Your Thoughts at the Halfway Mark

[PocketNines]

New Jersey forfeits its first-round pick this year, so currently that pick is going to be #31 overall.

27. CGY .415
28. NYI .407
29. EDM .352
30. BUF .333

 

[Captain Creampuff]

The Edmonton pick from the Perron trade looks to be top 5, safely. Probably 2 or 3, and possibly 1. Doesn't look too far from the perfect world scenario, where it might be something close to back to back picks.

Does anyone take a look at that and have it nudge them a little more towards giving up a pick for what could amount to a Miller rental? It does probably take it from a lean against to lean for as far as I am concerned. It would effectively have turned the Perron deal into more of a win now trade, with a long term asset added.

The Perron trade could end up being for Miller, Roy, Pajaarvi, Morrow, and Schwartz minutes.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

The Perron trade could end up being for Miller, Roy, Pajaarvi, Morrow, and Schwartz minutes.

Right, the opportunities that were opened up have proven to be well worth it. Also, while you obviously need to keep replenishing the low cost talent base to have this model work long term, I'd think making that deep playoff run that helps goose the season ticket and corporate revenue streams are equally as important.

The last few games have been great attendance wise, but there has been a clear wait and see message that was sent from the fans. I don't exactly like that, but that is what has happened, and I'd say that tips the balance a little too.

There's an opportunity to boost the revenue floor, and that's as important as stocking the system. Probably more important. If you can comfortably establish yourself as something resembling a mid market team as the caps rise, that is a value that makes you less reliant on all your #25 - 30 picks all panning out anyway.

 

[plgilbert]

Yotes fan here ! Just wanna say the Blues are really an exciting team to watch this year ; great balance scoring, really good depth on offense and defense, some players that are coming up big time this year (Schwartz, Tarasenko, Sobotka) and a good tandem in net with Halak and Elliott. I wish you the best for the next 41 games and I truly believe that the Blues has to be some serious contender for Lord Stanley this year. I'll surely keep watching their games whenever I can on Center Ice.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

With good goaltending (not even great), the Blues can win the cup if healthy.

With Halak in goal = 30% chance of winning the cup
With Elliott in goal = 50% chance of winning the cup
With Miller in goal = 75% chance of winning the cup

This Blues team is loaded and well coached

This is brilliant! I say we put Halak + Elliott in goal for an 80% chance, and keep our assets.

 

[Mike Liut]

This is brilliant! I say we put Halak + Elliott in goal for an 80% chance, and keep our assets.

If they played simultaneously, the odds drop down to 5%.

 

[BigB]

How about every time Coliaccovo comes out on the ice, we substitute him for the backup goalie and put 2 in the net. Sounds legit to me.

 

[BlueDream]

If they played simultaneously, the odds drop down to 5%.

I love that response.

 

[Kind Sir]

I'm glad that Patrick "the friendly ghost" Berglund sunk a few the last few games; although his stat line is thoroughly unremarkable, he creates shooting lanes for his line mates: his play away from the puck contributes enormously to others' play WITH the puck.

Elliott is #1A now. I'm sick of Jaro. Problem is, Elliott hasn't exactly won me over either; he's fine, just not great. Trade talk for Ryan Miller is funny...for a while. Our goaltending is fine for now, any obvious upgrade would cost too much in the Blues' much vaunted depth...did no one learn anything from the Garth Butcher fiasco? Hell, Chris freaking Osgood won two cups, who says you must have top notch goaltending to win?

Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Sobotka have emerged as versatile, and creative, players; big fun to watch.

Oshie has more highlights on t.v. than he does on his head. This is a great improvement.

Reaves, Polak, Stewart = spine

Backes, Jackman = heart

Brains? Well Army was here from the ground floor of this rehab, while Hitch made an immediate impact which has sustained a FAR higher level of play from the same core group over two years. Not bad.

Stillman and Co. are willing to take a bath for the cause:

Petrangelo, Boumeester, Shattenkirk supported by Carlo, Cole, and Leopold = consistently good transition game.

The first ten minutes of any game make me cringe...no matter who we're playing. I wish they'd fix that. This consistent lack of utter perfection is really harshing my Blue-Buzz.

Lapierre is a POS, and people should quit ragging on him because he's not agitating; that s*** only achieves the desired effect when you play the same team a few times IN A ROW--- playoffs, in other words. In the meantime, I'll just die a little inside every time I see him don the Note; he'll eventually make up for all the offensive zone penalties Perron took with him.

