Wings averaging 3.7 GF per game since Abby went down

[avssuc]

It gives, at short-term. Biggest blaim in that Abdelkader-contract is the term. It could become a long-term problem, but time for that discussion isn't know, except for the doomsday sayers.

-Vegas odds makers (whom become unemployed with poor forecasting) have the Wings ranked 18th out of the 30 clubs. Their odds were 40/1, updated at 50/1. That's well outside of the playoff window (since almost nothing separates them from 20th spot on the list), so I'm not sure how folks can tout "short-term" viability. Less than 2% separates the Wings from the Coyotes, but the futures outlook of the Yotes is far superior.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/16099945/nhl-2016-17-stanley-cup-futures-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

A long-shot to start, worse now in season (basically a 2% chance). Knowing more about your observation:

Are you comfortable with running with 2% odds supporting the notion of "short-term" viability?

Would you say the Wings are being honest in risk/reward (assuming "short-term" assessment is shared), or is it closer to my contention of revenue generation as they continue with the slow decline (littering the future with probable limiting factors)?

Me, well, you know where I'm at.

-I'm not trying to sound like Chicken Little, just worried about the pain of restructuring in terms of the time necessary to get back to contention. Statistically and historically speaking, there is no argument to support the current path and championship caliber outcome. Holland has been pretty open about how the club is no-longer in a cup window, so I'm not sure where you get this short-term contender idea.

They want to win. They also want to limit their exposure to losing. It isn't champion or bottom of the league. This is truly what I hate about the way that the sports leagues are set up now.

Essentially, you're WORSE off by being a well-run organization that plans for the future than if you're hot ****ing garbage and burn your roster down.

You want to stop tanking? Flip the odds. The last team out gets the best odds at the top pick. Every team has a reason to try to win hockey games. If you're Edmonton and you're hot garbage? Too bad, get good. They'll never do this because it will kill interest in small markets that don't have good management and don't otherwise get good players than when they draft them.

And make it so that you either make the playoffs or you get a leg up in making them last year.

-In the short term, but that's not what successful management plans for. One of your compatriots mentioned "fast-food culture", and this may be a factor along the lines of organizational aim (following the body of my original post). Predictive analytics for organizational revenue almost certainly state that a delayed collapse, and consequent restructuring, is more beneficial... or they put little effort in long-term forecasting. Either way, the product will likely suffer for longer than the post-cap average.

-Define what "burning the roster down" might entail? Trading Vanek at the deadline? Since that's the only reasonable asset they can trade without hurting futures, I don't really know what your aim is here. I'd say trade Green, but he's the only decent defenseman they have. I wouldn't be opposed to it, just not thrilled by the idea. Most of us sharing these opinions aren't advocating burning anything down, we just want management to get out from under the several bad contracts they've made, stop adding them, and trade the one piece they have for futures.

-That's why they have the lottery picks. In a league that's already suffered from labor strikes and small market troubles, this is the last thing the NHL needs. Unless, that is, you want to see the league contract.

I think what he's saying is it is a process. Wings are not re-tooling/re-building like the self gratifying fast food culture is teaching us. I don't think ownership wants to unnaturally tank like TML and Oilers. Maybe they want to slowly descend in a natural way until they draft a few stars to turn the club around, which might take 8+ years.

We don't get to sit in their meetings and hear the direction they are planning for. We get to sit outside in the dark and speculate what they're doing. It is, however, apparent they have no intentions of unnaturally tanking for the sake of drafting top 3.

You might not like it, but you also don't cash checks...

-Process? Of course. Suicide is a process too in most cases. I gathered the bit about process, I just question the prudence if long-term planning is a part. If we assume that the Wings are, like all other large for-profit groups, dedicated to the bottom line, then my speculation isn't far-fetched, it's a probability.

-Fast-food culture? While that may be true with some, I've invested some thought. When you insinuate that this is a driving factor in my thought process without responding topically to the other items I've mentioned ad nauseam, it offers nothing.

