Prospect Info: Wings come in at #9 on Scott Wheeler's Prospect Pool Rankings (Paywall: The Athletic)

[Hen Kolland]

Wheeler's 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 9 Detroit Red...

For those who do not subscribe, his criteria to be considered a prospect are:
1. Under 23 years old
2. Not currently in the NHL (some exceptions) - Zadina was not eligible, but Smith was
3. Signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft

Wheeler listed 20 prospects. The order is as follows:

Moritz Seider
Joe Veleno
Michael Rasmussen
Jonatan Berggren
Jared McIsaac
Robert Mastrosimone
Antti Tuomisto
Otto Kivenmaki
Givani Smith
Albert Johansson
Ethan Phillips
Elmer Soderblom
Keith Petruzzelli
Filip Larsson
Albin Grewe
Gustav Lindstrom
Jesper Eliasson
Seth Barton
Kirill Tyutyayev
Carter Gylander

Click to read more...

 

[Hammettf2b]

It should get better with another top 4 pick this coming draft too

 

[Christien]

Pretty disappointing to not even be in at east the top 5, but like Hammett said it should definitely be improving. The newly hired scouts hopefully will improve our track record.

 

[Bench]

Number 9 isn't awful, but it's not good enough to boost this team out of the basement. I think something people forget when it comes to prospects and drafting is that you aren't competing against only yourself, but other teams. That is to say, sure, a #3 overall pick makes you a better team. But you're ultimately, assuming you leave the gutters, competing against the teams that got #1 and #2. And if those players are that much better, ugh.

So the Wings have a truly awful NHL roster and a prospect pool that ranks in the 70th percentile.

I don't envy Yzerman's job right now. He's going to have to kill this upcoming draft and swing some off-season deals by way of trade/UFA to start laying a foundation for 3 years out.

 

[jkutswings]

For a silver lining, I'm glad to see Seider at the top of the list. It was seen as a bold move on draft day, and Yzerman's biggest red flag in Tampa was some of his first round picks.

Had the kid gotten off to a lousy start, I might be less optimistic about the new regime succeeding in this uphill battle, but at this very early juncture, so far so good.

 

[ThankGord]

Cool seeing Kivenmaki and Soderblom getting some love. Both super late picks and on opposite sides of the size spectrum.

 

[Larkin2AA]

Pretty disappointing to not even be in at east the top 5, but like Hammett said it should definitely be improving. The newly hired scouts hopefully will improve our track record.

Disappointing, sure, but looking back and seeing how bad the 2017 draft was really puts our prospect pool into prospective. All those picks that year and 3 of 11 players have a chance at making the team. That's brutal. I feel confident in our top 4 picks from the last two drafts we've had. I think after this years draft, we should enter the top 5 prospect pool (imo of course).

 

[TCNorthstars]

Number 9 isn't awful, but it's not good enough to boost this team out of the basement. I think something people forget when it comes to prospects and drafting is that you aren't competing against only yourself, but other teams. That is to say, sure, a #3 overall pick makes you a better team. But you're ultimately, assuming you leave the gutters, competing against the teams that got #1 and #2. And if those players are that much better, ugh.

So the Wings have a truly awful NHL roster and a prospect pool that ranks in the 70th percentile.

I don't envy Yzerman's job right now. He's going to have to kill this upcoming draft and swing some off-season deals by way of trade/UFA to start laying a foundation for 3 years out.

To be fair that list has only two top 10 picks and a late late one for the first rounders. I'm sure our ranking would be higher if Zadina was on the list.

 

[Bench]

To be fair that list has only two top 10 picks and a late late one for the first rounders. I'm sure our ranking would be higher if Zadina was on the list.

But that wouldn't only raise the Wings. Then we have to include all the other Zadina-like players that got left off other teams lists?

 

[HisNoodliness]

9 is a disappointing spot for a team in our position, but I think he's spot on. If we hadn't just graduated Zadina it would be really depressing.

We need our huge prospect depth to result in a few guys that totally knock their development out of the park. Our pool is really full, but most of them seem to be projecting as supporting cast. If a few of our extras can become key contributors that would be huge.

 

[wingfan]

But that wouldn't only raise the Wings. Then we have to include all the other Zadina-like players that got left off other teams lists?

How many other teams ranked ahead of or near Detroit have Zadina like players? Outside of Cody Glass for Vegas, who has 12 pts in almost 40 games this year to Zadina's 15 pts in 28, who would there be?

