Ryan Kesler is the nearest equivalent in terms of skillset and performances from a 1st rounder.
Is Kesler a bust?
(Note: If Ryan had played in Pittsburgh, there would be an equivalent role, as Mike went to Colorado and played behind Sakic and Forsberg and so transformed his game into an elite 3rd line pivot role, with a lot of checking responsibilities. Ryan in contrast has been a 2nd liner able to concentrate on offense as much as defense. The team's needs dictated their roles and both have done excellently.)
well, kesler was picked late in the first round. if it had been 1990, when ricci was drafted, the kesler pick would have been in the 2nd round. in fact, at the exact same position in the 1990 draft (#23), vancouver took jiri slegr with its third pick.
ricci, otoh, was rated number one for a good length of time in his 17 year and went 4th overall. he was projected to be a franchise player. i remember reading back in the day a scout saying about the weak 1989 draft: “if they were available, mike ricci would be the first overall pick and lindros [then 16 years old] would go second.” (of course, i don’t think he thought fedorov or bure were coming over, and i’m sure he didn’t know about lidstrom.)
no, ricci wasn’t a bust by any stretch. but he certainly fell shorter of expectations (low end of projections being 1980s ron francis, ceiling being clarke), than kesler, who in fact dramatically exceeded expectations by turning himself into a 75 point scorer one year and 40 goal scorer in another year. when he was drafted, he had no shot to speak of. it couldn’t break a pane of glass, as they say. with incredible hard work, he became a really good shooter, if given enough time and space. and peak kesler had the wheels, strength, and smarts to buy himself that space.
kes was projected as a very good third line center. i don’t think anyone expected a selke, two runners up, and two more nominations, but i’d say we expected his high end to be a rich man’s jay beagle—more speed, maybe a bit more offense, and an accelerated career arc.
i don’t like the ricci/kes comparison. stylistically, ricci was a brainier player, much more of a playmaker on the offensive end, and a more patient, positional defender. he was a slow guy who slowed the game down to his speed. kes was a skater first and foremost, which is why he is useless now. very limited offensive vision and at his best when he just puts his head down and flies down the ice in a solo effort and beats the goalie clean with that wrist shot that took forever to wind up and every person in the building knew was coming. defensively, he was an unbelievable man on man defender. he was smart defensively, don’t get me wrong, but he was more a zetterberg, not a datsyuk, if you know what i mean.
possibly partially due to circumstance as you say (sakic, forsberg), ricci also never combined his decent offensive peak with his excellent defensive play. but i tend to also think the later san jose ricci that centered nik sundstrom and scott thornton was peak defensive ricci. with kesler, those peaks overlapped and he picked up a legit smattering of hart votes in his most visible year (finishing 8th, begind daniel but ahead of both henrik and luongo).