, I still have a very biased opinion that Zbad has more offensive upside than Couts based on me having watched most of Zbad's games in the NHL so far and probably less than 20 Couts' games. Just pure speculation on my part, I won't argue with anyone telling me differently.

 

[Proust*]

Sean Couturier is like a middle-class man's Fredrik Gauthier.

 

[Griffin6612]

I feel like Couts is the Jordan Staal of the Penguins.

 

[Mashed Potatoes]

Sean Couturier is like a middle-class man's Fredrik Gauthier.

So you're implying Gauthier is better than Couturier?