Speculation: Zadina and Rasmussen are BOTH Busts!

[Steve Yzerlland]

6th and 9th overall draft picks. Doesn't look like either will ever be an elite player like we were hoping. I knew it was unlikely but I was hoping for Zadina to be AT LEAST a 30 goal scorer. I thought he was Kucherov 2.0 . Ras looks like a career 4th liner/ ahl guy. What a disappointment. If these guys would do anything close to what was expected the rebuild would probably be over. Not saying it's all on them but they literally are never expected to produce any offense.

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[Winger98]

I think your expectation for the likely outcome of 6th and 9th overall picks is way off.

 

[lhsgolf19]

They are 21 and 22, my god man... This Forum lol

 

[RedWingzz]

No?

A bust is a player that never really plays. Both Zadina and Ras are playing regular NHL minutes, and don't look out of place.
If your question was "have Zadina and Rasmussen both been underwhelming", then the answer would definitely be yes, but they aren't busts at all.

They are what they are at this point. Zadina will get hot eventually, and should be a solid 2nd line winger capable of 40-50 points on most years. Ras is turning into a defensive specialist, which is fine, but obviously not what you want t 9th overall. Ras was a terrible pick ever since draft day.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

They are 21 and 22, my god man... This Forum lol

You are expecting a drastic turn around?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I think your expectation for the likely outcome of 6th and 9th overall picks is way off.

Where do they rank with 6th and 9th overall picks by your estimation?

 

[The Flying Octopus]

Maybe SY can use them as bait to bring in more capable D. He did trade Drouin, so trading Z or Ras is not off the table.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

No?

A bust is a player that never really plays. Both Zadina and Ras are playing regular NHL minutes, and don't look out of place.
If your question was "have Zadina and Rasmussen both been underwhelming", then the answer would definitely be yes, but they aren't busts at all.

They are what they are at this point. Zadina will get hot eventually, and should be a solid 2nd line winger capable of 40-50 points on most years. Ras is turning into a defensive specialist, which is fine, but obviously not what you want t 9th overall. Ras was a terrible pick ever since draft day.

My definition of bust is if I had an opportunity to redraft again I would never consider them at those slots and that is the case with both of them unfortunately as of yet.

 

[jkutswings]

They are what they are at this point. Zadina will get hot eventually, and should be a solid 2nd line winger capable of 40-50 points on most years. Ras is turning into a defensive specialist, which is fine, but obviously not what you want t 9th overall. Ras was a terrible pick ever since draft day.

I agree with nearly all of this, except that I'm far less confident that Zadina becomes what you project. I know some of it is just being snakebitten, but the guy still goes back and forth between shifts where he's bringing all the right energy, and shifts where he looks kinda lost.

Nothing we can do about it, but it's still a shame that two top ten picks will likely continue to underwhelm.

 

[wingfan]

I think your expectation for the likely outcome of 6th and 9th overall picks is way off.

Are they though? Look at these lists for the 10 previous picks at 6th and 9th:

6th Overall:
Cody Glass
Matthew Tkachuk
Pavel Zacha
Jake Virtanen
Sean Monahan
Hampus Lindholm
Mika Zibanejad
Brett Connolly
OEL
Nikita Filatov

9th Overall:
Mikhail Sergachev
Timo Meier
Nikolaj Ehlers
Rasmus Ristolainen
Jacob Trouba
Dougie Hamilton
Mikael Granlund
Jared Cowen
Josh Bailey
Logan Couture

There's literally only three players in there that aren't at least very solid middle six/top four defensemen and only two are true busts in Virtanen and Filatov as Cowen had a string of a few years where he was the guy in Ottawa.. Looking at that list, the vast majority of these players have appeared in an all star game..

 

[lhsgolf19]

You are expecting a drastic turn around?

It's Zadina's 2nd full season in the NHL, Ras' 3rd... Come on man, it's a little early.

 

[Red Stanley]

Just as a side note, you might want to make the thread title and the poll question the same as to not cause confusion.

P.S. You can already see that being the case just from the first few posts. I had to change my vote for this reason, too.

 

[lilidk]

Definitely to early to tell. Both were rushed to play in NHL. Will be interesting to compare Zadina and Rasmussen to Veleno and Bergreen but in about 5 years from now

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Was Zadina ever projected to be at Kucherov level?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

It's Zadina's 2nd full season in the NHL, Ras' 3rd... Come on man, it's a little early.

And they look on schedule to you?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Was Zadina ever projected to be at Kucherov level?

I seen forums in the past comparing him to Kucherov. Also Pasta and Tarasenko...

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Just as a side note, you might want to make the thread title and the poll question the same as to not cause confusion.

P.S. You can already see that being the case just from the first few posts. I had to change my vote for this reason, too.

Can't change the poll question . You can answer the question and discuss the title in the thread though I promise...

