Zaitsev

[KessMeRandy]

Couldn't find a player discussion thread for Zaitsev (forgive me, mods), but I have a few comments on the guy. He seems like he has a calming demeanour, and I like that. That said, I'm not sure he's that great at actually playing hockey. First, he's framed as an offensive defenceman but scores at a markedly slower clip than Gards and Mo both 5on5 and PP. He frequently makes bad reads. He has poor gap control. He isn't the strongest high danger defender and he seems to have a tough time in nearly all shot metrics, including suppression, generation, and CF%. Perhaps most puzzingly, he doesn't really pass the eye test, skating aside. I'm not sure what the organization sees in Z, and I hope he proves me wrong, but I contend that giving him a 7 year contract worth north of 28 million would be a poor decision, especially given the strong RFA, UFA, expansion eligible crop this summer.

Anybody see anything I don't?

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[thewave]

I think he looks mentally sluggish from the hit. Would still give him a 6x4m though.

 

[Barilko14]

He's on the same tier as Gardiner or Rielly defensively anyways. Put him against weaker competition and we'll all be singing his praises, play him against the best of the best each night, and he'll have some bad nights.

I'm pretty happy with him overall, and I believe he'll look better as the D around him improve and take a bit of pressure off him.

Additonally, there is a strong RFA crop every year, with very few of them moving around. Not sure I agree on this being a strong UFA crop? I see two at the top that will be overpaid and a couple of other ones that would be an improvement on our bottom pairing, certainly not better than Zaitsev.

I also doubt we would find an improvement on Zaitsev through the X draft wheeling and dealing period.

 

[ChrisCall]

He has been not great in the playoffs, and i'm not sure if he's playing hurt (that hit on the boards looked as much lower body as upper). I think Grapes is being a bit aggressive, as Zaitsev is clearly an NHL defender, but i would say i think the jury is still out on if he is a #2, 3, 4, or 5 D-Man.

Gardiner, for example, is clearly a #3. You play him on the top assignments and he struggles, but given secondary situations, he dominates. AAAA player if you will, on the jump from 3, to 2. Zaitsev might be the same. There's nothing wrong with that of course. Is it worth 4.5 Mil x 7? If he's going to be that for the duration of the contract, then maybe, actually, yes. Certainly not more though.

In the end, there's a lot of dumb management groups in the NHL, but, for once, this isn't one of them. At least, they have yet to prove otherwise. Yeah, they'll make a mistake or two eventually, but so far everything they've touched has turned to gold. If they've looked at all the numbers and decided this guy is worth it, then i'll trust them on it.

 

[fahad203]

He has been not great in the playoffs, and i'm not sure if he's playing hurt (that hit on the boards looked as much lower body as upper). I think Grapes is being a bit aggressive, as Zaitsev is clearly an NHL defender, but i would say i think the jury is still out on if he is a #2, 3, 4, or 5 D-Man.

Gardiner, for example, is clearly a #3. You play him on the top assignments and he struggles, but given secondary situations, he dominates. AAAA player if you will, on the jump from 3, to 2. Zaitsev might be the same. There's nothing wrong with that of course. Is it worth 4.5 Mil x 7? If he's going to be that for the duration of the contract, then maybe, actually, yes. Certainly not more though.

In the end, there's a lot of dumb management groups in the NHL, but, for once, this isn't one of them. At least, they have yet to prove otherwise. Yeah, they'll make a mistake or two eventually, but so far everything they've touched has turned to gold. If they've looked at all the numbers and decided this guy is worth it, then i'll trust them on it.

He's a #3 A good supporting D. In the regular season you are not always playing the best team every other night. You can make mistakes and not get burned by it. These are the playoffs, every mistake are magnified, every play has to be perfect. A lot of D in this league will get exposed

That's not to take away the fact he's a good D and still has some upside

 

[Duffman955]

He was rock solid for the first 60 games.

Faded down the stretch badly. Its a fitness and conditioning issue. Your evaluation looks like it was made recently which is unfair to zaitsev coming back from injury.

 

[KessMeRandy]

He was rock solid for the first 60 games.

Faded down the stretch badly. Its a fitness and conditioning issue. Your evaluation looks like it was made recently which is unfair to zaitsev coming back from injury.

He has been a bottom tier defender in nearly all shot metrics consistently over the course of the entire year.

 

[saltming]

He was rock solid for the first 60 games.

Faded down the stretch badly. Its a fitness and conditioning issue. Your evaluation looks like it was made recently which is unfair to zaitsev coming back from injury.

These are the 2 main issues here. Khl season is shorter and his injury recovery probably should have been longer.
Also, though some may be loath to agree with, Polak is the one guy that is string enough to shut ovi down. When he was here the lifting was easier for the entire D corps.

 

[Legion34]

I just hope it isn't a concussion. If he is playing after that it's bad. I hate how Babcock calls the training staff out in media and pressures people back

Marner has looked like junk after the injury. Z too. Hell if the leafs make round 2 he may want polka back

 

[KessMeRandy]

He's on the same tier as Gardiner or Rielly defensively anyways. Put him against weaker competition and we'll all be singing his praises, play him against the best of the best each night, and he'll have some bad nights.

I'm pretty happy with him overall, and I believe he'll look better as the D around him improve and take a bit of pressure off him.

Additonally, there is a strong RFA crop every year, with very few of them moving around. Not sure I agree on this being a strong UFA crop? I see two at the top that will be overpaid and a couple of other ones that would be an improvement on our bottom pairing, certainly not better than Zaitsev.

I also doubt we would find an improvement on Zaitsev through the X draft wheeling and dealing period.

Minnesota, Anaheim, and Calgary will all lose defenders to the expansion draft that are objectively better than Zaitsev unless they trade them first.

