Would a new NBA franchise have a higher chance of succeeding in Vancouver or Montreal?

[MMC]

I’ve long wanted Canada to get a second NBA team, and it seems likely that these would be the two cities that are most likely. Which do you think would find better success as a NBA city?

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[Fenway]

I’ve long wanted Canada to get a second NBA team, and it seems likely that these would be the two cities that are most likely. Which do you think would find better success as a NBA city?

I would lean towards Montreal because of the large allophone population but the caveat is if the city does get MLB back which seems likely. Could Montreal then support 3 teams? (4 including MLS)

Assuming Seattle is a lock for NBA expansion ( or relocation ) I think the NBA would look for a team in the east.

New Orleans and Memphis are fragile franchises and could be relocation candidates.

 

[KevFu]

I would lean towards Montreal because of the large allophone population but the caveat is if the city does get MLB back which seems likely. Could Montreal then support 3 teams? (4 including MLS)

Assuming Seattle is a lock for NBA expansion ( or relocation ) I think the NBA would look for a team in the east.

New Orleans and Memphis are fragile franchises and could be relocation candidates.

I don't think they'd automatically look for an Eastern city to join with Seattle. There's six Eastern Conference teams that Minnesota is closer to than anyone in the West. If they did Seattle and Vancouver, and slid Minnesota to the East, the T-Wolves would be very happy. New Orleans and Memphis could also raise their hands to join the East.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

I don't think they'd automatically look for an Eastern city to join with Seattle. There's six Eastern Conference teams that Minnesota is closer to than anyone in the West. If they did Seattle and Vancouver, and slid Minnesota to the East, the T-Wolves would be very happy. New Orleans and Memphis could also raise their hands to join the East.

wouldn't that unbalance the alignment... it's the same MO the NHL did to balance the inequity of the Western Conference, that's why None of the existing 16 Clubs except when it was a total realignment that got Toronto, then Detroit/Columbus in to the Eastern Conference, Kev.

as it stands now, take out the pandemic, would the Raptors have selected Tampa as a temporary home base?

 

[Albatros]

The demographics clearly favor Vancouver.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I think just on paper that the financials for Montreal make more sense, but the wild card would be the fact that they'd assuredly have a hard rep to attract/retain free agents due to a French-speaking media/fanbase. That would be a very alien concept for basically any American-born player and would be something that probably a lot would not want to deal with without realizing that it's a heavy anglophone city as well.

I do think both could work, though.

 

[Fenway]

I think just on paper that the financials for Montreal make more sense, but the wild card would be the fact that they'd assuredly have a hard rep to attract/retain free agents due to a French-speaking media/fanbase. That would be a very alien concept for basically any American-born player and would be something that probably a lot would not want to deal with without realizing that it's a heavy anglophone city as well.

I do think both could work, though.

@No Fun Shogun The flip side of that wild card is Montreal may have appeal to Euro players

There are not many US markets left for the NBA to sniff at that can handle a billion-dollar entry fee.

Kansas City is a wide-open market and a decent TV market could be carved out with no NBA team in St. Louis. ( currently, KC gets OKC games )
Nashville - possibly
Pittsburgh - The NBA has never shown interest in the market.
St. Louis - The NBA fled the market when the Blues came along and the NBA has not even sniffed at the market since.
Tampa - too close to Orlando
Anaheim - Lakers and Clippers
San Diego - doubtful

 

[Centrum Hockey]

@No Fun Shogun The flip side of that wild card is Montreal may have appeal to Euro players

There are not many US markets left for the NBA to sniff at that can handle a billion-dollar entry fee.

Kansas City is a wide-open market and a decent TV market could be carved out with no NBA team in St. Louis. ( currently, KC gets OKC games )
Nashville - possibly
Pittsburgh - The NBA has never shown interest in the market.
St. Louis - The NBA fled the market when the Blues came along and the NBA has not even sniffed at the market since.
Tampa - too close to Orlando
Anaheim - Lakers and Clippers
San Diego - doubtful

Did you intentionally omit Las Vegas?

 

[Fenway]

Did you intentionally omit Las Vegas?

I honestly think Vegas is leery of the NBA going back to the issues they had a few years ago when the ASG was there. For the NBA it would be a smaller TV market than the NHL because it would not include Utah.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Did you intentionally omit Las Vegas?

Vegas would likely have to do with Black Knight Sports, Centrum, now with the VGK being as successful as they were, now was that because of the historical nature of the market, based off Vegas' history of hockey, and their sudden focus on fleecing San Antonio and the Holt family issues in and around Spurs Sports..... 1st the out and out sale/relocation of the now LV Aces (SA Silver Stars) to Mandalay Bay.... THEN the sudden shockwave pre-pandemic that was the SA Rampage being transformed into the Henderson Silver Knights, which remains TBD....

IS BKS, a potential KC scenario, They haven't really said either way.....