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Are they though? Look at these lists for the 10 previous picks at 6th and 9th:

6th Overall:
Cody Glass
Matthew Tkachuk
Pavel Zacha
Jake Virtanen
Sean Monahan
Hampus Lindholm
Mika Zibanejad
Brett Connolly
OEL
Nikita Filatov

9th Overall:
Mikhail Sergachev
Timo Meier
Nikolaj Ehlers
Rasmus Ristolainen
Jacob Trouba
Dougie Hamilton
Mikael Granlund
Jared Cowen
Josh Bailey
Logan Couture

There's literally only three players in there that aren't at least very solid middle six/top four defensemen and only two are true busts in Virtanen and Filatov as Cowen had a string of a few years where he was the guy in Ottawa.. Looking at that list, the vast majority of these players have appeared in an all star game..

This. Thank you. The only thing Zadina and Ras have going for them is it relatively still early. But make no mistake they aren't living up to their expectations whatsoever IMO...

 

[Red Stanley]

Can't change the poll question . You can answer the question and discuss the title in the thread though I promise...

I know, but it looks like some people are answering the title as if it's the actual poll question, which would reverse the meaning of a yes or no answer.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I know, but it looks like some people are answering the title as if it's the actual poll question, which would reverse the meaning of a yes or no answer.

I tried to change it, it won't let me. If you read the question it will help a lot. Read before you select?
I also edited the first post...

 

[HisNoodliness]

My definition of bust is if I had an opportunity to redraft again I would never consider them at those slots and that is the case with both of them unfortunately as of yet.

Honestly that's a pretty impossible standard for every player to meet. People drafted after them will be better than they are. Would you rather flip a 50/50 coin once or a 1/100 coin 200 times? Even though the 50/50 is way more likely to give you the right result, over the course of 200 flips you have a 90% chance of getting heads with the 1/100. Zadina and Rasmussen are competing with everyone drafted after them. If they end up the ~15-30th best players from their drafts, they're not busts at all. They were non-optimal picks.

I'm very willing to call them non-optimal picks at this point. Either could figure things out and get back to their draft expectation, but even if they don't, it's okay. They can be good players for us. I hated picking Ras at 9. I ranted for weeks beforehand about how he was a horrendous option at that spot... But he's a fine player. Would I rather Necas? Obviously, but we can't take Necas.

So what's the point in throwing a label on them now? Are we so desperate for vindication that we have to call a prospect a bust as soon as we're dissatisfied with their play? It's obvious both are still developing. It's obvious that both would go lower in a redraft right now. Either could change that. Even if they don't, both are okay players that very well should be good ones with a bit of time. Did I want Zadina to be a 40 goal, 90 point monster? Absolutely. With his tools on draft day, I thought that was possible. It hasn't happened. If he pots 20 goals, 50 points from our second line for his age 23-29 seasons, well that's still a good player to have. That's where I see Zadina developing right now.

I see no benefit to writing off either of them right now. They're young, they're finding their ways and they were drafted a little too high (probably). That doesn't mean we have to hate them. I'd rather Ras develops into a good player than be vindicated that he'd suck... Where he was drafted doesn't matter anymore. He's a fine player. Appreciate him for what he is and give him a chance to be better. Same with Zadina

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Honestly that's a pretty impossible standard for every player to meet. People drafted after them will be better than they are. Would you rather flip a 50/50 coin once or a 1/100 coin 200 times? Even though the 50/50 is way more likely to give you the right result, over the course of 200 flips you have a 90% chance of getting heads with the 1/100. Zadina and Rasmussen are competing with everyone drafted after them. If they end up the ~15-30th best players from their drafts, they're not busts at all. They were non-optimal picks.

I'm very willing to call them non-optimal picks at this point. Either could figure things out and get back to their draft expectation, but even if they don't, it's okay. They can be good players for us. I hated picking Ras at 9. I ranted for weeks beforehand about how he was a horrendous option at that spot... But he's a fine player. Would I rather Necas? Obviously, but we can't take Necas.

So what's the point in throwing a label on them now? Are we so desperate for vindication that we have to call a prospect a bust as soon as we're dissatisfied with their play? It's obvious both are still developing. It's obvious that both would go lower in a redraft right now. Either could change that. Even if they don't, both are okay players that very well should be good ones with a bit of time. Did I want Zadina to be a 40 goal, 90 point monster? Absolutely. With his tools on draft day, I thought that was possible. It hasn't happened. If he pots 20 goals, 50 points from our second line for his age 23-29 seasons, well that's still a good player to have. That's where I see Zadina developing right now.

I see no benefit to writing off either of them right now. They're young, they're finding their ways and they were drafted a little too high (probably). That doesn't mean we have to hate them. I'd rather Ras develops into a good player than be vindicated that he'd suck... Where he was drafted doesn't matter anymore. He's a fine player. Appreciate him for what he is and give him a chance to be better. Same with Zadina

I agree with most of this it's just very frustrating to have two young lottery picks in the lineup and assume they will do nothing offensively night after night....

 

[HisNoodliness]

I agree with most of this it's just very frustrating to have two young lottery picks in the lineup and assume they will do nothing offensively night after night....

