Year 1.5 into the rebuild, smashing success so far?

[hohosaregood]

I think the trend line has been positive in terms of team building. Seems like the development staff has been decent so far. Bordeleau's basically a different player between the start and end of the year for example. Could just be him I guess.

 

[Selachimorpha]

I think Grier has done a good job so far tearing down the org to its barest bones. But “smashing success” seems wildly premature.

Maybe a little more of a literal interpretation. That is, we have completely smashed any and all success and embraced the tank.

 

[Lebanezer]

A rebuild isn't just a 1 step process, there are multiple steps to a good rebuild. So everyone basically saying well we won't know until this and this or that happens are not even reading the actual question of the thread.

We basically just finished step one, in the process of removing the dead weight that was needed to be removed Grier and company have quickly turned the prospect pool from a bottom 10 pool to a top 10 pool in the league (does that mean all of those prospects will become something of use maybe not, will any of them become anything of use? we don't know for at the least another year or more).

Step 2 is developing and drafting the next core that hopefully leads this team back into the promised land. If the lottery balls fall good in a few weeks, then we are well on our way to having a good foundation for that core in Smith and Celebrini down the middle. While adding an already NHL worthy prospect to them in Eklund and potentially good forwards like musty and bysted to follow, the forward group is as close to being completed internally (fill the rest in with veterans)

Just need to work on the defensive side with the only potential we have there is Muk, cagnoli and Thrun and none of them are really top notch prospects.

But that's not part of the phase that we just completed in my opinion on rebuilding teams. After the tear down and removing of dead weight, Grier and company did do a smashing job to get us into step 2 so quickly.

You probably should’ve said a lot of this in the OP if that’s how you wanted people to analyze the situation.

 

[Sharksfan66]

So how Grier has done up to this point will depend on how he does in the future

Well, that makes sense

Well the 23-24 tank IS complete. So nothing additional Grier needs to do in the future.

But what I'm saying is the way the lotto balls fall in 3 weeks is going to color how we view his (already completed) work over the last 12 months. At least I know it will for me.

Think of it like a poker showdown...Grier has gone "all in" on a good hand (he got us best odds at 1OA). He's shown his cards. Now all that's left to do is go around the table to see if someone else got lucky and beat us against all odds or not. Not a perfect analogy, but shows how the success of past actions can be determined by future factors that are outside of your control.

 

[Jargon]

I think the trend line has been positive in terms of team building. Seems like the development staff has been decent so far. Bordeleau's basically a different player between the start and end of the year for example. Could just be him I guess.

As bad as the AHL team is, I am kind of impressed with the growth of prospects like Bordeleau (who definitely needed a lot of teaching), Goose, Muhk, even Eklund. You can argue those are 4 very talented guys but there’s no question that each of them got significantly better during their time in the AHL. It speaks to someone in the org being good at development — maybe not McCarthy but…

 

[rekrul]

Grier took over easily the worst situation in all the NHL, the Sharks tried to keep making the playoffs and took too long to rebuild. Grier has to fix the most glaring problem with the franchise which is a awful record in talent development. From 2013 through 2020 they drafted one impact player: Timo Meier and two(!) role players with high picks: Mario Ferraro and Josh Norris and one player that made it in later rounds: Kevin Lebanc. That a paltry list and would be hard for any team to build on, is that drafting, or the development system, or some combination? I have no idea but you can't keep any GM or director of scouting on any NHL that whiffs on 1st rounders like Wieseblatt and Merkely or have years like the 2018 and 2019 with nothing drafts and expect to be competitive.

Eklund and more importantly Bordeleau can give me a bit of hope because they went through the system, I cringe when I see the stats from the Barracuda and their W/L record, even though the job of the farm team is to develop and not win- i get that- a AHL team full of AAAA players winning games is stupid but they also are not competitive with their peers. Grier has to fix that system that is trusted with the rebuild. They now have a top 5 farm system based on their current roster of drafted talent. If they can truly find a top tier talent in Musty- Like picks late 1- to mid 2nd rd this will be a team that will be ready to be playoff contenders in 2-3 years. That hope is still TBD as we have no idea if there is top line talent in Musty/ Havelid/Lund/Halttunen picks are going to reach any type of celling.

And Grier fixed the cap issue, they have ownership that is will to spend when ready and they conviced a highly sought out College FA ( Graf ) to sign when other teams were interested in. If Grier can find- and convince- a good complementary UFA (maybe offer sheet a RFA too) that they can bring in a few years to complement the core talent you can be right there again. Dallas just hit on their in 2017 draft and had some other blue chip picks develop into solid NHLers, Carolina and Vancouver as well. None of them had to finish last and get the 1OA like Colorado or Edmonton.

