Player Discussion Zemgus Girgensons

[Dingo44]

I'm not anymore.

Its funny how different development paths have colored the perceptions of Girgs vs Vesey. At age 18 Vesey had just been skipped over in his first year of draft eligibility (2011) and was playing in the EJHL after graduating from HS. At age 18 Girgs had already been drafted 14th overall and was playing in the AHL. At age 19 Vesey is drafted as an overager in the 3rd round and starts at Harvard while Girgs is starting in the NHL. They were drafted the same year (2012).


The point being is Girgs stock was much higher than Vesey's when they were drafted in 2012. But because Girgs has been developing for the last 3 years in the NHL we've gotten to see his warts as he struggles through the highs and lows trying to develop at the highest level. Its led to many to lose faith in him as a player and forget the promise he has as a player. Whereas Vesey has had the benefit of playing at a lower level (college vs NHL). He basically slow cooked himself over the last 4 years at Harvard. It allowed him to still be that guy with tons of optimism and promise tied to him and little to no warts. Which is typically the case with prospects that have success at lower levels. The perceptions of each is colored in part by the respective paths they've taken since getting drafted.

This is a great post.

 

[Heraldic]

But to say something seriously to this Girgs v. Vesey thing.

Considering that Vesey doesn't really have any distinctively great element on his game (but not bad either), it's pretty difficult to say how his game will translate into NHL. His offensive game might not translate that well in the NHL, or it could translate.

Anyway, it most likely will take him some time (probably most of the season at least) to adjust in NHL. So the chances are that he is not that effective the whole season compared to a guy who starts his 4th season.

And despite it being discussed numerous of times, I have no idea what is this talk about Girgs' "inconsistent defensive game". His offensive game last year left a lot to desire and concern, but if there was one really clear positive, it was his defensive game being really consistent. He had a good, consistent defensive game with pretty much everyone and in every position or role.

 

[DJN21]

Vesey needs at least a year in the nhl before this conversation had any real legs. Quite the pointless discussion as of right now...

 

[Aladyyn]

But to say something seriously to this Girgs v. Vesey thing.

Considering that Vesey doesn't really have any distinctively great element on his game (but not bad either), it's pretty difficult to say how his game will translate into NHL. His offensive game might not translate that well in the NHL, or it could translate.

Anyway, it most likely will take him some time (probably most of the season at least) to adjust in NHL. So the chances are that he is not that effective the whole season compared to a guy who starts his 4th season.

And despite it being discussed numerous of times, I have no idea what is this talk about Girgs' "inconsistent defensive game". His offensive game last year left a lot to desire and concern, but if there was one really clear positive, it was his defensive game being really consistent. He had a good, consistent defensive game with pretty much everyone and in every position or role.

I'm not that concerned about Girgs' offense, how many guys at his age can drive a line's offense by themselves? He killed it with Jack when they were together and that's valuable enough to me.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Would never even consider trading Girgensons or Bailey for Vesey and if we still had Compher and Lemieux the same. Fasching ..... dunno.

 

[DJN21]

Would never even consider trading Girgensons or Bailey for Vesey and if we still had Compher and Lemieux the same. Fasching ..... dunno.

I agree however I'd bet Fasching has a better career than Bailey. NOt ready to argue or compare, but throw a north to south powerforward like that on the wing of any of our centers and its a recipe for success. Bailey has the speed advantage but the rest of his game is far to raw to pinpoint right now. Lemieux will top out as a Matt Martin type with a low cieling of Kaleta...dont get me wrong I LOVE those types but his offensive game isn't likely to translate past the 12-15 range. Compher is the real kicker...he could be a real gem. His offensive game may never take him beyond a 40 point player but at worst I think he is the Marcus Kruger of a good team.

 

[Jame]

I think Vesey is the better player right now but I think Girgs has a chance to improve more. I think Vesey has the more complete game judging him on his college games. I think Vesey is the better goal scorer and has shown the more consistent defensive game.

