Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Ducky10]

His play has changed so drastically that I would even go as far as saying his injury changed his entire career forever.

 

[voyageur]

Yeah ideally you have a good skating puck mover and a bigger defence first guy on every pairing. Even more ideal is a bigger good skating puck mover. We really need to give Heinola and Samberg a shot. At best we turn this sinking ship around, at worst they suck and we at least know what we have in them and can look at other options.

This is an interesting thought.

Defense has changed so much over the years. You rarely had more than one skilled d-man per team in the 80s, the 90s that started to change. With the increasing speed in the game, and room for smaller forwards, you can play smaller on defense. Skating is the most important thing to me, I look at guys like Makar, Heiskanen, Josi, those aren't big guys. Even before them there were guys like Keith and Letang that dominated. You can hem them in their own zone, on a good cycle shift, but once they have the puck they make things happen, which many big defensemen can't do. Buff was a notable exception. Ideal pairings are Werenski-Jones where there is no weakness. I think a guy like Pionk is perfectly adaptable to the pace of the NHL today, when I watch him the play rarely gets behind him because he is such a good skater. When we played big on defense, the fundamentals of it was back pressure, from speedy forwards, closing gaps. We can't play that way anymore because our defense rarely plays to angle players off on the boards anymore. It's quickness, stick position and good support positions that are the tools our defensemen often rely on.

Stanley is a breath of fresh air because he has a lot of Oleksiak like skills to his game, where he is able to use his size/reach in a lot of different situations to his advantage, both offensively and defensively. He won't be a guy that fills the gaps on the rush though, his skating isn't that good. That's where Pionk, Morrrissey, and Poolman can contribute.

We are getting very important defensive contributions from Forbort and De Melo, particularly on the PK. I don't think there is any reason to draw Poolman out of the lineup, so there's a spot for one defenseman, and it's arguable whether that d-man should have an offensive or defensive impact. If we had a stronger defensive impact from Morrissey, I'd say that spot would be Heinola's for the taking, but I'd argue that Stanley's probably the best suited right now to fill that role, as he has the potential to fill both ends. Beaulieu's PKing might make him more valuable however, if you are measuring the overall impact, including special teams, that's a tough call. Samberg is the one most likely to make the jump this year, but he's had the longest layoff and as long as Forbort is playing decent hockey, I'm not sure I'd promote him over Stanley at this point. By midseason once he's gotten up to speed, I think he offers more to his game than Stanley can, because of his better mobility. Starting him on the right side maybe he could replace Poolman, but I wouldn't be racing to do so. Poolman took awhile to process the game, I'm not sure Samberg would offer better results as a raw rookie.

This defense is still in the rebuilding process, at least one rookie has contributed positiviely so far. Wouldn't be surprised if all 3 of Stanley, Samberg and Heinola contributed at various times. I also wouldn't be surprised if Maurice goes with a more veteran lineup on the road, just because rookies can be exposed. And learning to stop a guy like Mc David isn't an easy training on the job. With the points being tight, and the Jets being unable to separate from the pack, it makes the decisions tougher on Maurice, as to when to take the kid gloves off a young player.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Not sure if this belongs in the D thread or the coaching thread but they are connected.

View attachment 396308

So if I am reading this right...we have the second worst defence in the league.

 

[Potential]

So if I am reading this right...we have the second worst defence in the league.

Yup, our defence is... um, questionable.

Hockey in this age is all about speed: how fast you retrieve and move the puck, how fast you transition from retrieval to offense, and most importantly, how fast you can process the play and make decisions.

Our defence is exposed whenever we are pressured, as we are not particularly good at any of these things. A system can take away some of the pressure of quick decision making, but this issue is by and large personnel related.

There were so many bad defensive zone passes in the Ottawa game due to forecheckers pressuring our defence. Pionk is the only player of ours I can think of who can read the play at speed. All others need vast amounts of space to buffer their decision making, else there is a good chance of a turnover.

I honestly have no idea what to do about this problem.

 

[Daximus]

Even just a bigger guy who doesn't give up craploads of chances. But even still, if you don't give up scoring chances why does your size matter? I get the optimal relationship between the two but they aren't mutually inclusive.

No size is just nicer to have all things equal. Though size doesn't necessarily mean strong. As long as someone has good physical strength and can handle being pushed around they are more useful than someone who can't.

 

[Daximus]

This is the way I see our D right now in the 1-8 ranking.

