Williams, Kopitar, Gaborik 4 goals total last 13 games

[kingsfan]

And your hearts and flowers scenario is based on picking a player (Thornton) that really isn't giving his team what it needs and has never won jack.

Just as screwed as if he takes $9M for 8 seasons, only if he takes $72M the Kings will have very few options to figure something else out.

Whether or not Thornton has won anything is irrelevant to your entire line of posting. You claim Kopitar may very well drop off significantly by the time he's 33-34. I'm showing you a similar player who is still producing at that age. Kopitar has the ability to be a winner in the playoffs until Chokin' Joe, that should only add to Kopitar's value.

And no, LA will not be "just as screwed." LA CAN win now and over the next few years. The team in place has shown they can win in the playoffs. You have no clue what will happen in 2022-2023, nor do you have any guarantee whatsoever that Kopitar will not still be a 65-80 point top line two-way centre at 33-34 or even later.

 

[KINGS17]

Whether or not Thornton has won anything is irrelevant to your entire line of posting. You claim Kopitar may very well drop off significantly by the time he's 33-34. I'm showing you a similar player who is still producing at that age. Kopitar has the ability to be a winner in the playoffs until Chokin' Joe, that should only add to Kopitar's value.

And no, LA will not be "just as screwed." LA CAN win now and over the next few years. The team in place has shown they can win in the playoffs. You have no clue what will happen in 2022-2023, nor do you have any guarantee whatsoever that Kopitar will not still be a 65-80 point top line two-way centre at 33-34 or even later.

He is barely this now in terms of points scored. That's how I suppose he won't be that in 5 years from now. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Now, if Kopitar takes less money and term, the Kings can do a lot of scoring by committee by adding the pieces around Kopitar that will be required to contend long term.

If he gets greedy (I don't think he will), the Kings are screwed.

 

[kingsfan]

He is barely this now. That's how I suppose he won't be that in 5 years from now. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Now, if Kopitar takes less money and term, the Kings can do a lot of scoring by committee by adding the pieces around Kopitar that will be required to contend long term.

If he gets greedy (I don't think he will), the Kings are screwed.

Again, skewing matters to suit your needs. Career wise, Kopitar has been a 75 point guy. He is current 27. But yeah, let's say he's barely a 65 point guy now because he's down slightly in his production. There's no chance he rebounds huh? He's 27, we all know the odds are pretty strong he's got several more 75-ish point seasons in his future barring any injuries. If you want to think Kopitar is on the down swing at 27, go ahead, you are in the minority.

 

[KINGS17]

Again, skewing matters to suit your needs. Career wise, Kopitar has been a 75 point guy. He is current 27. But yeah, let's say he's barely a 65 point guy now because he's down slightly in his production. There's no chance he rebounds huh? He's 27, we all know the odds are pretty strong he's got several more 75-ish point seasons in his future barring any injuries. If you want to think Kopitar is on the down swing at 27, go ahead, you are in the minority.

It's been shown over and over again, by using numerous players as examples, that these "rebounds" seldom occur. Kopitar is entering a phase of his career where his numbers will likely decline. He will enter his next deal when he is 29 years of age. Things usually don't get better from that age on.

I'm not in the minority, as if that matters anyway. Kopitar, in terms of offensive production, is undeniably on the downswing. Right now it's a matter of trying to figure out how long the downswing will last before he is kind of done as an effective offensive centerman.

 

[TopT]

It's been shown over and over again, by using numerous players as examples, that these "rebounds" seldom occur. Kopitar is entering a phase of his career where his numbers will likely decline. He will enter his next deal when he is 29 years of age. Things usually don't get better from that age on.

I'm not in the minority, as if that matters anyway. Kopitar, in terms of offensive production, is undeniably on the downswing. Right now it's a matter of trying to figure out how long the downswing will last before he is kind of done as an effective offensive centerman.

I hope you dont mind I will save this post for later. And please dont call me a smartass when I do

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This is about the part where I remind everyone that Ryan Getzlaf had a FIFTY SEVEN point season a few years back...and unless he's a zombie, I don't think he's dead. People can just have off years without it being a sign of decline. I'm starting to think Richards has spooked everyone into thinking a player going through a slump is a death knell.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's been shown over and over again, by using numerous players as examples, that these "rebounds" seldom occur. Kopitar is entering a phase of his career where his numbers will likely decline. He will enter his next deal when he is 29 years of age. Things usually don't get better from that age on.