Girgs may have a better step on him but the grit game is equal if not leaning slightly to the Vesey side.

I'm absolutely baffled by this post.


Girgs is a NHL player. Vesey is not yet.

Since Vesey hasn't played a single game in the NHL you can't definitively say he has a better two way game than Girgs because it was good in college. Nor can you say he has more grit or a more consistent defensive game than Girgs because of his college play either. Those statements need to be based on comparing like to like. College hockey compared to NHL hockey is not remotely comparing like to like. Until Vesey actually plays in the NHL and demonstrates these things you can't assert them to be the case. After next season we will have something to chew on.

If you had said Vesey had the potential for these things that would be a different story. But you specifically stated he is already as good or better than Girgs at these things based on his college play. Which was a head scratcher.

oh please... give it a rest

YOU may not feel comfortable judging a young non-nhl players skill against a similarly aged nhl player. Others do, and are free to make their own judgements.

 

[DJN21]

oh please... give it a rest

YOU may not feel comfortable judging a young non-nhl players skill against a similarly aged nhl player. Others do, and are free to make their own judgements

Girgensons is better. He has the better draft pedigree, the experience, the 2-way game, the physicality, the ability to play any forward position up and down the lineup, the compete (oh christ did I just say that?), the leadership, and frankly the age also on his side...oh an a 15 goal season which led to a not so earned all-star appearance. I have no problem saying Vesey may outscore Girgs more years than not but Vesey will never be the complete player Girgensons is.

 

[Jame]

Girgensons is better. He has the better draft pedigree, the experience, the 2-way game, the physicality, the ability to play any forward position up and down the lineup, the compete (oh christ did I just say that?), the leadership, and frankly the age also on his side...oh an a 15 goal season which led to a not so earned all-star appearance. I have no problem saying Vesey may outscore Girgs more years than not but Vesey will never be the complete player Girgensons is.

yea, I disagree with or don't care about at least half of those bullet points.

Draft - don't care
Experience - This one is interesting, especially given all the focus on "not rushing" and "developing properly". One could argue Vesey has the advantage in this area.
2 way game - you're right
physicality - you're right
Flexibility - Girgs has some flexibility, but not as much as people believe. basically as a value in comparing the two, it doesn't really matter to me.
compete - you're right
age - don't care
15 goal season - mirage... it's funny that in defining the ways that Girgs is better than Vesey, this is the only mention of offense/scoring...

 

[Aladyyn]

It's not like ROR and Eichel didn't have trouble scoring with Moulson and Gionta on their line...

 

[DJN21]

yea, I disagree with or don't care about at least half of those bullet points.

Draft - don't care
Experience - This one is interesting, especially given all the focus on "not rushing" and "developing properly". One could argue Vesey has the advantage in this area.
2 way game - you're right
physicality - you're right
Flexibility - Girgs has some flexibility, but not as much as people believe. basically as a value in comparing the two, it doesn't really matter to me.
compete - you're right
age - don't care
15 goal season - mirage... it's funny that in defining the ways that Girgs is better than Vesey, this is the only mention of offense/scoring...

I'll bite...

Your arguments were as such:

Draft-I'll concede, draft position doesn't really matter and I'd give away that one however I will lean towards trusting every scout who placed Girgs as a 1st rounder but Vesey's situation is clearly an outlier so whatever.

Experience- I won't concede, playing in the NHL and doing relatively well in that aspect will always beat playing against weak competition as a senior. Maybe I'll be wrong...oh well. Girgs can line up against good competition and shut the down NOW because of said experience...edge has to go to him.

Flexibility- Not sure how you can argue this. To the fundamental value of all things Girgs can play center and Vesey cant or has'nt. Even if I admit Girgs face off percentage needs work...he still can play any forward position, and can play pp or pk and this much has already been proven...Vesey needs a year or two before he can touch that.