Morrrisey - Falls somewhere in the 2/3 category. Was a really strong #2 but something seems off this year. He's trending downwards which isn't good. He's dragging around some anchors but his individual play is also just not up to his standards regardless.
Pionk - In the 2/3 category, seems to be pushing towards a 2 now.
DeMelo - More of a 5/6. Ideally he's not on your top pairing. Probably better suited to a 2nd pairing role.
Beaulieu - More of a 6/7 kind of guy, I like him more on a 3rd pairing.
Forbort - Also more of a 7/8 kind of guy. I don't think you want him playing a lot, but can handle a 3rd pairing role.
Poolman - 6/7 kind of guy like Beaulieu. Someone whose best suited on a 3rd line.
Stanley - 7/8 kind of guy right now. Maybe he rises up but I don't see him getting much further than a 6/7.
Heinola - I think Ville can come in as a 5/6 likely and has the potential to be another 2/3 for us.
Samberg - I think Dylan likely comes in a 6/7 kind of guy and has the potential to rise quickly to more of a 4/5 type, maybe as high as a 3/4.

I think ideally based on these projections we have something like.. we just need to give one of Heinola/Samberg a shot right now. I think playing both at the same time could be dangerous. But just bring in one and see how they look. Then bring the other in later on.

 

[boydkc]

Samberg ,Pionk
Heinola, Demelo
Morrisey,Poolman

roll them.

Beaulieu is all over the place.
Forbert is too slow.
Stanley is too slow.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I love Pionk’s game and I like his feisty competitive edge.
He plays much bigger than he is.
He’s probably been our best D man or at least the steadiest.

 

[Whileee]

Maybe, but I'm skeptical on it.

The fact that Morrissey with DeMelo in middle of the road usage over two seasons garners similar results to Pionk, who is also not a top pairing defender IMO, with a worse partner in Forbort under much tougher minutes says something.

Still a small sample size with only 147 minutes together, very scattered (about 9 minutes per game on average). Still, the Morrissey-DeMelo pair was over 50% in CF and almost 50% in xGF, with relative metrics that are positive. It's perhaps not ideal, but worth looking at for an extended period of time to see if Morrissey can be better in a stable pair.

 

[JetsNut]

Our defence is a sad state of affairs. The main reason is the coaching staff. Not only do they continue to bet on archaic systems, they’re use of personnel is bizarre to say the least.

 

[Highway1]

Hopefully after a handful of games or so with the Moose we will have a better grip on Samberg’s potential . I have a feeling management will be watching these games extra closely to evaluate exactly what we have. Heres hoping that a lot of smiles will be on those faces evaluating these games.

 

[wpgallday1960]

I think what frustrates everybody is you can help both our size issues and puck retrieval/moving issues by inserting Heinola and Samberg instead of what we’re running.

I would like to see those two in the line up for a few games to see if there is some improvement.

 

[SUX2BU]

Once the shell game of protecting players vs not protecting players from Seattle has come and gone, it's time to field the best defense possible. Likewise with the forwards too

 

[Adam da bomb]

I’d like to see who the 2 d are in division. Is chabot really a 1 if Morissey is not even a 2. Is nurse a 2, is muzzin really that much better than Morissey?

 

[Adam da bomb]

This is the way I see our D right now in the 1-8 ranking.

Morrrisey - Falls somewhere in the 2/3 category. Was a really strong #2 but something seems off this year. He's trending downwards which isn't good. He's dragging around some anchors but his individual play is also just not up to his standards regardless.
Pionk - In the 2/3 category, seems to be pushing towards a 2 now.
DeMelo - More of a 5/6. Ideally he's not on your top pairing. Probably better suited to a 2nd pairing role.
Beaulieu - More of a 6/7 kind of guy, I like him more on a 3rd pairing.
Forbort - Also more of a 7/8 kind of guy. I don't think you want him playing a lot, but can handle a 3rd pairing role.
Poolman - 6/7 kind of guy like Beaulieu. Someone whose best suited on a 3rd line.
Stanley - 7/8 kind of guy right now. Maybe he rises up but I don't see him getting much further than a 6/7.
Heinola - I think Ville can come in as a 5/6 likely and has the potential to be another 2/3 for us.
Samberg - I think Dylan likely comes in a 6/7 kind of guy and has the potential to rise quickly to more of a 4/5 type, maybe as high as a 3/4.

I think ideally based on these projections we have something like.. we just need to give one of Heinola/Samberg a shot right now. I think playing both at the same time could be dangerous. But just bring in one and see how they look. Then bring the other in later on.

I disagree and see poolman, Stanley, forbort all better than beaulieu.

 

[ecolad]

This is an interesting thought.