If this was a performance review it would be a success, but not exactly exceeding expectations. Their roster is still pretty weak and Quinn's coaching has to show some skill/system improvement. They have zero goalies and not much D. Quinn should not survive any 0-10 start next season and that was Grier's first big hire.

Still Grier has fixed the DW caused salary mess and brought in a lot of skilled talent through the draft. Now he has to build a culture of winning in the organization - that is what Detroit and Buffalo are still hoping to figure out.

 

[CaptainShark]

Jury is still out for me. Grier has done an admirable job, but I'll wait to see how the draft lottery goes before passing judgment on how things are going.

To those who would say the lottery is outside of his control, I'd say that all success in this league involves some luck. We joke all the time about how the Sharks have terrible luck (and rightfully so), but we haven't been entirely without luck (i.e., DW calling about Samsonov & finding out Jumbo was available, Nabby going from 9th round pick to all star, the 5 minute major against Vegas). Without these lucky breaks, I think we'd look back on the DW era as far less successful than we do. So it will be with Grier IMO. If we land Mack this June and make some smart signings, I'd say Grier is doing a fantastic job.

While you are spot-on when it comes to the luck-factor, basing your evaluation of Grier on that is - sorry to say - outright stupid. As you said, the lotto balls are out of his controll.

Does it influence the grade for the Sharks rebuilt? Absolutely and massively.

Does it influence the evaluation of Griers work? Absolutely no, cause - as you said - he did what he could do.

 

[Sharksfan66]

While you are spot-on when it comes to the luck-factor, basing your evaluation of Grier on that is - sorry to say - outright stupid. As you said, the lotto balls are out of his controll.

Does it influence the grade for the Sharks rebuilt? Absolutely and massively.

Does it influence the evaluation of Griers work? Absolutely no, cause - as you said - he did what he could do.

In a relational sense, I agree. It's totally unreasonable to see someone doing their best and say it's still not good enough because of factors beyond their control.

However, in a results-based work environment (like sports), I would say this is the name of the game. I'm not saying Grier should be fired if we don't land 1OA (the whole rebuild doesn't hinge on the 2024 draft), I'm saying that if I were Hasso, his performance review would look very differently if he lands 1OA this summer than it would if say he lands 2 or 3 OA.

 

[sharski]

1.5 years later

This is about the time that GMMG gives 2 weeks notice before taking a promotion as VP of Hockey Operations with Vegas for triple the salary while poaching most of his staff from the Sharks

#crushingit

 

[timorous me]

As bad as the AHL team is, I am kind of impressed with the growth of prospects like Bordeleau (who definitely needed a lot of teaching), Goose, Muhk, even Eklund. You can argue those are 4 very talented guys but there’s no question that each of them got significantly better during their time in the AHL. It speaks to someone in the org being good at development — maybe not McCarthy but…

It's a really interesting question: Are these guys good teachers/developers but bad coaches? I suppose it's possible--they could be good at working with players individually, but bad at implementing systems and getting players to work within them. (Not to mention the Cuda team this year was, overall, not very good/deep as it turned out.)

Who knows if this might actually be the case, but I agree that it seems like there are some positive things happening in terms of player development. And thank god for that.

 

[tiburon12]

Grier also hired Speers, who seems like an excellent addition to the staff in a MUCH needed department

 

[Jargon]

It's a really interesting question: Are these guys good teachers/developers but bad coaches? I suppose it's possible--they could be good at working with players individually, but bad at implementing systems and getting players to work within them. (Not to mention the Cuda team this year was, overall, not very good/deep as it turned out.)

Who knows if this might actually be the case, but I agree that it seems like there are some positive things happening in terms of player development. And thank god for that.

Yeah, it’s a question I’ve been wondering through the year. I’ve been genuinely impressed with the growth of our higher ceiling players since Grier has taken over but he’s also significantly enhanced the development team, so maybe it’s the individual work that those people are putting in? Or yeah, maybe like Quinn, McCarthy is really good at teaching but less good at coaching (unsure about the latter with Quinn).

 

[Red Light Lover]

Yeah, it’s a question I’ve been wondering through the year. I’ve been genuinely impressed with the growth of our higher ceiling players since Grier has taken over but he’s also significantly enhanced the development team, so maybe it’s the individual work that those people are putting in? Or yeah, maybe like Quinn, McCarthy is really good at teaching but less good at coaching (unsure about the latter with Quinn).