Roy is okay, Morrow is better than expected- but he needs to sit over the course of a season, which brings us to some spare parts:

Paajarvi, Porter, Cracknell; no complaints there (seriously, that's not a bad bench at all.) MPS is faster than the other two but needs to eat more steak...frequently.

Yep. Aced the mid-term they did.

 

[The Note]

This team is really, really, good. 7 regulation losses through 41 games? I'll take that. The offense has taken a step forward, the d has been as good, maybe better than expected, given the injuries they've sustained, and the goaltending has been good enough. The only thing that's still bothering me is the struggles in the first period. Yeah, it's fine they were able to make up for it against Columbus, but if they don't figure it out before the playoffs it's gonna kill them. But, all in all this team has been a treat to watch thus far. I just hope this team, unlike so many before them, can prove it in the postseason.

 

[SIU LAW]

I worry that Tarasenko and Schwartz will eventually hit "the wall," as they are both entering uncharted territory, i.e. a full NHL season. Schwartz did play in the AHL during the lockout, but still.

I am truly enjoying the Blues’ current success for what it is, but have been watching the Blues for more than 20 years, so I remain in the “wait and see” mode when it comes to getting excited about their potential playoff success. Their ability to overcome the California teams is my biggest concern (can our team handle a heavy forecheck and/or speed), and whether they can handle Chicago when they turn it up another gear for the playoffs.

 

[JustOneB4IDie]

This is brilliant! I say we put Halak + Elliott in goal for an 80% chance, and keep our assets.

Uh, If our goalies are Halak and Elliott going into the playoffs there is a 0% chance the Blues winning the cup.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Uh, If our goalies are Halak and Elliott going into the playoffs there is a 0% chance the Blues winning the cup.

Cory Crawford and Chris Osgood say hi.

 

[Note Worthy]

Uh, If our goalies are Halak and Elliott going into the playoffs there is a 0% chance the Blues winning the cup.

This is simply not true.

 

[illninofan*]

Cory Crawford and Chris Osgood say hi.

As a whole, Detroit and Chicago's teams were superior to ours, so they could get away with "okay" goaltending.

We can't (despite our bright spots and improvement).

 

[rumrokh]

Osgood played very well in the playoffs and was especially hot when the Red Wings won. People remember him more for the downside of his career and a lot of Blues fans remember his average performance in St. Louis, but the dude was a terrific goaltender.

 

[Deko]

Can this team outplay top tier teams in the playoffs in almost every game and thus win the Cup without excellent goaltending? Can '14 Blues be as dominating as '13 Hawks?

That is the question that determines whether Armstrong should go after Miller or not.

 

[EastonBlues22]

The best team in the league wins the Cup relatively more often than other seeds, but it's hardly an overwhelming percentage.

Since the Presidents' trophy was introduced, it's been given out 27 times. Only 8 of those teams went on to win the Cup (29.6%). The Vegas odds for the favorite are typically about 3:1 or 4:1. Put another way, even the favorite is expected to be eliminated 3-4 times more often than they are expected to win the Cup.

Put yet another way, if adding Miller hypothetically gave the Blues true Cup odds of 4:1 for the next 3 years, a quick calculation tells us the Blues are still more likely to have zero Cups entering the 2016-17 season than they are to have at least one.

Just some food for thought.

 

[BlueDream]

So we should avoid trying to assemble the best team possible?

Sorry but none of that means anything.

 

[EastonBlues22]

So we should avoid trying to assemble the best team possible?

Sorry but none of that means anything.

Of course GMs should try to assemble the best team they can (both for now and for the future).

My point is that fans constantly overestimate their team's objective chances of winning the whole thing. Many fans would like to see Armstrong go "all-in" because this is possibly the best team the Blues have ever iced.

Well, what does that mean? It's obvious that swapping out Miller for Halak improves the Blues, so if the price is reasonable the Blues should do it.

By the same token, it should also obvious that adding Miller doesn't make the Blues some sort of prohibitive favorite to win the Cup because no team is ever a prohibitive favorite to win the Cup.

Just something to keep in mind while we're talking about what the Blues should be willing to give up to get Miller, and what the expectations should be for the team if they do acquire him.