To counter this quip, I've cited propitiously how most are genetically built to respond favorably to immediate problems, but not those in the distance. Epigenetic conditioning (business school, experience, etc.) tends to help with addressing future issues sooner, but not in every case. So as they kick the can down the road for profit (disguising the reality with some nice PR), there are really only two ways of looking at their direction. Either way, the issues are mounting, issues that make future product viability look grim.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5530483

Unnatural tank? As opposed to natural? What defines these terms? "Slowly descend in a natural way"... really? Isn't that essentially what I'm arguing here, with a warm and fuzzy euphemistic spin put on? If what you mention is natural, can you cite examples from the cap era? Since I've already laid out how my contentions are statistical probabilities (***with a limited data set), my speculation is more rooted in reality than most of you want to admit. Emotional attachment tends to do that.

-And here is the 'bottom line'. Assuming this isn't just some thinly veiled swipe, you nailed it. Don't you think the internal goal is to maximize profits so those checks they're paying out hurt less?

 

[jkutswings]

I think DRWs are finding the upswing with drafting in the mid-round. Both Mantha and Larkin look promising thus far. Are they super stars, no. But they could be stars (depending on your definition of stars).

Then you have Svech and Cholo who could become solid. And who do they draft 2017, 18, 19 and 20? Seems Wings are doing much better drafting in the 1st round with Tyler Wright than they did with Jim Nill.

They can collect 100 Larkins and Manthas and it won't matter, unless they start using those assets to trade for the pieces they seem to be unable to find. Unless you think they can win a Cup without a #1 center or a #1 defenseman.

 

[Dotter]

Don't you think the internal goal is to maximize profits so those checks they're paying out hurt less?

Based on a quick search, DRWs ticket sales average was around $58/$60 per ticket back in 2010 after losing to Penquins. This was a time of a prime Zetterberg and Datsyuk era and still had Lidstrom.

Without Datsyuk and Lidstrom, and a broken down Zetterberg wings are averaging around $133 per ticket. This is showing ticket sales are going up. I would consider this rapid increase as maximizing profits without losing million from tanking.

If ticket sales decrease to Coyote's prices and only half sellouts at the JLA (or new arena), then that proves Ilitch will go from $111 million per yr (just in ticket sales alone, not counting beer sales, merch and etc..) while spending $73 million cap. Drop that to $37 million per year while spending $53 million to cap floor.


That is a $76 million dollar yearly swing. Why do you think Mike Ilitch and co. wants to lose $76 million per year just to rebuild now? If the rebuild takes 3 years (being extremely generous, probably more like 5 to 7 years) it will cost him $228 million, yes a quarter of a billion dollars.

Riddle me this:
Wings ticket sales are going up. They are spending millions on a new arena. Why do they want to lose millions upon millions of dollars during this prime time? Business is good for the Red Wings organization. It is really good. Why throw that away with a tank?

That seems like **** poor business management to me.

helpful links
http://blog.tiqiq.com/2016/10/2013-14-nhl-average-ticket-prices-team/
https://www.capfriendly.com/faq

 

[avssuc]

I think DRWs are finding the upswing with drafting in the mid-round. Both Mantha and Larkin look promising thus far. Are they super stars, no. But they could be stars (depending on your definition of stars).

Then you have Svech and Cholo who could become solid. And who do they draft 2017, 18, 19 and 20? Seems Wings are doing much better drafting in the 1st round with Tyler Wright than they did with Jim Nill.

For starters, 2013 (Mantha, Bertuzzi, Janmark) was almost a Nill draft as he only left a little over a month prior. If you think that his work wasn't a part, I'm not sure what to say.

In terms of the bold, it might seem like that, but you'd have to ignore the data as it applies to draft position, organizational need, and year specific draft depth/talent. Let's start with the Wings drafting position under Nill dating back to first season after the cap:

2012: No first round pick
2011: No first round pick
2010: 21
2009: 32
2008: 30
2007: 27
2006: No first round pick


In 3 of the 7 years (42% of the time), Nill had no 1st round selection, and his picks have had more time to level out.

As the image shows, probabilities drop significantly when you draft 33 and beyond.


http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144


Coupled with a lack of picks, Nill was drafting almost 10 spots later on average (average of 27.5 against an average of 18.5).

