Proposal: [WPG-EDM] Ehlers for RNH

[drhockey4321]

I didn't comment on Ehlers. RNH's scoring rate at evens and 5v5 is almost the same with or without McDavid. RNH finally got to play on the #1 PP unit this year and that is why he scored more not because McDavid. Nuge has had seasons with 20+PP points in the past when on the #1PP unit, he's a good PP player when he actually has non-3rd liners out there with him.

Either way we aren't trading Nuge for a winger because its not worth breaking up one of the highest scoring duos in the NHL on our first line.

dont let jets fans lie to you

in 2018-19

Ehlers played 65.1 percent of his shifts with either Laine or Scheifele. and 62 percent of his production came with Laine or Scheifele. so all we really know is that his producton suffers by close to 1/3 when he isnt playing with Laine or Scheifele.

the facts are there they just dont want to admit them

and just to reinforce the point

in 2017

Ehlers played 66.2 percent of his shifts with either Laine or Scheifele. and 71.2 percent of his production came with Laine or Scheifele.

so the trend was even more pronounced

this indicates that without either Laine or Scheifele, hes clearly not the same player

 

[Canucks1096]

I didn't comment on Ehlers. RNH's scoring rate at evens and 5v5 is almost the same with or without McDavid. RNH finally got to play on the #1 PP unit this year and that is why he scored more not because McDavid. Nuge has had seasons with 20+PP points in the past when on the #1PP unit, he's a good PP player when he actually has non-3rd liners out there with him.

Either way we aren't trading Nuge for a winger because its not worth breaking up one of the highest scoring duos in the NHL on our first line.

I am too lazy to check. Can you show me the exact esp total/p per 60 with and without Mcdavid?

So if Oilers didn't have the best player in the nhl. RNH will still get about 69 points? Mcdavid has no impact at all on his point total?

 

[Canucks1096]

dont let jets fans lie to you

in 2018-19

Ehlers played 65.1 percent of his shifts with either Laine or Scheifele. and 62 percent of his production came with Laine or Scheifele. so all we really know is that his producton suffers by close to 1/3 when he isnt playing with Laine or Scheifele.

the facts are there they just dont want to admit them

and just to reinforce the point

in 2017

Ehlers played 66.2 percent of his shifts with either Laine or Scheifele. and 71.2 percent of his production came with Laine or Scheifele.

so the trend was even more pronounced

this indicates that without either Laine or Scheifele, hes clearly not the same player

2017 Ehlers had 60 points, 47 of those were esp. 71% production of that is ab out 33 points

Ehlers had 33 points with Laine or/and Scheifele and that is with 66.2 shifts

The other 14 points is with the remaining 33.8 shifts.

How is Ehlers clearly not the same player with Laine/Scheifele. It's
Only about 5 points off. If Ehlers takes another 33% shifts without Laine/Scheifele. That is prorated to 28 points.

 

[Fourier]

I am too lazy to check. Can you show me the exact esp total/p per 60 with and without Mcdavid?

So if Oilers didn't have the best player in the nhl. RNH will still get about 69 points? Mcdavid has no impact at all on his point total?

Of course McDavid has an impact. It's just far less than most claim. And it is also true that every player in the NHL is influenced by the players around him, not just a few superstars. The problem is that that influence is quite complicated, requires context, and may not be what one thinks. Moreover, "away from McDavid" in this case means playing with guys who are generally not seen to be top six players and often means your defenseman is Kris Russell.

Playing with a guy who has the puck all the time can actually have a negative impact on a player's production. This was the case with Nuge and Hall. Hall's game centers around him having the puck so when Nuge played with Hall he took on a complementary role with a focus on defense. To a degree he does the same with McDavid. Running his own line Nuge tends to be the guy with the puck. This explains why his assist totals would rise away from Hall despite the fact that Hall was the team's top offensive player.

