Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2017 - #4

[10Ducky10]

Berdin is a LONG way from the NHL....I thought Phillips was a real up and comer but he didn't have that good of a season last season.

 

[Grind]

Comrie plays the position really well. His puck tracking, rebound control, positioning and athleticism all display at a very high level. He's been stuck behind some of the worst Moose teams I've ever seen, with some of the worst defence cores in front of him. I know you stats guys think goalies are voodoo. It's because goalies can't be quantified with stats, you gotta put the work in actually watch them.

Once you watch them and study their behaviors and habits as goaltenders you can pick out who has the potential to be a good goalie pretty easily. The rest is more behind the scenes stuff. It takes a lot of work, so you have to identify who has the work ethic to improve. Being a goalie is all about routine and dedication, probably moreso than any other position. Does Comrie have that dedication? I don't know but he has the foundation and the fundamentals to be a good goalie. Comparing him to Helle at the same age is tough because Helle has had a different development curve playing in College compared to Comrie being in Junior. I think Comrie is probably a year or two behind. I suspect he probably won't break out until next year or the year after.

I refuse to believe this until I see some sort of listing that I can statistically analyse and objectively translate into proof that such reviews by goalie scouts are strong indicators of success

 

[Grind]

To me goalies are so damn hard because you'd have to develop rating criteria, apply it uniformly, and then also somehow control the exposure and playing circumstances each goalie would get, and then after five or six years you could START reviewing and validating which criteria predicts success.

The lifetime of a scouting staff or gm just doesn't really allow you to ever really build s strong method/system for rating them. Though I suppose third parties could do it...

I feel goalies will forever be a gut/luck of the dice thing save for the very best.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Comrie plays the position really well. His puck tracking, rebound control, positioning and athleticism all display at a very high level. He's been stuck behind some of the worst Moose teams I've ever seen, with some of the worst defence cores in front of him. I know you stats guys think goalies are voodoo. It's because goalies can't be quantified with stats, you gotta put the work in actually watch them.

Once you watch them and study their behaviors and habits as goaltenders you can pick out who has the potential to be a good goalie pretty easily. The rest is more behind the scenes stuff. It takes a lot of work, so you have to identify who has the work ethic to improve. Being a goalie is all about routine and dedication, probably moreso than any other position. Does Comrie have that dedication? I don't know but he has the foundation and the fundamentals to be a good goalie. Comparing him to Helle at the same age is tough because Helle has had a different development curve playing in College compared to Comrie being in Junior. I think Comrie is probably a year or two behind. I suspect he probably won't break out until next year or the year after.

Which is largely irrelevant. It's hilarious that this keeps getting trotted out. The argument goes goalies behind bad defenses struggle because of that. But then by the same token people that are fans of good teams claim their goaltenders struggle stats wise because they don't face a sheer number of shots to help their SVP. We've seen NUMEROUS examples of goalies posting better numbers behind bad defences (Miller, Luongo, etc) as well as goalie who post better numbers behind good defences (Dubnyk, Rask, etc).

This excuse of a bad defense needs to die. In the end, save percentage is largely irrelevant to team strength over the long term.

 

[truck]

Comrie plays the position really well. His puck tracking, rebound control, positioning and athleticism all display at a very high level. He's been stuck behind some of the worst Moose teams I've ever seen, with some of the worst defence cores in front of him. I know you stats guys think goalies are voodoo. It's because goalies can't be quantified with stats, you gotta put the work in actually watch them.

Once you watch them and study their behaviors and habits as goaltenders you can pick out who has the potential to be a good goalie pretty easily. The rest is more behind the scenes stuff. It takes a lot of work, so you have to identify who has the work ethic to improve. Being a goalie is all about routine and dedication, probably moreso than any other position. Does Comrie have that dedication? I don't know but he has the foundation and the fundamentals to be a good goalie. Comparing him to Helle at the same age is tough because Helle has had a different development curve playing in College compared to Comrie being in Junior. I think Comrie is probably a year or two behind. I suspect he probably won't break out until next year or the year after.

