Would you be willing to endure 2 - 1/2 years of...

[Hen Kolland]

We have officially hit the point where our current point% extrapolated over the full 82 game season yields less points than the 30th ranked LA Kings have already reached in 54 games.

Surely this is grounds to change the lottery format effective immediately.

No, I would not willing choose to endure this for another 2 years, but I'm not sure I will have that choice. I am mentally preparing for the Wings to never compete on any level ever again. This is going to be a Houston Astros level turn around (without the cheating), or a Chicago Cubs level collapse into a meaningless existence.

 

[Frk It]

How much cap space are we looking to have this summer?

 

[Ishad]

Willing to endure? Brace yourself because the wings are going to suck for the next 2.5 years regardless of where they are picking.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

We have officially hit the point where our current point% extrapolated over the full 82 game season yields less points than the 30th ranked LA Kings have already reached in 54 games.

Surely this is grounds to change the lottery format effective immediately.

No, I would not willing choose to endure this for another 2 years, but I'm not sure I will have that choice. I am mentally preparing for the Wings to never compete on any level ever again. This is going to be a Houston Astros level turn around (without the cheating), or a Chicago Cubs level collapse into a meaningless existence.

Is two years really that long though? There are plenty of organizations that needed to rebuild their rebuilds.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Is two years really that long though? There are plenty of organizations that needed to rebuild their rebuilds.

This is not acceptable for 3 years. "This" being what we are seeing this year.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

This is not acceptable for 3 years. "This" being what we are seeing this year.

With reasonable health and reasonably decent goaltending we won't see "this" again. We will, however, be very bad for several more years. There are no white knights coming to save this team.

 

[vladdy16]

No.

I have zero respect for tanking as a long term strategy.

If we go through another year of country club vets, a deadbeat coach, yo yo'd prospects and an embarassing lack of depth and injury foresight?

That will be all I need to see to wish the Amway Red Wings well, and go find teams/sports where competitive spirit is priortized over business interests and long shots at an overrated trophy.

 

[2xJack]

I expect this team to be a bottom5 team again next year, there are just too many issues to be fixed, but there's no real reason to be historically bad.

Just being curious, what teams can you envision the Wings jumping ahead of next season?

I think we're a lock to finish bottom 3, and and see very little chance we'll finish anywhere but dead last again. This team is absolutely terrible. Goaltending and defense in particular are going to keep us at the bottom again. Do I think we'll be historically bad next season? More than likely, yes. Look at GR. There is no wave of talent coming. Maybe we'll add a player or two who are in the minors, but that will make a negligible difference. If we sign any free agents it will be more Nemeth and Filppula quality players. Yzerman is not going to be swinging for the fences and throwing big money at UFA's with our horrible roster. He's going to be looking for bargains and potential breakout candidates. Not enough problem players are coming off the books this summer, either.

We have 12 wins, but 3 of those came in the first 4 games. Since game 5 we are 9-37-4. We are not going to get 20 wins. Since game 5 we're on a 14 win season pace.

I do not see a situation similar to Colorado in 2016-17, where we will have a 90+ point season next year. We have no MacKinnon and no similar depth. We're going to be at the bottom of the standings for a while. At least a couple more seasons. The better our luck in the lottery, the shorter that time frame may be.

We don't have to embrace the futility, but I think the sooner we accept that we're going to have a multi-season stint at the bottom the better off the fanbase will be. There is no sense in getting angry or setting unrealistic expectations. Think Edmonton or Buffalo, but when they were still in decline about a decade ago. Even after so long, neither franchise is that good... although I'd much rather trade places with Edmonton since they at least have Cup caliber core. There was a lot of pain for them to get to that point. We have to go through all that still.

 

[Winger98]

Just being curious, what teams can you envision the Wings jumping ahead of next season?

I think we're a lock to finish bottom 3, and and see very little chance we'll finish anywhere but dead last again. This team is absolutely terrible. Goaltending and defense in particular are going to keep us at the bottom again. Do I think we'll be historically bad next season? More than likely, yes. Look at GR. There is no wave of talent coming. Maybe we'll add a player or two who are in the minors, but that will make a negligible difference. If we sign any free agents it will be more Nemeth and Filppula quality players. Yzerman is not going to be swinging for the fences and throwing big money at UFA's with our horrible roster. He's going to be looking for bargains and potential breakout candidates. Not enough problem players are coming off the books this summer, either.