It's fair being frustrated with their draft position at this point. But there's so much hate thrown their way on these forums. I can understand "I'm disappointed with Zadina relative to his draft spot so far" but it has turned into "Zadina's a bust, get him off my team" for some of us and I can't get it.

Are they though? Look at these lists for the 10 previous picks at 6th and 9th:

6th Overall:
Cody Glass
Matthew Tkachuk
Pavel Zacha
Jake Virtanen
Sean Monahan
Hampus Lindholm
Mika Zibanejad
Brett Connolly
OEL
Nikita Filatov

9th Overall:
Mikhail Sergachev
Timo Meier
Nikolaj Ehlers
Rasmus Ristolainen
Jacob Trouba
Dougie Hamilton
Mikael Granlund
Jared Cowen
Josh Bailey
Logan Couture

There's literally only three players in there that aren't at least very solid middle six/top four defensemen and only two are true busts in Virtanen and Filatov as Cowen had a string of a few years where he was the guy in Ottawa.. Looking at that list, the vast majority of these players have appeared in an all star game..

Look at the trajectories for those 6 OA players though. If we're going to call Zacha a solid middle 6 forward, then we have to acknowledge he didn't become that until 22/23 years old. Zibanejad was a middling NHL player at 20, a second liner at 23 and a star at 26. Isn't that exactly the type of trajectory that gives you hope for Zadina? Cody Glass is in the AHL right now. So by my count for your Zadina list we have Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm and OEL were more immediate successes. Zacha, Zibanejad and Connolly were no better at the same age and developed later (Connolly less so). Glass is older and further behind, Virtanen and Filatov are busts. Your list makes him look very very average for a 6th OA player at this point in his career. If anything you've made me more optimistic about his star potential by bringing up Zibs.

You can do this for the Ras list too. He's not doing as well, but honestly he's not that far behind.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

It's fair being frustrated with their draft position at this point. But there's so much hate thrown their way on these forums. I can understand "I'm disappointed with Zadina relative to his draft spot so far" has turned into "Zadina's a bust, get him off my team" for some of us and I can't get it.




Look at the trajectories for those 6 OA players though. If we're going to call Zacha a solid middle 6 forward, then we have to acknowledge he didn't become that until 22/23 years old. Zibabejad was a middling NHL player at 20, a second liner at 23 and a star at 26. Isn't that exactly the type of trajectory that gives you hope for Zadina. Cody Glass is in the AHL right now. So by my count for your Zadina list we have Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm and OEL were more immediate successes. Zacha, Zibabejad and Connolly were no better at the same age and developed later (Connolly less so). Glass is older and further behind, Virtanen and Filatov are busts. Your list makes him look very very average for a 6th OA player at this point in his career.

You can do this for the Ras list too. He's not doing as well, but honestly he's not that far behind.

I didn't say I wanted them off of the team I want them to produce at least every 3-4 games at this point. They literally do zero offensively night after night.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Where do they rank with 6th and 9th overall picks by your estimation?

Why estimate when we have data that I gathered.

Zadina: 105 GP, 44 P, 0.419 PPG -- He's 0.07 points per game behind the average for 6th overall. That equates to 5.74 points over a full 82 game season. 7.35 points in 105 games. Zadina's statistical performance is...let's call it 8 points behind the average of all 6th overall picks over the past 20 years to this point in his career.

Rasmussen: 121 GP, 37 P, 0.306 PPG -- He's 0.12 points per game behind the average for 9th overall. 9.84 points behind pace over a full 82 game season. 14.52 points in 121 games.

The conclusion is:

They aren't remotely close to busts. But they obviously aren't outperforming their draft position. I know people will counter this point, but especially Zadina has been snake bit over the past two years. We are talking about one heater and he's above the average performance of his draft position fairly easily.

Of course, this is looking only at statistical production. The improvements in Zadina's defensive/forecheck play, and Rasmussen's defensive play that has found him on the PK are two things that are completely unrepresented in this analysis. I feel confident that for their age, they are likely above the average for forwards in their draft position at the same age.

And they look on schedule to you?

Or if you'd rather, we can look at the players who came in the 5 drafts before them through their similar games played mark. I can only do one right now because I have a meeting to hop into, but here's Zadina's 6th overall peers ranked by PPG (I even threw in Zibby for you):

2016. Matthew Tkachuk: 105 GP, 19 G, 67 P, 0.638 PPG
2013. Sean Monahan: 105 GP, 33 G, 54 P, 0.514 PPG
2011. Mika Zibanejad: 105 GP, 18 G, 46 P, 0.438 PPG
2018. Filip Zadina: 105 GP, 18 G, 44 P, 0.419 PPG
2015. Pavel Zacha: 105 GP, 11 G, 37 P, 0.352 PPG
2017. Cody Glass: 68 GP, 9 G, 22 P, 0.324 PPG
2014. Jake Virtanen: 105 GP, 13 G, 24 P, 0.229 PPG

Lessons Learned:

• Not busts
• Not stars
• Your hopes for a player (or organizational needs for a star) should not determine your expectations