Age and scoring...whatever its subjective...Radulov will outscore Girgensons this year but is older...I'll takethe guy who is similar in age but has seen it, but that doesn't mean Vesey wont outscore Girgs...that remains to be seen. I'd rather let Vesey play 1 game of meaningful hockey before cutting down a quality player like Girgensons but that doesn't mean 2 years from now the difference won't be minimal.

I can respect the opposing point of view but I value the 2-way play ontop of what I estimate will be a minimal point difference...then again I could be very wrong...such is life.

 

[Jame]

I'll bite...

Your arguments were as such:

Draft-I'll concede, draft position doesn't really matter and I'd give away that one however I will lean towards trusting every scout who placed Girgs as a 1st rounder but Vesey's situation is clearly an outlier so whatever.

It simply no longer matters... every scout who placed Ryan O'reilly outside the 1st round... just like every scout who ranked Yakupov ahead of Forsberg in that draft.

Experience- I won't concede, playing in the NHL and doing relatively well in that aspect will always beat playing against weak competition as a senior. Maybe I'll be wrong...oh well. Girgs can line up against good competition and shut the down NOW because of said experience...edge has to go to him.

I think it's interesting that we value Girgs experience, yet don't admit the obvious... rushing a player to the NHL has downsides. Rushing him to the NHL to a ill-equipped coaching staff/system (Rolston/Nolan), has even more potential downside. We constantly talk about the risk of rushing players to the NHL vs Developing them properly, but we fail to acknowledge the potential impact of that risk in Girgensons case.

Flexibility- Not sure how you can argue this. To the fundamental value of all things Girgs can play center and Vesey cant or has'nt. Even if I admit Girgs face off percentage needs work...he still can play any forward position, and can play pp or pk and this much has already been proven...Vesey needs a year or two before he can touch that.

Ennis CAN play center... but it's irrelevant.

Age and scoring...whatever its subjective...Radulov will outscore Girgensons this year but is older...I'll takethe guy who is similar in age but has seen it, but that doesn't mean Vesey wont outscore Girgs...that remains to be seen. I'd rather let Vesey play 1 game of meaningful hockey before cutting down a quality player like Girgensons but that doesn't mean 2 years from now the difference won't be minimal.

Yes, it is... but it's kind of a big deal. If I go back to your bullet points, aside from draft pedigree, they are all true statements in a comparison of Girgensons and Mitch Marner. get it?

Girgensons is better (than Marner). He has the better experience, the 2-way game, the physicality, the ability to play any forward position up and down the lineup, the compete (oh christ did I just say that?), the leadership, and frankly the age also on his side...oh an a 15 goal season which led to a not so earned all-star appearance. I have no problem saying Marner may outscore Girgs more years than not but Marner will never be the complete player Girgensons is.

I can respect the opposing point of view but I value the 2-way play ontop of what I estimate will be a minimal point difference...then again I could be very wrong...such is life.

I'll take that bet.

 

[Moskau]

Yes, it is... but it's kind of a big deal. If I go back to your bullet points, aside from draft pedigree, they are all true statements in a comparison of Girgensons and Mitch Marner. get it?

Girgensons is better (than Marner). He has the better experience, the 2-way game, the physicality, the ability to play any forward position up and down the lineup, the compete (oh christ did I just say that?), the leadership, and frankly the age also on his side...oh an a 15 goal season which led to a not so earned all-star appearance. I have no problem saying Marner may outscore Girgs more years than not but Marner will never be the complete player Girgensons is.




I'll take that bet.

Marner's NHLe is off the charts though. We're comparing two guys who put up similar stats at similar levels with an actual edge to Girgensons early on with Vesey as the late bloomer. Vesey is likely the better goal scorer and he can stay on his skates for longer than 3 seconds but other than that Girgensons gets the edge right now. Vesey actually has fairly average stats when adjusted to NHL production given the conference he played in. He did next to nothing against the better College teams. And his empty net production would make Evander Kane blush.

