Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2017 - #4

[truck]

It's the AHL bump. Just being in enough GP in the AHL at 20yo, you get a good bump. Something I need to work out the bumps in.

Lipon, Kosmachuk, DeLeo, Olsen, Brassard, etc. posted their best %'s in their first year of AHL.

Lipon actually had a strong season as a rookie. The others didn't IMO.

Nogier did far, far better I anticipated though. His rookie year combined with his skating and the pre-draft possession stats make me think he may become a useful depth player - which is way more than I'd expected previously.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I think next season will be pretty telling for Nogier, the 'good' NHLers with comparable scoring at 20 saw their production almost double at 21.. If he can get up to around .4 PPG next season that would look pretty good.

thought nogier looked good with his jets time. first call up?

 

[surixon]

Lipon actually had a strong season as a rookie. The others didn't IMO.

Nogier did far, far better I anticipated though. His rookie year combined with his skating and the pre-draft possession stats make me think he may become a useful depth player - which is way more than I'd expected previously.

I thought he played well in the rookie camp game. Head up and was looking to make positive plays with the puck. If he can continue to really develop this aspect going this season he may be one of those guys who beats the odds.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

thought nogier looked good with his jets time. first call up?

He was really poor in the advanced stats. Worse than Chiarot or Melchiori. Those guys a well below replacement. If Nogier is higher than probably 10/11th on the depth chart, that is not good. I did not see at the NHL level what others were seeing, he was hurting the Jets out there. In the AHL he did impress me considering expectations.

He did have a strong rookie season considering his mediocre WHL career. In a couple years he might be able to be 8th defenseman. Which is a large improvement from where he was coming out of junior.

 

[truck]

I think Nogier was a quiet good news story for the Jets organization last season. His AHL production wasn't a big step down from his production in the WHL, on a very low-scoring AHL team without PP time. He compares favorably in terms of production to other defensive D like Manson and Forbort. He is a really good skater, and what I noticed about him last season is that he played a sound positional game with good gaps, and retrieved and moved the puck quickly enough. I doubt he'll be anything more than a reliable #6-7 D, but you need some of those in the organization, too.

Nitpicking, but I am not sure there is such a thing as a reliable 6-7. If the player is reliable, the snag a permanent role. I'd say his upside is reliable, with fringe NHLer becoming more likely.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Nitpicking, but I am not sure there is such a thing as a reliable 6-7. If the player is reliable, the snag a permanent role. I'd say his upside is reliable, with fringe NHLer becoming more likely.

We could've had a reliable 6/7 had we kept Postma. :/

But I digress.

 

[portamoral]

I'm not following how exactly did the named best player in his league not have an equal if not better impact to someone who wasn't even the best player at the time on his team? If your going to try to use subjective arguments to support the argument for your player please don't belittle someone else's similiar logical comparison. Also just so that I'm clear are you saying that there is a larger physical gap between a 17 year old Duchene and 19 year Lowry old than there is between an 18 year old McAvoy and a 23 year old Poolman?

i think that could have easily been the case. as far as i know we don't have the in depth advanced stats tracked and put together to the extent we do in the NHL. for example scheifele was the 7th highest PPG player in the entire NHL last season, yet by the underlying numbers he is outside of the top 20 (somewhere around 25 i believe, perreault was higher?) in forwards by overall impact. you can't just compare lowry's points to duchene's and draw a conclusion based on an award.

another example is laine who scored like an elite 1st liner this past season and yet most models show him to be an average 3rd liner in impact if i'm not mistaken. he was even worse at the beginning of the season yet still scored the same. there is lots to consider

to your last point, that's not what i'm saying. i was talking about the NCAA specifically and the gap between poolman and his competition is not what you are making it out to be and shouldn't be compared to the age gaps in the CHL.

 

[truck]

He was really poor in the advanced stats. Worse than Chiarot or Melchiori. Those guys a well below replacement. If Nogier is higher than probably 10/11th on the depth chart, that is not good. I did not see at the NHL level what others were seeing, he was hurting the Jets out there. In the AHL he did impress me considering expectations.

He did have a strong rookie season considering his mediocre WHL career. In a couple years he might be able to be 8th defenseman. Which is a large improvement from where he was coming out of junior.

Aye. He was bad in the NHL. It was the AHL performance that caught my attention. My hope is that he can become useful NHL depth within the next two years.

If I had to make a guess, I suspect Melch, Poolman and Niku will be called up ahead of him this year.

 

[surixon]

He was really poor in the advanced stats. Worse than Chiarot or Melchiori. Those guys a well below replacement. If Nogier is higher than probably 10/11th on the depth chart, that is not good. I did not see at the NHL level what others were seeing, he was hurting the Jets out there. In the AHL he did impress me considering expectations.