I credit Patrick Marleau as the reason so many prospects have shown improvement this year.

 

[hohosaregood]

It's a really interesting question: Are these guys good teachers/developers but bad coaches? I suppose it's possible--they could be good at working with players individually, but bad at implementing systems and getting players to work within them. (Not to mention the Cuda team this year was, overall, not very good/deep as it turned out.)

Who knows if this might actually be the case, but I agree that it seems like there are some positive things happening in terms of player development. And thank god for that.

It could be the roster too. Not saying McCarthy and co are particularly good or even average AHL system coaches. But their defense still wasn't very strong and the Sharks basically robbed them of a veteran AHL top line due to injuries.

 

[Barrie22]

You probably should’ve said a lot of this in the OP if that’s how you wanted people to analyze the situation.

Pretty heavily implied what is being asked by 1.5 years in, smashing success so far?

But not really that surprised i guess with how many fans here and in other social media places that expect instant results and get mad that we are losing. Or how many here expect every trade to go like the EA sports NHL series GM mode goes, where if you throw enough pieces at something then everyone is easy to trade for.

 

[matt trick]

I think Kane's departure was in-flight prior to Grier, but I'd never had guessed he'd have Karlsson, Burns, Kane, Meier, and Hertl out the door with a cost of $5.5M ($3.1 starting in 2025) I'd have guessed we were stuck with all but Burns and Meier.

Meier trade looks very good, if they had beaten the Canes last year it'd have been outstanding. Karlsson trade looks very good- he certainly took advantage of his Norris year (and aguably facilitated a system that allowed EK to build trade value). Wouldn't be surprised if Granlund gets flipped for another 1st too.

With a cleaner cap, I'll be curious to see how Grier uses free agency this year. Go for a few guys on overpriced one year deals with the goal of grabbing a few more picks at the deadline? Take cap dumps for assets? 1st and 2nd rounds look good, but I'd like to see further picks. Also open to signing a top 4 d-man/top 6 forward, but figure those who'd be interested in SJ would have quite a premium to join the Sharks. With that in mind, I'd probably pass on them.

I think he's also done a good job of building a much deeper talent pool. Aside from Smith, Musty, and Muk, I'm not crazy about our individuals, but Lund, Bystedt, Thrun, Havelid, Cagnoni, Hultaunen, Edstrom could all be middle 6 forwards or 4-5 d-men. We'll need that level of player in addition to top 6 forward and top pairing d-men. We should be able to add two blue chip guys at positions of need (C, D, and RW), with a couple more lotto tickets in the 2nd.

It is crazy though that if we win the lottery, Grier gets an automatic A (tear down-->franchise C), while if we fall to 2 or 3, it's kind of an incomplete until we see what comes out of the player drafted. Totally unfair, but Celebrini automatically boosts the GM who acquires him a letter grade. Hopefully it's us. Don't we deserve a #1 overall.

 

[Hodge]

This is a pretty unrealistic take. Edstrom and Bystedt are not premium assets, they're fine prospects. It's unlikely the Sharks would trade Smith, 3rd, 14th, their 2025 1st or the Vegas 1st. If the rebuild was farther along, then sure, you might move your valuable assets for players who fit into the age range of your core. That's not going to happen now. Cap flexibility is important, but more-so in 3 or 4 years than now. The idea that the prospects panning out is irrelevant is strange. Especially if you first call them premium assets. For them to have value, especially a couple years after being drafted, they need to continue improving.

I understand that you like Grier, and want to eviscerate anyone from the previous regime, but relying on hypotheticals as some sort of proof that things are going well doesn't work. Grier has to build a competitive team, and that hasn't happened yet. As I said before, this is only the beginning of the rebuild. Let's see where things are in a year, or 3.

What's unrealistic about acquiring players via trade and free agency?

Yes, you're never going to get an established young 1C that way but literally every other roster spot can be filled through those methods. NHL teams do it all the time. It's just a matter of cap space and assets, both of which we now have in spades thanks to Grier's moves since taking over. LA has been able to add Dubois, Fiala, Danault, Arvidsson and Gavrikov using assets no better than the ones I listed simply because they had those assets to spare and had plenty of cap space. Just one example.

Grier also doesn't need to trade the 14th pick or VGK 2025 1st itself. Maybe we draft Cole Eiserman with the Penguins pick and that renders Musty expendable for use as a trade chip down the line. Maybe whoever we draft with the Vegas pick is packaged along with our 2026 1st a year later for a top four defenseman. All I'm saying is the picks/prospects don't need to "pan out" in the sense of actually becoming contributing Sharks players; they just need to hold their value long enough to be used in a trade to acquire that sort of player.