 

[Whileee]

It’s only stupid if it doesn’t work. Lots of Raptors fans hated the Leonard deal.

But sure - dumb for the Jets to make that deal, extra dumb for Edmonton to make an RNH deal for lesser pieces.

This isn't the NBA where two or three players can drive a championship team.

...and RNH isn't close to Leonard in terms of impact relative to others in the league.

 

[drhockey4321]

2017 Ehlers had 60 points, 47 of those were esp. 71% production of that is ab out 33 points

Ehlers had 33 points with Laine or/and Scheifele and that is with 66.2 shifts

The other 14 points is with the remaining 33.8 shifts.

How is Ehlers clearly not the same player with Laine/Scheifele. It's
Only about 5 points off. If Ehlers takes another 33% shifts without Laine/Scheifele. That is prorated to 28 points.

Check you math
71% of 60 is 43 points and that was done in 2/3rd of his Ice time. So 100 percent would be roughly 65 points.(assuming all his I've time was with Scheiffele and or Laine)

now do it without. 29% of 60 is 17 and that was done in 1/3rd of his Ice time and 17 x 3 Is 51. So it's a 14 point drop. 65-51=14 (for ease of presentation in considering all his points and ice time even strength)

14 points out of 51 (remember we are saying without Kaine or Scheiffele) is 28% of his production which is considerable. It's the difference between being a 60 point guy or being a 43/44 point guy.

Which is my entire point

 

[Whileee]

In terms of shot metrics, it's pretty clear that RNH was a negative with just about everyone he played with last year.

In contrast, almost every player had better shot metrics playing with Ehlers than without.

Evolving Hockey's RAPM models (adjusting for context, teammates, opponents, etc.) gives the same basic story with regard to shot metrics (Corsi and expected goals):

 

[Whileee]

Another methodology to compare the performance of Ehlers and RNH.

Here are the totals for "goals above replacement" (GAR) for the past three seasons, from Evolving Hockey.

 

[AvatarAang]

So mcdavid has two centerman as his wingers?

Which is exactly why the Oilers struggle to make the playoffs. There is zero reason why Drai and RNH should be playing with McDavid at even strength. You do not load up your top line if you expect to win in the playoffs. It's great during the regular season if you want to jack up your point totals but even then it's no guarantee you'll even make the playoffs.

McDavid should be playing with cheap bums that have chemistry with him. Get him a Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz type etc and put the better wingers with Drai and RNH on the other two lines.

The problem is the Oilers made so many bad trades, can't develop prospects and screwed up their crap so now they have no good wingers to play with their centers. If Drai and RNH actually played C full time their contracts would not look as great as it does now with McDavid padding their stats.

They need to trade RNH this offseason while his value is somewhat higher. I mean if Oiler fans are convinced he's a 70pt center then maybe there's a GM out there dumb enough to believe that as well. Although perhaps he does improve on a team outside of Edmonton and hits 70pts playing C since we have seen many cases of players doing better once they leave the organization.

 

[BatVader]

The original post stated...
“Who adds and how much if anyone does?”
Yet all the posters here do is bitch, complain, and insult.
Lol... never change HF.

Mods can close this

 

[Canucks1096]

Check you math
71% of 60 is 43 points and that was done in 2/3rd of his Ice time. So 100 percent would be roughly 65 points.(assuming all his I've time was with Scheiffele and or Laine)

now do it without. 29% of 60 is 17 and that was done in 1/3rd of his Ice time and 17 x 3 Is 51. So it's a 14 point drop. 65-51=14 (for ease of presentation in considering all his points and ice time even strength)

14 points out of 51 (remember we are saying without Kaine or Scheiffele) is 28% of his production which is considerable. It's the difference between being a 60 point guy or being a 43/44 point guy.

Which is my entire point

I only calculated the even strength points, 71% of 47 points is about 33 points. The remaining 29% of his 14 points was without Laine/Scheifele.

So 66.2% shift = 33 points. 1/3 of that about 49 points.

