Speculation: Zibanejad contract

[T_Cage]

4yr @ 9.5

If I had to go longer, I wouldn’t go over 6yrs max and only if it’s get the AAv down a little (6/8m or 6/8.5m?)

 

[Breakers]

Tavares is a smart comparable for his agent.

 

[Ice Mammoth]

I hope Zibanejad will have a great season.
I hope his AAV will be around $ 10.0M over 7-8 years.
I hope this stops the Rangers from signing a new deal.

Some other team will hit the jackpot.
The future bad contract is from the moment of signing.

For the Rangers, the conclusion of a new contract with a player is possible:
With an unlikely discount - 20% -25% (AAV + contract term + no NMС).

I remember the deadline. This is a possible option.

 

[Sasso09]

Comparables are McDavid, Matthews, Tavarez, Seguin, etc. not Couturier

Lmao, Zibanejad isn't as good as Couturier

 

[Sasso09]

My guess is 8.5, I doubt Zibanejad signs as friendly a deal as Coots but based off the Coots signing if Zibanejad took a similar discount it would be 7M. Again, he doesn't seem like the guy, Couturier is better at everything, including being a teamate and taking a discount

 

[Barnaby]

After reading some Bern trade value posts……8 years, $15M per.

Sounds light...

 

[Barnaby]

Yeah he is now but he’s worse compared to when Tavares was signed 3 years ago

.. but Tavares wanted to stay home - if he went to the highest bidder? ... unknown how Zibanejad feels.

 

[Barnaby]

If Zibanejad signs tomorrow? 8.5 AAV … if he gets to UFA then he gets 10 million AAV from someone assuming he has a healthy year.

 

[Barnaby]

I think some people underrate Zibanejad in general.

Others underrate the value of 'extension' versus open market. Big difference if Zibby extends tomorrow or comes off a healthy and productive year then hits UFA.

 

[Aurinko]

If Zibanejad signs tomorrow? 8.5 AAV … if he gets to UFA then he gets 10 million AAV from someone assuming he has a healthy year.

Zib has very high value in open market, that's all I'm sure off. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 10M++.

 

[BB06]

Zibanejad is better than Tavares by a significant margin right now

"significant" is that why Zibanejad has only had a better PPG once in his career and they scored the same amount of points this year?

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

"significant" is that why Zibanejad has only had a better PPG once in his career and they scored the same amount of points this year?

Why is tavares even a comparable? He’s on an awful boat anchor of a deal.

 

[TBF1972]

NHL fans discussing Zibs talent: "Zib is not as good as any of the games top centers"
NHL fans discussing Zibs next deal: "Zib next contract is going to be like the games top centers"

Never change, HFB.

a rangers fan in the previous off-season: 'zib is top 5 forward in the game.'
shall i also say never change, rangers fans?

taking couturier as a comparable isn't a bad start. but a lot of people thought it was on the low side regarding aav with risks in terms of term. zib boosts the better scoring peak. so considering a slightly higher aav on a similar long term contract (7y/8y) isn't unreasonable. guessing that zib would aim for a long term contract is probably a given, as it might be the last rich contract he can sign. shorting the term would probably cost the team offering the contract a higher aav.

there is only one vote for 12m up to your response. there is someone claiming, that zib wanted eichel money/contract based on reports. players and agents starting the negotiation on the high side isn't surprising at all. everybody else has him below 10m, mostly in the range of 8 to 9 million. i really wonder, why you think the takes in this thread were off-base.

 

[TBF1972]

Why is tavares even a comparable? He’s on an awful boat anchor of a deal.

the comparable is tavares, when he signed the contract with the leafs. current tavares is just the illustration of the risks, which comes with rich long term contracts with trade protections.

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

the comparable is tavares, when he signed the contract with the leafs. current tavares is just the illustration of the risks, which comes with rich long term contracts with trade protections.

The risks were obvious at time of contract. It was always an unnecessary and poor deal.

 

[bernmeister]

I said:

The $ is not an issue IF IF IF it is on the following terms, which club must hold firm to, otherwise deal now for highest return....

4 years no more
ok as a new deal to replace existing 5+ last yr [as opposed to add on]
no nmc
limited ntc 22 clubs he can submit no trade at beginning of yr

we pay him 10.5 in return
say honestly, we intend to keep you
but
if have to move you retained for Matthews
or if there is another reason we have to move you
including recover cap,
then understand
we have to go there

otherwise, we do prefer to keep you,
but
only on these terms

$$ for club flexibility

only downside to that deal is it might delay long term [thus cost saving] contract for Fox

if he is adamant and wants more than 4 yrs, even less $, the answer is no.

you decided to go here:

8 years 10.5 just to see Berns response oh yeah full nmc too

so while I'm trying to play nice here, you are pushing me toward, what, you can't read?

No to anything w/term taking him past 33. Period.

Full pop at 10.5 per is enough to command concessions.
If he doesn't want that compromise, trade his ass.

 

[Deas]

I dont think it does stand. The linemates argument was a big factor IMO.

