Value of: Zach Werenski (hypothetically!)

[elitepete]

And what else?

Olli Juolevi

 

[CapnZin]

lmao

We already know Hagg isn’t good at all. He was also a rookie last year. Idk if that extra year for Werenski was his best year to fit the narrative, but I’d be interested to see that from 2017 on to keep it standardized.

But damn, that’s really impressive. I didn’t realize Werenski was only used as a 4th forward. There probably have been more, but is he the most used offensively minded Dman, to start in the Ozone, in the league? Like does he ever start off in the Dzone? Does he ever have to play defense?

I really think the only Dman with less Dzone starts than Werenski used to be a forward; Brent Burns.

 

[NoName]

. I'd say contracts aside Matthews v Jones is debatable, but with contracts, there's no debate.

Unless you are a die-hard Columbus fan, it really isn’t. Look at Matthews career numbers: 160gp, 90 goals, 68 assists, 158 points. Currently has 16gp, 16 goals, 10 assists and 26 points.

There is a reason the players of the NHL recently voted him the third best player in the entire league to build a franchise around behind only McDavid and Crosby: NHL players see Leafs’ Auston Matthews as one to build around | The Star

 

[NoName]

I like how there is never ever a proposal where Toronto trades Marner for lesser players+, yet they constantly ask other teams to trade their studs for Nylander+.

Why would they? the team is 20-9-1 and a legitimate contender. Generally (but not always) teams in that position don’t ship out the best single player in a deal for multiple lesser parts/futures, since that usually hurts their ability to contend immediately, even if in the long run it can pay dividends (which is why rebuilding teams often do this).

Furthermore you seem to be ignoring a key part of what I actually wrote which is that any hypothetical Werenski for Marner trade would need a substantial add at this point on the part of Columbus to even out the values... so yeah, right here is a Leafs fan talking about a hypothetical trade where Toronto is shipping out the best player for another player plus; what that plus is would be debatable, realistically the Leafs need a RHD not an LHD which is the first big stumbling block in any Werenski trade.

But I guess it is just more convenient for you to shape reality to fit tour preconceptions of fans of another team.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Why would they? the team is 20-9-1 and a legitimate contender. Generally (but not always) teams in that position don’t ship out the best single player in a deal for multiple lesser parts/futures, since that usually hurts their ability to contend immediately, even if in the long run it can pay dividends (which is why rebuilding teams often do this).

Furthermore you seem to be ignoring a key part of what I actually wrote which is that any hypothetical Werenski for Marner trade would need a substantial add at this point on the part of Columbus to even out the values... so yeah, right here is a Leafs fan talking about a hypothetical trade where Toronto is shipping out the best player for another player plus.

But I guess it is just more convenient for you to shape reality to fit tour preconceptions of fans of another team.

Honestly Toronto Won't be a true contender until they fix their D squad. Reilly is good, but a part from him all the D squad can't play in their own zone.

 

[NoName]

Honestly Toronto Won't be a true contender until they fix their D squad. Reilly is good, but a part from him all the D squad can't play in their own zone.

Their record would indicate otherwise. Also, let me point to the last three Cup winning teams that won with a stellar forward corps and a merely adequate defence.

They are not the favourites (Tampa is clearly the best in the NHL on paper), but it is streching reality not to call them contenders. There are almost no teams without any holes whatsoever in their roster, even among contenders (eg. Washington and Pittsburgh on the blue-line, Nashville with a top-end centre), that is the nature of the salary cap era. Tampa really does look like the only team without any holes at key positions, which is why they are my pick to win it all, however they are not the only team with a solid shot, and the cold hard numbers eould squarely place Toronto in the select list of teams with a real chance.

 

[major major]

Unless you are a die-hard Columbus fan, it really isn’t. Look at Matthews career numbers: 160gp, 90 goals, 68 assists, 158 points. Currently has 16gp, 16 goals, 10 assists and 26 points.

His career points aren't the best selling point. 158 pts in 160 games for a forward isn't so impressive these days. There's a lot of point-per-game players right now. Seth Jones is about point-per-game over his last 40 games, and points aside is the much more valuable player than Matthews. Matthews got owned in the playoffs, if he's going to be solidly ahead of Jones he has to be at least as good as him in the playoffs. And he needs to produce at this year's pace for a lot longer than 16 games, and hope that Jones isn't anywhere close production wise.

