Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread 2013-2014 (Part VII)

[StronGeer]

Nic Petan > Bo Horvat confirmed.

What I took from that is Petan > Mackinnon

 

[Grind]

That was a great read. And also made me feel happy on the inside seeing petan so high on that chart.


also love that the only responses are "well you don't know that he WON"T be a top 6!" which sort of misses the point (those saying he will are just assuming he's an outlier without evidence- similar to the defense that pav will improve, etc etc), followed up by hollow appeals to authority.

 

[Whileee]

What I took from that is Petan > Mackinnon

... also, "uh oh" for Jimmy Lodge. He's about 0.93 ppg in his draft and draft+1 years, and he doesn't seem like he's a good candidate for a bottom-six grinder.

 

[ps241]

Not a Jets prospect post but some Jets show up in these numbers:
http://canucksarmy.com/2014/3/10/reasonable-expectations-for-the-future-is-bo-horvat-a-top-6-c

I'm planing to run some stuff on Jets prospects too once I mine some data

Well written article and its hard to argue the logic and yea one can love the total game a Horvat type plays but numbers don't lie.

Morrissey isn't far off Horvat's scoring pace this season.

 

[garret9]

Well written article and its hard to argue the logic and yea one can love the total game a Horvat type plays but numbers don't lie.

Morrissey isn't far off Horvat's scoring pace this season.

I guess Morrissey is likely a bottom 6 grinder then haha


But in seriousness...
The point of the article is essentially that numbers can show you what expectations and probabilities are, but any player can be an exception to the rule. This is where scouting can come in; it can show you which players are likely better or worse than their production... just make sure to keep your expectations in check with the probabilities.

 

[sunsoutgunsout]

Hey, on the Draisaitl thread on the Prospects board, one of you guys asked someone else for thoughts on Morrissey. I'm a Raiders season ticket holder. What would you like to know?

 

[Huffer]

Hey, on the Draisaitl thread on the Prospects board, one of you guys asked someone else for thoughts on Morrissey. I'm a Raiders season ticket holder. What would you like to know?

That was me. Thanks for posting here.

Just your general thoughts would be great. Strengths, weaknesses, etc. I'm sure you'll get plenty of questions.

 

[Grind]

I guess Morrissey is likely a bottom 6 grinder then haha


But in seriousness...
The point of the article is essentially that numbers can show you what expectations and probabilities are, but any player can be an exception to the rule. This is where scouting can come in; it can show you which players are likely better or worse than their production... just make sure to keep your expectations in check with the probabilities.

I also liked the take away of "the Nhl is the best of the best".

I've long thought that if you aren't good enough to be an elite scorer in junior, your probably not good enough to do yeomans work in the show. ie: the skills/level of skill required to be a bum in the NHL are the same skills/level that allow you to be an elite scorer.

illustrative theoretical example: Skating. The nhl demands a certain speed of skaters just to keep up and play the game. Having this speed alone will create enough separation from your opponents in the CHL that you should be able to generate a high amount of points. But, once you hit the nhl, while that speed no longer allows you to single handedly create offense, not having it would completely eliminate your ability to play the game.

 

[sunsoutgunsout]

That was me. Thanks for posting here.

Just your general thoughts would be great. Strengths, weaknesses, etc. I'm sure you'll get plenty of questions.

No worries, it's my day off. I could talk about him and Leon all day.

Strengths:

Primarily, just how ****ing smart the kid is. I've never seen a defenseman so aware at 18. He jumps up into basically every possible rush, and is legitimately never caught behind the play when the puck goes the other way. It's amazing, I've never seen anything like it.

Piggybacking off of that, his skating is phenomenal. He isn't Grabner fast by any means, but think of a guy like Brian Campbell for skating ability on the blueline.

He keeps his head up the entire time, so his passes are always on the tape and always to the player who gives them the best chance of scoring. Outstanding passer.

A nice wrist shot, both strength and accuarcy-wise. Though in all honesty, and I'm not exaggerating here, probably half of his goals were easy set ups from Draisaitl.

Weaknesses:

He's still a small kid. He's 5'10" and 185 soaking wet. He isn't a terrible hitter, but he's never going to be a Kronwall type.

