Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2017 - #3

[Inflict]

Vesalainen pretty easily. He's the player with the highest potential from the rest of the pack and would probably be a 3rd line player at worst.

 

[Polar Vortex]

People? He's got 1 vote so far & only 1 vote in the #2 poll.

Its clearly Logan himself

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It was only a very short time ago that Poolman was being penciled in to the Jets starting lineup. Injury recovery and the acquisition of Kulikov have pushed that back but he is still probably the first callup.

How is he not the 3rd prospect?

I'm not ready to give up on Comrie but he hasn't yet shown any sign of being able to play at the NHL level. Not sure if he makes the top 10, much less top 3.

 

[dabizz]

It was only a very short time ago that Poolman was being penciled in to the Jets starting lineup. Injury recovery and the acquisition of Kulikov have pushed that back but he is still probably the first callup.

How is he not the 3rd prospect?

I'm not ready to give up on Comrie but he hasn't yet shown any sign of being able to play at the NHL level. Not sure if he makes the top 10, much less top 3.

X2 on Comrie. The love for him doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I get that the Moose haven't been great but he's been a big part of that too. Just not consistent enough.

As for Poolman garnering little interest so far I would assume that most people are taking a look at upside as opposed to immediate readiness to compete. I think his floor is likely as a top 4 AHLer and his ceiling as a 5/6 guy in his prime. 24 in a couple days is the big reason I see his top end as that low and a double shoulder surgery doesn't help.

For what it's worth I have Poolman at 9 and Comrie at 11

 

[Grind]

As Garret mentioned poolman probably is a garaunteed NHL player in many people's minds, but for example, would you trade vesalainin or the 24th overall pick for a 25 year old third pairing dman?

Of course a bird in hand is worth more then two in the bush, but at some point the potential for more does outweigh the certainty of less

 

[Jets4Life]

Harkins

Add Foley

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Slaughter me now but I voted Vesalainen the whole way through, I thinks he's got the highest ceiling.. But I think that's just me liking the brand new shiny toy that just got added to a great collection...

 

[Daximus]

Slaughter me now but I voted Vesalainen the whole way through, I thinks he's got the highest ceiling.. But I think that's just me liking the brand new shiny toy that just got added to a great collection...

I don't think he has Connor potential. Connor has pretty much killed every level he's played at up to this point, besides the NHL.

 

[Whileee]

I don't think he has Connor potential. Connor has pretty much killed every level he's played at up to this point, besides the NHL.

Yup, and I think Connor will soon be excelling in the NHL.

 

[Whileee]

We weren't talking about the graphic being examples of specific outcomes.

We were using a graphic as an exaggerated visualization showing how a player can have higher upside, but could still a lower or higher average expected outcomes. And nothing else.

I made it on a paint program in under 30s on a laptop touch pad while talking on the phone to a player agent... of course it isn't going to be remotely accurate haha. I mean, the curves have different volumes underneath!

As an aside: Boom or bust though would be something different, where you'd see two apexes to the curves, no?

Understood. My point is that I'm not sure if I am convinced about the higher ceiling lower average expected outcome. Isn't a higher ceiling player just better, and therefore also has a higher average outcome?

Yes, boom or "bust" would probably have two apexes, but it might look rude if you drew it on your Paint program...

Curves could have different volumes if they were absolute values and not proportionate distributions.

Yours pedantically, W.

 

[garret9]

Understood. My point is that I'm not sure if I am convinced about the higher ceiling lower average expected outcome. Isn't a higher ceiling player just better, and therefore also has a higher average outcome?

Yes, boom or "bust" would probably have two apexes, but it might look rude if you drew it on your Paint program...😉

Curves could have different volumes if they were absolute values and not proportionate distributions.

Yours pedantically, W.

At the same age, I'd say probably yes, but at different ages I wouldn't agree. As they get older you probably move from a negative kurtosis to a more positive kurtosis. The player's potential ceiling and floor shrinks.
Players with greater unknown could still have a higher max possible outcome with a high spread of outcomes but still lower average expected outcome.