Zero NHL teams have found a way to consistently pluck good goalies, let along figure out which goalies with poor numbers are going to be good.

I'm not discounting any of the visual stuff with Comrie, I long cited him as the most athletic in the pipeline and I've heard all the reports about advance puck tracking, but I just don't see it when I watch him.

I've always found comrie to be scrambly and rely too heavily on his athleticism. He's been that way all the way back to junior IMO. He's also relatively small, which doesn't help.

 

[truck]

I refuse to believe this until I see some sort of listing that I can statistically analyse and objectively translate into proof that such reviews by goalie scouts are strong indicators of success

The experts told us that Hutchinson was going to be a starter after his hot start a couple years back. To be fair, I thought he'd be better too.

 

[garret9]

Goalies are voodoo actually came from the fact that any good goalie in the NHL can have a bad season, and vice versa.

I give no credence to the professional eye test on scouting goalies until goaltending drafting success looks less than completely randomly distributed.

 

[truck]

Which is largely irrelevant. It's hilarious that this keeps getting trotted out. The argument goes goalies behind bad defenses struggle because of that. But then by the same token people that are fans of good teams claim their goaltenders struggle stats wise because they don't face a sheer number of shots to help their SVP. We've seen NUMEROUS examples of goalies posting better numbers behind bad defences (Miller, Luongo, etc) as well as goalie who post better numbers behind good defences (Dubnyk, Rask, etc).

This excuse of a bad defense needs to die. In the end, save percentage is largely irrelevant to team strength over the long term.

Two more examples:
Connor Hellebuyck
Ondrej Pavelec
...behind that same Moose defense.

2015-16
Hellebuyck .922
Comrie .907


2016-17
Pavelec .917
Comrie .906
Phillips. 906

It isn't the end for Comrie, but he's gotra start stopping more pucks.

 

[garret9]

Aye, and there is also a difference in what was and will be.

Maybe Comrie rockets up due to his technical and athletic abilities... but until he dominates, I'm not putting him at the top of any list.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Zero NHL teams have found a way to consistently pluck good goalies, let along figure out which goalies with poor numbers are going to be good.

I'm not discounting any of the visual stuff with Comrie, I long cited him as the most athletic in the pipeline and I've heard all the reports about advance puck tracking, but I just don't see it when I watch him.

I've always found comrie to be scrambly and rely too heavily on his athleticism. He's been that way all the way back to junior IMO. He's also relatively small, which doesn't help.

This one I'm not getting. He's decently skinny, but he is tall and takes up alot of net. Same build but bigger than a Ryan Miller for example.

 

[truck]

This one I'm not getting. He's decently skinny, but he is tall and takes up alot of net. Same build but bigger than a Ryan Miller for example.

I would not call him tall relative to his peers. There are few very starters listed at 6'1 or less. Hank, Ward, Budaj Pickard and Greiss... and I'm going to go ahead and say three of them shouldn't be starters.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I would not call him tall relative to his peers. There are few very starters listed at 6'1 or less. Hank, Ward, Budaj Pickard and Greiss... and I'm going to go ahead and say three of them shouldn't be starters.

I really had it in my head that he was 6'4''. Very odd.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Berdin is a LONG way from the NHL....I thought Phillips was a real up and comer but he didn't have that good of a season last season.

Phillips isn't that highly regarded by the Jets, though. Hell, he was only signed after their initial target through free agency was grabbed by the Oilers. He's a long shot to play in the NHL, but then again, most goalies are. He could also surprise and become an adequate journeyman goaltender. Either way, I don't think Phillips sees any position before 15th.

 

[surixon]

Zero NHL teams have found a way to consistently pluck good goalies, let along figure out which goalies with poor numbers are going to be good.

I'm not discounting any of the visual stuff with Comrie, I long cited him as the most athletic in the pipeline and I've heard all the reports about advance puck tracking, but I just don't see it when I watch him.

I've always found comrie to be scrambly and rely too heavily on his athleticism. He's been that way all the way back to junior IMO. He's also relatively small, which doesn't help.

