With the 6th overall pick.....

[russ4king]

Well the season is essentially over and the draft is on the horizon it looks like the Sens draft pick will land around 6th overall. Obviously Anaheim has the pick because of the Bobby Ryan trade, but wondering who would the Sens have selected.

A few great prospects will likely be available....Nikolaj Ehlers, Brendan Perlini, Michael Dal Colle. So who do you think Anaheim will take, or who would the Sens have taken?

In retrospect...was the Bobby Ryan trade worth the price....Silfverberg, Noesen, 6th overall pick? And Sens still have to sign Ryan....if he wants to stay is debatable.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I think if we still had the pick our option A would be to trade up for eckblad.
our option B would probably have been dal colle. option C trade back and accumulate more picks

and in retrospect yeah I think the price was too steep, if only for this first round pick.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

How sad is that? (supposed) top team in the league, with the top ranked farm/prospect system currently....and they're going to get a top 10 first round pick from us. They are the last team in the league that needs that.

*sigh*

 

[russ4king]

Yup, the rich get richer. Well at least they are a Western team so they only face the Sens a couple times a year. Less opportunity to rub it in.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If Ryan signs an extension this summer, it's not too steep of a price to pay.

Ottawa may very well "lose" this trade, but if we're playing the hind sight game, this trade won't be judgeable for another few years out. Noesen may eventually be hampered by injuries, and the first round pick needs a few years to really play out.

 

[God Says No]

The pick should have been top 10 protected. Can't believe BM couldn't pull that off.

 

[EssendonBombers]

The pick should have been top 10 protected. Can't believe BM couldn't pull that off.

Which would probably mean the pick spills over to next year, which – given that 2015 is unanimously considered to be a much deeper draft class with an elite top end – would probably be even worse.

 

[smithy]

The pick should have been top 10 protected. Can't believe BM couldn't pull that off.

Is that a thing in the NHL? I've only ever heard of NBA managers doing that.

 

[russ4king]

Is that a thing in the NHL? I've only ever heard of NBA managers doing that.

Sure it is. Garth Snow did it with the Vanek trade from Buffalo. Top 10 protected...so NYI's have the option of moving the pick to the 2015 draft if they want.

 

[Iamok]

The pick should have been top 10 protected. Can't believe BM couldn't pull that off.

So we can hear this BS next year? **** that.

 

[HavlatMach9]

the better the Ducks pick, the better our own 2nd round pick.

that Ducks pick is the West's problem, not ours.

 

[Six Assets]

the better the Ducks pick, the better our own 2nd round pick.

that Ducks pick is the West's problem, not ours.

weak draft, no difference between top 10 pick and a second rounder

 

[Magix]

Ryan > whoever is 6th in this draft. Whats the problem again?

 

[Six Assets]

Ryan > whoever is 6th in this draft. Whats the problem again?

silf,top 6, noesen > Ryan

 

[18Hossa]

Would've wanted Dal Colle or Nylander

 

[EssendonBombers]

Ryan > whoever is 6th in this draft. Whats the problem again?

Ryan has no obligation and little reason to sign. That's the problem.

He has no loyalty to the club (i.e. wasn't drafted or developed here), his only year will have been one of the more disappointing in the franchise's history, the owner has no credibility and shaky finances, he hasn't found a comfortable spot in the lineup, he could cash in huge in free agency etc.

I don't know why Ryan would even consider resigning.

 

[moz]

I did a thingy and the chances of getting a player of Bobby Ryan's calibre outside of the top 5 in a given year (2005 to 2010, too early to judge later drafts) range from zero to twenty percent.

You can judge for yourself whether the addition of Silfverberg and Noesen to "draft pick 80%-100% likely to be worse than Ryan" makes the trade awful, but if you believe in the "best player" theory of trading...

edit: it was from an email and not very scientifically done, but:

Conclusion: outside of top 5 picks, an individual team has a 4% to 20% chance to draft a player of equivalent value to Bobby Ryan. Though many of the successful picks have been high, non-playoff picks (Skinner, Couture, OEL etc) basically the same amount have been selected in playoff range aka a pick most people would be fine with trading for Ryan (Karlsson, Pacioretty, Giroux etc). So even though draft picks are exciting and we want them, having Ryan is better than having a first round pick in Senators range. Then you have to factor in Silfverberg and Noesen, of course, but trading the pick was worth it based on the reality of past drafts and, as you alluded, the perceived lack of high-end talent in this draft class.

