Wins Above Replacement 2.0

[supsens]

Giveaways are not used. Players with a lot of giveaways tend to be primary puck movers for their teams and therefore valuable. A giveaway per CF ratio may have somewhat pardoned the Drew Doughtys of the world, but overall I didn't think it would be worth the trouble. Especially when you consider the subjectiveness of what is recorded a giveaway.

As for the even strength VS power play goals, you are right that they can be equally valuable over a small stretch. Over a season, though, ES goals correlate more with wins than anything else. A team with a bad power play can make the playoffs if they can score at even strength with the best of em, but you rarely see the opposite. As for individual players, it makes sense to value players more that can still contribute at their usual rate regardless of how many powerplays their team gets in a particular game or season (which can vary greatly.)

Hmm I don't know, if take aways are counted as good in order to beef up certain players, and give aways are ignored to beef up other players isn't that forcing an outcome you want to see rather than number based facts?
I am not trying to sound confrontational or negative. I am trying the learn how stats like this are generated. And my brain tells me if take aways are good and contribute to winning give aways have to be bad and result in losing.
If I steal the puck or you throw my winger the puck by mistake, it results in the same thing.

 

[NHL WAR]

Hmm I don't know, if take aways are counted as good in order to beef up certain players, and give aways are ignored to beef up other players isn't that forcing an outcome you want to see rather than number based facts?
I am not trying to sound confrontational or negative. I am trying the learn how stats like this are generated. And my brain tells me if take aways are good and contribute to winning give aways have to be bad and result in losing.
If I steal the puck or you throw my winger the puck by mistake, it results in the same thing.

I see where you are coming from. Ultimately, takeaways seemed to have a slight impact, so I integrated them at a microscopic value. It works out that even the leader only gains 1 "Goal" from it. So giveaways could be added because they usually go hand on hand with takeaways, but their impact would be nonexistent and IMO they would just be noise.

 

[supsens]

I see where you are coming from. Ultimately, takeaways seemed to have a slight impact, so I integrated them at a microscopic value. It works out that even the leader only gains 1 "Goal" from it. So giveaways could be added because they usually go hand on hand with takeaways, but their impact would be nonexistent and IMO they would just be noise.

Ok thank you sir. I still have a long way to go to fully understand what brings your final number to being so close to actual wins it’s a lot to take in

 

[NHL WAR]

Ok thank you sir. I still have a long way to go to fully understand what brings your final number to being so close to actual wins it’s a lot to take in

No problem. Just like the game itself, there is a lot going on in the stat. I'd be lying if I said I found the process of making it simple... it sure took me a while! So I completely understand that someone looking at it for the first time will find parts confusing.. let me know if you have anymore questions.

 

[morehockeystats]

I see where you are coming from. Ultimately, takeaways seemed to have a slight impact, so I integrated them at a microscopic value. It works out that even the leader only gains 1 "Goal" from it. So giveaways could be added because they usually go hand on hand with takeaways, but their impact would be nonexistent and IMO they would just be noise.

An average unblocked shot attempt has a probability of approx 6.2% going in.
The probability for an unblocked shot attempt quickly following a DZ giveaway is about 11.9%
The probability for an unblocked shot attempt quickly following an OZ takeaway is about 12.2%