Defense has changed so much over the years. You rarely had more than one skilled d-man per team in the 80s, the 90s that started to change. With the increasing speed in the game, and room for smaller forwards, you can play smaller on defense. Skating is the most important thing to me, I look at guys like Makar, Heiskanen, Josi, those aren't big guys. Even before them there were guys like Keith and Letang that dominated. You can hem them in their own zone, on a good cycle shift, but once they have the puck they make things happen, which many big defensemen can't do. Buff was a notable exception. Ideal pairings are Werenski-Jones where there is no weakness. I think a guy like Pionk is perfectly adaptable to the pace of the NHL today, when I watch him the play rarely gets behind him because he is such a good skater. When we played big on defense, the fundamentals of it was back pressure, from speedy forwards, closing gaps. We can't play that way anymore because our defense rarely plays to angle players off on the boards anymore. It's quickness, stick position and good support positions that are the tools our defensemen often rely on.

Stanley is a breath of fresh air because he has a lot of Oleksiak like skills to his game, where he is able to use his size/reach in a lot of different situations to his advantage, both offensively and defensively. He won't be a guy that fills the gaps on the rush though, his skating isn't that good. That's where Pionk, Morrrissey, and Poolman can contribute.

We are getting very important defensive contributions from Forbort and De Melo, particularly on the PK. I don't think there is any reason to draw Poolman out of the lineup, so there's a spot for one defenseman, and it's arguable whether that d-man should have an offensive or defensive impact. If we had a stronger defensive impact from Morrissey, I'd say that spot would be Heinola's for the taking, but I'd argue that Stanley's probably the best suited right now to fill that role, as he has the potential to fill both ends. Beaulieu's PKing might make him more valuable however, if you are measuring the overall impact, including special teams, that's a tough call. Samberg is the one most likely to make the jump this year, but he's had the longest layoff and as long as Forbort is playing decent hockey, I'm not sure I'd promote him over Stanley at this point. By midseason once he's gotten up to speed, I think he offers more to his game than Stanley can, because of his better mobility. Starting him on the right side maybe he could replace Poolman, but I wouldn't be racing to do so. Poolman took awhile to process the game, I'm not sure Samberg would offer better results as a raw rookie.

This defense is still in the rebuilding process, at least one rookie has contributed positiviely so far. Wouldn't be surprised if all 3 of Stanley, Samberg and Heinola contributed at various times. I also wouldn't be surprised if Maurice goes with a more veteran lineup on the road, just because rookies can be exposed. And learning to stop a guy like Mc David isn't an easy training on the job. With the points being tight, and the Jets being unable to separate from the pack, it makes the decisions tougher on Maurice, as to when to take the kid gloves off a young player.

I`ll restrict my comments to the bolded. This observation is exactly on the mark but I`d expand on it a bit. Few seem to appreciate the fundamental changes that Maurice has made in a effort to deal with the loss of our key D after 2018/19. He essentially reverted to a much more conservative , what he thought would be lesser risk, approach of pullback/retrenchment in the offensive and neutral zones. The high pressure forecheck (1-2-2) was abandoned in favor of what we see now (2-2-1). All of the aggressive play which worked so well to take away time and space and to create outsized number of turnovers has disappeared as part of this change, as you note. This allowed our opponent a much easier time to get organized for their own breakout and to traverse through the neutral zone and approach our blueline with speed! In addition, the strategy at the blueline changed with both D and backchecking forwards now much more inclined to offer less resistance to entering our zone. The D seem to be much less willing to angle the puck carrier ,or to stand him up, at the blueline - again, because of the perceived risk with such style of play.

I`d add that this conservative retrenchment/pullback approach has been incorporated into nearly all system play. The role of the D has been seriously curtailed in the offensive zone when we are on the attack - from simple things like lessor pinching/lesser movement along the blueline/and much lessor involvement in any hi/lo cycle work (although Maurice never did at any time favor rotation by the D, so it`s not a change per se). My sense is that Maurice will discourage any of our puck moving D from actually carrying the puck through the neutral zone and/or making a possession zone entry. Too risky... .

This approach is essentially fully incorporated into our PK play as well - where everything tends to collapse into the house and try to keep a body between the puck and our net.

It seems to me that Maurice was well justified in making some efforts at retrenchment when he lost key personnel, but that he has simply gone too far and too deep. The result is what we see on the ice now. The problems are systemic in nature and will not go away with some simple personnel change. A rebalancing of risk/reward is in need -whether Maurice recognizes/shares that view is the question.