So 33.8 shift = 14 points. 1/3 of that is 42 points.

A 7 point difference. It's not a huge difference.

I don't quite understand why you are taking the difference of the prorated number with and without Laine/Scheifele and using that as your argument. ( 14 points of 29% = 43/44 point player) your prorated math shows he would of been 51 point without Ehlers/Laine. That should be your argument. Giving the difference doesn't make Ehlers a 43/44 point player.

 

[Canucks1096]

Which is exactly why the Oilers struggle to make the playoffs. There is zero reason why Drai and RNH should be playing with McDavid at even strength. You do not load up your top line if you expect to win in the playoffs. It's great during the regular season if you want to jack up your point totals but even then it's no guarantee you'll even make the playoffs.

McDavid should be playing with cheap bums that have chemistry with him. Get him a Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz type etc and put the better wingers with Drai and RNH on the other two lines.

The problem is the Oilers made so many bad trades, can't develop prospects and screwed up their crap so now they have no good wingers to play with their centers. If Drai and RNH actually played C full time their contracts would not look as great as it does now with McDavid padding their stats.

They need to trade RNH this offseason while his value is somewhat higher. I mean if Oiler fans are convinced he's a 70pt center then maybe there's a GM out there dumb enough to believe that as well. Although perhaps he does improve on a team outside of Edmonton and hits 70pts playing C since we have seen many cases of players doing better once they leave the organization.

When RNH become an ufa. A team will give him 9 plus million. You can't have 3 players on the roster making 30 million combined. Cap world it is very hard to have a competitive roster. Thats why Hawks need it to trade Panarin.

Ehlers has the better contract and Jets need a second center. This deals works for both teams.

 

[McFlyingV]

I am too lazy to check. Can you show me the exact esp total/p per 60 with and without Mcdavid?

So if Oilers didn't have the best player in the nhl. RNH will still get about 69 points? Mcdavid has no impact at all on his point total?

Fourier posted the numbers earlier in this thread I believe. Don't feel like going back and compiling the numbers as there is no site that does all the math for you. I can tell you that there is no major difference in Nuge's 5v5 and EV production /60 last season with or without McDavid though. Sure, Nuge benefits from playing with guys like McDavid and Drai on the PP, like he had with Eberle and Hall in the past, but most players in the league who play on a top PP unit receive the same benefit. What Nuge doesn't receive is good offensive support from his Dmen or his wingers. In fact, I doubt you could find a top 6 centre in the league who receives less offensive support from his D and wingers. Nuge has to be in the bottom 5 for quality of linemate of any centre playing in the top 6 in the NHL.

 

[McFlyingV]

Which is exactly why the Oilers struggle to make the playoffs. There is zero reason why Drai and RNH should be playing with McDavid at even strength. You do not load up your top line if you expect to win in the playoffs. It's great during the regular season if you want to jack up your point totals but even then it's no guarantee you'll even make the playoffs.

McDavid should be playing with cheap bums that have chemistry with him. Get him a Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz type etc and put the better wingers with Drai and RNH on the other two lines.

The problem is the Oilers made so many bad trades, can't develop prospects and screwed up their crap so now they have no good wingers to play with their centers. If Drai and RNH actually played C full time their contracts would not look as great as it does now with McDavid padding their stats.

They need to trade RNH this offseason while his value is somewhat higher. I mean if Oiler fans are convinced he's a 70pt center then maybe there's a GM out there dumb enough to believe that as well. Although perhaps he does improve on a team outside of Edmonton and hits 70pts playing C since we have seen many cases of players doing better once they leave the organization.

Your claims have already been disproven in this very thread and yet you continue to spew it. RNH played 70% of the time centring his own line, and only on the most rare of occasions were Nuge-McDavid-Drai used as a line. That trio only played 35:10 over the entire season together at 5v5.