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think Vancouver has an advantage due to language and climate.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I think Vancouver has an advantage due to language and climate.

that was said last time

 

[KevFu]

wouldn't that unbalance the alignment... it's the same MO the NHL did to balance the inequity of the Western Conference, that's why None of the existing 16 Clubs except when it was a total realignment that got Toronto, then Detroit/Columbus in to the Eastern Conference, Kev.

as it stands now, take out the pandemic, would the Raptors have selected Tampa as a temporary home base?

Huh? The NBA has 13 ETZ teams, 9 CTZ, 2.5 MTZ teams, 6.5 PTZ teams (Arizona is the 0.5).
Chicago, Milwaukee are CTZ teams in the Eastern Conference.
Minnesota, Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are CTZ teams in the Western Conference, and Minnesota is the ONLY Northern CTZ team in the West.

 

[CanadianCoyote]

that was said last time

The Grizzlies were run in an utterly incompetent manner and never won anything. Their highest finish was 6th in the division and 11th in the conference, with a record of 19-32. Literally not once did they make the playoffs in Vancouver, and they were never even at .500.

Give the city a team that's run competently and we can see if Vancouver actually supports the NBA.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Huh? The NBA has 13 ETZ teams, 9 CTZ, 2.5 MTZ teams, 6.5 PTZ teams (Arizona is the 0.5).
Chicago, Milwaukee are CTZ teams in the Eastern Conference.
Minnesota, Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are CTZ teams in the Western Conference, and Minnesota is the ONLY Northern CTZ team in the West.

I do not see New Orleans or Memphis going anywhere, Kev, in terms of supposition/hypotheticals ....

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Huh? The NBA has 13 ETZ teams, 9 CTZ, 2.5 MTZ teams, 6.5 PTZ teams (Arizona is the 0.5).
Chicago, Milwaukee are CTZ teams in the Eastern Conference.
Minnesota, Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are CTZ teams in the Western Conference, and Minnesota is the ONLY Northern CTZ team in the West.

Maybe Minnesota moving to the east will be part of a sale agreement. The NHL proved that you can work with a imbalanced conference for a couple seasons.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Maybe Minnesota moving to the east will be part of a sale agreement. The NHL proved that you can work with a imbalanced conference for a couple seasons.

like Glen Taylor would ever be forced out of Minnesota....

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Everything I've heard is that Minnesota and Memphis both absolutely want to be in the East for obvious reasons. They'd both be on board with adding western teams to try to move them to the East, I'm sure.

But I wouldn't call either of them particularly powerful ownership groups in the NBA, so I don't think they'd be able to sway the NBA from Montreal to Vancouver alone.

 

[KevFu]

I do not see New Orleans or Memphis going anywhere, Kev, in terms of supposition/hypotheticals ....

Going? This wasn't relocation talk, it was realignment talk.

I mean, we're talking if the NBA adds two western cities to the league -- i.e. Seattle and Vegas or Vancouver; instead of Seattle and Montreal.

In that scenario, one Western Conference team would join the Eastern Conference.

And the odds-on favorite would be Minnesota because they're not really close to any Western Conference team, they are closer to MIL, CHI, IND, DET, TOR than they are to Denver or OKC.

 

[MNNumbers]

Huh? The NBA has 13 ETZ teams, 9 CTZ, 2.5 MTZ teams, 6.5 PTZ teams (Arizona is the 0.5).
Chicago, Milwaukee are CTZ teams in the Eastern Conference.
Minnesota, Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are CTZ teams in the Western Conference, and Minnesota is the ONLY Northern CTZ team in the West.

Great chart Kev.

Now, my question is: Is there actually any evidence of ownership groups in either Montreal or Vancouver? Also...
Seattle's new Arena will be very attractive. One wonders if Memphis is viable. I don't know anything about that, other than a vague rumbling I heard a while ago.

But, never mind expansion:
If Memphis moved to Seattle, then the West makes a whole lot more sense:
Oklahoma moves to the Ranch Division: Dallas, Houston, SA, OKC, New Orleans
Seattle, which is new, moves into the NW.
Minnesota is still on an island. But, that's my team, and they've only been good one year. They are irrelevant.

In case of expansion to Van and Sea, then what does one do?
NW: VAN, SEA, PORT, GSW, SAC, LAK, LAC, PHX?
CENT: UTAH, DEN, OKC, MEM, NOR, DAL, HOU, SAN?

GREAT LAKES: MIN, MIL, CHI, DET, IND, TOR, CLE, +???
AMERICAN COLONIES: NY, BROOK, BOS, WAS, PHI, CHAR, ATL, MIA, ORL (one of these plays in the north)

Swap Memphis for Minnesota, and Wolves have no close games, and a pair of the Southeast - ish clubs have to play in the NE division. That would be tough to achieve...