Then we have the pick value data:

No. 18
Average Rating: 4.20
Best: Glen Murray, Petr Sykora, Brooks Orpik, Jason Smith.
Worst: Jesper Mattsson, Jens Karlsson, Chet Pickard.
Ranked 7 or better: 20.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 65.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 75.0%

No. 27
Average Rating: 3.95
Best: Scott Gomez, Steve Staios, Boris Mironov, John Carlson.
Worst: Ari Ahonen, Mike Morris, Philippe Paradis.
Ranked 7 or better: 20.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 65.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 65.0%

Average success key:
4 - Fringe NHLer
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer


http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

The margin can be argued either way, but no matter how you slice it, there is a drop in the probability of success.


With that drop by position, team need certainly played a role. The team was probably selecting more high-risk home run types under Nill as they were on top of the league and could afford that luxury. Wright was/is forced to make safer picks, so the success curve is in his favor.

What about the later round success? I know it's too early to judge Wright, but Nill did very well, not only in the cap era, but dating back to when he started in the 90's (Hank, Pav, Kronwall, Fischer, Helm, Franzen, Hudler, etc). How do we know that Mrazek, Nyquist, Tatar, Athanasiou, Sproul, Ouellet, and a few others might not be better than everyone taken in the Wright drafts? The foreign scouting gap has been narrowed, so I don't expect Wright to follow here, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

Anyway, saying that Wright is drafting better than Nill is totally is absolutely unfounded, and will be for some time. I don't know how someone can make such a claim when both the history and data make that very clear.

 

[Dotter]

Sheahan could be Brock Nelson or Charlie Coyle

Nill screwed the pooch that year.

 

[avssuc]

Based on a quick search, DRWs ticket sales average was around $58/$60 per ticket back in 2010 after losing to Penquins. This was a time of a prime Zetterberg and Datsyuk era and still had Lidstrom.

Without Datsyuk and Lidstrom, and a broken down Zetterberg wings are averaging around $133 per ticket. This is showing ticket sales are going up. I would consider this rapid increase as maximizing profits without losing million from tanking.

If ticket sales decrease to Coyote's prices and only half sellouts at the JLA (or new arena), then that proves Ilitch will go from $111 million per yr (just in ticket sales alone, not counting beer sales, merch and etc..) while spending $73 million cap. Drop that to $37 million per year while spending $53 million to cap floor.


That is a $76 million dollar yearly swing. Why do you think Mike Ilitch and co. wants to lose $76 million per year just to rebuild now? If the rebuild takes 3 years (being extremely generous, probably more like 5 to 7 years) it will cost him $228 million, yes a quarter of a billion dollars.

Riddle me this:
Wings ticket sales are going up. They are spending millions on a new arena. Why do they want to lose millions upon millions of dollars during this prime time? Business is good for the Red Wings organization. It is really good. Why throw that away with a tank?

That seems like **** poor business management to me.

helpful links
http://blog.tiqiq.com/2016/10/2013-14-nhl-average-ticket-prices-team/
https://www.capfriendly.com/faq

What larger economic trends are forecast for the next decade? Might an economic downturn render future futility moot? Perhaps they want to catch the economy on the rebound?

Is it possible that they're maximizing value ahead of a sale? When Mike passes away, Chris might see more $$$ in selling the Wings.

Is it possible that they don't care about money and value the playoff streak? Maybe they honestly think this is the quickest way to the top.

Like you said, none of us are insiders. All we can do is make guesses. Some are educated, some are emotional. I'm not an expert on Ilitch holdings, nor am I a buisness pro, but it seems like the only possible explanations involve insanity or MVP level capitalism. I've been wrong plenty in the past, so I'm sure it's possible here.

 

[jkutswings]

Based on a quick search, DRWs ticket sales average was around $58/$60 per ticket back in 2010 after losing to Penquins. This was a time of a prime Zetterberg and Datsyuk era and still had Lidstrom.

Without Datsyuk and Lidstrom, and a broken down Zetterberg wings are averaging around $133 per ticket. This is showing ticket sales are going up. I would consider this rapid increase as maximizing profits without losing million from tanking.

