Year 1.5 into the rebuild, smashing success so far?

[Herschel]

We have not even had a single one of his draft picks play in the NHL yet, and considering the draft is the most important factor for whether this rebuild is going to be a smashing success or not, I fail to see why it would be deemed as such already.

This more so a flaw of when the question is being asked.

2022 Draft - only two players taken 11th or later that have played more than 20 games in the NHL and only one of them was drafted after Bystedt.

2023 Draft - after the top 3 picks, the remaining drafted players have played a combined 73 NHL games and 71 of those are by Benson.

At this point, evaluating the drafts has to be done primarily by how those pick look outside of the NHL or by the volume/quality of acquired picks.

For me, what I like why I voted Yes is based on the approach. He is doing all of the staple things associated with an effective teardown while adding a number of older prospects (22-24 years of age). If he can find 2-3 players that fit into either the middle six or top four they are going to move the needle in 3-4 seasons when they are in their physical prime and the blue-chip prospects are starting to have an impact.

 

[Boy Hedican]

We should probably wait until some of these prospects pan out before patting ourselves on the back.

For sure. But there’s milestones along the way and those deserve some recognition, imo.

 

[SjMilhouse]

We should probably wait until some of these prospects pan out before patting ourselves on the back.

For real, have we learned nothing in the last 10+ years? Outside of getting someone like Celebrini, anything can happen

 

[Tkachuk4MVP]

So far so good. Hitting on these very high picks (which the Sharks have historically not done) will be the real test though.

 

[Juxtaposer]

For sure. But there’s milestones along the way and those deserve some recognition, imo.

I think Grier has done a good job so far tearing down the org to its barest bones. But “smashing success” seems wildly premature.

 

[SjMilhouse]

thinking about this more....this feels like a cursed jinx thread.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

I’m very critical yes. I’m willing to call a good move when I see it, but nothing he has done has blown my socks off yet.

I’ve actually warmed up on him a lot and I think he’s more competent than I thought he would be, but I don’t see anything that sets him apart from any other just okay gms. I just don’t see him being the guy who can create a winning team out of this mess.

I mean I’ve been pretty vocal on not being a fan of almost all of his moves, but I can admit he’s been atleast ok overall too.
realistically this is only his 2nd full draft and if the sharks finally land the franchises first 1st overall, I think we will get a better idea of what direction he plans on taking the team after the draft because right now it’s rudderless ship.

He does seem to be a good GM putting the right guys in the right places management WISE iE Speer and Miller it’s just the UFA signings and trades that need work

 

[TheBeard]

I want to add that GMMG did all that contract trading on contracts with a 3-team NTC. They all more or less told him where they wanted to go and he was able to make it happen. Getting those contracts to teams that were trying to be competitive and not just someone trying to hit the cap floor is even more amazing when you think about it. Plus you look at the deal he made with NJD at the deadline and it's clear he is building relationships and goodwill that will pay off down the line. He isn't trying to "win" at the other teams expense.

NTCs don't mean that much if you're a team like the Sharks in a clear longterm rebuild. Players in the later stages of their career suddenly become a lot more open to moving to teams no on their lists.

ealistically this is only his 2nd full draft and if the sharks finally land the franchises first 1st overall, I think we will get a better idea of what direction he plans on taking the team after the draft because right now it’s rudderless ship.

While true, finishing first by icing the worst possible team he could shouldn't necessarily be a bragging point in Grier's resume.

 

[Lebanezer]

thinking about this more....this feels like a cursed jinx thread.

I appreciate the optimism for the team going forward, but we're not even in the middle of the rebuild yet. This is still the beginning. If the Sharks don't get Celebrini, not sure who they take at #2/3, but outside of Smith, and possible Musty, they're extremely low on high end to elite level talent in the prospect pool. The defensive prospects in particular are not there yet. A lot more needs to happen for this rebuild to be a success.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

thinking about this more....this feels like a cursed jinx t

We should probably wait until some of these prospects pan out before patting ourselves on the back.

agreed it’s a low percentage play to think that all of your prospects are going to pan out.

 

[Hodge]

I appreciate the optimism for the team going forward, but we're not even in the middle of the rebuild yet. This is still the beginning. If the Sharks don't get Celebrini, not sure who they take at #2/3, but outside of Smith, and possible Musty, they're extremely low on high end to elite level talent in the prospect pool. The defensive prospects in particular are not there yet. A lot more needs to happen for this rebuild to be a success.

The draft is not the only way to build a roster. Grier has set us up with maximum cap flexibility and a treasure trove of premium assets (2024 3rd OA, 2024 14th OA, 2025 VGK 1st, Smith, Musty, Shak, Bystedt, Edstrom) which can be leveraged to acquire basically any player who becomes available on the trade market.

Whether the prospects pan out (at least outside of our 2024 1st and Smith) is largely irrelevant. What matters is how he uses these assets he's accumulated.

 

[Bowie22]

 

[TheBeard]

The draft is not the only way to build a roster. Grier has set us up with maximum cap flexibility and a treasure trove of premium assets (2024 3rd OA, 2024 14th OA, 2025 VGK 1st, Smith, Musty, Shak, Bystedt, Edstrom) which can be leveraged to acquire basically any player who becomes available on the trade market.

Whether the prospects pan out (at least outside of our 2024 1st and Smith) is largely irrelevant. What matters is how he uses these assets he's accumulated.