I'll give you the opinion that you have to look at Girgensons as possible damaged goods and look at Vesey as someone who has more potential to live up to though.

 

[joshjull]

oh please... give it a rest

YOU may not feel comfortable judging a young non-nhl players skill against a similarly aged nhl player. Others do, and are free to make their own judgements.

Nothing wrong with feeling Vesey will be better as a NHLer than Girgs. I actually said that in the post you quoted.

But I find it to be a bit ridiculous to base thinking he is already a better two way player, grittier and more consistent defensively on his college play. Those are arguments that require actual NHL games to compare.

 

[Jame]

Marner's NHLe is off the charts though. We're comparing two guys who put up similar stats at similar levels with an actual edge to Girgensons early on with Vesey as the late bloomer.

I guess I don't see the point in giving Girgs a ton of credit in this comparison/debate for being rushed to the NHL, it doesn't prove anything to me. Or I'm just not as interested in debating what can be stated as factual evidence, as I am in debating hockey ability/skills.

When the argument becomes "You can say you THINK he will be better, but you can't say that he IS better"... i just

Vesey is likely the better goal scorer and he can stay on his skates for longer than 3 seconds but other than that Girgensons gets the edge right now.

Understatement

Vesey actually has fairly average stats when adjusted to NHL production given the conference he played in. He did next to nothing against the better College teams. And his empty net production would make Evander Kane blush.

So you don't think he's that good of a scorer?

How come we only talk about goal scoring as an offensive ability in this debate? .

I'll give you the opinion that you have to look at Girgensons as possible damaged goods and look at Vesey as someone who has more potential to live up to though.

It never seems to come up in the Girgs debates... I mean, it comes up as an excuse for his lack of production this year, but never in the long term picture.

 

[Husko]

Girgs is the better and safer player by now, largely by way of the fact that he is a known commodity.

Vesey has a higher ceiling, in many respects by way of the fact that he's not a known commodity.

I'd rather have a Girgs in my playoff lineup.
But I bet Vesey's first post-ELC contract is bigger than Girgensons.

 

[gallagt01]

How high in terms of salary would you be willing to go on a long-term (6-7 years) deal for Girgensons?

I see this ending in a one-year deal for somewhere between $2 and $3 million, but I'm curious to see what everyone thinks.

 

[Jame]

How high in terms of salary would you be willing to go on a long-term (6-7 years) deal for Girgensons?

I see this ending in a one-year deal for somewhere between $2 and $3 million, but I'm curious to see what everyone thinks.

I wouldn't be willing to do a 6-7 year deal with a player coming off an ELC who has yet to establish their long term role with the team.

There's no way this ends in a 1 year deal at 2-3 million.

His 1 year qualifying offer is something around 1 million. What reason would GMTM have for giving him MORE than his qualifying offer for 1 year???

It's either a qualifying offer of around 1 mil for 1 year, or a 2 year deal that gets Buffalo some baked in value, while getting Girgs a higher QO in 2 years... something like Foligno's 2nd contract of 1.5/2.25, or a version of McCabe's 3 year deal.

Now that Vesey is resolved, i would assume negotiations will ramp up.

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

I wouldn't be willing to do a 6-7 year deal with a player coming off an ELC who has yet to establish their long term role with the team.

Agreed, however I will say the team hasn't really put him in a consistent role either. Between Rolston, Teddy and Disco Dan, his usage has been all over the place.

I honestly like him on a line with Jack and Sam. He brings physicality, forechecking, some finishing, and defensive responsibility. I honestly think that's best for everybody, including Girgenson's confidence and development.

 

[Jame]

Agreed, however I will say the team hasn't really put him in a consistent role either. Between Rolston, Teddy and Disco Dan, his usage has been all over the place.

I honestly like him on a line with Jack and Sam. He brings physicality, forechecking, some finishing, and defensive responsibility. I honestly think that's best for everybody, including Girgenson's confidence and development.