We have 12 wins, but 3 of those came in the first 4 games. Since game 5 we are 9-37-4. We are not going to get 20 wins. Since game 5 we're on a 14 win season pace.

I do not see a situation similar to Colorado in 2016-17, where we will have a 90+ point season next year. We have no MacKinnon and no similar depth. We're going to be at the bottom of the standings for a while. At least a couple more seasons. The better our luck in the lottery, the shorter that time frame may be.

We don't have to embrace the futility, but I think the sooner we accept that we're going to have a multi-season stint at the bottom the better off the fanbase will be. There is no sense in getting angry or setting unrealistic expectations. Think Edmonton or Buffalo, but when they were still in decline about a decade ago. Even after so long, neither franchise is that good... although I'd much rather trade places with Edmonton since they at least have Cup caliber core. There was a lot of pain for them to get to that point. We have to go through all that still.

I'm not sure I'd say they will "jump" ahead of teams, but they'll be in a group that's bad rather than being out by themselves. I expect LA to still be bad, Ottawa isn't going to be much better. Will NJ improve? Maybe, but they'll probably still be bad. Chicago could slip. If we're in that group where a win or two can radically change the order, I could see us finishing ahead of any of them while still being one of the five worst teams in the league.

And the two areas you highlight as keeping us at the bottom are also the two positions where the Wings will nearly be forced to bring in some outside help. It doesn't have to be great help, but just bringing in competent players who can be league average at their spots are upgrades over a number of guys who will be leaving (especially Howard).

I don't think any of us see the Wings pulling a Colorado here, and I don't think I was implying that with my post. I did say I expect them to be bottom5 in the league. But I don't think it's unrealistic for the Wings to still be really bad, but finish in 29th instead of 31st.

 

[vladdy16]

Just being curious, what teams can you envision the Wings jumping ahead of next season?

I think we're a lock to finish bottom 3, and and see very little chance we'll finish anywhere but dead last again. This team is absolutely terrible. Goaltending and defense in particular are going to keep us at the bottom again. Do I think we'll be historically bad next season? More than likely, yes. Look at GR. There is no wave of talent coming. Maybe we'll add a player or two who are in the minors, but that will make a negligible difference. If we sign any free agents it will be more Nemeth and Filppula quality players. Yzerman is not going to be swinging for the fences and throwing big money at UFA's with our horrible roster. He's going to be looking for bargains and potential breakout candidates. Not enough problem players are coming off the books this summer, either.

We have 12 wins, but 3 of those came in the first 4 games. Since game 5 we are 9-37-4. We are not going to get 20 wins. Since game 5 we're on a 14 win season pace.

I do not see a situation similar to Colorado in 2016-17, where we will have a 90+ point season next year. We have no MacKinnon and no similar depth. We're going to be at the bottom of the standings for a while. At least a couple more seasons. The better our luck in the lottery, the shorter that time frame may be.

We don't have to embrace the futility, but I think the sooner we accept that we're going to have a multi-season stint at the bottom the better off the fanbase will be. There is no sense in getting angry or setting unrealistic expectations. Think Edmonton or Buffalo, but when they were still in decline about a decade ago. Even after so long, neither franchise is that good... although I'd much rather trade places with Edmonton since they at least have Cup caliber core. There was a lot of pain for them to get to that point. We have to go through all that still.

Great post and I agree there is something kind of haunting about the lack of vitality in GR.

However, I believe so strongly in the character of Ras, Smith, Cholowski etc. That in my mind, there is no plausible excuse for the DRW to be justified in sinking to the depths of the oilers or sabres.

 

[RedMenace]

Willing to endure? Absolutely.

Wanting it to happen that way? No chance in hell.

 

[Retire91]

I can stomach anything after the 7 years of Holland stop gap hockey. This team is a breath of fresh air compared to a hodgepodge of the latest retiring veteran UFA and Helm and Abby in top lines and Cleary another year older. At least we have legit young high-end potential now and looking forward to a new core. No way they compete in the next year or two so might as well snag a couple of lottery picks.

I really don't get the fascination with Krug but whatever just hope it doesn't happen.

 

[2xJack]

Great post and I agree there is something kind of haunting about the lack of vitality in GR.