He tries to do too much from time to time, and due to how horrendously top heavy PA is, he tries to force the puck to Leon way too much. As an aside, I'm not exaggerating when I say that he and Leon are probably two of the top three or four players in the league, so watching them play together is phenomenal. I'm a Blackhawks fan, but I really hope you guys find a way to draft Leo, both to keep he and Josh together and because he'd play seven hours away from me.

His slapshot is weak for a defenseman. He reminds me a bit of Duncan Keith in this respect, a very good two-way defenseman whose go-to shot is a wrister instead of a slapper.



That's really about it as far as weaknesses go. If you want a comparison, I'd say his ceiling is Duncan Keith v2.0, and his real world comp is a little less physical Nik Kronwall.

 

[Whileee]

No worries, it's my day off. I could talk about him and Leon all day.

Strengths:

Primarily, just how ****ing smart the kid is. I've never seen a defenseman so aware at 18. He jumps up into basically every possible rush, and is legitimately never caught behind the play when the puck goes the other way. It's amazing, I've never seen anything like it.

Piggybacking off of that, his skating is phenomenal. He isn't Grabner fast by any means, but think of a guy like Brian Campbell for skating ability on the blueline.

He keeps his head up the entire time, so his passes are always on the tape and always to the player who gives them the best chance of scoring. Outstanding passer.

A nice wrist shot, both strength and accuarcy-wise. Though in all honesty, and I'm not exaggerating here, probably half of his goals were easy set ups from Draisaitl.

Weaknesses:

He's still a small kid. He's 5'10" and 185 soaking wet. He isn't a terrible hitter, but he's never going to be a Kronwall type.

He tries to do too much from time to time, and due to how horrendously top heavy PA is, he tries to force the puck to Leon way too much. As an aside, I'm not exaggerating when I say that he and Leon are probably two of the top three or four players in the league, so watching them play together is phenomenal. I'm a Blackhawks fan, but I really hope you guys find a way to draft Leo, both to keep he and Josh together and because he'd play seven hours away from me.

His slapshot is weak for a defenseman. He reminds me a bit of Duncan Keith in this respect, a very good two-way defenseman whose go-to shot is a wrister instead of a slapper.



That's really about it as far as weaknesses go. If you want a comparison, I'd say his ceiling is Duncan Keith v2.0, and his real world comp is a little less physical Nik Kronwall.

Thanks for the detailed report. It's encouraging, and much appreciated.

I'm a bit surprised by the size you report. His official measurement at the NHL scouting combine last year (May 2013) was 5'11.75". We saw him at the Jets training camp last fall and he seemed taller than 5'10".

 

[sunsoutgunsout]

Thanks for the detailed report. It's encouraging, and much appreciated.

I'm a bit surprised by the size you report. His official measurement at the NHL scouting combine last year (May 2013) was 5'11.75". We saw him at the Jets training camp last fall and he seemed taller than 5'10".

That was definitely a typo. Meant to put 5'11". Don't know why I put 5'10". He'll be fine once he puts on another 20 pounds, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't back in PA next year.

 

[Whileee]

That was definitely a typo. Meant to put 5'11". Don't know why I put 5'10". He'll be fine once he puts on another 20 pounds, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't back in PA next year.

Thanks. I agree that his size is likely what will keep him from making the jump to the NHL. I don't think the Jets will rush Morrissey if he's not physically ready. They left Scheifele in Junior for a couple of seasons after his draft so that he could develop some strength.

 

[allan5oh]

I've never seen a defenseman so aware at 18. He jumps up into basically every possible rush, and is legitimately never caught behind the play when the puck goes the other way. It's amazing, I've never seen anything like it.

He gets that from his dad, who runs a d-man training camp:

http://www.druleshockey.com/

He seems very in tune with the latest trends in d-men roles, which is exactly what you're talking about. Here's a quote at the bottom of the front page:

The Defence position in hockey is evolving very quickly. The new NHL rules, which allow much less obstruction, are filtering down to minor hockey levels. This evolution of the rules has brought about a change to the model of the “defence†player. The stereotypical big, strong, physical player with somewhat less skating ability, speed and agility than typical forwards is being replaced with an athlete still sharing the traits of strength and physical play, but who is now relied upon to match speed with attacking forwards, quarterback the team attack and participate to a far greater extent in the rush and offensive zone play.

