Worst Trade in the Doug Wilson Era

[Pavelski2112]

Even then, worst case you ride out 3 (or 2 afterwards) hard seasons instead of 8(7). It was pretty clear cut that EK wasn't going to be more beneficial than Pavs was when the contracts were signed.

The contract didn't look very good, sure, but I think the idea that EK would regain his footing and that Pavs was starting to decline a la Patty wasn't exactly a hot take at the time. There was plenty to show that EK could still be a superstar and Pavs wanted to get paid the money he deserved.

 

[TheBeard]

The contract didn't look very good, sure, but I think the idea that EK would regain his footing and that Pavs was starting to decline a la Patty wasn't exactly a hot take at the time. There was plenty to show that EK could still be a superstar and Pavs wanted to get paid the money he deserved.

To be honest, at the time, EK was the one looking more like the one in decline.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Even then, worst case you ride out 3 (or 2 afterwards) hard seasons instead of 8(7). It was pretty clear cut that EK wasn't going to be more beneficial than Pavs was when the contracts were signed. Signing EK (also) made them have to let Nyquist/Donskoi go. Signing Karlsson (also) forced them to let both Nyquist/Donskoi go.

You cant say signing EK made Pavelski walk AND Nyquist and Donskoi, it would be one or the other(s) not both

 

[tiburon12]

You cant say signing EK made Pavelski walk AND Nyquist and Donskoi, it would be one or the other(s) not both

Right, people are forgetting about signing Meier and how that played a part in Donskoi and Nyquist leaving (if the Sharks even wanted them).

Even if they had let EK walk and they sign pavs to 7x3, most the 4.5mil in savings would have gone to Labanc. Still no room to sign Nyquist or Donskoi

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

You cant say signing EK made Pavelski walk AND Nyquist and Donskoi, it would be one or the other(s) not both

Wasn't necessarily trying to indicate that, just meant it was either Karlsson or a combination of them.

Right, people are forgetting about signing Meier and how that played a part in Donskoi and Nyquist leaving (if the Sharks even wanted them).

Even if they had let EK walk and they sign pavs to 7x3, most the 4.5mil in savings would have gone to Labanc. Still no room to sign Nyquist or Donskoi

I think you need to check your math. Karlsson is 11.5m. Pavs is 7 and Donskoi would've been 4.5, which evens out. Labanc was unused space. Had nothing to do this these signings.

 

[tiburon12]

Wasn't necessarily trying to indicate that, just meant it was either Karlsson or a combination of them.



I think you need to check your math. Karlsson is 11.5m. Pavs is 7 and Donskoi would've been 4.5, which evens out. Labanc was unused space. Had nothing to do this these signings.

Labanc signed a 1x1 RFA deal, which was only on the table because there was a cap crunch after the Karlsson signing. Labanc wouldn't have taken that "team friendly deal" (as he said in his interview) had more money been available.

so, 7 to pavs and 2-4 to Labanc leaves .5-2.5 mil for Donskoi. He signed in CO for 3.9 mil.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Point to consider: none of these contracts being discussed are good ones. I'm glad DW didn't pursue Donskoi or Nyquist at those cap hits.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Point to consider: none of these contracts being discussed are good ones. I'm glad DW didn't pursue Donskoi or Nyquist at those cap hits.

Nyquist is really rough, but Donskoi has a great contract. Incredible player. I'd obviously take him and his deal over Labanc and his deal. Id take Donskoi over Labanc if they were both 3.9.

 

[tiburon12]

Nyquist is really rough, but Donskoi has a great contract. Incredible player. I'd obviously take him and his deal over Labanc and his deal. Id take Donskoi over Labanc if they were both 3.9.

The Joonas Donskoi who scored 0 regular season goals from Jan 10th onwards in 2019? The Joonas Donskoi who was scratched during those playoffs? The Joonas Donskoi who had 16 goals in the 19-20 season, ~13 of which came when he was riding shotgun with MacKinnon, and whose offense cratered as soon as he was demoted from that line?

If it weren't for the PP or playing with MacKinnon, Donskoi would be scoring like a 4th liner. 3.9 is a gross overpayment for his level of play (despite his talent being high). Dude just doesn't have the stuff night in-night out. He's a ceiling 40pt player and barely can achieve that on an offensive powerhouse Avs team.

Labanc, warts and all, is a superior player and younger. at the same cap hit, Labanc over Donskoi is a no-brainer...

 

[magic school bus]

To be honest, at the time, EK was the one looking more like the one in decline.

