Winnipeg's scoring problems

[knorthern knight]

The first step is admitting that you have a problem. Winnipeg's current problem is not defense or goalkeeping. Between Pavelec and Hutchinson, they've allowed the 4th fewest goals against per game. See http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.ht...&sort=avgGoalsAgainstPerGame&viewName=summary Only Nashville, Chicago, and St. Louis have allowed fewer goals against per game. The real problem is goals for per game. http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20152ALLSAAAll&sort=avgGoalsPerGame&viewName=summary shows Winnipeg as 29th (i.e. 2nd last), in goalscoring, with only Buffalo scoring fewer goals per game. Let's look a goals in regulation time. In the spirit of "Corsi-close", I'll eliminate overtime and shootout wins (1 "goal" each) and also empty-net goals. The raw numbers show 52 goals, but I eliminated 6 for...

• 3 empty-netters
• 2 shootout wins
• 1 overtime win

...leaving us with 46 goals in 25 games. Using the revised numbers I get...

• 4 games we were shoutout
• 8 games we got 1 goal
• 5 games we got 2 goals
• 6 games we got 3 goals
• 1 game we got 4 goals
• 1 game we got 6 goals

Eliminate the 6-goal romp over Arizona, and it becomes even sadder (40 goals in 24 games). A goalie can play with a .947 SV% and we still lose. It's only thanks to our goalkeeping that we're still in the playoff picture. E.g. in 3 consecutive games (Oct 30, Nov 1, and Nov 2), we scored a grand total of 2 regulation time goals... and came away with 5 points

What can we do to fix the situation?

Click to read more...

 

[garret9]

I wrote about this a few games ago and we have a thread here:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1780095

The short answer is that there are a ton (but not all) of Jets on very low sh% seasons.

And no, this is not due to the Jets new found commitment to defense... the Jets are shooting far lower than any team has been able to sustain.

 

[KingBogo]

My answer is let time take care of it. They are already trending in the right direction. If you divide the season to date in half they scored at a 1.83 rate over the first 12 games and over the next 13 games they have scored at a 2.31 rate. My guess by the end of the season once their sh% has a chance to normalize they will likely be in that 2.60 middle range. If they didn't get their chances, and didn't have players that have scored in the past I'd be more worried.

I just hope their defensive play and goaltending stays as as strong as it has been.

 

[Hunter368]

My answer is let time take care of it. They are already trending in the right direction. If you divide the season to date in half they scored at a 1.83 rate over the first 12 games and over the next 13 games they have scored at a 2.31 rate. My guess by the end of the season once their sh% has a chance to normalize they will likely be in that 2.60 middle range. If they didn't get their chances, and didn't have players that have scored in the past I'd be more worried.

I just hope their defensive play and goaltending stays as as strong as it has been.

Good points about shooting %. My concern also is the goaltending and defence....both seem to have slipped a bit lately (eye test only).

 

[Puckatron 3000]

See http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.ht...&sort=avgGoalsAgainstPerGame&viewName=summary Only Nashville, Chicago, and St. Louis have allowed fewer goals against per game.

Wow! The central division holds the top 4, and 5 of the top 6 in lowest GA / GP:
Nashville 1.96
Chicago 2.00
St. Louis 2.04
Winnipeg 2.16
LA 2.25
Minnesota 2.35

Tough competition.

 

[garret9]

Wow! The central division holds the top 4, and 5 of the top 6 in lowest GA / GP:
Nashville 1.96
Chicago 2.00
St. Louis 2.04
Winnipeg 2.16
LA 2.25
Minnesota 2.35

Tough competition.

Crazy tough division...

Score-Adjusted Corsi% placement in league:
1st - Chicago 56.9%
2nd - Minnesota 54.7%
3rd - Nashville 54.2%
11th - St. Louis 51.9%
12th - Winnipeg 51.6%
19th - Dallas 49.7%
28th - Colorado 44.1%

All but 2 teams in top half of the league, and one of the team's in the bottom half isn't far off.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Eliminate the 6-goal romp over Arizona, and it becomes even sadder (40 goals in 24 games).snip

What can we do to fix the situation?

Why would you eliminate the 6 goals? Even in diving they throw out the high and the low score. If you're going to eliminate the best game, eliminate one of the shutouts along with it, otherwise you're just tailoring the statistics to suit a narative.

