Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2015 - #15

[Hank Chinaski]

1. Nikolaj Ehlers, RW/LW, Halifax (QMJHL)

84.8% of vote (Petan 9.5%, Hellebuyck 3.8%)

2. Connor Hellebuyck, G, St. John's (AHL)

29.1% of vote (Petan 26.0%, Connor 22.0%)

3. Josh Morrissey, D, Kelowna (WHL)

Won tiebreaker (59.3% of vote) vs. Nic Petan

4. Nic Petan, C/LW, Portland (WHL)

Lost tiebreaker (40.7% of vote) vs. Josh Morrissey

5. Kyle Connor, C, Youngstown (USHL)

86.6% of vote (Armia 11.3%)

6. Joel Armia, RW, St. John's (AHL)

65.2% of vote (Roslovic 13.4%, Chiarot 4.5%)

7. Jack Roslovic, C/RW, U.S. National U18 Team (USDP)

41.5% of vote (Chiarot 15.3%, Harkins 11.9%)

8. Jansen Harkins, C, Prince George (WHL)

35.0% of vote (Comrie 19.0%, Lemieux 15.0%)

9. Eric Comrie, G, Tri-City (WHL)

33.9% of vote (Chiarot 30.4%, Lemieux 17.0%)

10. Ben Chiarot, D, Winnipeg (NHL)

51.9% of vote (Lemieux 16.0%, Copp 13.2%)

11. Andrew Copp, C, U. of Michigan (NCAA)

40.2% of vote (Lemieux 28.6%, Kosmachuk 12.5%)

12. Jan Kostalek, D, Rimouski (QMJHL)

31.7% of vote (Lemieux 28.5%, Kosmachuk 24.4%)

13. Brendan Lemieux, LW, Barrie (OHL)

44.2% of vote (Kosmachuk 41.4%, Spacek 4.8%)

14. Scott Kosmachuk, RW, St. John's (AHL)

70.8% of vote (Spacek 11.2%)

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[Whileee]

Still Kraskovsky for me, until he's off the board.

 

[Jets4Life]

Erik Foley

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Still Kraskovsky for me, until he's off the board.

Spacek is an easy pick for me at this pont. Things start getting murky after that, but I look at all the names left and feel like Kraskovsky probably has the highest upside.

 

[Jets]

Spacek is an easy pick for me at this pont. Things start getting murky after that, but I look at all the names left and feel like Kraskovsky probably has the highest upside.

Spacek here, then there's De Leo, Kraskovsky, Kitchton, Lipon, Fowler, Niku, Karlstrom that could all deserve votes, with only 5 spots left...

 

[Jets4Life]

Was Spacek more impressive than Foley at training camp? I'm just wondering why he is getting more votes, considering Foley went in the 3rd round and Spacek went in the 4th.

 

[truck]

Voted Foley, but it was a toss up between him, De Leo and Spacek

 

[Holden Caulfield]

All longer shot prospects here so I'm taking the guy with the highest upside of the guys left. Jack Glover.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Was Spacek more impressive than Foley at training camp? I'm just wondering why he is getting more votes, considering Foley went in the 3rd round and Spacek went in the 4th.

Future Considerations, ISS Hockey and Hockeyprospect.com all had Spacek ranked higher. Not that I necessarily put much stock in those rankings, but it's something to consider.

Could be wrong, but I just get the impression that Spacek has more offensive upside than Foley.

 

[truck]

All longer shot prospects here so I'm taking the guy with the highest upside of the guys left. Jack Glover.

I still don't get the fuss with Glover. Never did. I am hopeful, but I don't see special skills.

Spacek would get my upside vote. Niku would get my upside vote on the back end.

 

[Bob E]

I think Poolman will play with Moose, and will get a few games with the Jets.

I'm not sure the others left will see the ice in an NHL game with Jets.

 

[jetsforever]

Spacek, add Olsen I guess

Does Telegin count? Seems like a long shot but he's pretty good.

 

[Whileee]

I still think Kraskovsky is being underrated. I think his upside is higher than others at this point. Glover might also fit in that category but hard to tell based on such limited exposure.

 

[truck]

I think Poolman will play with Moose, and will get a few games with the Jets.

I'm not sure the others left will see the ice in an NHL game with Jets.

Interesting that you take that stance when a few of the other guys already have pro contracts.