No shit he needs to build a competitive team. Did you expect him to accomplish that in two years given his starting point? We're just evaluating how he has performed so far and it's clear he's been knocking it out of the park. Now comes the even harder part.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

I actually think Grier has been low-key terrific in his moves. Has done an excellent job shifting contracts, generating assets and remaining positive.

Some of the trades he got criticised for on these boards... Meier has already become Zetterlund, Mukh, Quentin Musty and a decent 2nd round pick this year. That's a huge win.
We were told we got shafted on the EK trade but that yielded Granlund and a top 15 draft pick.
The Hertl trade was good. Duclair too.
Littler deals like Kostin, Blackwood, Cooley for dimes on the dollar. Some good punts in there.

Yes, absolutely we should stay the course. There will be brighter times ahead. Soon the cap distress we've faced will be all but gone and he can start building out the team properly, with a lot of good young assets.

As you were, Mike!

 

[Chinaski89]

I mean. We can't judge but the way thigns are going, we might actually see the end of the tunnel sooner rather than later

Smith, Musty, Cagnoni, Bystedt, Eklund, Edstrom, Mukhamadulin is already a good group.
And with this year's first Celebrini is a possibility. ANd if we miss? Levshunov or Buuim instantly become our best Defense prospect with huge upside. I'm miserable a lot of the time but thinking about this makes me pretty stoked.

OH! We also got the Pens pick so that's still 13th-14th overall. Great stuff

I think Bords looked a ton better this call-up so he should stick as a 3rd line winger at least

 

[landshark]

I feel like a good development program would also be able to get value from players that were marginally skilled/viewed as such when drafted. It's not just making the best players even better, but also getting those middling players learning and growing.

I realize there's some players that will develop just because of who they are, nearly regardless of the situation. But, it's getting something out of those other players and having them reach levels that were previously thought unreachable.

I hope the Sharks work on their development system in the coming year. Grier bringing in some legit folks to help develop the players would only help ease the pain of the rebuild/tanking.

 

[STL Shark]

I think Kane's departure was in-flight prior to Grier, but I'd never had guessed he'd have Karlsson, Burns, Kane, Meier, and Hertl out the door with a cost of $5.5M ($3.1 starting in 2025) I'd have guessed we were stuck with all but Burns and Meier.

Meier trade looks very good, if they had beaten the Canes last year it'd have been outstanding. Karlsson trade looks very good- he certainly took advantage of his Norris year (and aguably facilitated a system that allowed EK to build trade value). Wouldn't be surprised if Granlund gets flipped for another 1st too.

With a cleaner cap, I'll be curious to see how Grier uses free agency this year. Go for a few guys on overpriced one year deals with the goal of grabbing a few more picks at the deadline? Take cap dumps for assets? 1st and 2nd rounds look good, but I'd like to see further picks. Also open to signing a top 4 d-man/top 6 forward, but figure those who'd be interested in SJ would have quite a premium to join the Sharks. With that in mind, I'd probably pass on them.

I think he's also done a good job of building a much deeper talent pool. Aside from Smith, Musty, and Muk, I'm not crazy about our individuals, but Lund, Bystedt, Thrun, Havelid, Cagnoni, Hultaunen, Edstrom could all be middle 6 forwards or 4-5 d-men. We'll need that level of player in addition to top 6 forward and top pairing d-men. We should be able to add two blue chip guys at positions of need (C, D, and RW), with a couple more lotto tickets in the 2nd.

It is crazy though that if we win the lottery, Grier gets an automatic A (tear down-->franchise C), while if we fall to 2 or 3, it's kind of an incomplete until we see what comes out of the player drafted. Totally unfair, but Celebrini automatically boosts the GM who acquires him a letter grade. Hopefully it's us. Don't we deserve a #1 overall.

Even with the Meier trade, we're talking about the difference between 30th overall this year and 42nd overall. Had NJD just been good, but not good enough and had their 2nd rounder in the mid to late 50's, then that's a different deal. But the difference between 30th and 42nd is likely to be very negligible which worked out nicely for us. 4 picks in the top 42 plus 3 more likely in the top 40 next year while coming off 4 last year and 3 (top 45) in 2022 is a heck of a way to start to rebuild the prospect pool and allow you to have guys coming in waves in the future (in addition to just giving you more lotto balls in a big game of chance).