Schedule would be similar to now:
2 games with other conference: 32
3 games with own conference: 45
Remaining 5 games against own division: 5

 

[Zenos]

The Grizzlies were run in an utterly incompetent manner and never won anything. Their highest finish was 6th in the division and 11th in the conference, with a record of 19-32. Literally not once did they make the playoffs in Vancouver, and they were never even at .500.

Give the city a team that's run competently and we can see if Vancouver actually supports the NBA.

Absolutely agreed.

It's also worth noting that metro Vancouver has added over 500,000 new residents since 2000. It's a large, growing, wealthy, and diverse region. I know it's only been 2 decades, but I feel like the market has changed a lot since the grizzlies left. Vancouver seemed a lot more towny back then in comparison.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

The Grizzlies were run in an utterly incompetent manner and never won anything. Their highest finish was 6th in the division and 11th in the conference, with a record of 19-32. Literally not once did they make the playoffs in Vancouver, and they were never even at .500.

Give the city a team that's run competently and we can see if Vancouver actually supports the NBA.

Absolutely agreed.

It's also worth noting that metro Vancouver has added over 500,000 new residents since 2000. It's a large, growing, wealthy, and diverse region. I know it's only been 2 decades, but I feel like the market has changed a lot since the grizzlies left. Vancouver seemed a lot more towny back then in comparison.

David Stern and Adam Silver both said that the league office has a lot of regret when it came to Vancouver.

 

[sexydonut]

If they were run properly, they'd both work. But as others have noted, the NBA needs 2 more western conference teams.

Both cities are well above the wealth and population needed to sustain a new franchise. Both cities are currently underserved. Montreal would instantly have a rivalry with the Raptors and Celtics. Vancouver would have a rivalry with the Raptors and any prospective Seattle team.

 

[Voight]

Vancouver. I dont think there is really that much interest in having a basketball team in Montreal. Even for players who would have to live there... it would be really difficult for them to adjust mainly due to the language barrier.

Its a nice city, but its strictly a hockey town.

 

[KevFu]

Great chart Kev.

Now, my question is: Is there actually any evidence of ownership groups in either Montreal or Vancouver? Also...
Seattle's new Arena will be very attractive. One wonders if Memphis is viable. I don't know anything about that, other than a vague rumbling I heard a while ago.

But, never mind expansion:
If Memphis moved to Seattle, then the West makes a whole lot more sense:
Oklahoma moves to the Ranch Division: Dallas, Houston, SA, OKC, New Orleans
Seattle, which is new, moves into the NW.
Minnesota is still on an island. But, that's my team, and they've only been good one year. They are irrelevant.

In case of expansion to Van and Sea, then what does one do?
NW: VAN, SEA, PORT, GSW, SAC, LAK, LAC, PHX?
CENT: UTAH, DEN, OKC, MEM, NOR, DAL, HOU, SAN?

GREAT LAKES: MIN, MIL, CHI, DET, IND, TOR, CLE, +???
AMERICAN COLONIES: NY, BROOK, BOS, WAS, PHI, CHAR, ATL, MIA, ORL (one of these plays in the north)

Swap Memphis for Minnesota, and Wolves have no close games, and a pair of the Southeast - ish clubs have to play in the NE division. That would be tough to achieve...

Schedule would be similar to now:
2 games with other conference: 32
3 games with own conference: 45
Remaining 5 games against own division: 5

1. Montreal is like the inverse of Houston. If there's a Montreal NBA team, it's going to be owned by the Molson family. Not by official language in the lease agreement (that I'm aware of), but by simple common sense that has led to no one try to negotiate with the Rockets to sublease the arena; and why no one wanted to buy the Thrashers and negotiate with ASG to sublease the arena. So even if Molson isn't the principle owner, he's going to have to be at least a minority investor.

The Premier commented in 2018 that Molson "was open" to having an NBA team play in the arena. But Fertitta is "open" to an NHL team, so no idea what that really means.

Vancouver? No idea. I'd imagine the same kind of thing with the Canucks. He who controls the arena, controls the expansion bid.

2. I don't like to go hypothetically moving teams around because it happens so rarely.

3. I want the record to reflect that I think Montreal is way more likely than Vancouver; but I also think that Vegas will be an extremely serious contender to the point that if Molson isn't all-in, Montreal will lose to Vegas.

4. That being said... I think the hypothetical 2 West expansion teams, Minnesota moves East looks like this:

NW: SEA, PORT, GSW, SAC
PAC: LAL, LAC, VEG, PHX
MTN: DEN, UTAH, OKC, MEM
SW: SA, HOU, DAL, NO

MW: MIN, MIL, CHI, IND
NE: CLE, DET, TOR, BOS
ATL: NYK, BRK, PHI, WAS
SE: CHAR, ATL, ORL, MIA

4 games vs division (12)
3 games vs conference (36)
2 games with other conference (32)
4 games additional vs conference for TV/rivalry purposes: BOS-NYK, CHI-DET, GSW and SAC vs LAL and LAC; etc.