Pavelski looked absolutely washed after he scored that deflection

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It's amazing how rosy people seem to remember Pavs after a few years. Pavs managed to produce still at the end but betting on him to maintain a shooting percentage of 20% wasn't reasonable for a guy who had no clear fit anymore when it was being handed over to Couture and Hertl as your top two centers. But yeah, they could've kept him if they wanted to meet his demands and move out the needed salary. They absolutely could have. They chose not to and it had nothing to do with Karlsson. It would not have been hard to find 7 mil for Pavs at that point.

 

[one2gamble]

Pavs is almost useless outside of tipping pucks on net, I dont care what anyone thinks lol

 

[tealzamboni]

Pavelski looked absolutely washed after he scored that deflection

Pavs is almost useless outside of tipping pucks on net, I dont care what anyone thinks lol

That's what I remember about his last (maybe 2) playoffs with the Sharks. He was basically a human puck deflector.

Going back to system, IMO if they incorporated more movement, that might've given Pavs more time/space to find the sweet spot (slow as he may be). But, if it's just grind down low and stand in front of the net, then it's going to be a rough ride unless they thread the needle of pass shot to deflection.

 

[TheBeard]

Are we honestly still debating that letting Pavs go was a mistake? The proof is literally all there. The team’s PP went to complete shit, the lack of depth up front is glaring, there is absolutely no leadership especially from the guy that took the C off of 8. Even two years later Pavs would have led the team in virtually every offensive category.

 

[seroes]

Honestly just not having Karlsson signed to that contract would be a win. I know this is said with hindsight but that contract is why we suck now instead of at least being a playoff team for the next couple seasons. I understand why DW signed him but it's the final coffin nail for our window. It will also likely prevent us from having many meaningful pieces to sell off outside of Hertl the next couple years.

While watching Pavs be so successful stings, no one expected him to produce like he did this season and will likely not do so again next year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Are we honestly still debating that letting Pavs go was a mistake? The proof is literally all there. The team’s PP went to complete shit, the lack of depth up front is glaring, there is absolutely no leadership especially from the guy that took the C off of 8. Even two years later Pavs would have led the team in virtually every offensive category.

How many of those is simply because we let Pavs go and how many of those is simply the how they decided to attempt to address those individual issues? You have to move on from Pavelski eventually at his age. You have to plan for his eventual departure in one form or another. They were already phasing him out when he had no real spot in the lineup that fit his skills.

If they keep Pavelski and Karlsson, they're losing Dillon, Sorensen, Melker, and Dell at the very least to try and make room. Granted, only Dillon in that group really matters but it still has its impacts. And if they decided they could only keep one of Karlsson or Pavelski, like it or not, losing Karlsson still has a dramatic impact on the group. They still lose Justin Braun. They still lose Joonas Donskoi. They still lose Gustav Nyquist. The team was losing its depth no matter which direction they went in. They simply weren't going to be ready for that significant loss of talent no matter how you slice it.

How much of the PP going to shit is really Pavelski and not the coaching? How do we know Pavs still produces here when the talent drops off significantly regardless? These are all tough things to quantify, let alone place squarely on the loss of Pavelski. It's just not that simple.

 

[TheBeard]

How many of those is simply because we let Pavs go and how many of those is simply the how they decided to attempt to address those individual issues? You have to move on from Pavelski eventually at his age. You have to plan for his eventual departure in one form or another. They were already phasing him out when he had no real spot in the lineup that fit his skills.

If they keep Pavelski and Karlsson, they're losing Dillon, Sorensen, Melker, and Dell at the very least to try and make room. Granted, only Dillon in that group really matters but it still has its impacts. And if they decided they could only keep one of Karlsson or Pavelski, like it or not, losing Karlsson still has a dramatic impact on the group. They still lose Justin Braun. They still lose Joonas Donskoi. They still lose Gustav Nyquist. The team was losing its depth no matter which direction they went in. They simply weren't going to be ready for that significant loss of talent no matter how you slice it.

How much of the PP going to shit is really Pavelski and not the coaching? How do we know Pavs still produces here when the talent drops off significantly regardless? These are all tough things to quantify, let alone place squarely on the loss of Pavelski. It's just not that simple.