Whether or not skewed, especially positively skewed, distribution players exists is another matter.

Ya, there's no y-axis to know about that. No way to show I was talking about probability despite talking about probability.

 

[Whileee]

At the same age, I'd say probably yes, but at different ages I wouldn't agree. As they get older you probably move from a negative kurtosis to a more positive kurtosis. The player's potential ceiling and floor shrinks.
Players with greater unknown could still have a higher max possible outcome with a high spread of outcomes but still lower average expected outcome.

Whether or not skewed, especially positively skewed, distribution players exists is another matter.

Ya, there's no y-axis to know about that. No way to show I was talking about probability despite talking about probability.

Good point about the ages... I like that.

 

[SLAYER]

Vesalainen - add Green.

 

[garret9]

Who wants to know Garret's ripoff PCS v-0.0 (aka very much still being worked on with massive improvements needed) on the Jets prospects?

 

[Channelcat]

I'm not ready to write Comrie off

It would be nice if we didn't destroy every goaltender who came through this org.

 

[Grind]

Who wants to know Garret's ripoff PCS v-0.0 (aka very much still being worked on with massive improvements needed) on the Jets prospects?

Oooooh I do I do! I want to compare and then hate myself for small discrepancies.

I do have a question for you Garret. When you do these, do you do the programming yourself and if so what are you using?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

X2 on Comrie. The love for him doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I get that the Moose haven't been great but he's been a big part of that too. Just not consistent enough.

As for Poolman garnering little interest so far I would assume that most people are taking a look at upside as opposed to immediate readiness to compete. I think his floor is likely as a top 4 AHLer and his ceiling as a 5/6 guy in his prime. 24 in a couple days is the big reason I see his top end as that low and a double shoulder surgery doesn't help.

For what it's worth I have Poolman at 9 and Comrie at 11

I have Poolman as almost a certainty to make the NHL. That trumps a lot of higher upside but much less likely to make the NHL at all. IMO, of course.

 

[Boreal]

Vesalainen. The believed upside is significantly higher than anybody else on the list, even if he is further away from the Jets' roster than some others.

After Vesalainen, there are no more high end prospects left in my opinion. Some very good ones, however.

 

[Whileee]

Who wants to know Garret's ripoff PCS v-0.0 (aka very much still being worked on with massive improvements needed) on the Jets prospects?

I'd be very interested. I've been wondering if this group might pose some challenges...

Vesalainen - strong d-1, d-2 numbers, then a struggle in his first pro season in draft year.

Samberg - High school with a small sample oh USHL.

Virtanen - Injured most of his draft season.

Kovacevic and McKenzie overage, with one strong season in their draft year.

 

[jetsforever]

Comrie. Add Green.

 

[garret9]

I'd be very interested. I've been wondering if this group might pose some challenges...

Vesalainen - strong d-1, d-2 numbers, then a struggle in his first pro season in draft year.

Samberg - High school with a small sample oh USHL.

Virtanen - Injured most of his draft season.

Kovacevic and McKenzie overage, with one strong season in their draft year.

Ya you're never going to get a good model out of USHS because it has multiple tiers and I have no way to historically solve that.

 

[GJF]

Voted Vesalainen for upside.

Comrie needs to put up better AHL numbers before we can place him higher than 5-6 IMO.

Poolman might be a sure fit to be an NHL player already but upside gives Vesa the advantage. I'm personally not that high on Harkins compared to a lot of other people around here.

Therefore: Vesa

 

[Aavco Cup]

Who wants to know Garret's ripoff PCS v-0.0 (aka very much still being worked on with massive improvements needed) on the Jets prospects?

Sounds like you want to tell?
I'm interested. I'm sure there are others

 

[Aavco Cup]

Who wants to know Garret's ripoff PCS v-0.0 (aka very much still being worked on with massive improvements needed) on the Jets prospects?

Sounds like you want to tell?
I'm interested. I'm sure there are others

 

[Bob E]

Sounds like you want to tell?
I'm interested. I'm sure there are others

Nah. I'm good.