If ticket sales decrease to Coyote's prices and only half sellouts at the JLA (or new arena), then that proves Ilitch will go from $111 million per yr (just in ticket sales alone, not counting beer sales, merch and etc..) while spending $73 million cap. Drop that to $37 million per year while spending $53 million to cap floor.


That is a $76 million dollar yearly swing. Why do you think Mike Ilitch and co. wants to lose $76 million per year just to rebuild now? If the rebuild takes 3 years (being extremely generous, probably more like 5 to 7 years) it will cost him $228 million, yes a quarter of a billion dollars.

Riddle me this:
Wings ticket sales are going up. They are spending millions on a new arena. Why do they want to lose millions upon millions of dollars during this prime time? Business is good for the Red Wings organization. It is really good. Why throw that away with a tank?

That seems like **** poor business management to me.

helpful links
http://blog.tiqiq.com/2016/10/2013-14-nhl-average-ticket-prices-team/
https://www.capfriendly.com/faq

I don't doubt for a moment that Illitch is turning a profit, and I'm not at all surprised that he's not shooting the golden goose.

What perplexes me is why that many fans could possibly want to support a product that has all but taken out a billboard on I-75 that they're going nowhere.

I like Larkin, Mantha, and AA as players. I think Sproul is interesting. But even if every single one of those guys hits his ceiling, it's simply not nearly enough collective talent to get anywhere near 16 wins. And while ownership is perfectly entitled to run things how they see fit, I'm also entitled to label it for what it is, and to not want to support what I deem to be a team with no chance to do anything meaningful.

Ultimately, it's just sad, because I really wish I could root for the team I loved for 30 years. But when neither contending nor rebuilding is in the cards, I'm just not gonna waste my money on something that can't possibly bring return on investment.

 

[BinCookin]

Based on a quick search, DRWs ticket sales average was around $58/$60 per ticket back in 2010 after losing to Penquins. This was a time of a prime Zetterberg and Datsyuk era and still had Lidstrom.

Without Datsyuk and Lidstrom, and a broken down Zetterberg wings are averaging around $133 per ticket. This is showing ticket sales are going up. I would consider this rapid increase as maximizing profits without losing million from tanking.

If ticket sales decrease to Coyote's prices and only half sellouts at the JLA (or new arena), then that proves Ilitch will go from $111 million per yr (just in ticket sales alone, not counting beer sales, merch and etc..) while spending $73 million cap. Drop that to $37 million per year while spending $53 million to cap floor.


That is a $76 million dollar yearly swing. Why do you think Mike Ilitch and co. wants to lose $76 million per year just to rebuild now? If the rebuild takes 3 years (being extremely generous, probably more like 5 to 7 years) it will cost him $228 million, yes a quarter of a billion dollars.

Riddle me this:
Wings ticket sales are going up. They are spending millions on a new arena. Why do they want to lose millions upon millions of dollars during this prime time? Business is good for the Red Wings organization. It is really good. Why throw that away with a tank?

That seems like **** poor business management to me.

helpful links
http://blog.tiqiq.com/2016/10/2013-14-nhl-average-ticket-prices-team/
https://www.capfriendly.com/faq

If you are going to do an analysis like this...

DO NOT use years 2009/2010 as a basis for old profits. You and I well know what happened then. And Tickets were being sold for a loss.

Use numbers from 2006/2007 plz, then redo the analysis.

 

[Run the Jewels]

If you are going to do an analysis like this...

DO NOT use years 2009/2010 as a basis for old profits. You and I well know what happened then. And Tickets were being sold for a loss.

Use numbers from 2006/2007 plz, then redo the analysis.

Yep, Ilitch was GIVING AWAY A CAR AT GAMES to get fannies in the seats before Yzerman was drafted. What was the franchise valued for back then? Ilitch bought it for $8 million. The latest valuation of the franchise was $600 million. So to complain about 3 or 5 years to draft the next franchise player you build around is penny wise and pound foolish. Billionaires like Mike Ilitch understand the costs to build something that creates massive value.