If Morrissey turns into a beauty, I'd expect his dad to be real busy for a while.

 

[jetkarma*]

He gets that from his dad, who runs a d-man training camp:

http://www.druleshockey.com/

He seems very in tune with the latest trends in d-men roles, which is exactly what you're talking about. Here's a quote at the bottom of the front page:



If Morrissey turns into a beauty, I'd expect his dad to be real busy for a while.

His dad like Josh is a smart guy overall , not just for hockey . His father realized the direction of the game and has implemented a program to teach and train young D men , and of course his own son.

Josh also has trained with a number of NHL D men , so that Josh is as intuitive as he is , is not a surprise .

 

[jetkarma*]

He reminds me a bit of Duncan Keith in this respect, a very good two-way defenseman whose go-to shot is a wrister instead of a slapper.



That's really about it as far as weaknesses go. If you want a comparison, I'd say his ceiling is Duncan Keith v2.0, and his real world comp is a little less physical Nik Kronwall.

Well since he has trained with Duncan extensively , this isn't a surprise.

 

[KingBogo]

Thanks. I agree that his size is likely what will keep him from making the jump to the NHL. I don't think the Jets will rush Morrissey if he's not physically ready. They left Scheifele in Junior for a couple of seasons after his draft so that he could develop some strength.

I can't see the Jets rushing any of their prospects. There is no evidence that they would now do it with Morrissey when they have been patient with their other 1st rounders. My feeling is Morrissey will be given a shot in training camp and judged on his play both physically and mentally. If it is obvious he is not ready he will be sent back to Junior before the season starts. If he is close he will get a few games with the big club and it will be up to him from there.

 

[Huffer]

Thanks a lot for your post sunsoutgunsout. It's great to hear from a PA season ticket holder.

Question about Josh's defensive game. We know he's not a huge guy. How is he at handling bigger forwards in front of his goal? And handling them down low? Does he primarily use his stick, and positioning, or is he at least strong enough to engage with most of them physically?

 

[GJF]

sunsoutgunsout: Do you watch Jets games sometimes? If you do, could you talk about what Josh and Enström share in their play and what is different about them?

Some here, involving myself, see Enström with more offensive and physical upside in him. Are they actually comparable or is this a wrong conclusion because of their visual similarities (the way they skate and QB a PP etc)? I have seen way too little of his game to actually say they are similar after all but on the highlight reels, they often look similar.

 

[BlueBomber44]

A little off the current topic but I remember hearing or reading somewhere that the Jets are one of the biggest spenders in the league when it comes to scouting players, I cant remember where I heard this but I was just wondering if anyone had any information to confirm this?

 

[garret9]

A little off the current topic but I remember hearing or reading somewhere that the Jets are one of the biggest spenders in the league when it comes to scouting players, I cant remember where I heard this but I was just wondering if anyone had any information to confirm this?

Only two things I saw were related to this was that:
1) Jets added some (how much I don't know) to the ATL budget
2) Jets were one of the very few that did not shrink budget during lockout

 

[Duke749]

sunsoutgunsout: Do you watch Jets games sometimes? If you do, could you talk about what Josh and Enström share in their play and what is different about them?

Some here, involving myself, see Enström with more offensive and physical upside in him. Are they actually comparable or is this a wrong conclusion because of their visual similarities (the way they skate and QB a PP etc)? I have seen way too little of his game to actually say they are similar after all but on the highlight reels, they often look similar.

When I first got to watch Morrissey in the rookie tournament and then the pre-season, my first thought was he reminded me a bit of Enstrom. But moreso because I've watched Enstrom his whole career and I think it's more of a relation to Enstrom will likely be the first name to come to mind. Morrissey might be smarter though. And that's saying something. Josh's skating is smoother and more fluid. Similar to Duncan Keith. But Enstrom has a much better slapper. I think Morrissey for the most part will be most similar to a Duncan Keith type, but his smarts reminds me A LOT of Enstrom, and I think that's where the similarities come in.

It's good to see that my original impression of him was correct in this regard coming from a PA season ticket holder. He's smart enough to play in the NHL right now. It'll just take some time for him to physically grow.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

At the limit - continue here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1622263