He did have a strong rookie season considering his mediocre WHL career. In a couple years he might be able to be 8th defenseman. Which is a large improvement from where he was coming out of junior.

Hey Holden curious where you got your numbers? The numbers I have show them to be fairly equally ineffective.

Cf
Nogier 47.2
Melchiori 46.9
Chariot 45.3
Stuart 44.5
Strait 42.7

Nogier is in the middle with regards to rel CF%.

Granted I'd rather not see anyone of these guys get regular minutes next season.

 

[lanky]

Spacek the Space Cowboy!!!

 

[csk]

He was really poor in the advanced stats. Worse than Chiarot or Melchiori. Those guys a well below replacement. If Nogier is higher than probably 10/11th on the depth chart, that is not good. I did not see at the NHL level what others were seeing, he was hurting the Jets out there. In the AHL he did impress me considering expectations.

He did have a strong rookie season considering his mediocre WHL career. In a couple years he might be able to be 8th defenseman. Which is a large improvement from where he was coming out of junior.

While I agree with your overall sentiment from my eyetest, I think the sample size is to small on the advanced stats to really learn much.

 

[Whileee]

He was really poor in the advanced stats. Worse than Chiarot or Melchiori. Those guys a well below replacement. If Nogier is higher than probably 10/11th on the depth chart, that is not good. I did not see at the NHL level what others were seeing, he was hurting the Jets out there. In the AHL he did impress me considering expectations.

He did have a strong rookie season considering his mediocre WHL career. In a couple years he might be able to be 8th defenseman. Which is a large improvement from where he was coming out of junior.

My assessment was relative to expectation, for a 20 year old D in his first year of pro, playing his first 10 games.

Chiarot and Melchiori are about 5 years older than Nogier, so really no comparison.

Jake Muzzin - first 10 NHL games (age 21) - relCF% = -2.8

Nitpicking, but I am not sure there is such a thing as a reliable 6-7. If the player is reliable, the snag a permanent role. I'd say his upside is reliable, with fringe NHLer becoming more likely.

It depends on the depth of D. On the Jets, the #6 D is one of Enstrom, Myers or Kulikov. What I meant was that I think that I think he has potential to be a #6/7 D on a team with a good defense and can step into a bottom pairing role without the team losing much. Just about every team needs to run 7 D deep, given the injuries that are expected.

 

[Runforthecup]

voted poolman based on his breakout passing. would add nogier.

 

[Jets4Life]

How can Comrie be receiving so many votes? He's barely an AHL starter, and his states aren't even impressive. Comrie is a career 0.906% average in the AHL. Am I missing something? It's highly unlikely he will ever see much action in the NHL.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Hey Holden curious where you got your numbers? The numbers I have show them to be fairly equally ineffective.

Cf
Nogier 47.2
Melchiori 46.9
Chariot 45.3
Stuart 44.5
Strait 42.7

Nogier is in the middle with regards to rel CF%.

Granted I'd rather not see anyone of these guys get regular minutes next season.

I was going off memory. I thought he had a worse effect on teammates than Chiarot and Melchiori I thought? Idk, I'd have to look into it, but it's not really worth it. As you say none of these guys should be in the NHL anyways, unfortunately we just gave one of them at least twice his worth in a contract.

 

[truck]

How can Comrie be receiving so many votes? He's barely an AHL starter, and his states aren't even impressive. Comrie is a career 0.906% average in the AHL. Am I missing something? It's highly unlikely he will ever see much action in the NHL.

I don't get it either to be honest. Goalies are voodoo + bad numbers in consecutive AHL seasons makes me very, very nervous. Granted, I've never ranked him high.

 

[truck]

Updated Garret's list:

1 Connor 67.4%
2 Roslovic 58.0%
3 Vesalainen 55.6%
4 Samberg 8.9% (USHS is not a great league for modelling)
5 Niku 20.0%
6 Poolman 20.0%
7 Spacek 21.0%
8 Kovacevic 20.2%
9 Comrie NA
10 Lemieux 22.3%
11 Foley 18.6%
12 Virtanen 17.7% (SSS)
13 Gawanke 16.5%
14 DeLeo 21.1%
15 Appleton 14.4%
16 Harkins 12.3%
17 Green 10.3%
18 Stanley 8.3%
19 Berdin NA
20 Nogier 22.1%
21 McKenzie 13.1%
22 Evingson NA (NAHL is like USHS, not very model friendly)
23 Lipon 12.9%
24 Lodge 13.5%
25 Franklin 2.7%
26 Cederholm 7.7%
27 Kraskovsky 7.4%
28 Stallard 10.0%
29 Glover 2.0%
30 Holm NA

I'm harsh on goalies, because they are voodoo.
I try to mix upside and safety, eye test and numbers, but it's hard. I'd be not surprised if I change this quite a bit as we go through the voting.