Right now the Wings are being run by a middle manager in Ken Holland who is trying to squeeze every last cent out of playoff runs that have clearly had diminishing returns over the past 5 years and is about to run dry. The one middle management principle he screwed up was controlling costs, which Lou Lamoriello was great at doing since the Devils were always in awful financial shape. Holland has loads of money tied up into awful contracts and it's funny to hear people complain about the costs of running the franchise but always defended the Franzen signing by saying you can paper that over by using LTIR. It's an awful decision for the "cost consciousness" crowd to defend.

You don't build a brand new state of the art stadium and then field a team that is trending towards the bottom third of the league. The stadium will be full the first year because everyone will want to check it out. However if you don't have a team in their prime or a good young team like the Oilers, people are going to lose interest real quick. Just look at the Devils as an example.

So this idea you need to continue to claw and scratch your way to either miniscule profits or at a bare minimum never put yourself in a position to build for a better future is total middle management thinking. Ken Holland will hopefully retire after next season where he'll get a nice send off with a new arena that will be full due to the spectacle, not to the product on the ice. At that point I think we'll get a good idea of whether the Ilitches are going the way the Norris' went where the franchise went through a very long barren stretch before selling to a brilliant businessman who had the balls to build the greatest 30 year stretch in Detroit sports history.

If Holland retires and the Wings are able to bring in Steve Yzerman you have to think the family is once again committed to building another winner. In my mind it's all conjecture until they name the general manager who will replace Holland.

 

[Dotter]

I don't doubt for a moment that Illitch is turning a profit, and I'm not at all surprised that he's not shooting the golden goose.

What perplexes me is why that many fans could possibly want to support a product that has all but taken out a billboard on I-75 that they're going nowhere.

I like Larkin, Mantha, and AA as players. I think Sproul is interesting. But even if every single one of those guys hits his ceiling, it's simply not nearly enough collective talent to get anywhere near 16 wins. And while ownership is perfectly entitled to run things how they see fit, I'm also entitled to label it for what it is, and to not want to support what I deem to be a team with no chance to do anything meaningful.

Ultimately, it's just sad, because I really wish I could root for the team I loved for 30 years. But when neither contending nor rebuilding is in the cards, I'm just not gonna waste my money on something that can't possibly bring return on investment.

I think this post hit the nail on the head. I am "part of the problem" as I am one of those fans that spends my hard earned money on DRWs. I am happy to spend my money anything Detroit Red Wings. In fact, I'm buying DRWs merch to give to my family for xmas.

So I am part of the problem. The product DRWs are icing is fun for me even though they're not the late ;90s juggernaut anymore. For me, it is an exciting time to be a hockey fan, no matter what team you cheer for. And I am not going "all protest mode" because I am a realist, it is incredibly hard to be a annual contender. It's damn near impossible and tanking for 5 years for a bunch of 1st overall picks isn't a guarantee. And honestly, for me, if Wings do decide to tank, I will lose respect for the club and then I might lose interest. I think tanking is the cowards way. That's just me.

Yep, Ilitch was GIVING AWAY A CAR AT GAMES to get fannies in the seats before Yzerman was drafted. What was the franchise valued for back then? Ilitch bought it for $8 million. The latest valuation of the franchise was $600 million. So to complain about 3 or 5 years to draft the next franchise player you build around is penny wise and pound foolish. Billionaires like Mike Ilitch understand the costs to build something that creates massive value.

Right now the Wings are being run by a middle manager in Ken Holland who is trying to squeeze every last cent out of playoff runs that have clearly had diminishing returns over the past 5 years and is about to run dry. The one middle management principle he screwed up was controlling costs, which Lou Lamoriello was great at doing since the Devils were always in awful financial shape. Holland has loads of money tied up into awful contracts and it's funny to hear people complain about the costs of running the franchise but always defended the Franzen signing by saying you can paper that over by using LTIR. It's an awful decision for the "cost consciousness" crowd to defend.

You don't build a brand new state of the art stadium and then field a team that is trending towards the bottom third of the league. The stadium will be full the first year because everyone will want to check it out. However if you don't have a team in their prime or a good young team like the Oilers, people are going to lose interest real quick. Just look at the Devils as an example.

