Will COVID affect NHL in 15 years?

[Tom Polakis]

I wouldn't dismiss the OP so quickly, I feel like some of you aren't reading his post(I suspect replies like "it won't affect them in 5 years" think he's asking if we're still going to be in COVID lockdown in 5 years, which he's not). Would-be future NHL players would have been playing their first or valuable developmental years in this 1-2 year span where they will probably go without, it's an interesting subject. And as we know most NHLers started very young, if a would-be NHLer missed his first two years he might have never made it.

All speculative of course and we won't know the impact till it occurs so there isn't much to discuss but it does provide some food for thought.

At least somebody read the post and gave it some thought, anyway.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I think the new CBA is 6 years long and I do recall reading that article that says Bettman is worried about stressing the system with a flat cap for the entire 6 years. Personally, I think the outstanding balance of a potential $2.5B overpayment after 20/21 is something the owners did not predict back in July. That's about $80M per team each owner has to fork out and get paid back in 2-3 years or more with no return on investment. Bruins owner seems to be the leader in terms of not liking this deal and he has other owners on his side

Players need to engage on that cause at the end of the day, we look back in 5 or 6 years and the 50/50 split evens out. Players want the Owners to fork out way more than what is coming in the next 12 months. It's suppose to be a partner ship and a 50/50 split as the #1 rule. Escrow is meant to bridge the gap by 10% or less. Not 50% or more of discrepancies in projected revenue

Ya, I agree and good summary. I think they will likely put some kind of shortened season together, probably without fans in many cities for at least half the season. A few teams might run into big financial problems and will be forced to sell to new owners. Hopefully new owners will be much richer and have deeper pockets as we have seen new owners replace struggling owners in the past only to have the same problems a few years later.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Ya, I agree and good summary. I think they will likely put some kind of shortened season together, probably without fans in many cities for at least half the season. A few teams might run into big financial problems and will be forced to sell to new owners. Hopefully new owners will be much richer and have deeper pockets as we seen new owners replace struggling owners in the past only to have the same problems a few years later.

I think they will be fine financially because they are all billionaires. However, nobody likes to lend that kind of money out with no investment return. $80M on average for every owner is a lot of money in 12 months. I think $80M is at the high end and might be $50M but still. It's money they pay above what is coming in.

I wonder if fans will allowed to some degree starting in lets say Feb or March? 2-3 months of vaccine rollouts in North America.. December, January, and part of February? NHL and NHLPA can't plan for that but it's possible.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I think they will be fine financially because they are all billionaires. However, nobody likes to lend that kind of money out with no investment return. $80M on average for every owner is a lot of money in 12 months. I think $80M is at the high end and might be $50M but still. It's money they pay above what is coming in.

I wonder if fans will allowed to some degree starting in lets say Feb or March? 2-3 months of vaccine rollouts in North America.. December, January, and part of February? NHL and NHLPA can't plan for that but it's possible.

I think its a couple of months for the first wave of vaccinations (health care workers, LTC, etc.). Remember vaccinations won't start to mid December. So, its probably more like April for a large number of folks to have received their first shot, and more like May for the 2nd. That's my conclusion or best guess anyhow. Hopefully its faster.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think its a couple of months for the first wave of vaccinations (health care workers, LTC, etc.). Remember vaccinations won't start to mid December. So, its probably more like April for a large number of folks to have received their first shot, and more like May for the 2nd. That's my conclusion or best guess anyhow. Hopefully its faster.

I wonder though.... Stats show that people over 50 are at higher risk and all these shutdowns are mainly for them. I don't have the death totals for people under 50 but that's got to be very very low. Anybody have over and under Covid stats at age 50?

I believe they will roll it out to seniors and health care workers first. Then what does the governments do? Do they open things up? Lets face it, I think they want to open things up so people get back to work but it has to make sense. If seniors or a large % of seniors are vaccinated by February, what happens then? Something to think about but it's all guess work. Nobody knows!

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

i'm hearing the class of 2034 is doing very well at coloring and putting away, which should translate well when they're drafted.

Strong naptime upside potential too

 

[Treb]

I wouldn't dismiss the OP so quickly, I feel like some of you aren't reading his post(I suspect replies like "it won't affect them in 5 years" think he's asking if we're still going to be in COVID lockdown in 5 years, which he's not). Would-be future NHL players would have been playing their first or valuable developmental years in this 1-2 year span where they will probably go without, it's an interesting subject. And as we know most NHLers started very young, if a would-be NHLer missed his first two years he might have never made it.

All speculative of course and we won't know the impact till it occurs so there isn't much to discuss but it does provide some food for thought.