However, I believe so strongly in the character of Ras, Smith, Cholowski etc. That in my mind, there is no plausible excuse for the DRW to be justified in sinking to the depths of the oilers or sabres.

I like Rasmussen. A lot. I think there are some prospects in the system that could turn into good players. Ras is one of them. I also like Seider a lot.

That said, I have two concerns that point to us being on the Oilers or Sabers track. The first is that I don't evaluate any of our prospects as being ready and making an impact in the short term, over the next couple of seasons. Some may join the roster in that window, but I don't think they'll have a big impact. Like Zadina this season, it will be all about learning and adjusting their game. They'll need time to grow into solid contributors.

The other issue is the reworked lottery. The odds are just too low of getting the #1 pick when you finish dead last, or even of getting a top 3 pick in that situation. The rules are rigged to keep us at the bottom for a while.

 

[ThePuckStopsHere]

I could care less about being ‘historically bad’ for the next 2 more years as long as the rebuild works. Like someone else said, Babcock and Hollands stop gap hockey mentality is what got them here. They need the high end talent.

I think seeing Laf or Byfield drafted, play and grow next year would make a lot of us feel better, even if the losing continues.

Seeing all these sad sack vets eat up roster spots is what seems to be getting most of us down.

 

[Retire91]

This team still has 15 million in 'negative value player' cap space to shed and 10 more million in float the boat mediocrity signings still on the books next year. We also have some key RFA signings needed like Bertuzzi and Fabbri and Mantha. We do have some dead cap coming off the books "finally" but nowhere near out of the water yet. If this team is competitive in 2.5 years let's be clear and honest with each other that is a "best case" "pie in the sky" senario

 

[odin1981]

This team still has 15 million in 'negative value player' cap space to shed and 10 more million in float the boat mediocrity signings still on the books next year. We also have some key RFA signings needed like Bertuzzi and Fabbri and Mantha. We do have some dead cap coming off the books "finally" but nowhere near out of the water yet. If this team is competitive in 2.5 years let's be clear and honest with each other that is a "best case" "pie in the sky" senario

I think in 2.5 years it won't be competing but starting a slow ascent outta the gutter. But we better hit a #1 or #2 at least once in the next three years for that to happen. I still expect 1-2 years of bottom third of the league before we are able to go for like #7-10 seeds in the east.

 

[Henkka]

I can stomach anything after the 7 years of Holland stop gap hockey. This team is a breath of fresh air compared to a hodgepodge of the latest retiring veteran UFA and Helm and Abby in top lines and Cleary another year older. At least we have legit young high-end potential now and looking forward to a new core. No way they compete in the next year or two so might as well snag a couple of lottery picks.

I really don't get the fascination with Krug but whatever just hope it doesn't happen.

Next draft isn't quite worth of tanking. There's that Finnish Räty, but otherways the top picks are an equal bunch of defencemen, who take long to develop.

Next draft worth of tanking after 2020 (get a forward talent who pans out instantly) would be 2022, but I think we should start building up before that. So why not start next summer.

I say we should build up from 2020 and 'll also predict that Yzerman will do the same. He doesn't need multiple high picks to build a great team. Like, it looks like he did hit with Seider and makes it sure he will hit with 2020 pick. +our other young talent. And then it's enough. Time to raise up.

Time to start a legit Hockey Team after this nonsense. Otherways we will become another Buffalo Sabres.

Just build up. Get better players, here and there. Worst guy out, new guy in, on every position. Repeat, repeat, repeat. It has already happened a bit. Zadina struggled early, but come trough. Looks legit NHLr now. Givani Smith looks the same, good bottom6 demolition man on the making. Fabbri-trade was successful. Seider will soon be up, as well as Veleno, Rasmussen. One-by-one, it happens.

On free agency, add Torey Krug (skating transition, our biggest weakness), add Erik Haula to Center (Faceoffs, scoring, and nothing but speed and skating, our weakness), and add a real goaltender (not Jimmy Howard). One-by-one, bit-by-bit, a better team.

We have the kid core, now it's just time and development doing a favor for us. Just surround them with more real talent.

 

[Red Stanley]

Next draft isn't quite worth of tanking. There's that Finnish Räty, but otherways the top picks are an equal bunch of defencemen, who take long to develop.