 

[NoName]

His career points aren't the best selling point. 158 pts in 160 games for a forward isn't so impressive these days. There's a lot of point-per-game players right now. Seth Jones is about point-per-game over his last 40 games, and points aside is the much more valuable player than Matthews. Matthews got owned in the playoffs, if he's going to be solidly ahead of Jones he has to be at least as good as him in the playoffs. And he needs to produce at this year's pace for a lot longer than 16 games, and hope that Jones isn't anywhere close production wise.

Please list for me what other players in their early 20s who have a career ppg pace after three seasons? Mackinnon? No., Eichel? No. Rantenen? No., Laine? No. Barzal mught be the closest of the bunch. McDavid obviously blows the ppgs pace away but he is the undisputed best in the NHL.

It is way less common then you seem to believe. As for “right now”, right now he has 16 goals and 26 points in 16 games. That is impressive no matter how you slice it. Also 90 goals in 160 games is just absurd. Only Laine is near a simular goal production pace for that entire generation.

If you post a poll on HF whether people on HF boards would perfer to have Matthews or Jones on your team, you know exactly what the result would be. It would be the same as the poll they gave the actual NHL players here.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

let me point to the last three Cup winning teams that won with a stellar forward corps and a merely adequate defence.

stopped right there.

Wash and Pitts ( yes even without letang) had a WAY better D core than Toronto. Offense is not everything.... you need a good defensive D core

Example:
Toronto only really have Reilly that play well in his own zone.
Pitts had Schultz and Dumoulin and Wash Had Carlsson and Orlov. Toronto has no player who are as good Defensively.

Bottom line, I can't see Toronto going further than a first round of playoff because of how weak and nervous your players are in their own zone. Reilly is not enough.. you need some Defensive D who are used to play well in their own zone.

 

[major major]

But damn, that’s really impressive. I didn’t realize Werenski was only used as a 4th forward. There probably have been more, but is he the most used offensively minded Dman, to start in the Ozone, in the league? Like does he ever start off in the Dzone? Does he ever have to play defense?

I really think the only Dman with less Dzone starts than Werenski used to be a forward; Brent Burns.

Wait you are taking the Hagg comparison seriously? That was a joke.

Of course you play guys like Burns and Werenski in the offensive zone. The offensive contribution is more important. Even if he was an above average defender (Werenski is not), the best way to win would be to play him in the offensive zone and let guys like Murray handle the D zone starts.

 

[Viqsi]

If you post a poll on HF whether people on HF boards would perfer to have Matthews or Jones on your team, you know exactly what the result would be.

Very close, slightly favoring Matthews. Because rational folks recognize there's a debate, and the Leafs homer crew would be held back by the Leafs haters, and everyone else just thinks "ooh, forwards means scoring, shiny".

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

slightly favoring Matthews

lmao, sure.
Jones is a stud but it's not even on the same level of Matthews. Jesus.. it's not "slightly" it would be 80% over 20%

 

[major major]

It is way less common then you seem to believe. As for “right now”, right now he has 16 goals and 26 points in 16 games. That is impressive no matter how you slice it. Also 90 goals in 160 games is just absurd. Only Laine is near a simular goal production pace for that entire generation.

I was saying there are a lot of point-per-game players right now. It's what Matthews does above that mark that matters. Of course 26 pts in 16 games is nice, I never knocked it, I said he has to keep doing it. Cam Atkinson has 13 goals and 7 assists in his last 13 games, he'd have to keep doing it too.

This is an issue with Leaf fans - I get the potential - but you'd think from what they say that Matthews and Marner have won Art Ross trophies already and the team is on a dynasty run with multiple cups in the bag.

 

[Viqsi]

lmao, sure.
Jones is a stud but it's not even on the same level of Matthews. Jesus.. it's not "slightly" it would be 80% over 20%

Maybe on the Leafs board.

* * *​

This is an issue with Leaf fans - I get the potential - but you'd think from what they say that Matthews and Marner have won Art Ross trophies already and the team is on a dynasty run with multiple cups in the bag.