So this idea you need to continue to claw and scratch your way to either miniscule profits or at a bare minimum never put yourself in a position to build for a better future is total middle management thinking. Ken Holland will hopefully retire after next season where he'll get a nice send off with a new arena that will be full due to the spectacle, not to the product on the ice. At that point I think we'll get a good idea of whether the Ilitches are going the way the Norris' went where the franchise went through a very long barren stretch before selling to a brilliant businessman who had the balls to build the greatest 30 year stretch in Detroit sports history.

If Holland retires and the Wings are able to bring in Steve Yzerman you have to think the family is once again committed to building another winner. In my mind it's all conjecture until they name the general manager who will replace Holland.

DRWs is a HUGE cash cow for the Ilitch family. IMO, Holland is just doing what is asked of him.

It works like this... say you're a Uber driver. Say you have a 2008 Ford Escape Hybrid that gets 35mpg, it's paid off and insurance is cheap.

So that ride makes you $400 per day after expenses because it's completely paid off, cheap and reliable. You are always selling seats in the ride even though it's not anything special, but customers are happy to pay you and you always sell out seats.

Life is good, right? Why would you sell it for the future 2020 Escape that you have to wait 3 years to get? That means you will be down and won't be making $400 per day anymore. Say you make $100/wk washing other Uber drivers windows for the next 3 years because you're waiting on the 2020 Escape.

And in 3 years, you won't sell rides for much more $$ in the 2020 Escape despite it being a nicer ride, so ROI will take an extra 15+ years for the 3 years down time (hardly seems worth it?). So why do this from a business standpoint? It seems insane, doesn't it?

Now say your 2008 Escape is broken down to the point where nobody wants rides anymore and you have to give big discounts to earn any business to the point it cost you $30 out of pocket to make $25 with a net loss of $5, THEN it is time to trade your vehicle in for newer more reliable model.

The subpar, yet dependable 2008 Escape is your cash cow when it nets you $400 per day. Customers are happy as you always sellout seats in it and people are just throwing their hard earned money at you. Even though there's about 1 person out of 1,000 who refuse to ride in your subpar vehicle and demand you to order the 2020 model or they won't give you their $30 once every 6 months. Would you completely change your business model to appease those people who are nit picking your SUV even though you're easily making $400 per day?

The answer is no, you're not going to throw away your cash cow to appease 1% who might be vocal, when you have million buyers ready to buy seats and spend their money on you. That would be bad business management, wouldn't it?

 

[HIFE]

I don't doubt for a moment that Illitch is turning a profit, and I'm not at all surprised that he's not shooting the golden goose.

What perplexes me is why that many fans could possibly want to support a product that has all but taken out a billboard on I-75 that they're going nowhere.

I like Larkin, Mantha, and AA as players. I think Sproul is interesting. But even if every single one of those guys hits his ceiling, it's simply not nearly enough collective talent to get anywhere near 16 wins. And while ownership is perfectly entitled to run things how they see fit, I'm also entitled to label it for what it is, and to not want to support what I deem to be a team with no chance to do anything meaningful.

Ultimately, it's just sad, because I really wish I could root for the team I loved for 30 years. But when neither contending nor rebuilding is in the cards, I'm just not gonna waste my money on something that can't possibly bring return on investment.

I appreciate input from members like you, avssuc, RtJ, and many others who cannot simply accept the middling status of the Wings. Even the "fan-boy" supporters and optimists have to pause and consider your concerns, frustration, and suggestions for improvement.

A thought about those "supporting" the DRW. Many (like myself) probably feel caught on the fence regarding our attitude toward the team. As much as I relate to the insight describing our lack of real strength, I also enjoy following a hockey team I can call my own. I get attached to players very easily. People in general do not dream far outside their small realm. It's like the debates here over Ott, Jurco, Pulkkinen, Smith, Tatar, Abdelkader...we're kind of trapped in this construct of Holland's imagination and there's no alternative.