I like this list...

I'm going to have to formulate a first draft.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

He was really poor in the advanced stats. Worse than Chiarot or Melchiori. Those guys a well below replacement. If Nogier is higher than probably 10/11th on the depth chart, that is not good. I did not see at the NHL level what others were seeing, he was hurting the Jets out there. In the AHL he did impress me considering expectations.

He did have a strong rookie season considering his mediocre WHL career. In a couple years he might be able to be 8th defenseman. Which is a large improvement from where he was coming out of junior.

Jets rarely lose when Nioger in lineup. 10 for 12 or something. Is nogier Irish?

 

[Jets4Life]

I don't get it either to be honest. Goalies are voodoo + bad numbers in consecutive AHL seasons makes me very, very nervous. Granted, I've never ranked him high.

I know Comrie is only 22, but being drafted so high, and performing at such a mediocre level in the minors, one must conclude he may be a disappointment. I am more curious as to how 19 year old Mikhail Berdin is doing. He had an excellent year in the USHL, and what his plans are in 2017-18?

 

[Deif]

How can Comrie be receiving so many votes? He's barely an AHL starter, and his states aren't even impressive. Comrie is a career 0.906% average in the AHL. Am I missing something? It's highly unlikely he will ever see much action in the NHL.

Everyone knows the numbers. People are projecting him to be a future NHL starter based on his current athleticsm, he draws great reviews from people with in depth knowledge about the goaltender position. I am not saying the numbers are wrong (they aren't), just that the reason he is getting votes is a non statistical reason.

I know Comrie is only 22, but being drafted so high, and performing at such a mediocre level in the minors, one must conclude he may be a disappointment. I am more curious as to how 19 year old Mikhail Berdin is doing. He had an excellent year in the USHL, and what his plans are in 2017-18?

Chevy said the plan was for Berdin to go to the USHL next season. He did not attend development camp a few weeks ago, the Jets did not say why. Garret told us (he must have heard from someone within the organization) that he is injured, but he was posting pictures on instagram on vacation with what looked like his girlfriend and some friends.

 

[Boreal]

Sami Niku. I think we hit a homerun. Relatively speaking of course. To select that late in the draft and have a guy who now looks to be working towards being a legit NHLer is huge.

 

[truck]

Sami Niku. I think we hit a homerun. Relatively speaking of course. To select that late in the draft and have a guy who now looks to be working towards being a legit NHLer is huge.

The Jets have yet to hit big any anyone beyond round 1. They have nabbed some nie depth pieces in Lowry and Copp, but no homeruns.

I'm hoping Hellebuyck will be one, but they are bound to find another eventually - something like a top 6 forward or top 4 defender.

 

[Daximus]

Everyone knows the numbers. People are projecting him to be a future NHL starter based on his current athleticsm, he draws great reviews from people with in depth knowledge about the goaltender position. I am not saying the numbers are wrong (they aren't), just that the reason he is getting votes is a non statistical reason.

Comrie plays the position really well. His puck tracking, rebound control, positioning and athleticism all display at a very high level. He's been stuck behind some of the worst Moose teams I've ever seen, with some of the worst defence cores in front of him. I know you stats guys think goalies are voodoo. It's because goalies can't be quantified with stats, you gotta put the work in actually watch them.

Once you watch them and study their behaviors and habits as goaltenders you can pick out who has the potential to be a good goalie pretty easily. The rest is more behind the scenes stuff. It takes a lot of work, so you have to identify who has the work ethic to improve. Being a goalie is all about routine and dedication, probably moreso than any other position. Does Comrie have that dedication? I don't know but he has the foundation and the fundamentals to be a good goalie. Comparing him to Helle at the same age is tough because Helle has had a different development curve playing in College compared to Comrie being in Junior. I think Comrie is probably a year or two behind. I suspect he probably won't break out until next year or the year after.

 

[Jets4Life]

Chevy said the plan was for Berdin to go to the USHL next season. He did not attend development camp a few weeks ago, the Jets did not say why. Garret told us (he must have heard from someone within the organization) that he is injured, but he was posting pictures on instagram on vacation with what looked like his girlfriend and some friends.

Not a good sign.

 

[10Ducky10]

Is mid to late 2nd round a high pick for a goalie? Comrie had a poor D in front of him last season and then half of them got called up to the Jets. I'd like to see how he does with a better team in front of him. I was hoping Stu ended up on the Moose but I guess not.

Nogier starts in the NHL by the 2019-2020 season...

Lemieux really has to up his game this year...even if he never plays for the Jets, we still did pretty good in that trade. Their fans want Bogo gone yesterday and it seems just over half want Kane traded and the rest want him re-signed...If Roslo makes the team and centers MP and Armia, I think Armia gets 40 points...the trouble is, I doubt Roslo starts with the Jets.