Next draft worth of tanking after 2020 (get a forward talent who pans out instantly) would be 2022, but I think we should start building up before that. So why not start next summer.

I say we should build up from 2020 and 'll also predict that Yzerman will do the same. He doesn't need multiple high picks to build a great team. Like, it looks like he did hit with Seider and makes it sure he will hit with 2020 pick. +our other young talent. And then it's enough. Time to raise up.

Time to start a legit Hockey Team after this nonsense. Otherways we will become another Buffalo Sabres.

Just build up. Get better players, here and there. Worst guy out, new guy in, on every position. Repeat, repeat, repeat. It has already happened a bit. Zadina struggled early, but come trough. Looks legit NHLr now. Givani Smith looks the same, good bottom6 demolition man on the making. Fabbri-trade was successful. Seider will soon be up, as well as Veleno, Rasmussen. One-by-one, it happens.

On free agency, add Torey Krug (skating transition, our biggest weakness), add Erik Haula to Center (Faceoffs, scoring, and nothing but speed and skating, our weakness), and add a real goaltender (not Jimmy Howard). One-by-one, bit-by-bit, a better team.

We have the kid core, now it's just time and development doing a favor for us. Just surround them with more real talent.

Yup. There really is nowhere to go but up from here. Even as of right now I'm sure we'd be better off with Seider instead of Daley, Ras instead of Nielsen, and close your eyes and throw a dart at the board instead of Abby.

 

[Retire91]

Next draft isn't quite worth of tanking. There's that Finnish Räty, but otherways the top picks are an equal bunch of defencemen, who take long to develop.

Next draft worth of tanking after 2020 (get a forward talent who pans out instantly) would be 2022, but I think we should start building up before that. So why not start next summer.

I say we should build up from 2020 and 'll also predict that Yzerman will do the same. He doesn't need multiple high picks to build a great team. Like, it looks like he did hit with Seider and makes it sure he will hit with 2020 pick. +our other young talent. And then it's enough. Time to raise up.

Time to start a legit Hockey Team after this nonsense. Otherways we will become another Buffalo Sabres.

Just build up. Get better players, here and there. Worst guy out, new guy in, on every position. Repeat, repeat, repeat. It has already happened a bit. Zadina struggled early, but come trough. Looks legit NHLr now. Givani Smith looks the same, good bottom6 demolition man on the making. Fabbri-trade was successful. Seider will soon be up, as well as Veleno, Rasmussen. One-by-one, it happens.

On free agency, add Torey Krug (skating transition, our biggest weakness), add Erik Haula to Center (Faceoffs, scoring, and nothing but speed and skating, our weakness), and add a real goaltender (not Jimmy Howard). One-by-one, bit-by-bit, a better team.

We have the kid core, now it's just time and development doing a favor for us. Just surround them with more real talent.

I am all for it the only philosophy I don't want to see is UFA that do not fit the core until the core exists and we know UFA can fit. Especially if its someone that is going to get top-line money and be 35 taking up top-line money for 3 more seasons when the wings start competing. For example someone like Nicklas Backstrom, Torey Krug right now would make no sense because of their age and the moeny and term they would want. Do they immediately improve the team? Of course they do. Does their improvement make no point and also hurt us? Also yes. Our core age group right now is 18-23, and our top line players should come through the draft. If we start signing 28 year old players to 6-7 year deals at top money then those players are going to be in their mid 30's and possibly declining when the wings true core starts competing. I don't want Krug taking up top-line money on his decline if Yzerman manages to open a cup window with the new core. We don't want to sign players now that we need to try and "get rid of" when the team becomes legit.

I am not in favor of tanking but I am against signing players that don't make sense just because Holland defenders are sick of losing. Building a cup team takes expertise, luck, and patience. We have the expertise, we can't control the luck. But you the fanbase can control the patience. Our core should come through the draft. If we can sign a league leading 22 year old then, by all means, do it do it do it. But how often does that happen? Which 22-24 year old all stars are available in UFA right now? What teams are going to give them up via trade without demanding a king's ransom?

We need to be careful signing 28 year old players to top-line salaries when our core is 18-23. There doesn't seem to be a lot of talk about that so I am trying to throw it out there as something to think about.

Do you want a 33 year old undersized D (possibly declining) power-play specialist taking up top pairing money on your team that is opening its cup window with a 20-27 year old core? Just think it over.