Agreed. I don't blame him for his lack of solidifying a role, but it's the reality.
I'd like to see him fully establish himself on that line first. We both want the same thing. Let's see him do it first. And if he makes himself unaffordable over RFA years... so be it. That's probably the best of both worlds... Girgs riding Eichel/Reinhart to good production numbers over 2 years, then flipping him for help elsewhere as Nylander/Bailey/Fasching push for top 6 roles.

 

[sabrebuild]

Agreed. I don't blame him for his lack of solidifying a role, but it's the reality.
I'd like to see him fully establish himself on that line first. We both want the same thing. Let's see him do it first. And if he makes himself unaffordable over RFA years... so be it. That's probably the best of both worlds... Girgs riding Eichel/Reinhart to good production numbers over 2 years, then flipping him for help elsewhere as Nylander/Bailey/Fasching push for top 6 roles.

Best world is taking the chance that you know girgs is a legitimate top 9 grinder and you sign him to a long deal at the lowest possible money.

Flip him if the younger prospects over take him, on a cap friendly deal.

But I don't see a player you need to wait for a dumb dumb coach to play on a single role to prove he has solidified a position.

He has shown in the last two years, at a very young age, to be a quality player who can fit several roles.

I see no reason to let him build a bigger resume to price himself out.

 

[Jame]

Best world is taking the chance that you know girgs is a legitimate top 9 grinder and you sign him to a long deal at the lowest possible money.

That's a mythical world where there is a good reason for Girgs to sign for "lowest possible money" over the long term.

 

[sabrebuild]

That's a mythical world where there is a good reason for Girgs to sign for "lowest possible money" over the long term.

Sure he might not take it.

But your post seemingly implied you wouldn't even offer it... if that was not what you meant ok.

But I don't see a point in waiting for him to "solidify" his role. He is solid. A really good player. We know he is a guy who will win match ups and cause problems for other teams.

I would want to know what his baseline is. I'd gamble on 6 x 2.5, perhaps 6 x 3.

Then again I think he will have a monster year and I would rather get ahead of it, but I could be wrong.

 

[Jame]

Sure he might not take it.

But your post seemingly implied you wouldn't even offer it... if that was not what you meant ok.

But I don't see a point in waiting for him to "solidify" his role. He is solid. A really good player. We know he is a guy who will win match ups and cause problems for other teams.

I would want to know what his baseline is. I'd gamble on 6 x 2.5, perhaps 6 x 3.

Then again I think he will have a monster year and I would rather get ahead of it, but I could be wrong.

I wouldn't offer him a realistic 6-7 year deal. Those are not realistic deals (unless he has the same agent as Calle Jarnkrok.

 

[joshjull]

I guess I don't see the point in giving Girgs a ton of credit in this comparison/debate for being rushed to the NHL, it doesn't prove anything to me.

Its not about giving him credit. Its pointing out that comparing their respective developments to this point is comparing apples to oranges.

It never seems to come up in the Girgs debates... I mean, it comes up as an excuse for his lack of production this year, but never in the long term picture.

Why would it be brought up? (Girgs as damaged goods that is).

I find it to be very odd that the guy developing in the toughest league gets the least amount of rope. But some of the guys he's compared to get all the time they need to develop their games in lesser leagues. (Vesey right now or your creation from last summer that is a running thing with you, Larsson vs Girgs.)

Larsson for example took until his 6th post draft season (last year) to become a NHL regular. Not a criticism since its perfectly normal.

Vesey will be in his 5th year post draft (6th year post draft eligible) next season as a rookie. Essentially the same age Larsson become a NHL regular

Girgs will be in the same development time frame (6th season post draft/draft eligible year) in the 17-18 season. Yet he is "damaged goods" because he isn't a finished product yet? I would think common sense would tell us that it will probably take longer and it will be harder to develop in the NHL. As opposed to the AHL or NCAA. I would think in the next couple years we will know what we have with him.