Should we thus start acting like Jones has already been a finalist for multiple Norris Trophies?

 

[Monk]

lmao, sure.
Jones is a stud but it's not even on the same level of Matthews. Jesus.. it's not "slightly" it would be 80% over 20%

I think you're probably right. That said, I don't really think HF poll results reflect reality particularly well, so it's a moot point.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Maybe on the Leafs board.

I'm WAY more a fan of Columbus than I am of Toronto.
I actually love the players in Columbus, but what ever suits you.

Matthews is a top 5 C in the league ATM
Jones is not a top 5 D ATM. if you can prove to me that he is, then I would listen to you.

 

[Monk]

I'm WAY more a fan of Columbus than I am of Toronto.
I actually love the players in Columbus, but what ever suits you.

Matthews is a top 5 C in the league ATM
Jones is not a top 5 D ATM. if you can prove to me that he is, then I would listen to you.

Jones was 4th in Norris voting just last year, as I recall.

 

[Viqsi]

I'm WAY more a fan of Columbus than I am of Toronto.
I actually love the players in Columbus, but what ever suits you.

Matthews is a top 5 C in the league ATM
Jones is not a top 5 D ATM. if you can prove to me that he is, then I would listen to you.

2017-18 NHL Awards Voting | Hockey-Reference.com

Please see the #4 name under "James Norris Memorial Trophy".

 

[NoName]

stopped right there.

Wash and Pitts ( yes even without letang) had a WAY better D core than Toronto. Offense is not everything.... you need a good defensive D core

Stopped right there.

Pittsburgh’s blue-line in 2016 was so injured, they were down to putting in AHL plug-ins into major roles. Toronto’s defense is indeed the weakest area of the team... and they have let in the 8th fewest goals against in the NHL, and right now that top-6 is stocked with legitimate NHLers. The numbers just don’t reflect your assertion.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

2017-18 NHL Awards Voting | Hockey-Reference.com

Please see the #4 name under "James Norris Memorial Trophy".

I will be honest, after the 2 first name the rest doesn't mean much...
Hamilton before Giordano is a good one ahahahhahahahaha

 

[major major]

Matthews is a top 5 C in the league ATM
Jones is not a top 5 D ATM. if you can prove to me that he is, then I would listen to you.

You just used poll results as if they're super indicative, so you'd think the fact that Jones just finished 4th in Norris voting would matter here?

Jones is absolutely a top 5D. There is no D with any substantial offensive production (so excluding Slavin) that is on par with Jones defensively.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Stopped right there.

Pittsburgh’s blue-line in 2016 was so injured, they were down to putting in AHL plug-ins into major roles. Toronto’s defense is indeed the weakest area of the team... and they have let in the 8th fewest goals against in the NHL, and right now that top-6 is stocked with legitimate NHLers. The numbers just don’t reflect your assertion.

did you watch Dumoulin that year ? Dumoulin Defensive plays during the stanley cup finals were out of this world. NO player on Toronto can even compare to his D plays during the series or in general. He is the best D on the Pens...

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

You just used poll results as if they're super indicative, so you'd think the fact that Jones just finished 4th in Norris voting would matter here?

Jones is absolutely a top 5D. There is no D with any substantial offensive production (so excluding Slavin) that is on par with Jones defensively.

Jones is amazing, I love him, he will be a future star but comparing him to Matthews is just dumb.
Norris votes don't mean much, the winner is almost always the point leader anyway.

 

[major major]

I will be honest, after the 2 first name the rest doesn't mean much...
Hamilton before Giordano is a good one ahahahhahahahaha

I agree Giordano > > Hamilton.

I'll take it you don't think poll results are as validating as you thought they were 5 minutes ago.

 

[NoName]

Maybe on the Leafs board.

Also among NHL players as well:
NHLPA Player Poll 2017-18

 

[Viqsi]

Jones is amazing, I love him, he will be a future star but comparing him to Matthews is just dumb.
Norris votes don't mean much, the winner is almost always the point leader anyway.

...so HF polls matter but hockey expert polls don't. Gotcha.