 

[drhockey4321]

Your claims have already been disproven in this very thread and yet you continue to spew it. RNH played 70% of the time centring his own line, and only on the most rare of occasions were Nuge-McDavid-Drai used as a line. That trio only played 35:10 over the entire season together at 5v5.

you are 100% correct

here are the percentages of when Nugent hopkins played with McDavid at even strength

5.39% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - RATTIE,TY
4.91% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - YAMAMOTO,KAILER
4.45% EV KASSIAN,ZACK - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
2.98% EV CAGGIULA,DRAKE - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
2.59% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
1.90% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - PULJUJARVI,JESSE
0.49% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
0.36% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
0.28% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - KASSIAN,ZACK - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
0.24% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - RIEDER,TOBIAS

i dont get why they insist on lying the data is easy to check

 

[McFlyingV]

you are 100% correct

here are the percentages of when Nugent hopkins played with McDavid at even strength

5.39% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - RATTIE,TY
4.91% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - YAMAMOTO,KAILER
4.45% EV KASSIAN,ZACK - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
2.98% EV CAGGIULA,DRAKE - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
2.59% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
1.90% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - PULJUJARVI,JESSE
0.49% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
0.36% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
0.28% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - KASSIAN,ZACK - MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
0.24% EV MCDAVID,CONNOR - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - RIEDER,TOBIAS

i dont get why they insist on lying the data is easy to check

It's very strange. I guess the "McDavid carries 50 goal 105 point Draisaitl" crowd has moved on to a new victim.

 

[drhockey4321]

It's very strange. I guess the "McDavid carries 50 goal 105 point Draisaitl" crowd has moved on to a new victim.

I dont see it that way, to me its pure laziness. I mean ok in my career i worked with statistical data everyday for 27 year so im used to it. but stuff like this isnt hard, its basic stuff the average 3rd grader can do,. so that just tells me they are Lazy

 

[TS Quint]

Lol so you looked and didn’t like what you saw then? “Let’s keep this on topic” and “what does this have to do with our player” is the classic refrain of someone that wants to slag our player all they want but don’t you dare cast OUR boy in a negative light.

I bring up Laine because values can change in a hurry. It wasn’t too long ago Oiler fans were being laughed at for suggesting Draisaitl-Laine swaps. Like it or not, Ehlers value has taken a hit. If it’s not a fit then that’s fine but there’s some monstrously awful underrating of RNH going on here, along with the classic “but McDavid” stupidity. Do none of Kyle Connor’s points count then? He had TWO really good linemates for most of the year!

Ehlers helps us a lot less today than RNH does, and we’re not trading a 69 point forward for a 37 point one that’s not capable of playing the more important position. Twist it around all you like a we had a poster for quite a long time that could post a chart or a graph or an advanced stat that could make Martin Marincin look better than Drew Doughty - and if it’s a no all around then it’s a no all around, but the fact of the matter is, production matters.

Trading RNH for Ehlers would mean the end of McDavid and Drai being able to play together and doesn’t make us any deeper. It would be foolish of us to commit that much long term cap to a winger coming off a poor season by his standards.

Keeping on topic means just that.

deflection and whataboutism is the classic "I'm severely over rating my player and I don't want to talk about reality".

Your posts say enough for me. I just asked a simple question and all you could do is make a weak excuse and deflect and try to change the topic.

That being said I'm more than happy to hear from someone who can intelligently discuss RNH's positive virtues. So far I'm far from convinced he is in the same league as Ehlers.

 

[TS Quint]

They mean:
a) Skaters were better without RNH than they were with him.
b) RNH was good with McD
c) Most skaters were better without RNH than RNH was without said skater.

Unless someone can show something that opposes this it's seems like the case is closed. Not a chance I would consider this trade.

 

[TS Quint]

even if you argue RNH is helped by McDavid, the facts show tat Ehlers is more dependent on both Laine and Scheifelle than RNH is on McDavid

Show me those facts.