Prospect Info: Winnipeg Jets Prospects Thread 2018-19 - Part II

[Board Bard]

xGoal RAPM per hour over past 3 seasons combined:
Lowry +0.35
Copp +0.32

Corsi RAPM per hour over past 3 seasons combined:
Lowry +5.0
Copp +4.6

That's almost identical... So models seem to suggest it's more that they both work well as they are both just really good.

Would be interesting to see how those numbers shake out on a with and without you split. Is one better than the other when they're apart? Does that matter?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree, but I don't think Mo is on the same page.

Yes .... or no, he isn't. There is no sign that he has ever considered the possibility.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Number 27 out of 31 not to bad.

2019 Organizational Prospect Rankings 31-21 - Last Word on Hockey

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Number 27 out of 31 not to bad.

2019 Organizational Prospect Rankings 31-21 - Last Word on Hockey

Meh, they're just pissed off at us because we crapped on their guy's evaluation of Morrissey.

 

[ps241]

It is also frustrating.

Yea when you look at all fan bases on HFBoards it’s crazy how much coaches drive their fan bases nuts. It just feels like they all over value the hell out of tenure/veterans. They prefer bad but predictably bad as opposed to young and clearly more talented.

It’s really the dog whistle effect. Because of access to the room they perceive something all humans can’t see, hear, or measure?

Only coaches and the old school Ted Baxster Mimbo graduates from broadcast school that call PBP align on the belief that all things veteran are better.

I call it Veteranitis.

 

[garret9]

Would be interesting to see how those numbers shake out on a with and without you split. Is one better than the other when they're apart? Does that matter?

Short version:
They are RAPM adjusted so it (mostly) accounts for the mins they play together and apart. Think of it as a super WOWY that also includes competition and other factors.

Long version:
RAPM is a regression model used to solve all sets of shifts with 10 unique players (plus other variables added) and the results that occurred over that shift.
So you have one shift of 5v5 and the home team is +2 xG and then you have one player on home team switch for a new player and the team goes +1 over that time frame, you'd get two shifts:
aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + eX5 - zY1 - yY2 - xY3 - wY4 - vY5 = +2
aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + fX6 - zY1 - yY2 - xY3 - wY4 - vY5 = +1
What RAPM does is take every single shift of unique 10 man units like the two you have above, and then solves for these factors. Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM's god father) just solved using regular least squares mean. Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus merely uses ridge regression as opposed to least squares mean.
Ridge regression is a Bayesian filter which makes up for some issues with LSM.

 

[Board Bard]

Short version:
They are RAPM adjusted so it (mostly) accounts for the mins they play together and apart. Think of it as a super WOWY that also includes competition and other factors.

Long version:
RAPM is a regression model used to solve all sets of shifts with 10 unique players (plus other variables added) and the results that occurred over that shift.
So you have one shift of 5v5 and the home team is +2 xG and then you have one player on home team switch for a new player and the team goes +1 over that time frame, you'd get two shifts:
aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + eX5 - zY1 - yY2 - xY3 - wY4 - vY5 = +2
aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + fX6 - zY1 - yY2 - xY3 - wY4 - vY5 = +1
What RAPM does is take every single shift of unique 10 man units like the two you have above, and then solves for these factors. Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM's god father) just solved using regular least squares mean. Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus merely uses ridge regression as opposed to least squares mean.
Ridge regression is a Bayesian filter which makes up for some issues with LSM.

Thanks.

 

[Rheged]

Off to a bit of a slow start but still scoring some goals at least.

 

[dave_no]

Any information on the return of Peyton Krebs?

 

[Whileee]

Off to a bit of a slow start but still scoring some goals at least.

Has scored a few from far. Must have a decent shot.

 

[kylbaz]

Just a happy reminder that according to Emmanuel Perry's model the Jets have 3 of the top 34 drafted defensive prospects in terms of overall value... Prospects and Draft

Samberg at #23, Niku at #25 and Heinola at #34.

I haven't been following much lately, what's Samberg's story/timeline?

 

[Whileee]

I haven't been following much lately, what's Samberg's story/timeline?

One more year in college and then joins the Jets at the end of his season, time permitting. I think he could have made the Jets this season. Maurice alluded to Poolman going back to college for an extra season as delaying his development a bit. I wonder if it was also an issue with Samberg, with the Jets thinking it would have been better for him to turn pro this year.

