Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2017 - #3

[bumblebeeman]

After this one it gets interesting

 

[Deif]

Vesalainen

Add Foley

 

[truck]

Voted Vesalainen based on upside.

Leaning towards Niku next. I think he'll play NHL hockey on the second pair.

There aren't any sure bets left.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Vesa for me by a bit of a landslide.

Gets really interesting for me after this one

Also I still bhave hard time reconciling why some are so high on Coming?

Agree with both of these statements.

Add Green.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Goalies are voodoo....... and he already has 14 votes in the #3 prospect poll. (always going to have goalie lovers in the bunch) I would think that the majority of the 47 voters at this time picking Vesalaine are going to be smart enough to pick one of the better skater prospects and Comrie will fall to after #6 top prospect.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I find it interesting that the guy who has proven the most as a pro (De Leo) hasn't received a single vote.

Not that I believe there's any case for him at #3, just saying.

 

[Romang67]

Vesa, add Kovacevic.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Voted Vesalainen because of shiny new toy syndrome, and his ceiling should be much higher than anybody else listed there, with the exception of Spacek.

I find it interesting that the guy who has proven the most as a pro (De Leo) hasn't received a single vote.

Not that I believe there's any case for him at #3, just saying.

DeLeo isn't the sexy pick right now. I believe he's top 10 in the organization, but he won't receive a vote until Niku, Spacek, and Vesalainen are out of the way.

 

[janneydraketkachuk]

I'll be interested to see where samberg ends up.

 

[Daximus]

Voted Vesalainen because of shiny new toy syndrome, and his ceiling should be much higher than anybody else listed there, with the exception of Spacek.



DeLeo isn't the sexy pick right now. I believe he's top 10 in the organization, but he won't receive a vote until Niku, Spacek, and Vesalainen are out of the way.

I love De Leo's game but he doesn't scream top 6 upside to me. More like a bottom 6 depth scorer/two way player. I agree that Spacek has similar upside to Vesalainen.

 

[Skiffer55]

Add Green

 

[garret9]

Interesting people have Comrie at 3, when I don't have him about 5ish spots later.

 

[antiqueslivers]

Voted for harkins! I think the guy needs one more year maaaaybe 2. Ugh though have to admit didn't consider vesalainen....

 

[HannuJ]

Poolman seems like a safe bet. Vasaline has higher upside but less certainty.

this.
i'd split my vote between Poolman and Comrie.
no idea how anyone can vote for Ves. he's at least 2 years away. Poolman's arguably the first injury recall

 

[garret9]

this.
i'd split my vote between Poolman and Comrie.
no idea how anyone can vote for Ves. he's at least 2 years away. Poolman's arguably the first injury recall

 

[Hammer Slammer]

this.
i'd split my vote between Poolman and Comrie.
no idea how anyone can vote for Ves. he's at least 2 years away. Poolman's arguably the first injury recall

Just because he's the first injury recall doesn't mean he's the better prospect overall

He is 6 years older than Vesalainen. Imagine where Vesa might be in 6 years?

 

[garret9]

Just a quick drawing and very much over emphasized, but this shows three players:

1) A safe NHL bet (red)
2) A more unknown player with high upside but risk of being worse than red (blue)
3) A more unknown player with high upside but risk of being worse than red (green)

The difference between blue and green is that blue has a high chance of hitting upside, while green has a low chance of hitting that ceiling.

So, I see Vesalainen being more along the lines of that blue curve, and Poolman more like the red curve. Vesalainen could end up worse, and he's both a more unknown factor and not ready for the NHL.
That said, I view Poolman better than Luke Green, who I have as having a higher upside than Poolman but the risk of him not being better is large enough that he'd be more like the green curve (totally coincidental until I just typed out this hahah).

 

[JetsFan815]

Vesalainen.

Please add Green

 

[Whileee]

Just a quick drawing and very much over emphasized, but this shows three players:

1) A safe NHL bet (red)
2) A more unknown player with high upside but risk of being worse than red (blue)
3) A more unknown player with high upside but risk of being worse than red (green)

The difference between blue and green is that blue has a high chance of hitting upside, while green has a low chance of hitting that ceiling.

So, I see Vesalainen, I view him more of along the lines of that blue curve, and Poolman more like the red curve. Vesalainen could end up worse, and he's both a more unknown factor and not ready for the NHL.
That said, I view Poolman better than Luke Green, who I have as having a higher upside than Poolman but the risk of him not being better is large enough that he'd be more like the green curve (totally coincidental until I just typed out this hahah).

Not sure I agree with the shape of those curves. I think a lot of those with higher "elite" potential also have a higher probability of being an "average" NHLer than many of those with only "average" ceilings.

 

[garret9]

Not sure I agree with the shape of those curves. I think a lot of those with higher "elite" potential also have a higher probability of being an "average" NHLer than many of those with only "average" ceilings.

Whileee, there's being pedantic, and then there is ignoring the disclaimer...

Just a quick drawing and very much over emphasized

 

[Whileee]

The fun will really start when we start comparing D prospects like Green and Stanley...

 

[Whileee]

Whileee, there's being pedantic, and then there is ignoring the disclaimer...

Pedantic? Moi?

But do you agree that a lot of those with "elite" potential also have higher probability of an "average" outcome? I don't think it's strictly "pedantic" when we are sorting through prospects. For me, Vesalainen doesn't have a reduced probability of an "average" NHL outcome because he has some "elite" potential. I'm not convinced with the "boom or bust" notion with prospects. It's an interesting topic.

 

[garret9]

Pedantic? Moi?

But do you agree that a lot of those with "elite" potential also have higher probability of an "average" outcome? I don't think it's strictly "pedantic" when we are sorting through prospects. For me, Vesalainen doesn't have a reduced probability of an "average" NHL outcome because he has some "elite" potential. I'm not convinced with the "boom or bust" notion with prospects. It's an interesting topic.

We weren't talking about the graphic being examples of specific outcomes.

We were using a graphic as an exaggerated visualization showing how a player can have higher upside, but could still a lower or higher average expected outcomes. And nothing else.

I made it on a paint program in under 30s on a laptop touch pad while talking on the phone to a player agent... of course it isn't going to be remotely accurate haha. I mean, the curves have different volumes underneath!

As an aside: Boom or bust though would be something different, where you'd see two apexes to the curves, no?

 

[Grind]

We weren't talking about the graphic being examples of specific outcomes.

We were using a graphic as an exaggerated visualization showing how a player can have higher upside, but could still a lower or higher average expected outcomes. And nothing else.

I made it on a paint program in under 30s on a laptop touch pad while talking on the phone to a player agent... of course it isn't going to be remotely accurate haha. I mean, the curves have different volumes underneath!

As an aside: Boom or bust though would be something different, where you'd see two apexes to the curves, no?

Totally off topic but in any of your models have you actually found boom or bust guys?

After 3 years of drafts our obviously inferior model did finally start identifying guys with lower probabilities of success but with high avg production for those that did make it in this last draft (can't remember but I think Yamamoto was one).

 

[Guilty Party]

Voted Vesalainen because of shiny new toy syndrome, and his ceiling should be much higher than anybody else listed there, with the exception of Spacek.



DeLeo isn't the sexy pick right now. I believe he's top 10 in the organization, but he won't receive a vote until Niku, Spacek, and Vesalainen are out of the way.

In my mind, I had DeLeo slotted below Kosmachuk and that ship has sailed. I'm not sure where DeLeo slots for me now.