here is another look at things.
1981 draft
Ron Francis
Dale Hawerchuk
Al MacInnis
Chris Chelios
Grant Fuhr
how many of you take Hawerchuck 1st--how many of you take him 2nd--how many of you would take him 5th?
no higher than 3rd, no lower than 4th.
here's the way i see it: ron francis captained a weaker team in a competitive conference, made the playoffs 5 times, and won a single round, before he was traded after just under ten seasons.
dale hawerchuk captained a weaker team in an even more competitive conference, made the playoffs every season, won a single round before he was traded after nine seasons.
hawerchuk: 38 games, 16 goals, 33 assists, 49 points in winnipeg. between '82 and '90, 5th in playoff PPG among all players with at least 20 games played.
rank | player | games | goals | assists | points | PPG
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 126 | 80 | 180 | 260 | 2.06
2 | Barry Pederson | 34 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 1.53
3 | Mark Messier | 136 | 73 | 117 | 190 | 1.40
4 | Jari Kurri | 137 | 87 | 103 | 190 | 1.39
5 | Dale Hawerchuk | 38 | 16 | 33 | 49 | 1.29
6 | Steve Yzerman | 32 | 16 | 25 | 41 | 1.28
7 | Denis Savard | 96 | 53 | 69 | 122 | 1.27
8 | Peter Stastny | 65 | 25 | 51 | 76 | 1.17
9 | Paul Coffey | 96 | 34 | 77 | 111 | 1.16
10 | Glenn Anderson | 137 | 70 | 88 | 158 | 1.15
11 | Mike Bossy | 78 | 50 | 40 | 90 | 1.15
in that same span, ron francis: 33 games, 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points
obviously, after 1990, francis had the far better career. but look at that list of guys from the 1981 draft: ten years later, only macinnis was still on the team that drafted him. i think if you're choosing between 18 year olds, you're drafting them for what they do early on, not later in their careers. and furthermore, we all rag on phil housley, but hawerchuk netted a bona fide all-star and elite PMD and QB. francis, plus ulf samuelsson, netted a decent and promising pieces in cullen and zalapski, but far less proven ones.
hard to say how to value fuhr, but in no universe would i have taken francis over hawerchuk, even with the benefit of knowing that francis would pile up more assists than anyone not named wayne. that's crazy.