Interesting Truck. In the games I've attended I've never found Comrie to scramble all that much. He's largely been calm and collected in net. Although I think your point about him being smaller than most goalies is an interesting one. Some of the goals I've seen him let in that really just squeze might be due to the fact that if he's a hair off in his technique or positioning he might be giving up more of the bet then a larger goalie who is a hair off.

Also for the record he isn't in my top 5 but I just thought some context was needed on his seasons last year. But onwards and upwards, a certain poster will be happy I'm voting for Poolman next lol.

 

[Jets4Life]

Berdin is a LONG way from the NHL....I thought Phillips was a real up and comer but he didn't have that good of a season last season.

If what I hear about him is true, the Jets should be more militant, or send him back to Russia.

 

[Jets4Life]

Phillips isn't that highly regarded by the Jets, though. Hell, he was only signed after their initial target through free agency was grabbed by the Oilers. He's a long shot to play in the NHL, but then again, most goalies are. He could also surprise and become an adequate journeyman goaltender. Either way, I don't think Phillips sees any position before 15th.

Phillips is 24, and only has a few AHL games to show for it. He is a very long shot.

So lets recall all the goalies the Jets drafted;

2011- Jason Kasdorf #157 Overall: playing in ECHL (25)
2012- Connor Hellebuyck #130 Overall: standout in every league he played, except last season. 24, plenty of time to improve. F88k the haters.
2012- Jamie Phillips #190 overall: ECHL goalie. 24. Veyr long shot to NHL
2013- Eric Comrie #59 overall: Disappointment. Big things expected of him. Has yet to live up to expectations.
2016- Mikhail Berdin #157 overall: Had a good season in the USHL.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

If what I hear about him is true, the Jets should be more militant, or send him back to Russia.

What do you hear about him? Second question: can you verify what you've heard?

 

[truck]

Interesting Truck. In the games I've attended I've never found Comrie to scramble all that much. He's largely been calm and collected in net. Although I think your point about him being smaller than most goalies is an interesting one. Some of the goals I've seen him let in that really just squeze might be due to the fact that if he's a hair off in his technique or positioning he might be giving up more of the bet then a larger goalie who is a hair off.

Also for the record he isn't in my top 5 but I just thought some context was needed on his seasons last year. But onwards and upwards, a certain poster will be happy I'm voting for Poolman next lol.

Perhaps I should clarify. He plays pretty calm in general, but in my viewings he has had to scramble and showcase his wild athleticism a ton. High volumes of acrobatic saves and diving attempts.

 

[Grind]

Goalies are voodoo actually came from the fact that any good goalie in the NHL can have a bad season, and vice versa.

I give no credence to the professional eye test on scouting goalies until goaltending drafting success looks less than completely randomly distributed.

This is pretty much just a more succinct way of putting what I was getting at.

Until I see a better track record of goalie drafting by the league, I avoid making any inferences.


Even when a guy plays as good as hellebuyck did through his minors/NCAA career, I never put him super high. Because in this case stats are just as unreliable as scouting.

 

[Whileee]

Which is largely irrelevant. It's hilarious that this keeps getting trotted out. The argument goes goalies behind bad defenses struggle because of that. But then by the same token people that are fans of good teams claim their goaltenders struggle stats wise because they don't face a sheer number of shots to help their SVP. We've seen NUMEROUS examples of goalies posting better numbers behind bad defences (Miller, Luongo, etc) as well as goalie who post better numbers behind good defences (Dubnyk, Rask, etc).

This excuse of a bad defense needs to die. In the end, save percentage is largely irrelevant to team strength over the long term.

Raw save percentage will soon become as arcane as raw Corsi, I think.

Already a lot of folks are using "adjusted save percentage".

If shot quality is related to shooting percentage, it should be related to save percentage, right?

If there is a difference in terms of shot quality yielded by a team (there is), then that should affect save percentage. Some analyses have shown that save percentage changes by as much as 1% (e.g. from 0.905 to 0.915) when you adjust for shot quality.

I would add that there are other situational dimensions to goalie performance that I don't think have been adequately reflected in statistical methods.