 

[Gm0ney]

Stanley's played pretty well in sheltered minutes. He hasn't committed many gaffes. He's a serviceable bottom pair NHL defenseman. He's statistically been one of our better defensemen this season - 2nd in CF%, 1st in GF%, 2nd in xGF%, 2nd in xGA/60. At least he's been rewarded for his play - by being moved to the taxi squad...

Morrissey - I don't know what's happened to him. His decision-making is off, he's getting caught flat footed. Is it just confidence? Something is wrong with his game. It's not just Trouba withdrawal...although Trouba was an excellent partner for him. Putting him on his offside and tying an anchor to him probably isn't the best way to get him going again, but hey...

 

[LowLefty]

It seems to me that Maurice was well justified in making some efforts at retrenchment when he lost key personnel, but that he has simply gone too far and too deep. The result is what we see on the ice now. The problems are systemic in nature and will not go away with some simple personnel change. A rebalancing of risk/reward is in need -whether Maurice recognizes/shares that view is the question.

If personnel changes were made, there is a good chance systemic changes would follow since there is less of a need for what you nicely described in your post.
The debate will be around whether or not we need to make changes now. The last thing I am concerned about now is how effective our D are in the offensive zone or in other words, offensively - and I believe Mo shares that view.
It comes back to: Do safer D systems make sense with the group we have now?

 

[Keduzin]

According to Niku’s agent they might be requesting a trade.

 

[OKR]

According to Niku’s agent they might be requesting a trade.

As they should at this point, Niku should atleast be playing somewhere and it doesn’t matter what he does he won’t get to play in Jets, wasted entirely there.

 

[John Agar]

Those wanting to watch the future of the Jets defense should tune into the first home game linked at the top @ www.moosehockey.com starting at 6 pm tonight....

Tonight's game is free I believe...

You just have to make a sign-in to AHLtv ...

Then re-log in and you should be able to watch...

I have paid for an all games Moose only package ... $36 U.S. for the whole season to stream...

I thought that was good value... and I can watch said prospects you are debating about, Heinola, Samberg, etc. ...

 

[Jet]

I think what frustrates everybody is you can help both our size issues and puck retrieval/moving issues by inserting Heinola and Samberg instead of what we’re running.

I love these assumptions based on zero practical data.

Sure, Heinola has looked good in a very small sample size in the NHL. He also faded hard before he was returned to Europe (but people don't remember that somehow). Samberg hasn't had a lick of pro experience, not one second.

The biggest meme on HF Boards is a prospect will always play better than an established NHL veteran. Never mind if they are physically or mentally capable yet of playing in the best league in the world, or if they need to be heavily sheltered when they do.

When you say what we're running, what exactly do you mean. Who are Heinola and Samberg currently better than (that you can make a cogent argument for). Beaulieu? Maybe Stanley?

 

[Jet]

As they should at this point, Niku should atleast be playing somewhere and it doesn’t matter what he does he won’t get to play in Jets, wasted entirely there.

If he can't crack the Jets lineup, it's extremely unlikely he's an NHL player.

He's going into the bin with Petan, Klingberg, Machacek, Burmistrov, Dano, etc etc etc.

 

[garret9]

Still a small sample size with only 147 minutes together, very scattered (about 9 minutes per game on average). Still, the Morrissey-DeMelo pair was over 50% in CF and almost 50% in xGF, with relative metrics that are positive. It's perhaps not ideal, but worth looking at for an extended period of time to see if Morrissey can be better in a stable pair.

I think he can be part of a stable pair... But I'm just saying that a top 62 defender in the NHL don't normally "just pass" 50% in middle of the road usage with a decent defensive partner who gets decent results with many players.

 

[scelaton]

Some interesting comments here. I agree that the defense is playing a much more conservative system since the loss of Byfuglien, Trouba and Myers, and deservedly so. It was a deep wound.

Morrissey has been unable to make the leap to a bona fide 1-2 and that has compounded the situation. Playing him on the right side is a bad idea until he regains his confidence.

We are beginning to see further growth in Pionk's game and I believe Poolmen is poised to take another step as well. That will organically translate into a more fluid D game in the O zone.

Demelo and Forbert are the only other D who have top-4 complimentary potential, but Forbert is v-e-r-y slow.

Samberg is not going to change the equation much--it is unrealistic to expect him to outplay any of our top-4 at this point, but it won't hurt to give him his 7 games. He is competing with Stanley for 3rd pairing time and I would rather the latter be given the opportunity.

Heinola is really the only internal option with enough potential to change the equation at this point. I imagine the plan is to start him on the Moose, move him up to the big club after 10-20 games if he excels, and then see. If he shines after 7 games then we sacrifice the ELC year and keep him up. If he is good but not great then send him back to complete his seasoning.