I think you're overanalyzing to be honest. You can pen a million different speculations, but the numbers don't lie. The team bottomed out when he left where as Dallas went to a cup final his first year. Sure it wasn't all him, but if you don't think he was a major contributor to both our decline and their rise then that's your prerogative. Even this year the Stars were an overachieving team that got nothing out of Seguin, Benn and Radulov and yet they were still in contention for the final spot because of the line of Hintz, Robertson and, yes, Pavelski. Sure we don't keep Nyquist and Donkey, but we have considerably more flexibility with Pavelski and not EK65. We didn't need another offensive-only defenceman no matter how dazzling he can occasionally be. DW wanted the glitz and the glamour to keep up with Vegas. Pavelski was neither of those, but he was our leader and a perennial 35-40 goal scorer not to mention the only other player on this team that would have a greater than 50% FO win ratio. Even this year he scored more than DOUBLE what our leading PPG leader had. Last year was a down year but he still would have been the second leading scorer on the PP here. You can blame coaching all you want and I'm sure there's a crumb of truth there, but you don't have that much talent on your top unit and be that incompetent. I really think you're severely underestimating how much this team missed Pavelski the past two years.

Now obviously hindsight is 20/20 and it's easy for me to say this now, but I can unabashedly acknowledge that at the time of both the EK signings and subsequent loss of Pavs how much I hated it. I thought we'd get two years of solid play from Karlsson before the wheels started falling off and unfortunately we didn't even get that.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think you're overanalyzing to be honest. You can pen a million different speculations, but the numbers don't lie. The team bottomed out when he left where as Dallas went to a cup final his first year. Sure it wasn't all him, but if you don't think he was a major contributor to both our decline and their rise then that's your prerogative. Even this year the Stars were an overachieving team that got nothing out of Seguin, Benn and Radulov and yet they were still in contention for the final spot because of the line of Hintz, Robertson and, yes, Pavelski. Sure we don't keep Nyquist and Donkey, but we have considerably more flexibility with Pavelski and not EK65. We didn't need another offensive-only defenceman no matter how dazzling he can occasionally be. DW wanted the glitz and the glamour to keep up with Vegas. Pavelski was neither of those, but he was our leader and a perennial 35-40 goal scorer not to mention the only other player on this team that would have a greater than 50% FO win ratio. Even this year he scored more than DOUBLE what our leading PPG leader had. Last year was a down year but he still would have been the second leading scorer on the PP here. You can blame coaching all you want and I'm sure there's a crumb of truth there, but you don't have that much talent on your top unit and be that incompetent. I really think you're severely underestimating how much this team missed Pavelski the past two years.

Now obviously hindsight is 20/20 and it's easy for me to say this now, but I can unabashedly acknowledge that at the time of both the EK signings and subsequent loss of Pavs how much I hated it. I thought we'd get two years of solid play from Karlsson before the wheels started falling off and unfortunately we didn't even get that.

And I think you're dismissing the real probability that the team would've hit the skids with or without Pavelski. You talk about perennial 35-40 goal scorer but the two years before his contract year, he wasn't hitting those marks and his point totals were slowly declining. I don't think you have the talent the Sharks have without Pavelski and fail as badly as they do solely because of Pavelski either. The players aren't being coached well and they aren't doing well on their own merits. There's never a guarantee that a longstanding player performs as well with the same team as opposed to a new team. Motivation is a real thing for players and Pavs had that and likely wouldn't have it if he were kept happy in San Jose.

 

[TheBeard]

And I think you're dismissing the real probability that the team would've hit the skids with or without Pavelski. You talk about perennial 35-40 goal scorer but the two years before his contract year, he wasn't hitting those marks and his point totals were slowly declining. I don't think you have the talent the Sharks have without Pavelski and fail as badly as they do solely because of Pavelski either. The players aren't being coached well and they aren't doing well on their own merits. There's never a guarantee that a longstanding player performs as well with the same team as opposed to a new team. Motivation is a real thing for players and Pavs had that and likely wouldn't have it if he were kept happy in San Jose.

Two things. One I personally do not think we would have failed as badly with Pavs because right now and for the past two years we don’t have a player that does what Pavs does. He’s a solid two way player that has unbelievable hand eye coordination and a great shot. As good as EK was, right now what he does isn’t anything special. He doesn’t have a unique X factor anymore. He doesn’t. He’s good but he’s not irreplaceable anymore. Pavs while not the marquee name clearly wasn’t.

Two: Even if the motivational aspect was true, are you saying he only had the season he did in 18-19 was because it was a contract year? Because if you are, that’s a pretty disrespectful manner of looking at a guy who’s potted over 350 goals with the franchise.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Two things. One I personally do not think we would have failed as badly with Pavs because right now and for the past two years we don’t have a player that does what Pavs does. He’s a solid two way player that has unbelievable hand eye coordination and a great shot. As good as EK was, right now what he does isn’t anything special. He doesn’t have a unique X factor anymore. He doesn’t. He’s good but he’s not irreplaceable anymore. Pavs while not the marquee name clearly wasn’t.

