Munchausen said:
Why? Simple. Because their next offer will be worse for the PA, no matter if they go for impasse or not in the future. You're dreaming if you think the league will offer a bigger de-linked cap with better sub components to the deal from now on. The 42.5M is history. The players were foolish to refuse it and they'll have to live with the consequences. They'll never see such a high number again. This thing is going down.
The most likely scenario is the league coming back in March with a lower cap in a tweaked system, say 35M, linked to revenues, maybe with more profit sharing with the players to show they're willing to compromise on what they can afford to compromise. Then Goodenow refuses, states the offer is ridiculous, etc. The NHL comes back with an other proposal. The NHLPA counters, etc. (basically all the same things we've seen from the begining of this lockout).
Then if neither the PA or the league has come up with a solution to get the parties closer by September, the owners make a final offer, the NHLPA rejects it, they decide we're done since this is going nowhere again, the lockout's over, the owners impose their last offer as the new CBA and re-open the league. Likely then, players strike and file a claim for unfair labor practice or decertify. Replacement players are brought in, etc. etc. etc. and the legal mess begins. I'm sure the owners don't want to arrive to that point, but they will if it's the only choice left. One thing is for sure. The owners will not lose an other entire season again. They'll take whatever means necessary to re-open under a system where they no longer lose money.
I see it a little different ...The minute that the NHL decides to go backwards and make the numbers for the CAP smaller .. The NHLPA will say ..Okay take it to court you are no longer bargaining in "Good Faith" as far as the NHLPA are concerned .. At which time the NHL can declare Impasse and the process begins ..As you said , and everyone knows full well that if you don't take a high number you certainly are not going to accept a lower one ..
The Danger on Behalf of the NHL is that it is going to put their fate into the hands of the Courts and they will rule if 35 M and Linkage is in good faith considering the previous offer was 42.5 and no linkage .. The NHL will say revenues will go down ..and the courts will say first
Define Revenue (as neither side has even sat down and discussed that yet, or drawn up what is included and not)..
Then present the court with facts that REVENUE has gone down not beliefs that it will go down .. The Court will say I have your 2.1 Bil Super Audit Levitt report and nothing else here .. The burden of proof will be the NHL responsibility to prove decreased revenue and with a lockout in effect how can they have any evidence that Fans will go away they are locked out like the Players currently.
In Fact the NHLPA will say that 80% of the popular vote has sided with the NHL in this dispute .. Leaving only 20% left for the NHLPA side .. So the courts could say that a 20% decrease is realistically all the NHL should expect it to drop .. and even then that does not guarantee that some of that 20% will not return to watch hockey .. Point being there is no evidence other then expectations of Revenues and as such no
SMOKING GUN ..So to speak .. You can't prove something that hasn't happened yet .. The Courts could say that sure the Revenue will go done for a few seasons but then it could bottom out and rise again for the final 4 years of this CBA, possibly even higher then the current 2.1 Bil of today once all these fancy new rules you are talking about go into effect ..
I also believe the Courts will say if you want
linkage then the Courts are going to order its own independent Audit of the Owners books to determine if the Levitt report is accurate .. So if some owners have now hidden Revenue or not provided the Levitt report with accurate information
** BIG TROUBLE ** for the NHL ..then NHLPA is going to get what it wants the books opened and true (trusted results) Financial Info to come out. Imagine if in that process another 500 Mil is discovered in Revenue not reported, then that would offset any Revenue going down theory and Hard Cap number and clearly put the NHLPA in the drivers seat for refusing any deal with linkage .. The courts will not authorize any CBA that includes linkage without first being 100% sure of the facts and accuracy. The NHLPA does not have to spend a million dollars doing its own audit of the books . Its more then happy to let the US Internal Revenue service go over the 30 Owners books with a fine tooth comb to validate accurate reporting..IMO ..This in fact could work both ways .. once the books are verified and if the Owners and levitt report accurate then the NHLPA can no longer play the
** TRUST ** card and should be more then happy to take Linkage once the % (percentage) of Salaries to Revenue is agreed upon ..
So I think your suggested strategy could really backfire on the NHL .. I think the best the NHL could do IMO ..Is hold firm on its 42.5 Cap or offer some gravy train sub clause like drop UFA a couple of years to offset a lower Cap number .. or any other sub-issue like Arbitration etc .. That at least then gives the impression that you are at least trying to get a deal and by definition Good Faith Bargaining ..