I have no idea whether Comrie's save percentage is affected by shot quality, but the concept is not absurd.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Getting OT with the save percentage debate, so I'm just going to dump this article here (AFAIC it's the best one I've seen on this subject):

http://ingoalmag.com/analysis/high-danger-workload-affect-save-percentage/

Comrie's save percentage is affected by the frequency with which he saves those high quality chances, absolutely.

Is his (or any other goalie's) save percentage directly tied to facing a greater proportion of high quality chances? Who knows, but it sure doesn't appear that way. Perhaps more importantly, who really cares? If he's not up to the task, there are myriad other goalies who just might be.

Lots of (relatively speaking) good and ultimately interchangable goalies out there, not a lot of spots. Stop more pucks, kid.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Comrie plays the position really well. His puck tracking, rebound control, positioning and athleticism all display at a very high level. He's been stuck behind some of the worst Moose teams I've ever seen, with some of the worst defence cores in front of him. I know you stats guys think goalies are voodoo. It's because goalies can't be quantified with stats, you gotta put the work in actually watch them.

Once you watch them and study their behaviors and habits as goaltenders you can pick out who has the potential to be a good goalie pretty easily. The rest is more behind the scenes stuff. It takes a lot of work, so you have to identify who has the work ethic to improve. Being a goalie is all about routine and dedication, probably moreso than any other position. Does Comrie have that dedication? I don't know but he has the foundation and the fundamentals to be a good goalie. Comparing him to Helle at the same age is tough because Helle has had a different development curve playing in College compared to Comrie being in Junior. I think Comrie is probably a year or two behind. I suspect he probably won't break out until next year or the year after.

It's honestly getting harder and harder for me to evaluate goalies lately, and they've been a near-obsession of mine for 25+ years. They're all getting bigger, styles are becoming more uniform, they're getting quality, specialized coaching from a young age, etc. It's not like the old days, where you would have slow, unathletics guys like Tim Cheveldae playing beside acrobatic, quick twitch goalies like Khabibulin, and it was so easy to spot the differences in skill.

Guess what I'm saying is that the goalie eye test is becoming more and more deceptive these days. Raw save percentage is an imperfect way of judging goalie ability, but I'll take it over judging from a small sample of games.

 

[surixon]

Raw save percentage will soon become as arcane as raw Corsi, I think.

Already a lot of folks are using "adjusted save percentage".

If shot quality is related to shooting percentage, it should be related to save percentage, right?

If there is a difference in terms of shot quality yielded by a team (there is), then that should affect save percentage. Some analyses have shown that save percentage changes by as much as 1% (e.g. from 0.905 to 0.915) when you adjust for shot quality.

I would add that there are other situational dimensions to goalie performance that I don't think have been adequately reflected in statistical methods.

I have no idea whether Comrie's save percentage is affected by shot quality, but the concept is not absurd.

I would be very curious to know what Comrie's ES save percentage was last year as in the games I went to he got lit up predominantly on the PK in which the Moose made the Jets look good with the amount of uncontested cross crease passes to wide open players who had half the net to shoot at.

 

[Deif]

I would be very curious to know what Comrie's ES save percentage was last year as in the games I went to he got lit up predominantly on the PK in which the Moose made the Jets look good with the amount of uncontested cross crease passes to wide open players who had half the net to shoot at.

I wrote a long post last night about this but didn't post it. I would also be interested in seein 5v5 sv% numbers for Comrie, as well as high/low/medium danger SV% + shot attempts, rel. to the rest of the AHL.

 

[Evil Little]

The experts told us that Hutchinson was going to be a starter after his hot start a couple years back. To be fair, I thought he'd be better too.

I specifically recall one of Woodley or Balloch going on Winnipeg radio during Hutchinson's hot start and basically saying 'yeah, Hutchinson looks good but Hellebuyck is actually far more likely to have sustained success'.

Those are the types of experts, along with Valiquette and Mercadante, who are still largely high on Comrie and who give me pause when everyone on HF Jets points to his raw sv% and scoffs.