I'm not in the minority, as if that matters anyway. Kopitar, in terms of offensive production, is undeniably on the downswing. Right now it's a matter of trying to figure out how long the downswing will last before he is kind of done as an effective offensive centerman.

Oh lord, that's a reach and you know it. Undeniably? He's right back on his career pace after a slow start...

Edit: since Jan 1st, 17 points in 19 games, a .895 PPG which would be 73 points over a full season or exactly on his career pace. Undeniably dead, indeed. People are just looking at his slow start (ignoring the upper body injury that put him out too) and going "this is his worst year ever" while ignoring both context and facts. If he keeps that up the rest of the season, he'd finish with 68 points.

 

[santiclaws]

NHL 5-on-5 scoring rates, by age:

On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp -- they hit 80% at age 31, 70% at age 32-33, and 60% at age 35.

Peak scoring age for the vast majority of NHL players is about 24 - 25. This has been known for many, many years. Do some players drop off slower or even have their best seasons at 30 or beyond? Sure. But those players are a very, very small minority.

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/13/5500522/nhl-scoring-stats-rates-age-analysis

 

[KINGS17]

I hope you dont mind I will save this post for later. And please dont call me a smartass when I do

Hey, I hope we are all pleasantly surprised. The odds are against it, and Dean should prepare accordingly.

 

[Arrhizal]

Wanna go another round? Right now I'm just carrying you in this fight. Now you're laying on the ropes. Time to throw in the towel.

Lol, what an utterly lame statement. Not unexpected from a guy that gave himself the title "smartest in the room". :barf:

 

[KINGS17]

Oh lord, that's a reach and you know it. Undeniably? He's right back on his career pace after a slow start...

Edit: since Jan 1st, 17 points in 19 games, a .895 PPG which would be 73 points over a full season or exactly on his career pace. Undeniably dead, indeed. People are just looking at his slow start (ignoring the upper body injury that put him out too) and going "this is his worst year ever" while ignoring both context and facts. If he keeps that up the rest of the season, he'd finish with 68 points.

See, I expect him to still be very productive, just not 70-points productive. The context is correct as Kopitar will be 30 years old sooner rather than later.

 

[KINGS17]

Lol, what an utterly lame statement. Not unexpected from a guy that gave himself the title "smartest in the room". :barf:

That's for Dean, not me. A little jab at Herby when he and I weren't seeing eye to eye on what Dean was doing quite some time ago, but you take it as you will.

I pretty much showed that Doughty was not overpaid on his 2nd deal compared to Kopitar. And the kid was being a smart ass.

 

[Asheru]

So wait -- the story goes that Kopitar was overpaid on his second contract, so now that the salary cap has risen much, much higher than it was back then, he'll have to take a major discount now? So laughable. Lombardi does not think this way. Kopitar is now a proven center and a proven winner. Lombardi did what he needed to do to secure his #1C long term before, and he'll do it again.

He is barely this now in terms of points scored. That's how I suppose he won't be that in 5 years from now. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Now, if Kopitar takes less money and term, the Kings can do a lot of scoring by committee by adding the pieces around Kopitar that will be required to contend long term.

If he gets greedy (I don't think he will), the Kings are screwed.

If you want shorter term, you're going to get a higher cap hit. It wouldn't surprise me if Kopi took a bit of a discount in exchange for term, but you're not going to get both.

Players in their 30s tend to have lower point totals, yes. But you simply do not find even 34 year old players of Kopitar's caliber running around free agency. Nor does Carter have the ability to do the jobs of two men. Losing him would make us screwed. Other contracts can go.

Kopitar was molded into a magnificent two-way center instead of one who puts point totals first, and he fits the Kings' style to a T. There is a life cycle to every window of contention. If you want to gut our forward depth and send the Kings back to the dark ages too soon, you let him walk. Lombardi is way too smart to let that happen.

We have the great luxury of having both a true #1C and a #1 D. You make sure those are locked up, and pinch pennies elsewhere. Frankly, we could move a lot of other players for a pretty sweet return before we could afford to let Kopi go. So get on board with your hero GM. I am.