Two: Even if the motivational aspect was true, are you saying he only had the season he did in 18-19 was because it was a contract year? Because if you are, that’s a pretty disrespectful manner of looking at a guy who’s potted over 350 goals with the franchise.

Considering the things that were coming out even while Pavs was on the team, yeah I do think it was because it was a contract year and he wanted to show DW that he was deserving of the sort of contract he was asking for. There's nothing disrespectful about that. He's earned the right to go after that sort of contract. It was simply that the Sharks weren't going to give it to him. And while I think Pavs at the end was still productive, it wasn't sustainable and he was a shell of his former defensive ability here. I won't disagree about his leadership and if they were intending on contending, they should've kept him simply on that basis but it was clear as day that he wasn't as versatile as he once was and was being phased out.

Contract year motivation is a real thing. It's happened to Marleau on more than one occasion. It doesn't apply to everyone and all situations but it does happen. Pavs was absolutely pissed about him being left out of the same sort of commitment that was given to some of his teammates. He hasn't really hid that and he wasn't exactly in the wrong either and business decisions get made as a result.

 

[SJSharksfan39]

There might have been worst trades (Havlat, Polak, maybe Soupy Campbell, even though he was productive in his short time here) but I look at what the Sharks gave up to get Karlsson, and how disappointing Karlsson has been and I think that was the trade where I should have not been as excited as I was. I bought into the hype and it's been one disappointment after the other. Also, it has kind of wrecked this team in terms of developing young draft pick talent and seeing Norris being productive in Ottawa makes me wonder where the Sharks could be if they had not made the trade. Hell, I wonder what the team would have been like had they kept Hoffman, who went on to have a decent season in Florida that year if I recall.

 

[tealzamboni]

There might have been worst trades (Havlat, Polak, maybe Soupy Campbell, even though he was productive in his short time here) but I look at what the Sharks gave up to get Karlsson, and how disappointing Karlsson has been and I think that was the trade where I should have not been as excited as I was. I bought into the hype and it's been one disappointment after the other. Also, it has kind of wrecked this team in terms of developing young draft pick talent and seeing Norris being productive in Ottawa makes me wonder where the Sharks could be if they had not made the trade. Hell, I wonder what the team would have been like had they kept Hoffman, who went on to have a decent season in Florida that year if I recall.

IMO even with Hoffman, Wilson probably would've still made a deadline move, maybe even for another forward. It was the last shot for Marleau + Thornton + Pavelski and their path to victory was to overwhelm possession in the offensive zone. Though I agree with investing for the future, in that scenario Wilson would've rolled the dice 10 times out of 10 based on his track record.

 

[OrrNumber4]

That's what I remember about his last (maybe 2) playoffs with the Sharks. He was basically a human puck deflector.

You say human puck deflector. I say machine...a scoring machine! (Cookies to anyone who gets that reference.)

Are we honestly still debating that letting Pavs go was a mistake? The proof is literally all there. The team’s PP went to complete shit, the lack of depth up front is glaring, there is absolutely no leadership especially from the guy that took the C off of 8. Even two years later Pavs would have led the team in virtually every offensive category.

The problem with proof, especially in this case, is you're talking about a hypothetical world. There are plenty of straws, ropes, and elevators people can use for the counterfactual.

Honestly just not having Karlsson signed to that contract would be a win. I know this is said with hindsight but that contract is why we suck now instead of at least being a playoff team for the next couple seasons. I understand why DW signed him but it's the final coffin nail for our window. It will also likely prevent us from having many meaningful pieces to sell off outside of Hertl the next couple years.

While watching Pavs be so successful stings, no one expected him to produce like he did this season and will likely not do so again next year.

Karlsson is a sensitive issue, but there is no doubt he makes the team better in the short-run. The team would have finished lower in the standings without him...unless you're saying

1) The Sharks could have done something with the cap space (what?)
2) That's the point; you want the Sharks to deeply tank.

 

[magic school bus]

To be honest, at the time, EK was the one looking more like the one in decline.

Not really.

 

[tiburon12]

You say human puck deflector. I say machine...a scoring machine! (Cookies to anyone who gets that reference.)

If a video with that call wasn't posted in another thread, this would have bugged me all day!