 

[Bench]

How many other teams ranked ahead of or near Detroit have Zadina like players? Outside of Cody Glass for Vegas, who has 12 pts in almost 40 games this year to Zadina's 15 pts in 28, who would there be?

I don't know. It could very well benefit the Wings more, that's true. I'm just saying if you change the rules of the rankings for our team, and only our team, it's not going to be accurate either.

Off the top of my head you'd have to include players like Adam Fox who has 29 points in 51 games from the blueline in his rookie year. Huge difference for the Rangers pipeline with him off the list.

 

[Winger98]

I don't know. It could very well benefit the Wings more, that's true. I'm just saying if you change the rules of the rankings for our team, and only our team, it's not going to be accurate either.

Off the top of my head you'd have to include players like Adam Fox who has 29 points in 51 games from the blueline in his rookie year. Huge difference for the Rangers pipeline with him off the list.

The subjectivity of the cutoffs is what makes these lists so messy. we've seen similar debates when we do polls around here. I'm not really sure how to "fix" that, either. I would suggest going straight up with waiver eligibility. If you don't have to pass through waivers, then you're not entirely out of the prospect sphere. But that would also mean Hronek would still be in our prospect poll (at least until the end of this season).

It would require a bit of a change to how we define a prospect. And maybe Hronek should still be a prospect. He's not exactly a finished product, and this will be his first full season in the NHL.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The subjectivity of the cutoffs is what makes these lists so messy. we've seen similar debates when we do polls around here. I'm not really sure how to "fix" that, either. I would suggest going straight up with waiver eligibility. If you don't have to pass through waivers, then you're not entirely out of the prospect sphere. But that would also mean Hronek would still be in our prospect poll (at least until the end of this season).

It would require a bit of a change to how we define a prospect. And maybe Hronek should still be a prospect. He's not exactly a finished product, and this will be his first full season in the NHL.

I don't hate the guidelines that Wheeler lays out as a prospect. There is a difference between a developing young player and a prospect. All prospects are developing young players, but not all developing young players are prospects.

He laid his terms out plainly: if you are actively contributing to the NHL team's product (making exceptions for short term stints for injuries or 9 game samples), you aren't a prospect. If we consider the definition to be "a player who has the possibility of being an NHL player" then yeah, Wheeler is right. If you are an NHL player, you aren't a prospect anymore.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Number 9 isn't awful, but it's not good enough to boost this team out of the basement. I think something people forget when it comes to prospects and drafting is that you aren't competing against only yourself, but other teams. That is to say, sure, a #3 overall pick makes you a better team. But you're ultimately, assuming you leave the gutters, competing against the teams that got #1 and #2. And if those players are that much better, ugh.

It would be interesting to go back through the years and see how well ranking highly on prospect pool charts correlates with becoming a great team down the line.

Being around ~10th is decent though considering we're graduating prospects relatively quickly right now. Cholowski and Zadina could easily still be full-time Grand Rapids players and improve our prospect pool, but that doesn't mean our future would look brighter. I feel like depth is also really hard to measure, it feels like we have a lot of it but that doesn't mean much unless someone really hits it out of the park with their development. For what it's worth, wherever we draft this summer our pool will jump up a few notches. Especially if Yzerman can work some magic and add another 1st or at least a few 2nds.

 

[Bench]

It would be interesting to go back through the years and see how well ranking highly on prospect pool charts correlates with becoming a great team down the line.

That would certainly be interesting. I don't get too tied up in exact rankings. I think unless we have a surprise here, the Wings are in the top half, but not in the elite group. So... we could really use a few surprises. And some lottery ball luck in a few months.

 

[Winger98]

I don't hate the guidelines that Wheeler lays out as a prospect. There is a difference between a developing young player and a prospect. All prospects are developing young players, but not all developing young players are prospects.

He laid his terms out plainly: if you are actively contributing to the NHL team's product (making exceptions for short term stints for injuries or 9 game samples), you aren't a prospect. If we consider the definition to be "a player who has the possibility of being an NHL player" then yeah, Wheeler is right. If you are an NHL player, you aren't a prospect anymore.

Quick question: how many guys do you think the Wings could pull up from GR who couldn't contribute to Wings and look like an NHLer (at least in comparison to the guy they'd be replacing)? I could put Rasmussen or Veleno in Ehn or Perlini or Erne's spot, play them 20 games, and suddenly they are a developing young player.