I am curious about how he addresses the defense primarily. It's a spot that takes a long time to address purely via the draft/prospect ranks, but is also expensive to address in other ways (trade/free agency). I think it's easy enough to fill out a forward group with the draft and UFA, but the defense is going to be a bigger hurdle (and likely more important hurdle) to overcome. Will never be able to address it all in a single offseason, so like to see him chip away with a piece this summer and then see if you can get another in 2025-26.

I think Thrun-Emberson could be a very good third pairing on an actual playoff team in a year or two and Muk has very good 2nd pairing potential (or maybe even a #2 on a top pairing). Add a second pairing type RHD this offseason to play with Muk (unlikely to find a legit top pair guy) and then see what becomes available over the next 12 months that might allow you to add someone to round out the top of the group (or if someone internally just overperforms and recalibrates the caliber needed).

 

[Lebanezer]

What's unrealistic about acquiring players via trade and free agency?

Yes, you're never going to get an established young 1C that way but literally every other roster spot can be filled through those methods. NHL teams do it all the time. It's just a matter of cap space and assets, both of which we now have in spades thanks to Grier's moves since taking over. LA has been able to add Dubois, Fiala, Danault, Arvidsson and Gavrikov using assets no better than the ones I listed simply because they had those assets to spare and had plenty of cap space. Just one example.

Grier also doesn't need to trade the 14th pick or VGK 2025 1st itself. Maybe we draft Cole Eiserman with the Penguins pick and that renders Musty expendable for use as a trade chip down the line. Maybe whoever we draft with the Vegas pick is packaged along with our 2026 1st a year later for a top four defenseman. All I'm saying is the picks/prospects don't need to "pan out" in the sense of actually becoming contributing Sharks players; they just need to hold their value long enough to be used in a trade to acquire that sort of player.

No shit he needs to build a competitive team. Did you expect him to accomplish that in two years given his starting point? We're just evaluating how he has performed so far and it's clear he's been knocking it out of the park. Now comes the even harder part.

Those are all hypothetical scenarios in relation to the Sharks, which until they happen, don't mean anything.

I did not expect him to build a competitive team in 2 years, nor did I say that.

How he has performed so far does not matter without the context created by what he does with acquired assets and the development of the players acquired with those assets.

Tearing down the team was never going to be as important and building it back up. Taking the stance that we need to wait and see what he does in that regard before we judge him is not unreasonable.

Pretty heavily implied what is being asked by 1.5 years in, smashing success so far?

But not really that surprised i guess with how many fans here and in other social media places that expect instant results and get mad that we are losing. Or how many here expect every trade to go like the EA sports NHL series GM mode goes, where if you throw enough pieces at something then everyone is easy to trade for.

People are saying 1.5 years in is not enough time to judge the rebuild. You think that people saying we need more time to judge the rebuild means they want instant results? If you wanted people to talk about the teardown specifically you should have asked about that portion.

 

[themelkman]

Agreed. You look at guys like Sam Reinhart and Wyatt Johnson, one was acquired for a first and one was a late first. Team can very easily leverage Vegas' first rounder for someone young already in the NHL who's unhappy.

Yeah the key is you have to be very smart and have a great team to indentify those players at the right time. That means instead of wasting picks on guys that are useless, you spend when you get those amazing opportunities

 

[Hobocop]

It's a really interesting question: Are these guys good teachers/developers but bad coaches? I suppose it's possible--they could be good at working with players individually, but bad at implementing systems and getting players to work within them. (Not to mention the Cuda team this year was, overall, not very good/deep as it turned out.)

Who knows if this might actually be the case, but I agree that it seems like there are some positive things happening in terms of player development. And thank god for that.

That's the impression I get. Another example is Romanov. Puck handling was awful at the start of the year. There was a period in January where it looked like he was toast, he couldn't stop anything. Now he's about to start his first NHL game because he's been a brick wall for the Cuda for the past couple weeks. The coaching staff is not finding us any success on the ice, but the growth of some of our players is noticeable. We upgraded our defense/goaltending and still gave up the most goals in the AHL this season.

I'm pretty happy Bordeleau is working out in the NHL for the most part. I've been touting his improvements in the defensive zone, but I didn't think he was all that much better on offense. Hope he sticks.

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah the key is you have to be very smart and have a great team to indentify those players at the right time. That means instead of wasting picks on guys that are useless, you spend when you get those amazing opportunities

That's what separates the good GMs from the great ones. The good ones can wipe the slate clean by handing out long retentions for minimal return, but the great ones can find the perfect balance between solid cap management and finding bargains that fit the timeline. What Florida has done, well, before we mocked them for dumping all their draft picks until 2035, but look at them now.