Remember the protests in Montreal over hiring an anglophone head coach? http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/french-language-protesters-rally-outside-bell-centre-1.750338 The action of this few hundred I think was part of bringing a change eventually. There should be an organized statement made by discontented Detroit fans. Not necessarily a physical protest but a way to reach Illich publicly.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Red Wings gate receipts have dropped 20% since 2013-14. When we start consistently missing the playoffs they will drop even further. New Jersey generates $30-32 million in a year in gate receipts without playoff appearances. So if we end up being in roughly the same area as far as gate receipts go that's a 45% drop in gate receipts from what we saw in the 2013-14 season.

It's tough to spend to the cap when your gate receipts are tanking. This is precisely why I wanted to trade guys like Howard, Abby and Helm. It's why I wanted to use a compliance buyout on Mule. They don't make any real difference in terms of total wins and losses and certainly don't do anything to justify their cap hit over a replacement player. It's flat out awful cap management. Revenues have been more or less flat since 2008-09 so you see no real way to grow revenues with a bad hockey team. In fact it's shrinking and will continue to do so when the team misses the playoffs on a consistent basis.

Teams that are competitive are killing it financially. The Penguins have generated nearly a 300% increase in revenues over the past decade. They blow Detroit away in revenue generated. Tampa has generated a nearly 50% increase in revenues in just four years and could surpass Detroit in the near future once we start missing the playoffs.

These are both smaller markets in order to prove the point. I have no idea what an Uber driver has to do with anything so I'll just move on.

 

[Dotter]

Was using Uber to simplify things to help you process how business management works in a nutshell.

Like I've said numerous times already, Mike I. isn't a billionaire because he's business inept. It's hard for folks to conceive, from a business standpoint, you don't pull the plug when your business is ranking in 100s of millions with little cost due to back success. The consecutive playoff streak is a big part of that.

Again I ask you, why are you throwing away 100s of millions to appease a small number of vocal fans?

EDIT:

Also wanted to add, from a business standpoint, the club will gain no financial advantage of tanking before moving to a new billion dollar arena. They are not going to ice AHL and NHL rejects to open an new arena.

 

[Claypool]

Was using Uber to simplify things to help you process how business management works in a nutshell.

Like I've said numerous times already, Mike I. isn't a billionaire because he's business inept. It's hard for folks to convince, from a business standpoint, you don't pull the plug when your business is ranking in billions with little cost due to back success. The consecutive playoff streak is a big part of that.

Again I ask you, why are you throwing away billions to appease a small number of vocal fans?

Two, maybe three, playoff home games a year isn't worth keeping the streak going from a business perspective. Illitch can make more money in a single deep playoff run than the last three years combined. Given how close all the teams are in the league right now making the playoffs isn't even a guarantee. Like you said, he's not business inept, so why would he think this is a sound financial strategy?

This idea that ownership is forcing Holland to keep this playoff streak alive for purely financial gain is a pitiful one.

 

[Dotter]

Two, maybe three, playoff home games a year isn't worth keeping the streak going from a business perspective. Illitch can make more money in a single deep playoff run than the last three years combined. Given how close all the teams are in the league right now making the playoffs isn't even a guarantee. Like you said, he's not business inept, so why would he think this is a sound financial strategy?

This idea that ownership is forcing Holland to keep this playoff streak alive for purely financial gain is a pitiful one.

Well lets see... selling 20,000 tickets per game at $133 per pop + beer and merch sales vs selling 11,000 tickets per game @ $89 per pop + less beer and merch sales.

That's about $2 million per regular season per game LOSS....

In 3 years, that's about a QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLAR LOSS. That's without playing 1 single playoff game.
soooo... ummm, yeah.

 

[jkutswings]

And yet many businesses have gone out of business for being too safe and not growing to stay alive.

I understand that sports are a different animal, but despite the current profits, the odds of the current approach being perpetually viable are pretty low, so sooner or later SOMETHING will probably change.

I just hope it's not the next generation of Illitchs turning things into a bare-bones tax write-off. That's the one approach I think we could all agree would be awful.

 

[Dotter]

And yet many businesses have gone out of business for being too safe and not growing to stay alive.

I understand that sports are a different animal, but despite the current profits, the odds of the current approach being perpetually viable are pretty low, so sooner or later SOMETHING will probably change.