 

[KINGS17]

So wait -- the story goes that Kopitar was overpaid on his second contract, so now that the salary cap has risen much, much higher than it was back then, he'll have to take a major discount now? So laughable. Lombardi does not think this way. Kopitar is now a proven center and a proven winner. Lombardi did what he needed to do to secure his #1C long term before, and he'll do it again.



If you want shorter term, you're going to get a higher cap hit. It wouldn't surprise me if Kopi took a bit of a discount in exchange for term, but you're not going to get both.

Players in their 30s tend to have lower point totals, yes. But you simply do not find even 34 year old players of Kopitar's caliber running around free agency. Nor does Carter have the ability to do the jobs of two men. Losing him would make us screwed. Other contracts can go.

Kopitar was molded into a magnificent two-way center instead of one who puts point totals first, and he fits the Kings' style to a T. There is a life cycle to every window of contention. If you want to gut our forward depth and send the Kings back to the dark ages too soon, you let him walk. Lombardi is way to smart to let that happen.

We have the great luxury of having both a true #1C and a #1 D. You make sure those are locked up, and pinch pennies elsewhere. Frankly, we could move a lot of other players for a pretty sweet return before we could afford to let Kopi go. So get on board with your hero GM. I am.

So, you have looked into the future and know what caliber of player Kopitar will be when he hits 34 years of age? Good to know that he isn't going to lose a step ever, and he will be as effective as he has always been as a defensive centerman well into his mid-thirtes and beyond.

 

[Arrhizal]

So you can post what the future holds for Kopitar but others can't?

 

[kingsfan]

It's been shown over and over again, by using numerous players as examples, that these "rebounds" seldom occur. Kopitar is entering a phase of his career where his numbers will likely decline. He will enter his next deal when he is 29 years of age. Things usually don't get better from that age on.

I'm not in the minority, as if that matters anyway. Kopitar, in terms of offensive production, is undeniably on the downswing. Right now it's a matter of trying to figure out how long the downswing will last before he is kind of done as an effective offensive centerman.

Undeniably on the down swing? A one year drop to 65 points (current pace over 82 games) from his more usual career numbers is a down swing?

 

[kingsfan]

So, you have looked into the future and know what caliber of player Kopitar will be when he hits 34 years of age? Good to know that he isn't going to lose a step ever, and he will be as effective as he has always been as a defensive centerman well into his mid-thirtes and beyond.

So you can post what the future holds for Kopitar but others can't?

Exactly. Don't question his assertion that Kopitar likely will have a drop off by age 33-34 and don't dare post your own predictions either.

 

[KINGS17]

So you can post what the future holds for Kopitar but others can't?

No, feel free. I simply said the odds are against it, and it has been shown that is the case time and again. See the chart above on declining offensive production as a player ages.

 

[KINGS17]

Exactly. Don't question his assertion that Kopitar likely will have a drop off by age 33-34 and don't dare post your own predictions either.

Exactly where did I make this assertion? I said the odds are against Kopitar having a large rebound in offensive production. Get used to the idea of him being a 60-point a season player.

 

[TopT]

Undeniably on the down swing? A one year drop to 65 points (current pace over 82 games) from his more usual career numbers is a down swing?

current pace over 79 games. Which makes it an even bigger joke

 

[Arrhizal]

And let me add again, projected top league scorer is at 89 points.

 

[KINGS17]

And let me add again, projected top league scorer is at 89 points.

That's fair.

 

[YP44]

Undeniably on the down swing? A one year drop to 65 points (current pace over 82 games) from his more usual career numbers is a down swing?

downswing = richards
one below par year = kopitar.
I aint worried.
Plus below average for kopitar is better than 90% of the league (completely made up percentage do not ask me to justify it)

 

[kingsfan]

Exactly where did I make this assertion? I said the odds are against Kopitar having a large rebound in offensive production. Get used to the idea of him being a 60-point a season player.

Right here.

You give Kopitar a max contract with declining performance (mostly indicated by the number of shots on goal he is getting this season), and he will be highly overpaid by the time he hits 33-34 years of age, with 3 or 4 years remaining on his deal.

The only way he's 'highly overpaid' by age 33-34 is with a drop off.

 

[KINGS17]

Right here.



The only way he's 'highly overpaid' by age 33-34 is with a drop off.

...and then I went of to say over and over again that the odds are against him being as productive at that age.

Whatever, you found something good for you. If you think you gave people something to think about, because in your opinion he will be worth the 8 years and $72M and his production won't decline, more power to you.