Agreed. You look at guys like Sam Reinhart and Wyatt Johnson, one was acquired for a first and one was a late first. Team can very easily leverage Vegas' first rounder for someone young already in the NHL who's unhappy.

 

[landshark]

thinking about this more....this feels like a cursed jinx thread.

Cursed jinx is like a double negative tho.

 

[timorous me]

NTCs don't mean that much if you're a team like the Sharks in a clear longterm rebuild. Players in the later stages of their career suddenly become a lot more open to moving to teams no on their lists.


While true, finishing first by icing the worst possible team he could shouldn't necessarily be a bragging point in Grier's resume.

Indeed. But I think the NTCs create problems--added difficulties, let's say--in terms of the players being able to be a bit pickier about their options, which means the GM then has less leverage (and thus might have a hard time getting the value they'd want).

 

[TheBeard]

Indeed. But I think the NTCs create problems--added difficulties, let's say--in terms of the players being able to be a bit pickier about their options, which means the GM then has less leverage (and thus might have a hard time getting the value they'd want).

While true, I think if you have the choice of being on a team clearly hellbent on being awful in the short term and going to any of the 20 teams that aren't, you're probably a little more lenient with your terms. a 3 team NTC, for example, probably gets expanded to 12 or 15 for Hertl.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

In honor of our future Vezna, and Stanley cup winning goaltender, Georgi Romanov, I’ve updated my avatar. I feel like this guy might be Nabby 2.0!

 

[Red Light Lover]

While true, I think if you have the choice of being on a team clearly hellbent on being awful in the short term and going to any of the 20 teams that aren't, you're probably a little more lenient with your terms. a 3 team NTC, for example, probably gets expanded to 12 or 15 for Hertl.

Agreed, I'd add DW once said the purpose of NTC/NMC was to keep the player in the conversation about being traded/their future, not to prevent trades at all from happening. That if it was the right deal for all sides, it would get done.

 

[Boy Hedican]

I think Grier has done a good job so far tearing down the org to its barest bones. But “smashing success” seems wildly premature.

Who said “smashing success”?

 

[Lebanezer]

The draft is not the only way to build a roster. Grier has set us up with maximum cap flexibility and a treasure trove of premium assets (2024 3rd OA, 2024 14th OA, 2025 VGK 1st, Smith, Musty, Shak, Bystedt, Edstrom) which can be leveraged to acquire basically any player who becomes available on the trade market.

Whether the prospects pan out (at least outside of our 2024 1st and Smith) is largely irrelevant. What matters is how he uses these assets he's accumulated.

This is a pretty unrealistic take. Edstrom and Bystedt are not premium assets, they're fine prospects. It's unlikely the Sharks would trade Smith, 3rd, 14th, their 2025 1st or the Vegas 1st. If the rebuild was farther along, then sure, you might move your valuable assets for players who fit into the age range of your core. That's not going to happen now. Cap flexibility is important, but more-so in 3 or 4 years than now. The idea that the prospects panning out is irrelevant is strange. Especially if you first call them premium assets. For them to have value, especially a couple years after being drafted, they need to continue improving.

I understand that you like Grier, and want to eviscerate anyone from the previous regime, but relying on hypotheticals as some sort of proof that things are going well doesn't work. Grier has to build a competitive team, and that hasn't happened yet. As I said before, this is only the beginning of the rebuild. Let's see where things are in a year, or 3.

 

[Lebanezer]

Who said “smashing success”?

It's in the thread title.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Who said “smashing success”?

Literally the title of the thread.

 

[Boy Hedican]

Literally the title of the thread.

lol my b.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Jury is still out for me. Grier has done an admirable job, but I'll wait to see how the draft lottery goes before passing judgment on how things are going.

To those who would say the lottery is outside of his control, I'd say that all success in this league involves some luck. We joke all the time about how the Sharks have terrible luck (and rightfully so), but we haven't been entirely without luck (i.e., DW calling about Samsonov & finding out Jumbo was available, Nabby going from 9th round pick to all star, the 5 minute major against Vegas). Without these lucky breaks, I think we'd look back on the DW era as far less successful than we do. So it will be with Grier IMO. If we land Mack this June and make some smart signings, I'd say Grier is doing a fantastic job.

So how Grier has done up to this point will depend on how he does in the future

Well, that makes sense

 

[Barrie22]

A rebuild isn't just a 1 step process, there are multiple steps to a good rebuild. So everyone basically saying well we won't know until this and this or that happens are not even reading the actual question of the thread.

We basically just finished step one, in the process of removing the dead weight that was needed to be removed Grier and company have quickly turned the prospect pool from a bottom 10 pool to a top 10 pool in the league (does that mean all of those prospects will become something of use maybe not, will any of them become anything of use? we don't know for at the least another year or more).

Step 2 is developing and drafting the next core that hopefully leads this team back into the promised land. If the lottery balls fall good in a few weeks, then we are well on our way to having a good foundation for that core in Smith and Celebrini down the middle. While adding an already NHL worthy prospect to them in Eklund and potentially good forwards like musty and bysted to follow, the forward group is as close to being completed internally (fill the rest in with veterans)

Just need to work on the defensive side with the only potential we have there is Muk, cagnoli and Thrun and none of them are really top notch prospects.

But that's not part of the phase that we just completed in my opinion on rebuilding teams. After the tear down and removing of dead weight, Grier and company did do a smashing job to get us into step 2 so quickly.