What needs to be done is probably just patience IMO. I'm pretty confident at the end if the year the team SH% will be between 8-9%

 

[Aavco Cup]

Good points about shooting %. My concern also is the goaltending and defence....both seem to have slipped a bit lately (eye test only).

We haven't had our best dman on the ice for 3 games now. That certainly doesn't help

 

[Hunter368]

We haven't had our best dman on the ice for 3 games now. That certainly doesn't help

Very true

 

[Ducky10]

They finished 15th in scoring last year, very little has changed roster wise. Things are already trending up and with the offensive talent this team has I'd expect a regression closer to the mean in the next quarter.

 

[peter sullivan]

I would see if we could trade a third line, 25 point winger for a two time all-star, 50 point defenceman....

oh wait.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I would see if we could trade a third line, 25 point winger for a two time all-star, 50 point defenceman....

oh wait.

Yep, this.

I realize that much of the Jets scoring trouble comes down to luck, but there's no question that Buff playing at F has neutered their offense somewhat.

 

[KingBogo]

Yep, this.

I realize that much of the Jets scoring trouble comes down to luck, but there's no question that Buff playing at F has neutered their offense somewhat.

I think that ship has sailed with Buff at least in the Jets organization. But who says Buff would score the same way if he bought into a defense only system without the puck as a defenseman. A lot of his offense was generated off aggressive pinches, risky transitions and roving in the offensive end. It generated a lot of offense, but there was a cost defensively. It is a lot harder generating offense from the backend when the focus is on eliminating odd man situations, boxing out players wide and tying to eliminate free looks.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think that ship has sailed with Buff at least in the Jets organization. But who says Buff would score the same way if he bought into a defense only system without the puck as a defenseman. A lot of his offense was generated off aggressive pinches, risky transitions and roving in the offensive end. It generated a lot of offense, but there was a cost defensively. It is a lot harder generating offense from the backend when the focus is on eliminating odd man situations, boxing out players wide and tying to eliminate free looks.

Good take. It's affected Trouba and Bogosian's offense as well. The offense will come as improved forward scoring talent does. I'm hoping that Ehlers guy will help someday *happy thoughts*

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think that ship has sailed with Buff at least in the Jets organization. But who says Buff would score the same way if he bought into a defense only system without the puck as a defenseman. A lot of his offense was generated off aggressive pinches, risky transitions and roving in the offensive end. It generated a lot of offense, but there was a cost defensively. It is a lot harder generating offense from the backend when the focus is on eliminating odd man situations, boxing out players wide and tying to eliminate free looks.

Would PMo have been able to implement his defensive system if his #1 defenseman was still Buff being Buff? There is a reason he has been so adamant from his first day in Winnipeg that Buff would remain at F.

 

[CaptainChef]

I wrote about this a few games ago and we have a thread here:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1780095

The short answer is that there are a ton (but not all) of Jets on very low sh% seasons.

And no, this is not due to the Jets new found commitment to defense... the Jets are shooting far lower than any team has been able to sustain.

Exactly. You couldn't match the number of 2 on 1's and open nets that the Jets have missed this year. You don't turn a bunch of 20 goal scorers (last year) into a bunch of 10 goal scorers. Everyone is snakebitten at this point (plus holding the stick to tightly; aiming for corners, etc).

This scoring drought will rectify itself on its own.

 

[peter sullivan]

I don't think it's only about his points. It's about how he transitions the game from the defensive zone to the attacking zone. The jets miss this in a very big way. He controlled the game from the back. He moved the team forward. Nobody has that ability in his place.

I firmly believe everyone's memory of his defensive play is worse than it actually was. There was no way it was any worse than Clitsome, Pardy or Postma. It's become a caricature in our memories. Give him a real defensive partner like Bogo or Enstrom and what you reap back is far more valuable.

He's wasted as a mediocre forward. On a team that can't score, it seems ludicrous to have one of the best offensive weapons in the NHL voluntarily neutralized.

If they insist on using him as a third line winger, they should trade him. His value to another team as a pk quarterback and offensive force on defence would certainly get a return of a 50 point second line winger.

As I said. You couldn't trade defence Buff for winger Buff, so why did we?

 

[peter sullivan]

^ you're smart.

 

[Ducky10]

Problem solved..................now about that goaltending thingy.