 

[KingBogo]

One more year in college and then joins the Jets at the end of his season, time permitting. I think he could have made the Jets this season. Maurice alluded to Poolman going back to college for an extra season as delaying his development a bit. I wonder if it was also an issue with Samberg, with the Jets thinking it would have been better for him to turn pro this year.

Samberg is a good deal younger than Poolman was when he went back to college. I went back and found this little snip-it and IMO which i think frames his decision well.

ESPN analyst Chris Peters talks Winnipeg Jets prospect Dylan Samberg | Illegal Curve Hockey

I believed all along the kid would prefer playing in the NCAA and getting his education over grinding out a season in the AHL and won't jump until he feels like he is ready to jump right into the lineup. As it turns out the conditions it may have been this year but that was an unknown in early summer when he made his commitment to UMD. Agreed the real opportunity to get him signed is if there are still NHL games when the UMD season ends and he can get a year in collecting his signing bonus and getting a few NHL pay checks while using up his first ELC year.

 

[sipowicz]

Sad that undrafted Luoto is a better prospect than first round pick Versa-Laine!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sad that undrafted Luoto is a better prospect than first round pick Versa-Laine!

Exactly the opposite of that. Luoto is 2 years older. 2 years more developed. KV still has a higher ceiling and time to get there.

Meanwhile - we have Luoto who is looking quite promising and he didn't even cost us a pick.

You are in danger of becoming more like Oscar the Grouch than like Sipowicz.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

You are in danger of becoming more like Oscar the Grouch than like Sipowicz.

Maybe he's aiming more for Bad Sal Benedetto.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe he's aiming more for Bad Sal Benedetto.

I hope you had to dig deep for that one.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

One more year in college and then joins the Jets at the end of his season, time permitting. I think he could have made the Jets this season. Maurice alluded to Poolman going back to college for an extra season as delaying his development a bit. I wonder if it was also an issue with Samberg, with the Jets thinking it would have been better for him to turn pro this year.

Do you have a source for this? As near as I can tell, Samberg has expressed nothing publicly to this effect. It's precisely what I hope happens, though.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Anybody follow Liiga here? I'm really interested to hear how Nikkanen is looking so far. Last I checked, he had 2G 0A in 9GP (and one of them on an insane takeaway in the offensive zone,) but no idea about his linemates, zone starts or toi.

I'm intrigued anyway. I hope someone has some more indepth info.

Really impressed by what I was able to dig up on youtube, but then again, there's a reason they're called highlight videos.

 

[Ggg99]

Short version:
They are RAPM adjusted so it (mostly) accounts for the mins they play together and apart. Think of it as a super WOWY that also includes competition and other factors.

Long version:
RAPM is a regression model used to solve all sets of shifts with 10 unique players (plus other variables added) and the results that occurred over that shift.
So you have one shift of 5v5 and the home team is +2 xG and then you have one player on home team switch for a new player and the team goes +1 over that time frame, you'd get two shifts:
aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + eX5 - zY1 - yY2 - xY3 - wY4 - vY5 = +2
aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + fX6 - zY1 - yY2 - xY3 - wY4 - vY5 = +1
What RAPM does is take every single shift of unique 10 man units like the two you have above, and then solves for these factors. Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM's god father) just solved using regular least squares mean. Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus merely uses ridge regression as opposed to least squares mean.
Ridge regression is a Bayesian filter which makes up for some issues with LSM.

Sure but it's well known that the Bayesian filter has a tendency to get plugged and the resulting brew ends up being more hoppy than your average IPA.

 

[garret9]

Sure but it's well known that the Bayesian filter has a tendency to get plugged and the resulting brew ends up being more hoppy than your average IPA.

lol I like this!

 

[bustamente]

Jets need to do everything in their power to get Samberg signed this off season

 

[Gil Fisher]

Jets need to do everything in their power to get Samberg signed this off season

I heard a rumour that the reason for Buff's LOA is that he is planning to take a sled and team of huskies across the Minnesota wilds to the head of Gitche Gumee to personally strong arm young Samberg into signing and escort him back north to be his D partner. (I've been vetted, Whilee.)

 

[Atoyot]

Chisholm with 2 more assists tonight.
0G5A in 3GP.

 

[KingBogo]

Jets need to do everything in their power to get Samberg signed this off season

The best option to sign Samberg, is to have the UMD season end earlier this season (no championship run) then sign him sometime in mid March and get him into some games. He will use up his first ELC year but hopefully that is the incentive that gets a deal done. He gets his signing bonus money at the time and then the year 2 signing bonus money July 1st and some NHL paychecks in between.