 

[realgoodleafs]

He's a second pairing guy and they go for 5+ per year in free agency.

 

[Barilko14]

He has been a bottom tier defender in nearly all shot metrics consistently over the course of the entire year.

Where does he rank in QOC? Those same metrics painted a pretty poor picture of Rielly this season as well, how he's he looked when he's been player against weaker comp?

 

[realgoodleafs]

Minnesota, Anaheim, and Calgary will all lose defenders to the expansion draft that are objectively better than Zaitsev unless they trade them first.

They aren't going to be losing them to the Leafs so what difference does it make? Even if you can trade for a defenceman this summer we still need Zaitsev.

 

[Mess]

I've noticed that the playoff Zaitsev is NOT as impressive as the regular season one.

Since returning from injury he seems gun shy and afraid to get hit. He seems to be more concerned about playing the puck like a hot potatoe trying to get rid of it ASAP to avoid getting hit.

With the hitting and physical play ramping up, he is become less effective and in fact putting his teammates in vulnerable postions due to try his own self preservation tactics. The other day he had OV coming in on him in his own zone and quickly dump the puck away behind the net to Gardiner and OV simply chased the puck and steamrolled Gardiner on the play as he was now in the tracks.

I hope management is noticing this and that long-term deal a little more of concern based on what they have seen from him in the playoffs.

 

[Barilko14]

Minnesota, Anaheim, and Calgary will all lose defenders to the expansion draft that are objectively better than Zaitsev unless they trade them first.

I would take Zaitsev over Vatanen on this current team 100%. Who is Calgary going to lose on the backend? Agree with Minny.

So 1 team. That's not a lot of options.

 

[Leafsforever89]

Zaitsev is getting better with each game he plays.

 

[Barilko14]

I've noticed that the playoff Zaitsev is NOT as impressive as the regular season one.

Since returning from injury he seems gun shy and afraid to get hit. He seems to be more concerned about playing the puck like a hot potatoe trying to get rid of it ASAP to avoid getting hit.

With the hitting and physical play ramping up, he is become less effective and in fact putting his teammates in vulnerable postions due to try his own self preservation tactics. The other day he had OV coming in on him in his own zone and quickly dump the puck away behind the net to Gardiner and OV simply chased the puck and steamrolled Gardiner on the play as he was now in the tracks.

I hope management is noticing this and that long-term deal a little more of concern based on what they have seen from him in the playoffs.

Not a great example. That was the right play, he just didn't get enough on the pass to give Gardiner a chance to move it without getting steamrolled.

Taking the hit and coughing up the puck is obviously worst case scenario in that spot.

When a guy gets his bell rung, it's pretty natural to be a little gunshy for the next few games, just sucks those games happen to be the most important of the year.

 

[Joedoggy]

I've noticed that the playoff Zaitsev is NOT as impressive as the regular season one.

Since returning from injury he seems gun shy and afraid to get hit. He seems to be more concerned about playing the puck like a hot potatoe trying to get rid of it ASAP to avoid getting hit.

With the hitting and physical play ramping up, he is become less effective and in fact putting his teammates in vulnerable postions due to try his own self preservation tactics. The other day he had OV coming in on him in his own zone and quickly dump the puck away behind the net to Gardiner and OV simply chased the puck and steamrolled Gardiner on the play as he was now in the tracks.

I hope management is noticing this and that long-term deal a little more of concern based on what they have seen from him in the playoffs.

Good job...the key here line 1 par 2, Physical/hitting/ply ramping up, secondly "self preservation", 3 key top notch reads on your part, the team is actually full of this problem, when its just pond hockey its fun otherwise your points are spot on.

If you can count on one hand with three fingers folded over which players have the ability and intestinal fortitude to to push back physically you will be hard pressed. Then count on the same hand who on the leafs can make opposing players physical game disappear and crawl into a hole, one comes to mind. Good read nice someone understands what they are seeing, without all the raw raw rookie stuff.

Get behind the bench and role 4 lines and you got the job.

 

[1specter]

He's clearly not 100%, he didn't look anything like this during the regular season.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Seems like he's playing concussed. Not bashing but his reads aren't as sharp as they were in the post-season.

 

[Garthinater]

Problem is he isn't a defense man, hes a forward :p

 

[Menzinger]

Long term there's not much to worry about, he's coming off a nasty injury and didn't have any time to get back into playing form and had to jump right into the most intense hockey of the season.

His readjustment to getting back into playing for is also constrained by the fact that the Leafs desperately needed help m back in the lineup - not a great recovery environment

 

[Jeypic]

Not a great example. That was the right play, he just didn't get enough on the pass to give Gardiner a chance to move it without getting steamrolled.

Taking the hit and coughing up the puck is obviously worst case scenario in that spot.

When a guy gets his bell rung, it's pretty natural to be a little gunshy for the next few games, just sucks those games happen to be the most important of the year.

I agree with this guy

 

[Peasy]

Dudes been terrible in the playoffs. Losing his man in the defensive zone several times a game. He also seems to panic when he gets the puck now. There were so many times last night where once he got the puck in his zone he just threw it up the boards without taking a look around, even when no one was near him. Hes clearly scared to get hit.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Where does he rank in QOC? Those same metrics painted a pretty poor picture of Rielly this season as well, how he's he looked when he's been player against weaker comp?

Quit trying to use logic and common sense.

But seriously Leaf nation is ridiculously hard on Dmen and fail to evaluate our D in context. Phaneuf, Murphy, Gill, Beauchemin, etc., etc. were all booed out of town but turns out they're actually good Dman. Just they were asked to do far too much.

Rielly + Zaitsev are now getting the same treatment.

Leaf nation is also unrealistic what 5M or less get you for a Dman (rumored cost extension cost for Z is 4.5).