 

[Felix]

AT this point of the season no matter all the stats I still believe that we are a notch under pure Cup contenders and to be on the level of San Jose, Chicago and LA come play off time ideally we'd have to:
1. Solve goaltenfing issues;
2. Add tough nasty D-man to our blue line;
3. Add big productive Center to be atleast great 2nd libe center (ideally 1C)

I do not say that we will definitely not win the Cup with current roster and I do not pretend to know how to make the team better, but I'd feel way more comfortable if all points mentioned are reached.

 

[rumrokh]

AT this point of the season no matter all the stats I still believe that we are a notch under pure Cup contenders and to be on the level of San Jose, Chicago and LA come play off time ideally we'd have to:
1. Solve goaltenfing issues;
2. Add tough nasty D-man to our blue line;
3. Add big productive Center to be atleast great 2nd libe center (ideally 1C)

I do not say that we will definitely not win the Cup with current roster and I do not pretend to know how to make the team better, but I'd feel way more comfortable if all points mentioned are reached.

Issue #1 is one we can agree on.

Issue #2 is questionable at best. The Blues won't be better if that nasty defenseman is a poor skater or is otherwise worse at hockey than the rest of their bottom 3. Plus, nearly every championship team leans heavily on their top-4. I don't think adding a 15 minute a night guy will make a difference. So it seems like you're talking about upgrading Jackman. If the Blues could upgrade Shattenkirk's partner, that would be terrific, but I don't know who is available, especially not a tough guy who is also a good skater. For a team that has one of the few best defensive lineups in the league, that's a significant acquisition.
Possibly the only guy who is available and is worthy to play on the Blues' second pairing and is a grit upgrade is Girardi. The Blues would have to overpay severely to get guys like Gudbranson and Cowen and they wouldn't get minutes this year, anyway.

A lot of people have this dream of a crease-clearer and lament that Polak, Jackman, and Cole don't do it; but the reality is that hockey isn't played like that anymore. There are definitely times when I'd like to see the defense be more punishing, but not at the cost of overall play or penalties.

Issue #3 would be nice, just like upgrading any position would be. But it's not necessary. This might shock some people, but in the past three years, Berglund's production each year would have landed him around the 5th point-getting and 3rd goalscoring forward on the six teams who made the finals. In fact, his production would've had him outside of the top six for only New Jersey. His production this year is way down, but he's picking it back up and Sobotka has stepped up in a huge way. If Sobotka keeps it up or Berglund just plays to his average over the last few seasons, the Blues' have what Cup winners and serious contenders need from their second line.

Of course, the difference between the Blues and some of those teams is their top line. If Steen, Backes, and Oshie keep up their level of play in the playoffs, the Blues are set. There's no argument from me that there are question marks on pretty much all of the Blues' top six, sadly. Some bigger than others, obviously. But they just keep scoring and playing great two-way hockey and making those question marks smaller and smaller.
Nevertheless, I'm in favor of a move if they can swing it. I'd joyously overpay a bit in picks and/or prospects to add a guy like Dubinsky or Fisher. But, again, that's more of a luxury move than a necessary one.

 

[TheRyanExpress]

On the topic of Halak and Elliott going into the playoffs, I want to see those guys together for a full run. The last two playoffs we've made have seen Halak's season cut short due to injury. One of the best things of that duo is that if one falls off performance-wise, Hitch can insert the other guy and he typically picks up the ball and runs with it. If we could have that over a playoff run? It could play to our advantage. I'm not saying Elliott has been awful in the last two series against the Kings, but he's not been great. Had Halak been healthy, it would have been interesting to see Hitch swap them out to try to spark a win or two.

That said, on the topic of the midway point, it's the best 41 game start the Blues have ever had. I'm trying to enjoy this feeling of expecting to win every game. This doesn't happen every year. This is a special team, a deep team. Regardless of what happens in April/May/June, it's a team that should be cherished, in my opinion. As a fan, your team doesn't always slip into 'automatic' mode, and that's where the Blues are right now. They're elite. It's a special time to be a Blues fan.

 

[Inglorious Backes]

I just checked out the team stat page on NHL.com and it's pretty remarkable.

Point% - 1st
G/G - 1st (.01 ahead of Chicago)
GA/G - 3rd
5on5 F/A - 1st
PP% - 4th
PK% - 6th
SA/G - 2nd

Just a snapshot of how dominant this team has been

 

[BlueDream]

Boy it would be great to see the main board's reaction if this team finishes first in goals for.

Maybe it's time to stop talking about the Blues needing a sniper or something. Jaden Schwartz -- along with Steen, and Backes -- is becoming that impact forward we've been waiting for. Maybe Tarasenko will too.