The players to be drafted in 15 years are currently 3 years old. I don't think these guys development will be impacted at all by Covid as most start skating at 4-6 years old and really learning hockey at like 10 years old.

It impacts the draft from 2021 to 2032 more than it does the 2032-2035.

To me, the highest impact will be from 2022-2026 as they possibly lost a big development year.

I don't think anyone relevant decided to quit hockey because of Covid. Maybe some random low-level player, but anyone with talent? No.

 

[WaveRaven]

I bet some players will always wear masks.

 

[HugoSimon]

15 years is odd to target for affected drafts given those kids would be 3 right now and probably wouldn't start organized hockey for at minimum 2-3 years.

Unless hockey runs in families, and entire families are giving up on the sport, because they're sick of the costs, lost work, etc.

Hell we don't even know where the Canadian dollar may be headed. This might be the event that finally brings Canada back to where it belongs in economic terms. Alberta's oil is more worthless than ever. The housing bubble is likely done etc. We have a mass of boomers leaving the economy, and very few millennials are set up to take their place.

I get people think the last year was about lost socialization, but the reality is the world economy is gonna suffer, as it already was.

We have 15 different problems which are still persisting, and the hope was new industries etc would counter balance that effect.

I'll never get this fantastical idea that depth levels aren't exactly as high as we all know they are.

At some point the monies will run out.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Unless hockey runs in families, and entire families are giving up on the sport, because they're sick of the costs, lost work, etc.

Hell we don't even know where the Canadian dollar may be headed. This might be the event that finally brings Canada back to where it belongs in economic terms. Alberta's oil is more worthless than ever. The housing bubble is likely done etc. We have a mass of boomers leaving the economy, and very few millennials are set up to take their place.

I get people think the last year was about lost socialization, but the reality is the world economy is gonna suffer, as it already was.

We have 15 different problems which are still persisting, and the hope was new industries etc would counter balance that effect.

I'll never get this fantastical idea that depth levels aren't exactly as high as we all know they are.

At some point the monies will run out.

If you think COVID is the reason for Canada's problems then you haven't been properly living in Canada for the last 10 years. It's been spiralling regardless, the east coast has been ignored by the government for so long that it's borderline collapsed in favour of the west. COVID might've sped it up but it also sped up the rest of NA's decline so Canada is probably not going to fall out of sync in terms of garbage economies.

 

[habamillions]

If anything the players in the next 2 drafts will be the ones affected because they cant play to prove they are worth being drafted.

 

[Mikeshane]

Maybe they'll think:
"This lock down has been so awful I appreciate hockey even more and I'm now inspired to work even harder at it".

 

[M2Beezy]

I read somewhere the 2032 draft is already looking pretty deep so I dont think itll be an issue IMO

 

[hirawl]

We simply won't be able to tell. The game will be faster and the players more skilled than ever before. With some generational talent there.

 

[Didalee Hed]

I read somewhere the 2032 draft is already looking pretty deep so I dont think itll be an issue IMO

You have grown up so much

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Most won't even remember this after 2 years from now.
It will be just another virus like others before it, just like influensa.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Strong naptime upside potential too

Weak defense group, how are you going to stop forwards if you're 2'5 and 30 pounds?

 

[HabsDood]

The answer is no

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

Weak defense group, how are you going to stop forwards if you're 2'5 and 30 pounds?

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

Most won't even remember this after 2 years from now.
It will be just another virus like others before it, just like influensa.

Except for y’know...the people who have lost loved ones from this and/or their businesses.

Seriously...do you have the memory of a goldfish?? People are absolutely going to be remembering and talking about this for quite awhile. If not the rest of their lives...

 

[bobholly39]

I think whoever is up for the 2021 and maybe 2022 draft will be most affected. Players who are missing their 17 or 18yr old junior years right before draft (due to so many leagues being shut down) will make a big difference.

Lafreniere is great - but if you completely wipe out his 2018-2019 season - that's pretty impactful on his development. And that's a very special player, who probably overcomes it. But the 10th overall pick - or the 30th - probably a lot harder.

 

[tiburon12]

I think this is a good question that is worth monitoring, but the boring and most accurate answer is that we don't know.

We don't know the long term effects of the virus or the genetic implications beyond that one baby being born with antibodies.

 

[Treb]

I think this is a good question that is worth monitoring, but the boring and most accurate answer is that we don't know.

We don't know the long term effects of the virus or the genetic implications beyond that one baby being born with antibodies.

The baby being born with temporary antibodies was pretty much a given, that's how babies' temporary immunity works. I don't see this pandemic having genetic implications.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Depends on how we respond when it inevitably mutates.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

One of the only positive sides of COVID is that it seems to have affected things fairly equally across the board.

Hockey is suffering, but so are many other team sports.