I just hope it's not the next generation of Illitchs turning things into a bare-bones tax write-off. That's the one approach I think we could all agree would be awful.

Doubtful. The DRWs are in a great hockey market and it'll be too easy for them to turn it around and make big money in a relatively short period of time after the cash cow ends.

Draft a few Crosby, Toews and McDavids and within 3 to 5 years watch the crowd come back in droves. Right now it's not financially beneficial to burn it all down.

 

[BinCookin]

Red Wings gate receipts have dropped 20% since 2013-14. When we start consistently missing the playoffs they will drop even further. New Jersey generates $30-32 million in a year in gate receipts without playoff appearances. So if we end up being in roughly the same area as far as gate receipts go that's a 45% drop in gate receipts from what we saw in the 2013-14 season.

It's tough to spend to the cap when your gate receipts are tanking. This is precisely why I wanted to trade guys like Howard, Abby and Helm. It's why I wanted to use a compliance buyout on Mule. They don't make any real difference in terms of total wins and losses and certainly don't do anything to justify their cap hit over a replacement player. It's flat out awful cap management. Revenues have been more or less flat since 2008-09 so you see no real way to grow revenues with a bad hockey team. In fact it's shrinking and will continue to do so when the team misses the playoffs on a consistent basis.

Teams that are competitive are killing it financially. The Penguins have generated nearly a 300% increase in revenues over the past decade. They blow Detroit away in revenue generated. Tampa has generated a nearly 50% increase in revenues in just four years and could surpass Detroit in the near future once we start missing the playoffs.

These are both smaller markets in order to prove the point. I have no idea what an Uber driver has to do with anything so I'll just move on.

Why are you using %'ages? It skews everything.

DRW 2005-2015 ( Basically 100 --> 137 Million)
Penguins 2005-2015 ( Basically 70 --> 150 Million) (I dont include the year they win the cup (178Mil) since its about a 20-25Mil spike! (notice same on Detroit's cup)

The way i see the numbers is.. Pittsburgh suckage to good brings them more inline with Detroits profits as opposed to "blowing them out of the water"

Two, maybe three, playoff home games a year isn't worth keeping the streak going from a business perspective. Illitch can make more money in a single deep playoff run than the last three years combined. Given how close all the teams are in the league right now making the playoffs isn't even a guarantee. Like you said, he's not business inept, so why would he think this is a sound financial strategy?

This idea that ownership is forcing Holland to keep this playoff streak alive for purely financial gain is a pitiful one.

Its not about the playoff money. Its about the ~30-40 Mil a year drop in ticket receipts due to forced ticket cost reduction once the team has nothing to provide for a few years.

Well lets see... selling 20,000 tickets per game at $133 per pop + beer and merch sales vs selling 11,000 tickets per game @ $89 per pop + less beer and merch sales.

That's about $2 million per regular season per game LOSS....

In 3 years, that's about a QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLAR LOSS. That's without playing 1 single playoff game.
soooo... ummm, yeah.

I dont agree they would lose that much, but basically yes, its the daily loss in money that would hurt!



I should additionally note.... looking up the revenue of several teams.... on ice performance seems to have little influence on the revenue of most teams. This should indicate we could rebuild with very little loss in profits!
See Buffalo revenue!

 

[Dotter]

I dont agree they would lose that much, but basically yes, its the daily loss in money that would hurt!

That's gross loss. If they spend less to the cap, or spend cap minimum, the gross loss would go down. Still a huge loss, though.

 

[Claypool]

Its not about the playoff money. Its about the ~30-40 Mil a year drop in ticket receipts due to forced ticket cost reduction once the team has nothing to provide for a few years.

I think anyone that suggests the current state of the team comes from some ownership mandate needs to see a doctor right away.

 

[Dotter]

I think anyone that suggests the current state of the team comes from some ownership mandate needs to see a doctor right away.

The current state of the team is from drafting late. They draft late because they win too much. They win too much because there is no immediate financial benefit in going into full tank mode by forcing an unnatural tank so they can draft top 3 for a stretch of years.

 

[SoupNazi]

We're far, far, far off the original topic, which was at best a very dubious subject for a thread.