You may well be right, but there is a chance that Pool man won't ever play a pro game for the Jets while Kichton, Lodge, Lipon and De Leo are sure things - at least in the AHL.

 

[Inflict]

De Leo. Has the best offensive instincts of the remaining prospects after Kitchton. Spacek is an intriguing prospect, but De Leo has proven himself far more than Spacek has at this point.

 

[Inflict]

I still don't get the fuss with Glover. Never did. I am hopeful, but I don't see special skills.

Spacek would get my upside vote. Niku would get my upside vote on the back end.

Even though Glover didn't offer much this past season, he was actually fairly decent in his draft year. On the USDP, he was 4th in D-men scoring behind Hanafin and Werenski. It will be intriguing to watch him this year to see how he performs in a more prominent role.

 

[truck]

Even though Glover didn't offer much this past season, he was actually fairly decent in his draft year. On the USDP, he was 4th in D-men scoring behind Hanafin and Werenski. It will be intriguing to watch him this year to see how he performs in a more prominent role.

I am curious and hopeful too.

 

[Romang67]

Going with De Leo. Could really go with a lot of prospects here though.

 

[garret9]

Was Spacek more impressive than Foley at training camp? I'm just wondering why he is getting more votes, considering Foley went in the 3rd round and Spacek went in the 4th.

The Jets Nation, Canucks Army, and NHL Numbers draft rankings had Spacek at 25th overall.

Looking back afterwards we mostly agreed he should have been moved back a bit, but only to early or mid 30s max.

Jets draft picks were ranked by us as:
Connor (17) - 7th
Roslovic (25) - 21st
Harkins (47) - 22nd
Foley (78) - NR
Spacek (108) - 25th

So ya... Prior to the draft, I ranked Spacek 23rd. So ya, I'm high on Spacek.

 

[CanWin]

Poolman.

 

[garret9]

I honestly think Kichton is being overly ignored, mostly due to the situation that is the Jets defensive depth on the right side.

He still has quite the offensive edge and has performed excellent in the AHL.

 

[truck]

I honestly think Kichton is being overly ignored, mostly due to the situation that is the Jets defensive depth on the right side.

He still has quite the offensive edge and has performed excellent in the AHL.

I am not convinced that his ceiling is anything better than a situational 3rd pairing D. I would love to see more, just not sure it is there.

 

[garret9]

I am not convinced that his ceiling is anything better than a situational 3rd pairing D. I would love to see more, just not sure it is there.

27% of players with Kichton's scoring numbers and height at 22 made the NHL.
The pt/gp of his cohorts works out to 25 points in an 82 game season.

That was his bad year.
The year prior it was 50% and 28 points per 82 GP.

I still see some potential in him, although his skating likely puts him at the under than the over.

Also, remember the impact of a 3rd-pair regular defender is slightly more than that of a 3rd line forward, which many of these guys may never become.

 

[garret9]

Spacek's closest NHL cohorts in era-adjusted scoring, age, and height:

17.48-year-old season in CZECH (25% PCS, 48.7 P/82)
Jiri Tlusty
Patrick Elias
Vaclav Varada
Robert Kron
Martin Havlat

17.48-year-old season in Czech U20 <warning 5 GP sample> (10% PCS, 60 P/82)
Ondrej Palat
David Krejci

16.48-year-old season Czech U20 (13% PCS, 48.3 P/82)
Ondrej Palat
Jiri Tlusty
David Krejci


Summary:
* Spacek scored very similar to Palat and Krejci in Czech junior
* Spacek scored very similar to Tlusty and Elias in Czech pro
* Those players are likely his reasonable ceilings
* Spacek has scored at a pace similar to a pool of players where 10-25% of that pool has made the NHL, which is a good range for a second round talent.

 

[scelaton]

The Jets Nation, Canucks Army, and NHL Numbers draft rankings had Spacek at 25th overall.

Looking back afterwards we mostly agreed he should have been moved back a bit, but only to early or mid 30s max.

Jets draft picks were ranked by us as:
Connor (17) - 7th
Roslovic (25) - 21st
Harkins (47) - 22nd
Foley (78) - NR
Spacek (108) - 25th

So ya... Prior to the draft, I ranked Spacek 23rd. So ya, I'm high on Spacek.

Me too, I have him in our top-10prospects.

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