Also, Zadina got his spot because of injuries, and there's no telling how long his stay would have been because he's now injured (and the Wings still aren't healthy).

And I hate to say it, but how does he look at cholowski and see a guy who looks like an NHLer right now, especially one who is contributing in any way beyond being a warm body?

 

[izlez]

Kind of seems like Cholowski should be included, though he's at a pretty interesting time as far as status goes. He's only currently in the NHL due to injuries, despite playing in 85 NHL games.

Kivenmaki sure is high for a 7th round pick that's 5'8" 140 lbs, hasn't played in North America, didn't make the WJC team, and isn't setting his league on fire. He's still a very long shot to play an NHL game, much less be an NHL contributer.

The 2nd line center with 14 points in 38 games and a -23 is ranked higher than the first line center with 14 points in 19 games and a -2? Got it.

 

[Bench]

Perhaps one thing we're not talking about enough, and likely due to depression, is how far Filip Larsson has tanked in our rankings.

It's too early to give up on him, but damn, I sure wish it looked like he was a more sure thing at this point.

 

[Ezekial]

I don't hate the guidelines that Wheeler lays out as a prospect. There is a difference between a developing young player and a prospect. All prospects are developing young players, but not all developing young players are prospects.

He laid his terms out plainly: if you are actively contributing to the NHL team's product (making exceptions for short term stints for injuries or 9 game samples), you aren't a prospect. If we consider the definition to be "a player who has the possibility of being an NHL player" then yeah, Wheeler is right. If you are an NHL player, you aren't a prospect anymore.

Givani Smith has played 18 games for the Wings this year and I'm sure Zadina will "bounce back" to the AHL for the playoffs, so it is kind of stupid. He's technically been sent down 2 times since New Years, and played in the AHL once.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

2017 draft really walloped us. Maybe a third line player with our first pick(a top ten pick at that) and maybe a bottom pairing defenseman out of, what, 11 picks? Oof.

 

[Flowah]

2017 draft really walloped us. Maybe a third line player with our first pick(a top ten pick at that) and maybe a bottom pairing defenseman out of, what, 11 picks? Oof.

NHL drafting is really, really, really hard.... I don't know how it compares to other leagues but it just seems like a complete crapshoot to me.

 

[Winger98]

2017 draft really walloped us. Maybe a third line player with our first pick(a top ten pick at that) and maybe a bottom pairing defenseman out of, what, 11 picks? Oof.

Rasmussen might be a second line center or first line wing, too. The guy has looked good in GR this year, despite the injury issues. And while I don't think any of us like trying to grade goalie prospects, Petruzzelli has built off a solid sophmore season and is having a good junior year. I don't think it'd be crazy of the Wings try to sign him this summer and move him into the pro system somewhere.

 

[Frk It]

2017 draft really walloped us. Maybe a third line player with our first pick(a top ten pick at that) and maybe a bottom pairing defenseman out of, what, 11 picks? Oof.

Yeah, bad strategy with the picks after round 1. That draft made me totally OK with Tyler Wright departing. At least Petruzzelli is showing some promise this year. Nice to have a big goalie like that in the system.

 

[Bench]

NHL drafting is really, really, really hard.... I don't know how it compares to other leagues but it just seems like a complete crapshoot to me.

Well let's throw baseball out because that draft system is bonkers and has a billion rounds. So we're left with basketball and football. Basketball is a lot more a sure thing when you're looking at the top picks, because of the nature of the sport. It's a lot of 1v1 battles and it's so much more obvious who is winning those.

Football is the closest comparable, because you have these different positions and specialties, so it's hard to compare where to pick a top lineman versus a top running back. The way we debate a top goalie versus a top winger.

But the huge difference is in football, these guys are 21-24 already by draft day. So you've already watched their entirely college development and they've turned into men during that time. Even with that advantage, there's plenty of busts. But fewer big surprises than when you're plucking kids out of junior leagues at age 17-18.

Honestly, it's so much harder for me to get excited about the NHL draft compared to the NFL draft for that reason. NHL draft is like "Wooo we got Seider! Can't wait to see him play in... 2 years? 3? Probably 3 until he's full-time. And all the other picks, hell yeah, see you guys in 4 years!"

Meanwhile, I watched all 4 of my NFL team's top draft picks play this year with a full-time job on the roster. Immediately. Drafted in spring, boom, on the field in fall. And 2 of them were full-time starters.