NHL WAR
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2018
- 959
- 1,176
Hey guys. Many of you may have seen my original Wins Above Replacement post last fall. After taking a short break, I decided to make adjustments. I have just focused on forwards since, but I do intend to reintroduce defensemen and goaltender models in the future. Notable changes include the integration of expected goals and an increased importance on even-strength play compared to special teams. I ran the results dating back to the 2015-16 season. I feel that they are insightful, but at the same time honest to what happens on the ice. Nothing sticks out like a sore thumb. Here are the top 5 performers for each season of data:
2015-16
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2016-17
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2017-18
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2018-19
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WAR also works on a team level. The total WAR of a team's forwards plus the estimated number of games a team full of replacement level players would win lines up very well with the number of games a team actually wins. To be more clear:
If you would like to read a more detailed description and more importantly, see more results: A Winning Statistic
I have already started looking at a player's WAR after he signs a new contract or if there is a trade to aid my decision on whether or not it is a good deal. If you would be interested in seeing complete data set, just let me know and I will be happy to oblige.
If you have any other questions or requests, again, feel free to ask.
2015-16
Player | WAR |
Patrick Kane | 7.2 |
Sidney Crosby | 5.7 |
Anze Kopitar | 5.6 |
Jamie Benn | 5.6 |
Evgeny Kuznetsov | 5.4 |
2016-17
Player | WAR |
Connor McDavid | 7.7 |
Sidney Crosby | 6.3 |
Brad Marchand | 6 |
Nikita Kucherov | 5.8 |
David Pastrnak | 5.2 |
2017-18
Player | WAR |
Connor McDavid | 7.6 |
Claude Giroux | 6.9 |
Nikita Kucherov | 6.7 |
Taylor Hall | 6.1 |
Nathan MacKinnon | 5.9 |
2018-19
Player | WAR |
Nikita Kucherov | 8.4 |
Sidney Crosby | 7.5 |
Connor McDavid | 7.4 |
Johnny Gaudreau | 6.9 |
Steven Stamkos | 6.4 |
WAR also works on a team level. The total WAR of a team's forwards plus the estimated number of games a team full of replacement level players would win lines up very well with the number of games a team actually wins. To be more clear:
If you would like to read a more detailed description and more importantly, see more results: A Winning Statistic
I have already started looking at a player's WAR after he signs a new contract or if there is a trade to aid my decision on whether or not it is a good deal. If you would be interested in seeing complete data set, just let me know and I will be happy to oblige.
If you have any other questions or requests, again, feel free to ask.