It is completely fair to acknowledge/criticize the projections of Murray and the Senators organization just as Burke did in trading draft picks for Kessel. Burke misjudged his team, suffered from sub-.900 goaltending, and ended up the second worst team in the league. Murray misjudged his team, suffered from sub .910 goaltender (and sub.900 in long stretches) and barring a miracle will be snuggly in the bottom 10 of the league. Both GMs misjudged but probably still ended up with the best players in the whole transaction. It just looks awful on them on draft day.

 

[Mercurial]

Ryan has no obligation and little reason to sign. That's the problem.

He has no loyalty to the club (i.e. wasn't drafted or developed here), his only year will have been one of the more disappointing in the franchise's history, the owner has no credibility and shaky finances, he hasn't found a comfortable spot in the lineup, he could cash in huge in free agency etc.

I don't know why Ryan would even consider resigning.

Well then we move him at the deadline.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Well then we move him at the deadline.

Exactly. I'm over the "OMG will Ryan sign" thing. If he isn't signed by the deadline next year, move him. Some contender will pay through the nose for him.

As for Anaheim's pick, well, at least they aren't in our conference.

 

[russ4king]

I did a thingy and the chances of getting a player of Bobby Ryan's calibre outside of the top 5 in a given year (2005 to 2010, too early to judge later drafts) range from zero to twenty percent.

You can judge for yourself whether the addition of Silfverberg and Noesen to "draft pick 80%-100% likely to be worse than Ryan" makes the trade awful, but if you believe in the "best player" theory of trading...

edit: it was from an email and not very scientifically done, but:



It is completely fair to acknowledge/criticize the projections of Murray and the Senators organization just as Burke did in trading draft picks for Kessel. Burke misjudged his team, suffered from sub-.900 goaltending, and ended up the second worst team in the league. Murray misjudged his team, suffered from sub .910 goaltender (and sub.900 in long stretches) and barring a miracle will be snuggly in the bottom 10 of the league. Both GMs misjudged but probably still ended up with the best players in the whole transaction. It just looks awful on them on draft day.

discounting the 6th overall pick is crazy.....Monahan, Lindholm, Zibanejad, Ekman-Larsson were all taken 6th overall in the last 5 years. I wouldn't trade Any of Monahan, Lindholm, or OEL a straight up for Ryan right now. So sorry, I discount your theory.

 

[Qward]

Oh well. The Ducks are only good at drafting D. Their first round forwards always end up disappointing. (for current scouting team, it was BM that drafted Getzlaf and Perry and it was Burke that drafted Ryan)

After Ekblad, the next ranked D is Fleury. They will screw up and take a crappy forward. Whoop-d-do.

 

[russ4king]

Exactly. I'm over the "OMG will Ryan sign" thing. If he isn't signed by the deadline next year, move him. Some contender will pay through the nose for him.

As for Anaheim's pick, well, at least they aren't in our conference.

Define pay through the nose? This years deadline proved that it was a buyers market. Only Ryan Miller and St. Louis received fair market value.

 

[moz]

discounting the 6th overall pick is crazy.....Monahan, Lindholm, Zibanejad, Ekman-Larsson were all taken 6th overall in the last 5 years. I wouldn't trade Any of Monahan, Lindholm, or OEL a straight up for Ryan right now. So sorry, I discount your theory.

Apology accepted.

 

[Qward]

discounting the 6th overall pick is crazy.....Monahan, Lindholm, Zibanejad, Ekman-Larsson were all taken 6th overall in the last 5 years. I wouldn't trade Any of Monahan, Lindholm, or OEL a straight up for Ryan right now. So sorry, I discount your theory.

Those were all from Strong draft years.

Gilbert Brule was a 6th over all.
Nikita Filatov,
Al Montoya



Do you know;
Brian Finley?
Daniel Tkaczuk?

Both were 6th over all.

 

[russ4king]

Those were all from Strong draft years.

Gilbert Brule was a 6th over all.
Nikita Filatov,
Al Montoya



Do you know;
Brian Finley?
Daniel Tkaczuk?

Both were 6th over all.

Peter Forsberg, Scott Hartnell, Milan Michalek, Miko Koivu, Sam Gagner all were 6th overall too.