Last year:
Zibanejad: 0.893 PPG
Couturier: 0.911 PPG

Last 3 years:
Zibanejad: 1.020 PPG
Couturier: 0.907 PPG

Zibanejad had 1 insane year with 40 goals that stands out significantly. But even with that factored in, the offensive numbers are still relatively close. Couts gets more points even strength than Zibanejad does (Zib has 24 more ppp in last 3 years), and the gap defensively is much larger as Couturier is literally a Selke winner. I also don't agree that Zibanejad is above average defensively for a top center. He's just normal/average which is not bad. Couturier is just a monster defensively.

Ive made my points. Some are opinions (like how close they are defensively for example). Feel free to reply and ill read it, but i'll agree to disagree at this point if you're not convinced.

Ziba has elevated his level the past 2 years and your comparison disregards his Covid+recovering from Covid period. His seasons 19/20 plus 2nd half of 20/21 are at elite level. Of course one could argue I'm then being selective, but I really think he's elevated his game to that level. His past 1.5 healthy seasons are at that level, not two 15 game hot streaks or such.

 

[TGWL]

Yeah he is now but he’s worse compared to when Tavares was signed 3 years ago

So are most of the top centers...

 

[Rafafouille]

He probably signs at something like 8x9.5m with the rangers. If somehow he goes to free agency I'm willing to go up to 7x11m to get him to MTL. He's elite. Not in the same stratosphere as couturier offensively(whoever posted those charts again proved just how f***ing useless advanced stats are).

 

[Accelleratii]

Zibanejad is a good player, but just because Couturier's production isn't exactly "top tier", he was projected to be a finalist for the Selke before he even suited up for his first NHL game.

I like both players but I think you're an ignoramus if you think Zibanejad is Couturier's equal. He simply is not. In fantasy, Zibanejad might be the better player, but in reality, not the case.

Not to mention, look at the talent the Rangers have in their top 6. Flyers ain't close to that, further supporting my claim.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

i just hope they don't give him a new contract before the season. If he plays at his 2020 level then he will get a huge payday and will deserve it.

 

[TGWL]

Zibanejad is a good player, but just because Couturier's production isn't exactly "top tier", he was projected to be a finalist for the Selke before he even suited up for his first NHL game.

I like both players but I think you're an ignoramus if you think Zibanejad is Couturier's equal. He simply is not. In fantasy, Zibanejad might be the better player, but in reality, not the case.

Not to mention, look at the talent the Rangers have in their top 6. Flyers ain't close to that, further supporting my claim.

Not to compare players, but regarding the top 6 - they had Panarin and Buchnevich (The same player we were told isn't a 1st line winger). Unless you want to add Kreider to the list when everybody says how overrated his he. Kakko and Laf did nothing. So where was this strong top 6 that helped Zibanejad produce? We got more help producing from DeAngelo and Fox the last 2 years than most of our top 6.

Production matters and sometimes it's not just the total number. They see a player that hit 40 goals. They see a player that somehow hit 50 points after doing nothing the first 25 games or so. They see a player who was just on pace for over 100 points the season prior. Gm's are going to pay. Whether Zibanejad is the better overall player or not, GM's are going to dish out more money. We would love to see Zibanejad get a closer $ amount to comparable overall players and not production players, but it just doesn't happen.

 

[Accelleratii]

They had Panarin and Buchnevich (The same player we were told isn't a 1st line winger). Unless you want to add Kreider to the list when everybody says how overrated his he. Kakko and Laf did nothing. So where was this strong top 6 that helped Zibanejad produce? We got more help producing from DeAngelo and Fox the last 2 years than most of our top 6.

Panarin is a dynamic superstar. Fox can clearly drive plays and score, as DeAngelo did the year before. Kaako and Laf are 2nd and 1st overall, respectively, and for good reason, even though they're not lighting the NHL on fire. Buchnevich would be on the Flyers 1st or 2nd lines. Is it not fair to say their top 6 was better than the Flyers the last two seasons, also with two back-to-back offensive breakouts on the blueline?

 

[Kairi Zaide]

He probably signs at something like 8x9.5m with the rangers. If somehow he goes to free agency I'm willing to go up to 7x11m to get him to MTL. He's elite. Not in the same stratosphere as couturier offensively(whoever posted those charts again proved just how f***ing useless advanced stats are).

And saying he's "not in the same stratosphere as Couturier offensively" shows how clueless you are. His 19-20 season - the only one he vastly outperformed Couts in terms of points/goals production - was one where he shot a COMPLETELY SUSTAINABLE 19%, which is 6% above (i.e. nearly a 50% increase) his career average. No player post lockout - even the top of the top goalscorers - has sustained such a shooting%, and I'm sure you have to go back to the high goalscoring eras to find one. Basing a player's evaluation based on one outlier (as outstanding as it might have been) season is inherently dumb. They are, overall, practically neck and shoulder (including Zibs' 19-20 season!) over the past few seasons, with Zibs having a slight edge in points rate (a whooping 0.1 more per 60) and the edge in goalscoring (0.3 more per 60) and Couts having a slight edge in playmaking (0.14 more assists per 60) and a clear, substantial edge in defensive impact.

That said - yes, GMs are known to use points as their primary tools when it comes to contracts, and they're known to have little clue about sustainability. Recent points production is the biggest predictor of future contract cap hits. So, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he got 9+M and I also wouldn't be surprised if everyone in 3 years talks about how f***ing horrible the contract is.

 

[ICanMotteBelieveIt]

6-8 years. $9-9.5M AAV probably.